Trying To Bargain Behind The Scenes : Thaksin

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

De-Thaksinisation?

By Somroutai Sapsomboon,

Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Fugitive ex-PM is allegedly trying to bargain behind the scenes as some red elements seek to shake off his shadow

Thaksin Shinawatra seems to have lost his voice at a time when the red-shirt protesters have found a new one. Is it a coincidence or do the late arrival of Pheu Thai MPs at the Phan Fa stage and the fugitive's proclaimed sore throat - that has been preventing him from addressing his supporters for a third day in a row - signal a major rethink in the anti-government campaign?

Nobody knows for certain if his throat is really sore, though Thaksin did tweet yesterday, claiming he still needed an injection "so I can come back quickly and talk to [my supporters] again". However, this excuse was preceded by news in Bangkok that the Foreign Ministry was renewing its attempts to have the United Arab Emirates banish the former PM.

Still, whatever the real reason, Thaksin's three-day absence meant a new star was born at Phan Fa. Chaturon Chaisang led an army of Pheu Thai MPs to the red-shirt stage this week and quickly became the rally's best speaker to date, quelling rumours that Thaksin's political party and the street protesters were drifting apart. With Thaksin's self-absorbed belligerence replaced by Chaturon's calm and reasonable presence, the red-shirt crusade took on a new look, though not by much and we don't know how long it will last.

How can a campaign for (and funded by) Thaksin pull away from him? Posters of Thaksin have adorned the Phan Fa Bridge, and nine out of 10 protesters would admit that he Is the real reason they are in Bangkok. Yet, he is both an asset and a liability for the rally. Without him there wouldn't be a mass rally in the first place, but because of him the protesters have never been given the credit that some sympathisers believe they deserve.

Thaksin has been insisting that the protests are not about him, yet according to a high-ranking source, some bargaining was taking place behind the scenes. Thaksin's alleged conditions are that he quickly be given back the money the Supreme Court did not confiscate and that he be allowed a "little honourable space to stand on". This confirms what his younger brother Payap said a few weeks ago - if Thaksin's dignity was returned through some form of amnesty or probation and he was given back a significant portion of his wealth, then all the problems would be solved.

If the red-shirt campaign has moved "far beyond Thaksin" like some have suggested, then the rally must be at a fragile stage now and this so-called negotiation could be like dynamite that can blow it away. In this "It's not about Thaksin" scenario, protest organisers will have to walk a very tight rope. For example, how can they keep the increasingly exhausted and homesick crowds motivated? How can they convince the protesters that they are fighting for something more noble than Thaksin's Bt30 billion.

The Pheu Thai MPs had been aware of the "double-edged sword" that Thaksin's involvement would be and had sought to initially stay away. Their change of heart means that either Thaksin's carrot-and-stick strategy is working at last, or that the MPs are part of a very subtle scheme to "de-Thaksinfy" the rally.

And it's not just the MPs who were weary of Thaksin's shadows being cast over the rally. Left-wing hardliners who had jumped on the Thaksin bandwagon simply because they thought they could use his popularity to support their cause have been embarrassed by his obscene personal interests intertwining with real problems of the poor. Last week, Thaksin awkwardly called himself a "phrai" (poor slave), providing his enemies with jokes that undermined the rally.

Thaksin is also the reason why the government has refused to negotiate with the red shirts. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made it clear that talks revolving around or alluding to Thaksin's future can never take place. Thaksin himself seems to have realised how his mere presence has made things very complicated, saying in one of his tweets yesterday that the protest organisers have full mandate to negotiate with the government.

Meanwhile, the MPs' participation came with another strategic shift. The initial intention to make this a "heavyweight bout" that could end in two rounds has been replaced by a slow-but-sure philosophy that would make the rally compact, protracted and flexible - just like the yellow-shirt rally.

"We don't mind if the number of protesters drops to 4,000 or 5,000," one protest leader told The Nation yesterday. "A smaller rally makes it easier for rotation and we can save our energy for occasional mass gatherings."

The street activists and MPs are hoping that their joined forces would make this Saturday's crowd balloon to an impressive size. "We will show that we can wait, too," red-shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan said. "The government will try to provoke us but we have learned our lesson. We don't want violence and society will never accept a party that triggers violence."

With both sides apparently digging their heels in, what would the man with the sore throat say? Has the rally really become "mature" enough to continue on its own? Or are the new voices we've been hearing over the past three days just commercial breaks to make up for the absence of the one and only star who refuses to fade away?

-- The Nation 2010-03-25

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[givenall]

When will his supporter ever get smart and learn that they cant trust men like Thaksin. He only cares about himeself and what he gains. He will pass crumbs to others while heonly keep the cookies for himself. Wise Up Reds

[anotherpeter]

How can a campaign for (and funded by) Thaksin pull away from him? Posters of Thaksin have adorned the Phan Fa Bridge, and nine out of 10 protesters would admit that he Is the real reason they are in Bangkok. Yet, he is both an asset and a liability for the rally. Without him there wouldn't be a mass rally in the first place, but because of him the protesters have never been given the credit that some sympathisers believe they deserve.

Correct. This protest is all about Thaksin.

If the reds can negotiate with the government for solutions that make things better for the poor, rather than exoneration for Thaksin, then they will make some progress.

[Meridian007]

I think we have all experienced a trait here where no one can ever admit that they were wrong. This is damaging the reds, but at least they are beginning to see it. If they can just swallow their inflated pride and egos, and truly cut the strings to Thaksin, things will get better for them.

He needs to be utterly denounced, and the true nature of his his greed and how it has damaged the very people who are suffering for him in the streets, needs to be shown to the people by the red leadership. Then things can progress forward.

Edited March 25, 2010 by Meridian007

[Samuian]

Amazing show, America got "Sesame Street", Australia "The Wiggles", UK the "Thomas Tank Engine" and Thailand got "Thaksin, the four stooges and the red sea of paid protesters" show!

...to be continued...

from "Your say" on TAN Network:

yellow and red = orange guys start your orange revolution fight corruption misuse of power in Thailand. don't fight eachother. Taksin yesor know, honestly who cares except few people which are misusing the Thai people for their benefit. this are ur brothers sisters collegeagues, ur co worker etc. Tomorrow you have to work and live togther again with or without Taksin. Let the democratic system take care of it. ensure tht yellows and red which have or had violated the law of the kingdom will be punished equally. Nobody is above the law not Taksn and not yellows reds and so on. comparison to Hittler Goebbels are not helping. be good and shake hands and work togther for a better Thailand.

upps_i forgot , Germany (3/24/2010 4:37 PM)

Edited March 25, 2010 by Samuian

[Jingthing]

They will never denounce him. He is their Achilles heel. They can't win with him and they can't function without him. Like the article said, without Thaksin worship, there would be no crowds. Again, it really is almost all about Thaksin and his money, jail problems, and face. The best they can do is push him a little bit to the back. Will that be enough for them to be a morally credible movement? I say no, it is not enough.

Edited March 25, 2010 by Jingthing

[siampolee]

Thaksin is playing the old ''Sympathy Card ''trick .

Ah poor little diddums me, I have got a poorly throat, ah please give me some love.

Definitely qualifies for the '' Creep of The week'' prize

[scorecard]

How can a campaign for (and funded by) Thaksin pull away from him? Posters of Thaksin have adorned the Phan Fa Bridge, and nine out of 10 protesters would admit that he Is the real reason they are in Bangkok. Yet, he is both an asset and a liability for the rally. Without him there wouldn't be a mass rally in the first place, but because of him the protesters have never been given the credit that some sympathisers believe they deserve.

Correct. This protest is all about Thaksin.

If the reds can negotiate with the government for solutions that make things better for the poor, rather than exoneration for Thaksin, then they will make some progress.

1. Is there a need for real chnage which would really improve the distrubution of wealth across all Thais? YES!

2. Is there a need for real change which would give the lowest income earners (survivors) a lot more real opportunity in life? YES!

3. Are the red shirts a credible change agent? Have they ever put forward anything concrete to really define what needs to change is needed and how it would be measured, or some benchmarks for change? NO!

4. Have any of the red shirt leaders ever spoken at length and in depth about the conceps of democracy, the pillars of democracy etc., etc? NO, NEVER!!!!

5. If there a need for a real democracy movement in Thailand (sincere, knowledgeabale, rational discussion, etc)? YES!

Is it the red shirts? NO, NO, and NO!!!

Are the red shirstnage and how go about

[Jingthing]

Exactly, scorecard. The trouble is though that Thailand doesn't appear to be politically mature enough to start that kind of morally credible, intellectually reasoned, progressive movement. So they are stuck with this level of craziness for the forseeable future. The ironic part of it to me is that in a better world, I could see someone like Abhisit or someone like Abhisit rising to the occasion of being that kind of credible transformative unifying leader, but of course he would never be given a chance to even try with the red/Thaksin base. I know that idea will inspire ridicule, but in many ways Abhisit is a prisoner of the divided political realities, he could be so much more. He can try to copy some of the better ideas of the Thaksin era until the cows come home, but the red/Thaksinistas will never give him credit.

Edited March 25, 2010 by Jingthing

[MyphuketLife]

Thaksin is playing the old ''Sympathy Card ''trick .

Ah poor little diddums me, I have got a poorly throat, ah please give me some love.

Definitely qualifies for the '' Creep of The week'' prize

Look I feel sorry for the man at 500baht a pop it will take allot of throat "work" to regain his billion.

Edited March 25, 2010 by MyphuketLife

[animatic]

Bargaining with a losing hand is still a crap shoot.

Thaksin wants a space with a little dignity and the cash not taken returned.

So this comes down to Money and Face... and nothing else matters for him.

Dignity, ie not going to jail for anything he's done.

Cash because he still thinks he deserves anything,

he managed to take from others via hook or crook.

So trash the country until he gets his face back?

Most would say that loses him his face irretrievably.

How can you trash your home land and expect to have face left?

Edited March 25, 2010 by animatic

[janderton]

...need for a real democracy movement in Thailand (sincere, knowledgeabale, rational discussion, etc)? YES!

Is it the red shirts? NO, NO, and NO!!!

...

NOR the yellows...

the only fee "suspended" was for the tourist* visa....

ALL the taxes has been increased by this minority-voted sub-specie-government

*altough the thailand's favourites kind of tourism is the spendallur$in1week&goaway: to them, V.O.A. is more than enough

Edited March 25, 2010 by janderton

[steveromagnino]

Bargaining with a losing hand is still a crap shoot.

Thaksin wants a space with a little dignity and the cash not taken returned.

So this comes down to Money and Face... and nothing else matters for him.

Dignity, ie not going to jail for anything he's done.

Cash because he still thinks he deserves anything,

he managed to take from others via hook or crook.

So trash the country until he gets his face back?

Most would say that loses him his face irretrievably.

How can you trash your home land and expect to have face left?

Chaturon is a reasonable guy, not stupid either; he is almost the type of person you would think the rural folk would want to represent them; he's from a not particularly rich area, he's educated abroad; he is the true epitomy of country boy made good (I bet he's never been poor, but he's also seen poverty as he grew up) - his only problem is he will never have the mass popularity of a Kennedy, Shinawatra, Churchill, Mugabe or Estrada - I choose 4 different popular leaders carefully, because love or hate them, each has a magnetism that makes them likeable; Chaturon is more of the Ahibisit well thought out carefully considered ideas type guy.

Dunno if that works as a popularist leader.

But better than Chavalit by like a factor of a billion.

There are some pretty dodgy politicians from this part of THailand, not so sure how clean he is.

Edited March 25, 2010 by steveromagnino

[Jingthing]

I could see someone like Abhisit or someone like Abhisit

Correction: I could see Abhisit or someone like Abhisit

[Samuian]

They will never denounce him. He is their Achilles heel. They can't win with him and they can't function without him. Like the article said, without Thaksin worship, there would be no crowds. Again, it really is almost all about Thaksin and his money, jail problems, and face. The best they can do is push him a little bit to the back. Will that be enough for them to be a morally credible movement? I say no, it is not enough.

"Almost"... not to forget his banned "mates", the former TRT network hardcore troupe!

General Amnesty for all!

And a Constitution which will suit them and here Thailand goes...

I think, some usually rather calm and quiet observers understood this in 2006

when the dices fell the other way..

[yoshiwara]

And it's not just the MPs who were weary of Thaksin's shadows being cast over the rally. Left-wing hardliners who had jumped on the Thaksin bandwagon simply because they thought they could use his popularity to support their cause have been embarrassed by his obscene personal interests intertwining with real problems of the poor. Last week, Thaksin awkwardly called himself a "phrai" (poor slave), providing his enemies with jokes that undermined the rally.

Forum Thaksin apologists have a problem.

Although they are more 'soggy left' than hard left, the shadow of Thaksin has corrupted any points that they have cared to make.

They are poor slaves of Thaksin.

[FatherF]

IMHO I think the timing is right for Abhisit to go on TV and make a clear statement regarding this governments aims regarding the poor, health plans, welfare programme's etc etc, the timing is right to completely nip this in the bud!

FF

[jdinasia]

Pheu Thai Files Complaint against Govt with UN

The opposition Pheu Thai Party has filed a complaint against the government's strict security and the military presence at Parliament with the UN.

Meanwhile, police have opened Rajvithi Road to traffic.

from the updates thread ---- I would rewrite this in the following manner ----

"Thaksin's Nominee party ---PTP has completely lost track of Thaksin's own words at the height of his ~war on drugs~ when Thaksin said "the UN is not my Father" ---Having lost track of that the PTP went crying to the UN when Parliament House was actually placed under gaurd from the outside to prevent the Red shirts (another Thaksin nominee group - but this time paid protesters) from disrupting the work of Parliament."

Gotta get a laugh in about the irony of it all!

Edited March 25, 2010 by jdinasia

[anotherpeter]

IMHO I think the timing is right for Abhisit to go on TV and make a clear statement regarding this governments aims regarding the poor, health plans, welfare programme's etc etc, the timing is right to completely nip this in the bud!

FF

That would be fine, except that any one that supports the reds only watch the reds TV channel, and the people that run that would never let anything get on there that a) makes Abhisit look good, or b ) makes Thaksin look bad.

Edited March 25, 2010 by anotherpeter

[FatherF]

Fair comment, but i think that all types of media should be used, (A bit like Taksin did) in that way I'm sure that some information would filter through be it in print/radio/TV.

FF

[otherstuff1957]

Remember the months before the coup? Thaksin had stepped down as PM... or at least everyone was under the impression that he had. But he couldn't stay out of the spotlight. One day he suddenly walked back into Parliament and started issuing commands again. It seems that he couldn't stand running the country though a proxy, he had to control things himself.

It will be the same this time. The more rational Reds are, quite rightly, overjoyed at having Thaksin step back and having a man like Chaturon come to the forefront. However, it will not last. My prediction is that Thaksin will be mouthing off again in a week or less. He's a classic control freak. He can't delegate because he doesn't trust anyone (except Pojemon).

[Meridian007]

Pheu Thai Files Complaint against Govt with UN

The opposition Pheu Thai Party has filed a complaint against the government's strict security and the military presence at Parliament with the UN.

Meanwhile, police have opened Rajvithi Road to traffic.

from the updates thread ---- I would rewrite this in the following manner ----

"Thaksin's Nominee party ---PTP has completely lost track of Thaksin's own words at the height of his ~war on drugs~ when Thaksin said "the UN is not my Father" ---Having lost track of that the PTP went crying to the UN when Parliament House was actually placed under gaurd from the outside to prevent the Red shirts (another Thaksin nominee group - but this time paid protesters) from disrupting the work of Parliament."

Gotta get a laugh in about the irony of it all!

Typical. What part of the UN? Are they going to stand up in the assembly the next time it meets in September, and cry crocodile tears like Thanusak Lek-uthai did today? Are they going to bring it up with the security council? (Oh ya, they aren't part of the current 10 Non-permanent members, guess they could get Nigeria to talk for them ) Are they going to start an ICJ case like Thaksin said he would? (Oh ya, it's only jurisdiction is in state-state matters, individuals or groups within a state can't bring cases forward )

They keep yelling "UN!" now. I guess they,(and by extension Thaksin), have changed their minds about paternity -- "I'm gonna tell dad!"

Even if this was brought to the UN Human Rights Commission, the red leaders will just be told that the troops aren't imposing any kind of pressure on issues in the house, they are only there to protect some members who are at risk from Pheu Thai's red-shirt mob. The military is merely doing its job.

[moresomekl]

IMHO I think the timing is right for Abhisit to go on TV and make a clear statement regarding this governments aims regarding the poor, health plans, welfare programme's etc etc, the timing is right to completely nip this in the bud!

FF

That would be fine, except that any one that supports the reds only watch the reds TV channel, and the people that run that would never let anything get on there that a) makes Abhisit look good, or b ) makes Thaksin look bad.

In that case they could drop leaflets by plane over the redshirts . Not that it would help much , they would not believe him , and its too political anyway . Its not like WWII with the US droping leaflets over Tokyo .... well not yet

[moresomekl]

Remember the months before the coup? Thaksin had stepped down as PM... or at least everyone was under the impression that he had. But he couldn't stay out of the spotlight. One day he suddenly walked back into Parliament and started issuing commands again. It seems that he couldn't stand running the country though a proxy, he had to control things himself.

It will be the same this time. The more rational Reds are, quite rightly, overjoyed at having Thaksin step back and having a man like Chaturon come to the forefront. However, it will not last. My prediction is that Thaksin will be mouthing off again in a week or less. He's a classic control freak. He can't delegate because he doesn't trust anyone (except Pojemon).

Probably yes . Once he runs out of strepsyl for his thoats ... or runs out of Dubai

[jdinasia]

Remember the months before the coup? Thaksin had stepped down as PM... or at least everyone was under the impression that he had. But he couldn't stay out of the spotlight. One day he suddenly walked back into Parliament and started issuing commands again. It seems that he couldn't stand running the country though a proxy, he had to control things himself.

It will be the same this time. The more rational Reds are, quite rightly, overjoyed at having Thaksin step back and having a man like Chaturon come to the forefront. However, it will not last. My prediction is that Thaksin will be mouthing off again in a week or less. He's a classic control freak. He can't delegate because he doesn't trust anyone (except Pojemon).

Not exactly right .... Thaksin had dissolved Parliament. He walked into Government House and started issuing orders

[scorecard]

Bargaining with a losing hand is still a crap shoot.

Thaksin wants a space with a little dignity and the cash not taken returned.

So this comes down to Money and Face... and nothing else matters for him.

Dignity, ie not going to jail for anything he's done.

Cash because he still thinks he deserves anything,

he managed to take from others via hook or crook.

So trash the country until he gets his face back?

Most would say that loses him his face irretrievably.

How can you trash your home land and expect to have face left?

Chaturon is a reasonable guy, not stupid either; he is almost the type of person you would think the rural folk would want to represent them; he's from a not particularly rich area, he's educated abroad; he is the true epitomy of country boy made good (I bet he's never been poor, but he's also seen poverty as he grew up) - his only problem is he will never have the mass popularity of a Kennedy, Shinawatra, Churchill, Mugabe or Estrada - I choose 4 different popular leaders carefully, because love or hate them, each has a magnetism that makes them likeable; Chaturon is more of the Ahibisit well thought out carefully considered ideas type guy.

Dunno if that works as a popularist leader.

But better than Chavalit by like a factor of a billion.

There are some pretty dodgy politicians from this part of THailand, not so sure how clean he is.

1. thakins personal dignity overrides the best interests of 65million Thai people?

2. Jatuporn was a high profile / senior member of TRT, he stood by and watched the paymaster and others scoop billions out of the common wealth of all Thais, stood by and witnessed 2,500 Thais get gunned down at the paymasters instructuions, stood by and watched massive vote buying, stood by and watched laws being changed for one reason only - to benefit the shin clan in the tune of billions, stood by and watched the ex/im bank being ordered by the paymaster to loan large amounts of money to the Burma thug generals with intenet to enrich the shin clan, and more.

And you suggest he's an honest, sincere good guy with integrity and values and should be seen as a possible future leader of Thailand. Wow, he scores about 1 out of 10 on my scale!

Edited March 25, 2010 by scorecard

[moresomekl]

Now that i think of leaflets , with the red shirts well on their way to stay another month or two , time to drop some of those , advertising cheap rooms to rent .

Business is business

[scorecard]

Exactly, scorecard. The trouble is though that Thailand doesn't appear to be politically mature enough to start that kind of morally credible, intellectually reasoned, progressive movement. So they are stuck with this level of craziness for the forseeable future. The ironic part of it to me is that in a better world, I could see someone like Abhisit or someone like Abhisit rising to the occasion of being that kind of credible transformative unifying leader, but of course he would never be given a chance to even try with the red/Thaksin base. I know that idea will inspire ridicule, but in many ways Abhisit is a prisoner of the divided political realities, he could be so much more. He can try to copy some of the better ideas of the Thaksin era until the cows come home, but the red/Thaksinistas will never give him credit.

I agree with much of your comment, however I think PM Abhisit and K. Korn have a better than 50% chance of bringing deep reform and change.

I suspect they will ultimately (hopefully quickly) attract some highly capable and sincere people to join them and in doing so generate a whole new and better era in Thai politics and a new benchmark of parties and politicians.

However it concerns me that PM Abhisit is too slow to beat them at their own game; introduce some strong quick acting reforms that do have quick and long-term impact on giving the rural poor better opportunities in life, so that they can take care of themselves and to have a better quality of life.

But I emphasise structural reform, which has permanent impact

Not hand-outs, which ultimately makes no progress, and would be criticised by the red shirts as just copying thaksin, validating thaksins 'policies'.

Edited March 25, 2010 by scorecard

[Nuchanart]

What to bargain? Just give him back the 76 billion. Case close.

[anotherpeter]

What to bargain? Just give him back the 76 billion. Case close.

That would just bring a different million protestors out (except really a million).