Bangkok Residents Become Hostages To Red-Shirt Anarchy

[humfurry]

Jing (or others), do you still believe Abhisit has a chance to prevail somehow? If so, how? Emergency order decree?

I wouldn't bet the house on it! How? Haven't a clue.

Ahhh.... But would you dissolve the "House" Jingthing?

[humfurry]

I don't understand what a North-American Buffalo has to do with the red shirts, but alright ..

It symbolizes the red farang water buffalo followers.

Naturally, it's written in English:P

[chadintheusa]

The PM doesn't seem to have either the will to maintain law and order, or he lacks the support of the military to enforce it. Better brace yourselves for the possibility that the Reds might just pull this off. In that case we will see how little they actually respect democracy and the rights of all citizens, especially those that disagree with their skewed reality. It's so ridiculous, the leaders of the protest urge their followers to attack and intimidate but when they go over an imaginary line they become fake reds. Truth is the protesters are doing exactly what is expected of them.

[Sao Jiang Mai]

If the reds had been willing to negotiate I think that they could have gained a lot more. However, if the government gives in to threats then from now on this will be how politics are resolved in Thailand. You can't give in to this or it will set a dangerous precedent. They could have continued to protest peacefully, as the yellows did for months, but once things went beyond the pale, as the yellows did when they stormed the airport, then it is simply unacceptable. The reds no longer have a leg to stand on, they should go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy - and get rid of Thaksin, Arisaman, and a few unsavoury figures.

[ThailandLovr]

So much for Oxford's "How to control the mob" poli sci classes....

[Sao Jiang Mai]

What would your solution be? Shoot to kill?

[Netfan]

If the reds had been willing to negotiate I think that they could have gained a lot more. However, if the government gives in to threats then from now on this will be how politics are resolved in Thailand. You can't give in to this or it will set a dangerous precedent. They could have continued to protest peacefully, as the yellows did for months, but once things went beyond the pale, as the yellows did when they stormed the airport, then it is simply unacceptable. The reds no longer have a leg to stand on, they should go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy - and get rid of Thaksin, Arisaman, and a few unsavoury figures.

You're right, but it won't happen. They now believe they are winning - and they might be. Winning what would be a good question, as Thailand is very close to not having a functioning government. Thaksin must be thrilled. <deleted> is the army thinking? Looks like they have stabbed Abhisit in the back.

[hammered]

If the reds had been willing to negotiate I think that they could have gained a lot more. However, if the government gives in to threats then from now on this will be how politics are resolved in Thailand. You can't give in to this or it will set a dangerous precedent. They could have continued to protest peacefully, as the yellows did for months, but once things went beyond the pale, as the yellows did when they stormed the airport, then it is simply unacceptable. The reds no longer have a leg to stand on, they should go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy - and get rid of Thaksin, Arisaman, and a few unsavoury figures.

You're right, but it won't happen. They now believe they are winning - and they might be. Winning what would be a good question, as Thailand is very close to not having a functioning government. Thaksin must be thrilled. <deleted> is the army thinking? Looks like they have stabbed Abhisit in the back.

Wait and see what Banharn says at 5 PM. You can put all your savings on him being on the side that comes out on top;)

Edited April 7, 2010 by hammered

[Neurath]

If the reds had been willing to negotiate I think that they could have gained a lot more. However, if the government gives in to threats then from now on this will be how politics are resolved in Thailand. You can't give in to this or it will set a dangerous precedent. They could have continued to protest peacefully, as the yellows did for months, but once things went beyond the pale, as the yellows did when they stormed the airport, then it is simply unacceptable. The reds no longer have a leg to stand on, they should go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy - and get rid of Thaksin, Arisaman, and a few unsavoury figures.

You're right, but it won't happen. They now believe they are winning - and they might be. Winning what would be a good question, as Thailand is very close to not having a functioning government. Thaksin must be thrilled. <deleted> is the army thinking? Looks like they have stabbed Abhisit in the back.

Wait and see what Banharn says at 5 PM. You can put all your savings on him being on the side that comes out on top;)

Yep, he has between now and 5p.m. to see who makes the best offer.

[ThailandLovr]

What would your solution be? Shoot to kill?

No. When the Red Shirt leaders started shouting blood murder from their pulpit stage, enraging thousands night after night, the warrants for riot incitement should have been carried out in combination with crowd control methods (water cannons, sound). Sorry, but the Mr. Nice Guy approach doesn't work in situations like this.

[rogerdee123]

According to the Nation twitters, Apiwan says the military has stopped supporting the Govt and he told the Reds that they are about to win.

Regarding the military not supporting the Govt .... hmmm don't know if that's really true but from observations over the past several days that is a conclusion that would seem obvious at least superficially. But also if true, doesn't it contradict the Reds monotonous repetitive allegations that the military is propping up the Govt?

And ... IF it's true ... would the Reds welcome the military into their camp (ha ha .. rhetorical question .. of course they will) after their monotonous repetitive diatribes against the military in politics?

Well of course we know they will flip flop on almost anything and everything. Like Mr. T they are 85% spin and 15% substance.

It may be wishful thinking on my part, but I can't help but believe that the unmentionable has perhaps asked the Govt (and military) not to harm anyone. And there could be a final act in this "theater of the absurd" that could be a surprise for most everyone particularly the Reds. We will see. I may be wrong. All I know is .... the patience that the Govt and military is showing with these Red hooligans is unprecedented and I don't think ANY Thai or intelligent observer would have predicted this. And I think the Reds are as shocked as anyone else ... except for the misguided few who honestly think they are stronger than the military or that the military fears them.

[Allures]

Alright we need to get some of the FACTS straight. ..

FIRST: Arisaman was NOT holding a BOMB, as it clearly says right on the side that it is a CS gas canister. It is designed to be thrown by hand and NOT launched via other means of propulsion; those have a completely different configuration.

SECOND; both the handle and locking pin are in place... Now who in their right mind would throw a tear gas canister into an unruly crowd without pulling the pin FIRST ? (Doesn’t that defeat the purpose of throwing a gas canister in the first place as in all likelihood it’d have the pin pulled and be thrown back at you. )

More red lies.

I also find it strange that the breaking news says; "Core Leaders denounced the storming of Government House”, yet it was lead by Arisaman Pongruengrong. Isn't he one of the core people? Just how many core leaders are there and don’t they ever talk to one another?

Even more red lies. He's a core leader.

THE NATION: Two men in red with tear gas found at the Parliament in the sea of red. Reds leader Arisaman was quick to pronounce them 'fake".

Yep, still more red lies.

[Netfan]

If the reds had been willing to negotiate I think that they could have gained a lot more. However, if the government gives in to threats then from now on this will be how politics are resolved in Thailand. You can't give in to this or it will set a dangerous precedent. They could have continued to protest peacefully, as the yellows did for months, but once things went beyond the pale, as the yellows did when they stormed the airport, then it is simply unacceptable. The reds no longer have a leg to stand on, they should go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy - and get rid of Thaksin, Arisaman, and a few unsavoury figures.

You're right, but it won't happen. They now believe they are winning - and they might be. Winning what would be a good question, as Thailand is very close to not having a functioning government. Thaksin must be thrilled. <deleted> is the army thinking? Looks like they have stabbed Abhisit in the back.

Wait and see what Banharn says at 5 PM. You can put all your savings on him being on the side that comes out on top;)

Yep, he has between now and 5p.m. to see who makes the best offer.

And we know where the BIG money is, with promises of more to come. Abhisit should have paid more attention when they were teaching Machiavelli at Oxford. Not that the past matters in politics, but what is / was Branham's relationship with Thaksin?

[termad]

According to the Nation twitters, Apiwan says the military has stopped supporting the Govt and he told the Reds that they are about to win.

Regarding the military not supporting the Govt .... hmmm don't know if that's really true but from observations over the past several days that is a conclusion that would seem obvious at least superficially. But also if true, doesn't it contradict the Reds monotonous repetitive allegations that the military is propping up the Govt?

And ... IF it's true ... would the Reds welcome the military into their camp (ha ha .. rhetorical question .. of course they will) after their monotonous repetitive diatribes against the military in politics?

Well of course we know they will flip flop on almost anything and everything. Like Mr. T they are 85% spin and 15% substance.

It may be wishful thinking on my part, but I can't help but believe that the unmentionable has perhaps asked the Govt (and military) not to harm anyone. And there could be a final act in this "theater of the absurd" that could be a surprise for most everyone particularly the Reds. We will see. I may be wrong. All I know is .... the patience that the Govt and military is showing with these Red hooligans is unprecedented and I don't think ANY Thai or intelligent observer would have predicted this. And I think the Reds are as shocked as anyone else ... except for the misguided few who honestly think they are stronger than the military or that the military fears them.

I don't think that the Military fears them but that they have known from the start that taking on a hundred plus civilians is a no win situation - especially if (as believed) the civilians start fighting back on the streets. I think that the Reds have known this from the start which is why they have been so confident. There is also the fact that many, if not most, of the troops that the Military has come from the main recruiting areas in the North and Northeast. Would they be willing to club the folks from back home?

However there is still time for Abhisit back down and call elections supervised by International Observers.

Edited April 7, 2010 by termad

[Jingthing]

I am not buying that it would have been impossible, or is still impossible, to crack down using normal riot control measures mixed with mass arrests. Yes, there will be casualties but the reds are begging for it, so what is the alternative, caving in to this anarchic mob? If the reds turn lethal, lethal response is legally justified. Any civilized country would have stopped this madness LONG AGO, and yes, I know Thailand is limited this way.

[rogerdee123]

Alright we need to get some of the FACTS straight. ..

FIRST: Arisaman was NOT holding a BOMB, as it clearly says right on the side that it is a CS gas canister. It is designed to be thrown by hand and NOT launched via other means of propulsion; those have a completely different configuration.

SECOND; both the handle and locking pin are in place... Now who in their right mind would throw a tear gas canister into an unruly crowd without pulling the pin FIRST ? (Doesn’t that defeat the purpose of throwing a gas canister in the first place as in all likelihood it’d have the pin pulled and be thrown back at you. )

More red lies.

I also find it strange that the breaking news says; "Core Leaders denounced the storming of Government House”, yet it was lead by Arisaman Pongruengrong. Isn't he one of the core people? Just how many core leaders are there and don’t they ever talk to one another?

Even more red lies. He's a core leader.

THE NATION: Two men in red with tear gas found at the Parliament in the sea of red. Reds leader Arisaman was quick to pronounce them 'fake".

Yep, still more red lies.

Maybe there are many fake Arisaman Fake Arisman leading fake Red shirts. The Govt should now say that the Parliament building is fake.

[termad]

I am not buying that it would have been impossible, or is still impossible, to crack down using normal riot control measures mixed with mass arrests. Yes, there will be casualties but the reds are begging for it, so what is the alternative, caving in to this anarchic mob? If the reds turn lethal, lethal response is legally justified. Any civilized country would have stopped this madness LONG AGO, and yes, I know Thailand is limited this way.

They didn't stop the PAD's Suvarnabhumi siezure and at the time their numbers were only about 30,000. Also I doubt that the Yellow Shirts would have taken on the Army. The Red Shirts however would do so. So what's best, dead Red shirts and Soldiers on the streets possibly followed by protracted civil war or put the question to the people through an election? There is only one answer.

[Jingthing]

Foolish! You seriously think an election now forced by an angry violent anarchic red mob will solve this crisis. Shockingly naive.

[way2muchcoffee]

I am not buying that it would have been impossible, or is still impossible, to crack down using normal riot control measures mixed with mass arrests. Yes, there will be casualties but the reds are begging for it, so what is the alternative, caving in to this anarchic mob? If the reds turn lethal, lethal response is legally justified. Any civilized country would have stopped this madness LONG AGO, and yes, I know Thailand is limited this way.

They didn't stop the PAD's Suvarnabhumi siezure and at the time their numbers were only about 30,000. Also I doubt that the Yellow Shirts would have taken on the Army. The Red Shirts however would do so. So what's best, dead Red shirts and Soldiers on the streets possibly followed by protracted civil war or put the question to the people through an election? There is only one answer.

Will you say the same when the yellows come out after the election, in the case of a PTP lead government?

[rogerdee123]

If the reds had been willing to negotiate I think that they could have gained a lot more. However, if the government gives in to threats then from now on this will be how politics are resolved in Thailand. You can't give in to this or it will set a dangerous precedent. They could have continued to protest peacefully, as the yellows did for months, but once things went beyond the pale, as the yellows did when they stormed the airport, then it is simply unacceptable. The reds no longer have a leg to stand on, they should go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy - and get rid of Thaksin, Arisaman, and a few unsavoury figures.

You're right, but it won't happen. They now believe they are winning - and they might be. Winning what would be a good question, as Thailand is very close to not having a functioning government. Thaksin must be thrilled. <deleted> is the army thinking? Looks like they have stabbed Abhisit in the back.

Wait and see what Banharn says at 5 PM. You can put all your savings on him being on the side that comes out on top;)

From the website: http://www.th4u.com/banharn_silpa-archa.htm

21st Prime Minister of Thailand

Banharn Silpa-archa is of a Thai Chinese ancestry from Chaoyang. He was said to be born in 1932 (age 77) in Suphanburi Province of Thailand. However, there were varying rumors about it. Public figure, his name is also spelt variously: Banharn Silapa-archa, Banhan Silpa-archa, Banhaan Silpa-archa, Banharn Sinlapa-archa, Banharn Silpa-acha, etc.

Banharn is a veteran Sino-Thai Member of Parliament since 1976 as the elected representative of Suphanburi province. Since then, he, the strongman of Suphanburi, has enjoyed unchallenged domination in Suphanburi province. In every election he participated, he won by a landslide victory, receiving on average 60–90% of the votes.

In 1994, Banharn became the Chart Thai (Thai Nation) Party Leader and the Oppsition Leader in Parliament. On 19 May 1995, after the Royal Decree of Parliament Closure, Banharn's Thai Nation Party won the landslide victory and he was appointed Prime Minister. Banharn left office a year after, on 27 September 1996, when the concordance in his administration had diminished as a result of yet another corruption scandal.

Throughout this seemingly versatile career, Banharn "I have charisma" Silpa-archa has been involved in numerous corruption scandals. Many Thais call him all sorts of pejorative names, such as "Mr. ATM", portraying him as a politico who dispenses dirty money under the table to anyone who needs it. His short-lived yet highly inept administration is believed to have paved the way for the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.

On 21 January 2008, Banharn held a press conference in which he officially announced the merging of his Chart Thai Party with the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party. Earlier he had vowed before the Emerald Buddha to never rejoin Thaksin because of his corruption scandals. Since then, Banharn has been given a new nickname – "Slippery Eel."

On 2 December 2008, the Chart Thai Party along with People's Power Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court of Thailand for having violated electoral laws in the 2007 general election. The party executives, including Banharn Silapa-archa, were banned from Thai politics for five years.

[Nuchanart]

I am not buying that it would have been impossible, or is still impossible, to crack down using normal riot control measures mixed with mass arrests. Yes, there will be casualties but the reds are begging for it, so what is the alternative, caving in to this anarchic mob? If the reds turn lethal, lethal response is legally justified. Any civilized country would have stopped this madness LONG AGO, and yes, I know Thailand is limited this way.

Walk straight into a red trap?

[Nuchanart]

so you think those thai people in facebook are actually farang with multiple account (200,000) and made up their thai names and writing thai scripts on facebook?

i think you haven't eaten yet.

One person can sign up 100,000 user names, there are no restictions. Google translate can write in Thai for you.

If 10,000 PAD members signed up for 20 names each, you have 200K.

Think about it, why would anyone put a "poll" on facebook which the majority of the millions of Thai people do not even use ?????? Unless its there as a tool of the Yellow shirt PAD.

It is not representative of anything due the ease with which it can be manipulated and abused.

Stop posting lies, this is tiresome.

Either you are lieing to try to win a point without facts or you are clearly not computer savvy at all and have no clue as to what is out there.

No, you are wrong that there is no checks. First of all, one email per one facebook account.

Then they do check registrations on IP and time, and look for automated signups.

Also, if you think there is any cloned signups, you can very easy report the profiles and have all clones removed.

Shouldn't be a problem for a talented person as yourself, right?

From the internet active segment of the population a huge selection is using Hi5 and Facebook. Younger tend to go for Hi5, above university age mostly on Facebook or both.

You would be surprised what kind of people your would find on FB...

I hope putting these links are okay. I don't see anything int he forum rules about it ...

http://www.facebook.com/Abhisit.M.Vejjajiva has 145k+ fans.

http://www.facebook.com/thaksinlives has just over 17k fans.

You can also see the pictures of all the users (fans) on both pages and you have to look hard to find farang faces.

You are also welcome to show me another Thaksin FB page but this seems to be the official one and has the most fans

This confirm the sterotype.

Most yellow shirts (high class/rich Thais) have internet access

Most red shirts (low class/poor Thais) DO NOT have internet access

[Insight]

Starting to understand Thaksin now actually.

Who in their right mind would seriously want to try running this country, without having a pay-off of a few billion at the end of it?

[Netfan]

From the website: http://www.th4u.com/banharn_silpa-archa.htm

21st Prime Minister of Thailand

In 1994, Banharn became the Chart Thai (Thai Nation) Party Leader and the Oppsition Leader in Parliament. On 19 May 1995, after the Royal Decree of Parliament Closure, Banharn's Thai Nation Party won the landslide victory and he was appointed Prime Minister. Banharn left office a year after, on 27 September 1996, when the concordance in his administration had diminished as a result of yet another corruption scandal.

His short-lived yet highly inept administration is believed to have paved the way for the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.

On 21 January 2008, Banharn held a press conference in which he officially announced the merging of his Chart Thai Party with the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party. Earlier he had vowed before the Emerald Buddha to never rejoin Thaksin because of his corruption scandals. Since then, Banharn has been given a new nickname – "Slippery Eel."

On 2 December 2008, the Chart Thai Party along with People's Power Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court of Thailand for having violated electoral laws in the 2007 general election. The party executives, including Banharn Silapa-archa, were banned from Thai politics for five years.

Thanks for that...he sounds perfect!!! Just who Thailand needs to bring back the good old days! Is he still banned though? I guess banned or not he's got a lot of pull.

[way2muchcoffee]

This confirm the sterotype.

Most yellow shirts (high class/rich Thais) have internet access

Most red shirts (low class/poor Thais) DO NOT have internet access

Everyone in Thailand has internet access. There is at least one internet shop in every ampher muang nationwide. Most smaller cities and towns also have them. Almost every village has at least one pu yai who does have internet access.

[Tod Daniels]

There will be a list of options drawn up probably :

1/ Dissolve the house and call for elections.

2/ Have the EC find the Democtats guilty and disband them and have elections.

3/ Have a coup for "unity" and then elections.

4/ Have the smaller coalition parties leave the coalition and therefore call for an election

The main thing is for new elections soonest, and the power back to the people to elect the government of their choice !!!

1/ - News Flash: Abhisit offered this in a workable time frame (one he freely admitted wasn't cut in stone, only the opening gambit) and it was shot down, with nothing but 15 day dissolution by the redz.

2/ - Another News Flash; Did you happen to Google Election Commission of Thailand and see WHEN they were appointed? Here's a hint, the coup wasn't even 24 hours old. Any question on which side of the fence they're sitting on?

3/ - Sketchy, as the Army is just bidding time, and they certainly learned last time they don't know the first thing about how to run a government.

4/ - Again sketchy, as the smaller parties are held in check by a single person. Here's a hint he's banned from politics for 5 years, comes from Buriram used to support TRT/PPP but flipped sides. (BTW: his name sounds a lot like "Newin")

Just who in the list of MP's which compose the current government was NOT elected by 'the people" as you so eloquently put it?

Even when MP's were red carded, or banned outright there were by-election in those constituencies and they (as in the people) got to elect another person for representation.

Unless you don’t know;

This is an elected government composed of 76 "Senators" (one for each province) and 74 appointed ones. That comprises the “Upper House”

The Lower house consists of 480 members. 400 of the MPs are elected directly from constituencies around the country. (The other 80 members are selected using ‘proportional representation’ through party-lists. The MPs are selected from 8 electoral areas (each consists of several provinces), 10 members from each area. This system is called the ‘Mixed Member Majoritarian’ in which a voter has two votes one for the constituency MP and the other for a party in the voter’s electoral area. )

The ruling of the Constitutional court on the 2 December 2008 is what swung it to the Demz (who BTW are NOT frickin’ yellowz; lest you forget they are known as the PAD)

That court ruling found against the PPP plus the Chart Thai and Neutral Democratic Parties (coalition partners), subsequently the Prime Minister and several party executives were banned from politics for five years, causing the composition of the House to change.

Please NOTE AGAIN that the successor of the PPP still retained the most seats, however the remainder of the coalition partners defected and joined a Democrat led government. Leaving the For Thais Party (successor of the PPP) and the Pracharaj Party in the opposition.

Anyway you spin the facts, the Demz hold the majority in the lower house and get to run the government. Now how this all came about can be discussed until the cows come home, as well as how complicit the Demz were in this, BUT what cannot be disputed is that every single MP in the lower house was in fact elected by the people, and if you read the above post you'd see that even AFTER the by-elections the successor of the PPP which is PTP held the most seats and it was their coalition partners which changed who got to run the government when they flipped sides.

[ozzieman05]

I am not buying that it would have been impossible, or is still impossible, to crack down using normal riot control measures mixed with mass arrests. Yes, there will be casualties but the reds are begging for it, so what is the alternative, caving in to this anarchic mob? If the reds turn lethal, lethal response is legally justified. Any civilized country would have stopped this madness LONG AGO, and yes, I know Thailand is limited this way.

They didn't stop the PAD's Suvarnabhumi siezure and at the time their numbers were only about 30,000. Also I doubt that the Yellow Shirts would have taken on the Army. The Red Shirts however would do so. So what's best, dead Red shirts and Soldiers on the streets possibly followed by protracted civil war or put the question to the people through an election? There is only one answer.

If it was possible to have a fair election at this time YES

But in your dreams this will ever happen

The mobs will become so big headed you will see nothing but Chaos

and an election that will be legal for at least 5 mins

then it will all start again, with the opposite side, with what ever colour is in fashion

My wife says her Thai fortune Teller says this is only the top of a giant iceberg

soon the one person who all the people love will move on

and then nothing will hold Thailand together

if the PM can not hold it now, he will have no chance in the near future

So Sad for the country I love so much, but must sit back and watch it implode

[termad]

Foolish! You seriously think an election now forced by an angry violent anarchic red mob will solve this crisis. Shockingly naive.

A huge section of the Thai people believe that Abhisit is a stooge of the Elite and the Military. They also believe that they have been cheated out of the Government that they want. You can believe that is true or not - it doesn't matter because you are not Thai.

They have now reached the point that they believe that their only hope of getting a truly Democratic Government is to take to the streets, which they have done, and I think that they have won.

I think that it is true that they are angry. Anarchic. I don't know why you use that word. Violent. I don't know of anybody that they have hurt.

So why are you opposed to an election supervised/monitored by International Observers? I know why Abhisit is. It's because he knows that he would lose which in itself proves that he doesn't have the mandate of the people. Would you rather a civil war?

[nadavbkk]

only one way to save thailand from suicide

2005 Thai Emergency Situation Law

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/2005_Thai_Em...y_Situation_Law

Countersigned by:

Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin Shinawatra

Prime Minister

[termad]

I am not buying that it would have been impossible, or is still impossible, to crack down using normal riot control measures mixed with mass arrests. Yes, there will be casualties but the reds are begging for it, so what is the alternative, caving in to this anarchic mob? If the reds turn lethal, lethal response is legally justified. Any civilized country would have stopped this madness LONG AGO, and yes, I know Thailand is limited this way.

They didn't stop the PAD's Suvarnabhumi siezure and at the time their numbers were only about 30,000. Also I doubt that the Yellow Shirts would have taken on the Army. The Red Shirts however would do so. So what's best, dead Red shirts and Soldiers on the streets possibly followed by protracted civil war or put the question to the people through an election? There is only one answer.

If it was possible to have a fair election at this time YES

But in your dreams this will ever happen

The mobs will become so big headed you will see nothing but Chaos

and an election that will be legal for at least 5 mins

then it will all start again, with the opposite side, with what ever colour is in fashion

My wife says her Thai fortune Teller says this is only the top of a giant iceberg

soon the one person who all the people love will move on

and then nothing will hold Thailand together

if the PM can not hold it now, he will have no chance in the near future

So Sad for the country I love so much, but must sit back and watch it implode

Why is it impossible to hold an Internationally monitored election now?