Red Shirts Plan To Paralyse Bangkok, Topple Thai Government

[Spee]

so for those who like numbers, to amass 1 million protestors guessing that there are already 120k here

Numbers is just a game that both sides play up to the hilt. One side overestimates the number to keep up the "hip hip hooray" aspect of the protest. The other side overestimates the number to justify a response of overwhelming suppressive force to be released on command. What bothers me the most is that neither side seems to be overly interested in adherence to the Thai Constitution, one person-one vote representative democracy or anything else related to a prospering, civil and free society.

[Bedrockguesthouse]

so for those who like numbers, to amass 1 million protestors guessing that there are already 120k here

Numbers is just a game that both sides play up to the hilt. One side overestimates the number to keep up the "hip hip hooray" aspect of the protest. The other side overestimates the number to justify a response of overwhelming suppressive force to be released on command. What bothers me the most is that neither side seems to be overly interested in adherence to the Thai Constitution, one person-one vote representative democracy or anything else related to a prospering, civil and free society.

Thats a young democracy for you steve. I think they are trying to find their way guess it takes time.

cheers Mark

[brahmburgers]

Message to government officials: Stay cool.

Abhisit's government is not threatened in any real sense.

The Red Shirt rally will grow a bit more, and then subside.

Let the Reds shake and bake and throw off some froth and frustration.

Then they'll go back to where they reside.

Security forces: Stay calm. That's your smartest option.

[mrtoad]

You couldn't find any moral authority in this cast of thugs with an electron microscope.

Thaksin

Chalerm & sons

Chavalit

Jakrpopob

Jatuporn

Suporn

Veera

Arisman

Ungpakorn (whom I like, but is clearly not ready for prime time)

Other than the last person on the list, it looks like a casting of Crimewatch.

[khunjamespittman]

You left out why the elections failed to seat a government, a pretty important detail mind you.

More or less the same people that now run the current government were responsible for that elections going amiss. The reason why was clear to anyone, if you can't win elections by going to the polls, you sabotage them and hope the militairy steps in..

Hmmmmm There is a point you have there ....

But then that opens up so much more ancient history such as why did Thaksin after having the largest win in history suddenly dissolve parliament (which is the basic fact that led to ALL of this mess). The answer being was to try to cover his company's sale to Temasek and the soon to happen disbanding of TRT. The Dems certainly weren't looking for a coup out of it. I think they were looking for Thaksin to actually step down and quit politics like he promised. Those of us that have watched Thai politics closely for the last 10 years know better than to trust a Thaksin promise by now, don't we? Thaksin was beset by scandal after scandal and was trying to use the polling booth to whitewash it. The Dems (and everyone else) knew it was a very short time before TRT was gone and chose not to play that game. Remember there was absolutely no reason for those snap elections Thaksin tried a ploy he thought could help him and the Democrats did the same with their No Vote run.

Typically when you are on the raolroad tracks it aint the caboose that kills you! This time the locomotive was Thaksin and the snap elections (or the sale to Temasek, or the airport scanners, or or or or )

In Parlimentary systems sometimes the PM will call elections to: 1.Re-iterate to the electorate that theystill have the confidence of parliment or 2: Attempt to re-structure or re-align the parliment members to allow the PM policies to get additional support.

No secret or nefarious reason here. Sorry conspiricy theorists.

[savepak]

The original "Million Man March" in DC didn't have nearly one million men and it went down in history.

The final number of that event, based on a complicated satellite imagery system, was 837,000 people.

I think the Thai Million Man March won't come anywhere near that total, let alone 1,000,000.

Edited March 14, 2010 by savepak

[animatic]

The last politically used SoE was by Samak when PPP decided PAD was too noisy and nosey to let alone.

They blatantly instigated Red Shirt Thuggies to travel 2k in the streets and violently attack the PAD encampment.

That is public fact.

The pictures of that march and clash are rather iconic and galvanized support AGAINST Samak, the PPP

and especially the Red shirts, as nothing but a strong arm branch of a flailing party mechanism to reinstall

Thaksin and his banned cronies.

Those guys with machetes and slingshots looked quite out of their minds, and then the bloody fight pictures,

showed how bad this was. And the pictures/vids and reports of PPP MPs actually on the stage instigating this,

and seen going along with them in the street, till the last few hundred yards, also shows this was a government

instigated riot to create a bogus State Of Emergency, and solidify power to clear out PAD.

Except the army didn't bite that rancid worm.

PAD was the barking watch dog still making loud noises to the public each time,

PPP tried to amend the charter and bring back the TRT 111. Not at that time a real threat to public safety.

The thing is this attack was so badly pulled off, with PPP MPs CAUGHT instigating it, (the drunken Reds lost the fight)

that the army refused Samaks orders to clear out PAD, because they knew HOW and WHY those orders came into being.

It was a faked and manufactured riot, not a real and naturally occurring one. A riot to change the political field

to PPP/Thaksins advantage. Similar to the totally contrived,' attempted bombing' of Thaksin by that patsy army guy...

Panlops work maybe? Thaksin wanted an SoE, because it gave him more power to control political dialog and

the nation and hold his impending greater legal issues at bay longer.

This Samak SoE miscalculation was the start of the end for PPP,

Somchai certainly, as the lame sock puppet of Thaksin, never regained the respect as PM

that Samak lost for instigating that SoE, in such an obviously vile and idiotic manner.

Why would the army consider backing a puppet government that blatantly puts in an SoE to beat up on it's own

citizens for talking endlessly against them in a public square.... vs the current situation were the talk is about

'burning down Bangkok' in "A Sea Of Flames" , 'everyone bring a bottle 2/3 filled with oil...'

'attack the countries leaders violently if you see them'. 'Throw fecal matter' about regardless of the health risks,

'beat up any one anywhere that is not on the Red side'.

The difference today is that the government doesn't have to manufacture a public state of emergency

the Redshirt leaders have done that, more than adequately, and with even greater REAL threats to public safety

by far, based on historical precident, than Samak used as an excuse for his spurious SoE.

And SoE is normally used when some force or act of nature threatens great numbers of the innocent public

beyond their control, and extraordinary measures are needed to return that public to safety.

Edited March 14, 2010 by animatic

[mrtoad]

In Parlimentary systems sometimes the PM will call elections to: 1.Re-iterate to the electorate that theystill have the confidence of parliment or 2: Attempt to re-structure or re-align the parliment members to allow the PM policies to get additional support.

No secret or nefarious reason here. Sorry conspiricy theorists.

Any government with any sense would not call elections at this point, it is likely to further fan the flames of what is already a potential fiery situation. So far, the Government is acting in the right manner, and is not being railroaded by a mob instigated a crew of thugs and criminals.

[scorecard]

You couldn't find any moral authority in this cast of thugs with an electron microscope.

Thaksin

Chalerm & sons

Chavalit

Jakrpopob

Jatuporn

Suporn

Veera

Arisman

Ungpakorn (whom I like, but is clearly not ready for prime time)

Other than the last person on the list, it looks like a casting of Crimewatch.

Agree, and there's more to add to the list:

Sae Daeng

Pallop

Sudarat

etc

And a few more points:

- Who would want this list taking up the head of ministry jobs?

- The UDD have said that if they take over the parliament they will reverse the ban on some 300 or more scaly characters. In government many of these people would end up as appointees on various boards of CAT, TOT. Thai Inter and dozens more.

Out of all of them, can you see the capability, the insight, the balance which is obvious in people like K. Korn? NO!

The list above is nothng more than frightening and would take Thailand backwards by 50 years.

Edited March 14, 2010 by scorecard

[mca]

Message to government officials: Stay cool.

This message was brought to you by The Fonz. 

[animatic]

You couldn't find any moral authority in this cast of thugs with an electron microscope.

Thaksin

Chalerm & sons

Chavalit

Jakrpopob

Jatuporn

Suporn

Veera

Arisman

Ungpakorn (whom I like, but is clearly not ready for prime time)

Other than the last person on the list, it looks like a casting of Crimewatch.

Agree, and there's more to add to the list:

Sae Daeng

Pallop

Sudarat

etc

And a few more points:

- Who would want this list taking up the head of ministry jobs?

- The UDD have said that if they take over the parliament they will reverse the ban on some 300 or more scaly characters. In government many of these people would end up as appointees on various boards of CAT, TOT. Thai Inter and dozens more.

Out of all of them, can you see the capability, the insight, the balance which is obvious in people like K. Korn? NO!

The list above is nothng more than frightening and would take Thailand backwards by 50 years.

At least 50 years...,

truly a scary thought that this mafia crew could be the next government...

[Sunderland]

It is being reported that Suthep will tomorrow discuss calling for a State of Emergency (SOE). If this happens it will be an indication that the military, who already have vast powers via the ISA, are waiting to see how Abhisit handles things.

Please excuse my ignorance, if you will, but what would a SOE do? Good? Bad?

I'm not trolling or trying to start a flame war, but I'm not sure what it would do in this case?

It is a valid question. It is a short term measure that gives the government powers above and beyond what is in the legal codes. For example, it allows emergency decrees covering searches, people congregating, restriction on travel, curfews and most importantly, allows the government to call in the military who can then work independently of the police. Under the existing ISA, the military would still have to work with the police.

Said another way, it is a legal method that allows the government to violate people's rights, but only for a short period.

Could that lead to some police actually joining the reds?

If Abhisit/Suthep choose to invoke a state of emergency they have to be very sure that they have the entire army leadership on their side as it would be the ideal opportunity for a split in the army leading to a coup.

[animatic]

Could that lead to some police actually joining the reds?

If Abhisit/Suthep choose to invoke a state of emergency they have to be very sure that they have the entire army leadership on their side as it would be the ideal opportunity for a split in the army leading to a coup.

More likely it is in reaction to police element ALREADY siding with the reds.

There is no question that some army and police are on the red side,

enough to be troublesome, maybe.

Maybe not, but wouldn't you want to play it safest?

Edited March 14, 2010 by animatic

[Scott]

Quote with no response deleted.

[swindonabroad]

upper Sukumvit Road has been a steady trickle of red coaches, pick ups, taxis and motorbikes for the past 45mins

Edited March 14, 2010 by swindonabroad

[rametindallas]

Let's not refer to people as being ignorant or being dropped on their head. It's flaming and it's not allowed. The battle lines are pretty well drawn on this forum, but people are still allowed to discuss, but let's do so in a reasonably respectful manner.

I stand corrected. My apologies Rainman.

[Ricardo]

If you live in the south or Bkk you never see Thailand as it is.

Some posters still accuse the Democrat-led coalition-government of wishing to take away ordinary peoples' right to vote, based upon a short-lived stage-discussion by the unconnected PAD a few years ago, on how to make Thailand more democratic. That's quite a reach.

But IMO it's even more of a reach to claim that the South & Bangkok aren't equally a part of Thailand, and that only Isaan or the North-West count, wouldn't you agree Robin, upon reflection ?

No one area should dominate the others, politicians like the PM should be free and safe to travel, wherever they wish within the country, free of shit-bags or murder-attempts/threats, nobody should be punished by with-holding government-funds from those areas which vote the 'wrong' way.

Even if this 'Million Man March' succeeds, in bringing a million people down to Bangkok for a few days, it still doesn't give them the right to impose their own candidate for PM on the whole country, especially if he's a convicted on-the-run crook as has now been very clearly shown in the courts.

Message to government officials: Stay cool.

This message was brought to you by The Fonz. 

Far Out ! (this message from John Denver).

One redeeming feature, of us farangs, is our sense-of-humour !

[kraxlhuber]

It's not going to work as planned.

Ok, maybe a bunch of people will show up, but the existing government will be fine after the dust settles. Have there been reports of payments for attending?

The Abhisit government is legit and decent. There's no real groundswell against him and his administration. It's another last-ditch and desperate means for an extremely selfish man to try and put his hands back on big money and absolute power.

I see the OP photo of Thaksin with the words "Thailand needs change" He's trying to copy Obama's success with that line. Yes, Thailand needs change, it needs to get good people in leadership roles, and get away from the ugly patterns of having people like Thaksin in the driver's seat. Thailand needs to change being so tolerable to treasonous people like Thaksin. It needs to change being so forgiving to Thaksin's puppets, like Sae Daeng, who toss explosives here and there.

The sooner Thailand changes from being harassed from Thaksin and his followers, the sooner Thailand can get moving forward to improving quality of life and cleaning up the environment and doing the many other things that have been put off because of the incessant hassling from Thaksin and his paid intimidators.

beware Red Shirts,

the brown shirts are already assembling,then heads will roll,

in Spain after Franco's death the slogan was written on many walls

BAJO FRANCO VIVIMOS MEJOR,

that does not apply to Toxin!!!!!

[Sunderland]

If there is a battle it will be remembered as the 'Umbrella War'.

There must be 50,000 umbrellas there. If you've ever seen an angry women with a rolling pin or brolly, then you'll know that umbrellas could well be considered as weapons of mass destruction.

[scorecard]

.........

Agree, and there's more to add to the list:

Sae Daeng

Pallop

Sudarat

etc

And a few more points:

- Who would want this list taking up the head of ministry jobs?

- The UDD have said that if they take over the parliament they will reverse the ban on some 300 or more scaly characters. In government many of these people would end up as appointees on various boards of CAT, TOT. Thai Inter and dozens more.

Out of all of them, can you see the capability, the insight, the balance which is obvious in people like K. Korn? NO!

The list above is nothng more than frightening and would take Thailand backwards by 50 years.

At least 50 years...,

truly a scary thought that this mafia crew could be the next government...

It's also true that a very large percentage of elected people from the past 50 years have joined these 'old boys clubs' for one reason only - the opportunity to get sticky fingers into massive budgets and the opportunity for nepotism etc. They have no sincere desire whatever to contribute to policy development / infrastructure development for the benefit of all Thais and in fact they have no capability or bakground to be able to do this even if they wanted to.

In many of these 'parties' you have to pay very large amounts of Baht to join - in other words you must pay to buy the opportuunity to get your fingers into budgets, opportunities to onto state boards etc.

So here's the question - are these types of people going to let the whole situation quickly change to a picture of capability and sincerity (very different types of people)?

NO! They will fight ruthlessly to maintain the old status quo.

Given time I believe the Abhisit and Korn team will generate a much better picture with a lot more capable and sincere people in the picture, and they will gain a better spread of wealth, better and equal spread of opportunites, equal justice etc., for all Thais.

But let's be realistic, it's going to be a tough battle and it's going to take time.

It's also true that the Democrats aren't squeaky clean and they also have some baggage (although probably a better picture than many other parties) and Abhisit and Korn have to walk in a minefield every day, plus they need to work with the coalition parties who are mostly incapable and lacking in sincerity.

But Abhisit can't just walk away from them, he needs their numbers to keep in the big chair.

It's also true that there are many very capable and very sincere Thais who would like to contribute, and their capabilitiy and sincerity, if tapped, would quickly take Thailand forward, for all Thais.

But right now these more capable / more sincere people are very hesitant to join and be part of what they see as gangs of ruthless leeches and thieves.

Abhsisit is no fool, he knows all of this very well, he knows he's got a monumental task ahead.

I wish him and K. Korn the very best of luck.

Edited March 14, 2010 by scorecard

[SomTumTiger]

There are no battle lines - the Reds are a distinct minority trying to exert their will on the majority. They have every right to protest peacefully. They have no right to disrupt the rights of others. As long as they stay civil, they will be free to joust at windmills (which is what they are doing, since they have no hope of changing anything).

[khunjamespittman]

In Parlimentary systems sometimes the PM will call elections to: 1.Re-iterate to the electorate that theystill have the confidence of parliment or 2: Attempt to re-structure or re-align the parliment members to allow the PM policies to get additional support.

No secret or nefarious reason here. Sorry conspiricy theorists.

Any government with any sense would not call elections at this point, it is likely to further fan the flames of what is already a potential fiery situation. So far, the Government is acting in the right manner, and is not being railroaded by a mob instigated a crew of thugs and criminals.

Sounds like you have an ego problem. Perfectly rational to correct an error of not calling for an election after the court essentially declared no confidence vote which would have required an election be held.

Let me re-iterate that name calling does not help resolve any problem. Rational negotiation between different opinions to find a workable solution is required.

Don't be part of the Problem! Be part of a Solution!

[ding]

Abhsisit is no fool, he knows all of this very well, he knows he's got a monumental task ahead.

I wish him and K. Korn the very best of luck.

Abhsisit needs to deliver for Isaan people, I would think. It is no time to let Isaan people down from now on.

[way2muchcoffee]

Perfectly rational to correct an error of not calling for an election after the court essentially declared no confidence vote which would have required an election be held.

Let me re-iterate that name calling does not help resolve any problem. Rational negotiation between different opinions to find a workable solution is required.

Don't be part of the Problem! Be part of a Solution!

If a new election was called after dissolution of the PPP and the Dems were able to form a coalition we would still be in exactly the position we are in today. The redshirts would have cried judicial coup, and the Dems would face criticism for not allowing the newly formed PTP to try to form a coalition government.

Allowing the PTP to attempt to form a coalition government was seen as the only fair approach insofar as they were the controlling party under PPP. Only the executives of PPP were banned, not the rank and file. All of the PTP members were elected MPs and they deserved a chance to form a coalition government.

Had the PTP been able to form the government with coalition partners then we would not be in the situation. They would not be crying foul now. The only reason the are crying now is because they failed in their attempt and the Dems are now in control.

Edited March 14, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[anotherpeter]

<snip> Perfectly rational to correct an error of not calling for an election after the court essentially declared no confidence vote which would have required an election be held.

Let me re-iterate that name calling does not help resolve any problem. Rational negotiation between different opinions to find a workable solution is required.

Don't be part of the Problem! Be part of a Solution!

You raise an interesting question Khun James ... DOES a no confidence vote REQUIRE that an election be held?

[anotherpeter]

There are no battle lines - the Reds are a distinct minority trying to exert their will on the majority. They have every right to protest peacefully. They have no right to disrupt the rights of others. As long as they stay civil, they will be free to joust at windmills (which is what they are doing, since they have no hope of changing anything).

I think their protests will change something ... it will bring the plight of the poor to the forefront of the Thai's minds.

So, the government have to make sure they do right by the poor. They have got another 18 months to show that they are doing this.

And the red supporters need to ALLOW them to do things in their areas. There are certainly lots of examples where the government does not get a chance to help the poort in some areas, because the red supporters chase them away.

But if the protests succeed in bringing down the government, then nothing will change and a new cycle will begin.

[hammered]

While everyone debates the pro's and cons of elections versus status quo or whether the rally will succeed or not, nobody is looking at the secret deals and contacts that are no doubt being discussed. A chnage without massive violence will be negotiated behind the scenes with everyone or at least almost everyone knowing their role in it.

Best analysis to date was in the not the nation blog. Strange a satirical take ends up being the most accurate

[jdinasia]

In Parlimentary systems sometimes the PM will call elections to: 1.Re-iterate to the electorate that theystill have the confidence of parliment or 2: Attempt to re-structure or re-align the parliment members to allow the PM policies to get additional support.

No secret or nefarious reason here. Sorry conspiricy theorists.

Any government with any sense would not call elections at this point, it is likely to further fan the flames of what is already a potential fiery situation. So far, the Government is acting in the right manner, and is not being railroaded by a mob instigated a crew of thugs and criminals.

Sounds like you have an ego problem. Perfectly rational to correct an error of not calling for an election after the court essentially declared no confidence vote which would have required an election be held.

Let me re-iterate that name calling does not help resolve any problem. Rational negotiation between different opinions to find a workable solution is required.

Don't be part of the Problem! Be part of a Solution!

The solution is simple and your argument of "essentially declared a no confidence vote" is bogus. PPP could have dissolved parliament and called for a new election when they had the power. They didn't. The proximal cause of this mess is Thaksin calling for those early elections to try and protect his business deal with Temasek and to protect TRT. He had an overwhelming majority in Parliament but wanted the new elections to whitewash his crimes. Those elections failed. The Dem's get to run the country for the next year and in that time hopefully they can assure that the next elections will be fair. Eliminate the vote buying. Assure that ballots are secret. Assure that people can campaign freely for office anywhere in the country etc.

Yes ... be a part of the solution. Educate ALL Thais about democracy. Harshen the sentences for people caught committing electoral fraud. Jail those that call for violence and keep them in jail. Disenfranchise felons and prevent them from holding public office. Ensure that the checks and balances that were destroyed during the Thaksin era are operating fully again. THEN hold a national referendum on the constitution to deal with the problems of the current one. THEN hold elections. Doing all of this could be done in a year.

[RegularReader]

Abhsisit is no fool, he knows all of this very well, he knows he's got a monumental task ahead.

I wish him and K. Korn the very best of luck.

Abhsisit needs to deliver for Isaan people, I would think. It is no time to let Isaan people down from now on.

Very good point Ding.

Putting that together with what Scorecard said in the post above yours, you have it in a nutshell.

Let's keep everything crossed and hope these next few days don't erupt.

Then, maybe some reforms - many of which have already started to take place - and a more honest and transparent way of running Thailand, will emerge over time.

It will not be achieved by Thaksin "riding in" on a big white horse, flags waving and cheering crowds - like in the movies.

Sadly, that's what so many think should happen.

[SomTumTiger]

In Parlimentary systems sometimes the PM will call elections to: 1.Re-iterate to the electorate that theystill have the confidence of parliment or 2: Attempt to re-structure or re-align the parliment members to allow the PM policies to get additional support.

No secret or nefarious reason here. Sorry conspiricy theorists.

Any government with any sense would not call elections at this point, it is likely to further fan the flames of what is already a potential fiery situation. So far, the Government is acting in the right manner, and is not being railroaded by a mob instigated a crew of thugs and criminals.

Sounds like you have an ego problem. Perfectly rational to correct an error of not calling for an election after the court essentially declared no confidence vote which would have required an election be held.

Let me re-iterate that name calling does not help resolve any problem. Rational negotiation between different opinions to find a workable solution is required.

Don't be part of the Problem! Be part of a Solution!

The solution is simple and your argument of "essentially declared a no confidence vote" is bogus. PPP could have dissolved parliament and called for a new election when they had the power. They didn't. The proximal cause of this mess is Thaksin calling for those early elections to try and protect his business deal with Temasek and to protect TRT. He had an overwhelming majority in Parliament but wanted the new elections to whitewash his crimes. Those elections failed. The Dem's get to run the country for the next year and in that time hopefully they can assure that the next elections will be fair. Eliminate the vote buying. Assure that ballots are secret. Assure that people can campaign freely for office anywhere in the country etc.

Yes ... be a part of the solution. Educate ALL Thais about democracy. Harshen the sentences for people caught committing electoral fraud. Jail those that call for violence and keep them in jail. Disenfranchise felons and prevent them from holding public office. Ensure that the checks and balances that were destroyed during the Thaksin era are operating fully again. THEN hold a national referendum on the constitution to deal with the problems of the current one. THEN hold elections. Doing all of this could be done in a year.

Amen JD. Amen