What If The Red Shirts Win?

[old wanderer]

I sit here on the side lines and observe my Thai wife through these trials and tribulations. I personally have no axe to grind.

1st my wife came from a small farming village in Issan. She was raised as thousands of other elder daughters, were it was more important to take care of her younger siblings than get any education....hence 4 years of Thai schools was all she attended. She left home at 15 to be a maid in BKK, came home at 22 and borrowed 250,000 baht from her rich uncle at a interest rate of 10% a month. Started a sewing company in BKK, and repaid the money in 7 months. We met and married when she was 29. One might expect her attitudes to be similar to what we see coming from Issan today,,,,but no....(We have now been married 14 years).

I was surprised when the yellow shirts started their protest a few years ago, that my wife kept ASTV on day and night. When they blocked Parliament she would sleep on the floor in-front of her ASTV. It was then I found out she had been at the 92 protest when all the students were killed. (Little did I relize I had married a political activist. Who would have expected this from a simple Issan girl?).

We now have what are described in the news as rural poor, and uneducated people demanding the government disband and allow an immediate election. If we look at history and what has happened in other countries in similar situations:

1. Mao led a peasant revolution against the government of China...Result...China got the government the "people" demanded, but their life certainly was not better and all the business, and professionals were turned into coolie labor, and private property vanished, being taken over by the "people's Government".

2. Rhodesia, with the strong backing of the USA and Brittan was forced into "democracy" allowing 1 vote 1 person,,,We now have a country called Zimbabwe, 50% unemployment, worthless currency with a 12,000% annual inflation rate. But the people have their "Peoples Government" with regular election...Somehow Mugabe seems to always win....

A lot of people on this board have been beating the drum for 1 person/1 vote, and when the PAD suggested "new politics" they went absolutely insane with the idea that everybody was not equal. But in truth are they??....Personally I would be in favor of a government system that gave everybody 1 vote, and if you paid taxes, a 2nd vote, or if you owned land a 2nd vote (either/or), if you employed more than 5 people and paid taxes on them, maybe a 3rd vote. (But this from an old man that started his own business at the age of 23, was wealthy a few years later, and had the government taking 6 figure taxes from me, so I freely admit I am some where to the right of Genghis Khan. ) In the USA (being tax time right now) it was announced 47% of the citizens pay no tax at all. Yet they have an equal vote, and why should they care what it cost, as they do not contribute.

So back to the situation in Thailand...Nobody will seriously argue that corruption is not rampant in elections. It is an expected way of life. Certainly in rural Thailand, it is not the person with the best ideas or campaign promises that will get the majority vote, but the person that offers the best price per vote. Yet if the majority simply vote the person that offers them the best deal what will become of the country? The "elite" as they are called in the press, will they just go along with the new government...(and lets leave Thaskin return out of this discussion and it really clouds the issues). I think not. Aynn Rand once wrote Atlas Shrugged about similar situations. (One of my favorite books.)

So back to my Issan wife and her activities...

1. I am certain she is the one and only none red shirt in her little village. When the PAD were having rallies we had one of our very rare fights...she wanted to return to Thailand and join the rallies. In the end she wired some 200,000 baht donation to them, rubbing my nose on the receipt and stating, "I fight for my King in my own way, with my own money"

2. Last year when we spent a month in Thailand she wanted to go to a Yellow Shirt rally somewhere a few hours outside of BKK> When we arrived, our driver we always use for the past 10 years was sort of a personal friend, was clearly uncomfortable. She fired him the next day because he supported the Red shirts.

3. Often times I have seen her loan money to people in villages around her family home. When we returned to visit with her family she had washed the yellow shirts we had worn at the rally a few nights before and hung then to dry. 2 people that both owed her money stopped by, I think to ask for more time, but when they saw the yellow shirts, they starting expressing some very negative words about the PAD. Normally she is a generous person and would have told them OK 2 more years, you work your land, give my 25% and save to pay me back. Well this time she told them "NO....Go ask Thakin to help you", took the land and kicked them off. I tried to talk to her a bit about this, but I have learned I do not get into fights over things that do not directly effect me. He mind was made up.."If these 2 buffalo brains do not love my King, then they should not have land in his Kingdom." Normally she is generous. A few years ago everybody in the village was in trouble about money, so she bought all the silk in the village to help them out. (We still have boxes of material sitting around).

What I have created is a capitalist, she makes her own money, has her own bank accounts, and a bunch of Chanotes. This divide between red and yellow is very deep. Thaskin did a good job of brainwashing the poor. I asked my mother-in-law how this street got paved in the village. "Thaskin loves us, and he is rich, so he paid for it". Might as well go an argue about religion because you cannot change their minds. It is a firmly held belief. The other end is the people that have business and do pay taxes in the Kingdom, are simply not going to allow themselves to be taxed and regulated into oblivion, and finally the 3rd part is the established military and politicians that for so many years have been fed by kickbacks and corruption, are not going to be changed as well.

The one thing that while it cannot be discussed openly, but should be remembered is Thailand is not a democracy, but a Constitutional Monarch. And while that presences is never discussed, it was that in itself that ended the similar problems in 1992. Never forget this is the Kingdom of Thailand.

I would invite other thoughtful discussion on how all this will play out. As for my wife's thoughts. This morning she stated "I hate this government. Too weak. If this was some other country or even Thaskin, they would have MADE the protesters obey the law. In a few months what ever happened will be forgotten." she went on the say, "Next year we will have elections, so the DAAD can wait until then if they think they can win". "What do they need to have happen today, that cannot wait until elections"?

And I think that makes the key point. What is it about Issan that is so urgent it demands the country be torn apart in strife, and the loss of life and injuries that could not wait until elections next year?

[simpathy]

dont tell people she a capitalist. TO PEOPLE here its like treason!!!!!!!!!!!

ahhh, you answere my question. when was the nexxt reg. election going to be held?

it all makes sense now. the reds have nothing but 500 baht as their guiding principle. i doubt the country is tearing apart because of the reds, they are just a nuisance!

Edited April 12, 2010 by simpathy

[Gary A]

We live upcountry in a small village. My wife is one of the VERY few yellow shirts. She pretty much lost interest in politics when she realized that the vast majority of politicians are corrupt to the core and value money much more than doing their jobs and helping the people. She rarely talks about politics but is now becoming active again and calls the red shirts stupid buffalo. She simply doesn't understand why the red shirts want to fight and cause problems. She is of the opinion that even if they win, they will gain nothing. They simply exchange one group of corrupt politicians for another.

Is she right in thinking there is no answer?

[Ulysses G.]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

[Meridian007]

dont tell people she a capitalist. TO PEOPLE here its like treason!!!!!!!!!!!

ahhh, you answere my question. when was the nexxt reg. election going to be held?

it all makes sense now. the reds have nothing but 500 baht as their guiding principle. i doubt the country is tearing apart because of the reds, they are just a nuisance!

Capitalism is okay, it's the megalomania of one capitalist that makes the current situation dangerous in my view. He has "lost face" and if given the chance at power here again, he will seek severe revenge. I think that in order to rule here, he will say that he is sorry, but the time for democracy is not now, (and many will agree, who are now supposedly fighting for it), and then he will remove it. From there, Thailand will either fall apart and begin to look like any number of failed states in Africa, or it will become a closed, centralized regime like that in Myanmar.

Somehow, this all needs a reset. I spoke to a good friend of mine, (he is Thai), who although he is an intellectual, supports the red shirts. A while ago, he said that he thinks the reset will only come with blood. Well, we've had blood, but the situation seems more dire than before. How much blood? Does Thailand have to become a failed state for twenty years or more before it gets better? (I mean real failed state, unlike those who say that Thailand already is. When roving gangs of armed killers and rapists start disassembling all of the infrastructure here, I'll classify it as failed)

The reds cannot offer any good policy plans other than money appearing by magic to pay the people who came out to protest, and bringing dear leader Thaksin back. How will this make the country better? Abhisit is not perfect by a long shot, (which I blame more on his coalition partners than him), but he created some stability that Thailand could have built on to catch up to its ASEAN partners with. The longer crap like this goes on, (and you must admit that the protesting of some crazed group will continue if there are snap elections. There will be reds or yellows in the streets no matter which side wins), the further Thailand falls behind Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Before Thaksin came in, Thailand was set to be the next "Asian Tiger" country. The `97 crisis killed that, but it was populist policies that he brought to Thailand that created the rift that has slowed Thailand's ability to recover like its neighbors have.

The next elections are scheduled for December 2011. The nine month, three month, 15 days garbage is all a struggle for who gets to influence the new leadership of the military. This is one of the things that must change, The military must ONLY support the government that is in power, not some faction in society. Whoever leads it must not have connections with any group, it must be a tool of the government, and nothing more.

To say that the reds on the street have only 500 baht as their guiding principle is just as shallow of a judgment as saying that they have democracy as their guiding principle. The deeper issue of motivation here is much lower on Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Whether these people understand democracy or not is irrelevant, these people are focused on the basic and safety needs of survival and comfort. They want food on the table, and a tv to watch. Right or wrong, Thaksin was smart to manipulate them by using populist policies to give them "democracy they can eat". This has had a lasting effect on their general psyche, and is why everything is focused on him. I don't believe he is the best way forward however, so I hope that something can be done with those earlier plans of bringing the former PMs together to work as mediators and facilitators for something new out of this.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Meridian007

[londonthai]

from where thailand is for the last few years, there can be only progress.

army and police would be moved further from the interference into running politics and courts.

general election would show what the public opinion is, so the majority can be heard.

the red win might empower the working class to struggle for more, whether it would be through the trade unions or an independent, democratically run party.

[simpathy]

so do the reds protest if they dont get their 500 baht?

[geriatrickid]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

Sadly, it is a point lost on many.

What would happen if visa rules were tightened ever so slightly with increases in minimum bank account values. Many people in Pattaya and my stinky town of Patong would be soiling their undergarments as they realized they had to leave, but did not have the resources to relocate.

[londonthai]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

no, only some farangs, maybe the majority (but not all) speaking against him.

they are almost all anonymous, from the cyberspace, some of them live permanently abroad.

whoever will at power within the near time, would have to be lenient to the whole society, including farangs - firstly they would have to get their vote in the general election and than not to go against the election manifesto.

the new government would have to establish tourist trust in thailand and same goes for the international community, so most probably they would welcome more foreigners to stay

Edited April 12, 2010 by londonthai

[simpathy]

you think thaksin is offended by what farangs say on internet forums

im sure he wont do anything to the detriment of farangs.

anyone know who pumps more baht into issan. taksin or FARANGS

[Meridian007]

from where thailand is for the last few years, there can be only progress.

army and police would be moved further from the interference into running politics and courts.

general election would show what the public opinion is, so the majority can be heard.

the red win might empower the working class to struggle for more, whether it would be through the trade unions or an independent, democratically run party.

Nice ideas, but a little too idealistic. It will take more than an election alone to achieve what you say, and it will take time. One election isn't going to magically turn this into a western democracy, with its well-hidden corruption, and surface focus on ethics. I wish that it could be like you say, but it won't happen like this. There needs to be constitutional and judicial reform before any elections. Then there needs to be an election that is possibly organized and monitored by an external state or organization. I've heard them say that the current government should be dissolved, and then the next government can do this, but that is an inefficient way to do it. Why disrupt the society more by government change now. It isn't as if Abhisit is some monster of a dictator, if you look at him objectively through international eyes. He is competent, (if ineffectual), and can serve out the amount of time it takes to reform the constitution and the judicial system.

@simpathy, please read rather than trolling.

[mizzi39]

I live in Issan, and can clearly tell you that not just the reds, but all parties are minorities. I have stated before that 99% of Thais just want to get on with their daily lives. Fortunately my in-laws feel this way. My mother in-law retired after teaching for almost 30 years, and my father in-law retired after spending 31 years in the military. Neither take sides, and this is the general consensus of the majority of the population, Issan included.

If things continue down this path I don't see anything happening aside from a military coup.

[Mosha]

It doesn't matter if the reds win, if they do, the other side kicks off. My wife is really blood thirsty just now. Turns on the box and says, I want to know if army kill all the red shirts yet. I make comments about the situation, but opinions are kept to myself. At least a coup might give the reds and yellows something to hate other than each other.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Mosha

[Insight]

you think thaksin is offended by what farangs say on internet forums

im sure he wont do anything to the detriment of farangs.

anyone know who pumps more baht into issan. taksin or FARANGS

He might be offended of being booted out of London.

The actions of Thaksin's militants have been observed by many this weekend and I don't think they'll be forgotten or forgiven any time soon. Elections right now might get the reds off the streets of BKK, but will ultimately be part of a formula for further chaos IMHO.

[Jingthing]

If the hard core Maoist/class warfare/smash the "elites" faction prevails in the chaos after a red shirt win, then they may kick out all the foreigners, not because of our speech, but because we are seen as elites with wealth that they deserve to steal. Our businesses, our real estate owned through dodgy legal tricks, our legally owned condos, our cars, our boats, and last but not least our bank accounts. Is this outcome probable if the reds prevail? Who knows? But it is certainly possible. Just look at history. I still remain amazed by some of the right wing type people who think supporting a group that has an intellectual foundation peopled by hard core Maoists is a cool thing to do.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Jingthing

[simpathy]

you dont think its cool? you support obama. im sure there are maoist, all kinds of ist in his administratinon.

[old wanderer]

Turns on the box and says, I want to know if army kill all the red shirts yet.

Well at least I know my wife is not the only one to feel that way.

A country (if it wishes to appear to be a country with a constitution and laws) simply cannot let a very small portion of the population dictate who can be in power and when you must hold elections. (Yes, I know some will point out the PAD, BUT it was the court, not the protest that brought down the regimes).

I can see nothing that is so urgent or life threatening that an election must be held before the scheduled time for it.

My wife says bring in the tanks and bull dozers, shove all the stages, bikes, taxis and trucks into the klong. Have elections next year and then what happens som nah nah, but at least it is a constitutional election.

[Jingthing]

you dont think its cool? you support obama. im sure there are maoist, all kinds of ist in his administratinon.

I don't think its cool. I think rationally. Obama is a slightly left of center moderate. In Europe, he would considered a conservative. The health plan he just passed is to the RIGHT of one proposed by right winger RICHARD NIXON (that is a fact, you can check it out). The red shirts have many leaders. Yes Thaksin is the key one but he may be fading. It is a fact that the only intellectual faction of the red shirts (the other factions have no intellectual/ideological foundation) consists of Maoists. This has NOTHING to do with Obama. It has more to do with Laos, Nepal, and historic China.

Totalitarian regimes of the far right and far left are often very similar in the pain and bloodshed they inflict on their OWN people.

Extremists on both polar sides are to be feared. I fear the red shirts may mean a move to extremism in Thailand.

The text cover is something about winning the war against the elites. Note how that worked out for China during their notorious cultural revolution.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Jingthing

[vicco]

It isn't as if Abhisit is some monster of a dictator, if you look at him objectively through international eyes. He is competent, (if ineffectual), and can serve out the amount of time it takes to reform the constitution and the judicial system.

[/quote

Nice guy, good education, very civil....but held hostage to a system which is just a veneer over a military controlled government. He may even want to make constitutional changes and fix the judicial system, but if he tries in any meaningful way the big hammer will come down on him...the one held by the folks who really run Thailand. It's the guys behind Abhisit that the Reds are after not him personally...even if they chant "Abhisit out" over and over...he is just the mouthpiece..the front man...not the real issue.

As to the alternatives.. ....I hear Ecuador is a nice enough place to live...and cheap

[mizzi39]

you dont think its cool? you support obama. im sure there are maoist, all kinds of ist in his administratinon.

No, they are called capitalist. The same as all other countries who ride on the back of the USA.

[simpathy]

obama would support los being led by left of center moderate maoists.

[Jingthing]

obama would support los being led by left of center moderate maoists.

If this is all a joke to you, that's cool, enjoy yourself. (Ba-bye.)

BTW, if the hard core Maoists (steal everything from the "elites") prevail, I know some of you think you are the "good" farangs they won't bother. Again, look at history. Assimilated German Jews (who of course felt much more German than Jewish) thought they were safe, only the super ethnic ones with the beards and forelocks would get the attention. In reality, the Nazis went for all Jews, especially the assimilated ones who tended to have more money and property they could steal property from. They didn't care at all about the speech of the Jews before the Nazis took power, or how "German" the Jews who thought they were safe were. Yes the Nazis were murderers, but before that, they were simply thieves. Again, EXTREMES of the right and left are very dangerous.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Jingthing

[slapout]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

Any feeling of self importance which many of us may have, is probably a moot point, we probably are way down the food chain, as to any notice from the people that run this country. When the farang companies/ big investors and businessmen start baling out, and a real threat is known/anticipated many of us will pack our bags and leave the same way/style we came here, just what we can transport in a couple checked bags and a carry on.

[evanson]

you think thaksin is offended by what farangs say on internet forums

im sure he wont do anything to the detriment of farangs.

anyone know who pumps more baht into issan. taksin or FARANGS

If you were here when he was first elected, you would have seen he did an awful lot to the detriment of farangs. Weekly changes to Visa regs at whim spring to mind.

[old wanderer]

you think thaksin is offended by what farangs say on internet forums

im sure he wont do anything to the detriment of farangs.

anyone know who pumps more baht into issan. taksin or FARANGS

If you were here when he was first elected, you would have seen he did an awful lot to the detriment of farangs. Weekly changes to Visa regs at whim spring to mind.

Thaskin = Thai rak Thai....(Thai's love Thai's). This is his party....xenophobic.....could be

Undeniable this is how he came to power.

[Jingthing]

you think thaksin is offended by what farangs say on internet forums

im sure he wont do anything to the detriment of farangs.

anyone know who pumps more baht into issan. taksin or FARANGS

If you were here when he was first elected, you would have seen he did an awful lot to the detriment of farangs. Weekly changes to Visa regs at whim spring to mind.

Extremist political powers aren't well known for their long term thinking. It they are coming to smash the elites and forcibly and instantly redistribute the wealth, actually the foreigners will be the EASIEST target. They can steal it all and then disappear us, simply by deporting us all on short notice. There was a report here that this information is already being spread among the red supporters, that along with a cash payout from Thaksin, the foreigners will ALL be ordered out.

[simpathy]

stop w the fear mongering

all you people need to know is that baht is being spread out among the downtrodden.you give poor baht they do what you say.

im telling ya all, nothing to worry about.

baht hasnt tanked!

[personchester]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

Sadly, it is a point lost on many.

What would happen if visa rules were tightened ever so slightly with increases in minimum bank account values. Many people in Pattaya and my stinky town of Patong would be soiling their undergarments as they realized they had to leave, but did not have the resources to relocate.

Yes, there is a possibility that under a new Thaksin government visa applications for farangs might become more difficult, particularly for Brits, since as we recall the British governement cancelled his visa and refused him re-admission, according to Thai culture this causes 'loss of face' he might therefore respond in a similar way to the Brits staying in Thailand, that is to say either kick them out, or make visa applications/renewals tantamount to climing Mount Everest.

[simon43]

... She fired him the next day because he supported the Red shirts...

OW, I do not want to pick a fight here, but that action by your 'yellow-shirt' wife is a clear example of why many people (Thai and farang) are sympathetic to the Red shirt movement.

If I had a driver, I would not remove his employment (and probably his source of income to support his family etc), simply because of his political leanings.

Simon

[Jingthing]

I am not fear mongering. I am trying to make more people aware of the Maoist intellectual foundations of the red shirt movement. You can find this yourself in the public record. Statements for example like, sometimes you need to destroy the entire country to start it over properly. Japan being destroyed by WW2 as an example. That kind of rhetoric may be even more radical than the Chinese Maoist cultural revolution.