Thai Political Violence Far From Over: Analysts

[NCFC]

I was discussing with a family relative a few days ago that Central World would be safe as this was owned by Thaksin supporters, as is BEC/Channel 3. So when CW went up in flames we assumed that this was the mob lashing out at the nearest symbols of wealth. But if that was so, then why was Paragon only superficially damaged, and places like Gaysorn and Erawan completely untouched? There does seem some selectivity to it.

Having said that, I have no idea who the poster is alluding to in the way of enemies of Thaksin's enemies. A little more information would be helpful.

[wsmoh]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I've talked with some Thai teachers at Chulalongkorn Univ (Red shirts) few days before the events in April 10th. They said the following "There has to be bloodshed, at least few hundreds have to die." When I asked them if they will join or any beloved one will join the riot to die, They said no. So, I asked "why do you want them to die." They said, "they have to die. We know things you do not know." After April 10th, I realized the fact they knew was the presence of the armed militants among the protesters. I never seen a person speaking happily about the potential death of his people that way. This is a personal experience, I am not asking anyone to credit or discredit. Just to share with you all.

[givenall]

Every time I hear that the poor are left behind with democracy in a same sentence I start laughing since they are oxymoron. If they want to carry the poor by the rest of the society then you need to have communism or socialism government.

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

[Xangsamhua]

"Who was the biggest enemy .... of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded." (http://patnpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/05/19-2553.html)

OK, I give up. Who was it?

[asiawatcher]

This kinda puts it all in perspective ...

And they call this a peaceful movement?

Listen to the red shirt leaders urging the protesters to burn down Bangkok and their own Provincial/Town/City Halls.

Nathawut's speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELNZFcYbYsM...feature=related

Translation from Thai to English

------------------------------

"If you seize power from us then we'll burn the whole country down. Burn it , burn everything my brothers! I'll take responsibility for everything. If they want to arrest anyone, tell them to come and arrest me. Burn it down!"

Arisaman's speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i74jX8rPcTM

Translation from Thai to English

-------------------------------------------

Each of you could bring 75 cc or 1 litre (of gasoline). With 1 million of us in Bangkok, we’ll have 1 million litre of gasoline. Guarantee Bangkok will turn into a sea of flame. Bangkok will definitely turn in to a sea of flame. Those of you who live in the country, it’s OK if you cannot join us. If anything happens, just gather at your provincial/city halls. No need to wait for order. Burn your provincial/city halls down to the ground. You also don’t need to use/carry weapons. When you see soldiers, go near them, 3 of you against one of them, tie them up, seize their guns and tie their hands. With this execution, I guarantee our red shirt mob will definitely win.

Enough said - I hope the authorities will charge these guys with acts of inciting riot, terrorism and then get to the source and take (whoever) down as well.

[bloopbloop212]

Surprisingly enough the name Thaksin still rings a bell here. For what I have been observing , Thanksin is History. Today is the Red . No one except the Reds themselves is going to seek justice for their friends , love ones , relatives and to those who die innocently without knowing what had hit them on the head.

They wants revenge and are after those who thinks they are above the law and ordered the shooting of hundreds or thousands of innocent victims.Everyone saw either on tv. or from web, how Sae Daeng was being assassinated by a sniper right at his temper.

The government can denied anything or having involvement in that action. Very clearly, Sae Daeng is an obstacle, celebrity , enemy and a threat to the government. Whoever holds the power and controlled the military is the one who gave the orders .

No one would think it is Thaksin or the Red protester. Probably they like to blame it on neighboring military who has done the job.

The ones who order the firing spree on the red protesters and the innocence highly believes they are above the law. They never thought of it as murder. Killing of innocence or another human is like having a cup of coffee over lunch. Because, I supposed they do it all the time and has gotten immune to it .

The reds now and future are a unified bunch of dangerous under ground guerrillas. They lead themselves and are revengeful to those who has murdered their comrades.

This will not end soon until the amart steps down and give way for a new election.

Bloop

[whybother]

Surprisingly enough the name Thaksin still rings a bell here. For what I have been observing , Thanksin is History. Today is the Red . No one except the Reds themselves is going to seek justice for their friends , love ones , relatives and to those who die innocently without knowing what had hit them on the head.

They wants revenge and are after those who thinks they are above the law and ordered the shooting of hundreds or thousands of innocent victims.Everyone saw either on tv. or from web, how Sae Daeng was being assassinated by a sniper right at his temper.

The government can denied anything or having involvement in that action. Very clearly, Sae Daeng is an obstacle, celebrity , enemy and a threat to the government. Whoever holds the power and controlled the military is the one who gave the orders .

No one would think it is Thaksin or the Red protester. Probably they like to blame it on neighboring military who has done the job.

The ones who order the firing spree on the red protesters and the innocence highly believes they are above the law. They never thought of it as murder. Killing of innocence or another human is like having a cup of coffee over lunch. Because, I supposed they do it all the time and has gotten immune to it .

The reds now and future are a unified bunch of dangerous under ground guerrillas. They lead themselves and are revengeful to those who has murdered their comrades.

This will not end soon until the amart steps down and give way for a new election.

Bloop

Yay for RED DEMOCRACY

[gemini81]

Every time I hear that the poor are left behind with democracy in a same sentence I start laughing since they are oxymoron. If they want to carry the poor by the rest of the society then you need to have communism or socialism government.

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

that is certainly the truth, as proved by history. the poor have risen, when they took the self initiative to do it. not these groups from the NE. They just wanna hang out, drink, gamble.

[asiawatcher]

Surprisingly enough the name Thaksin still rings a bell here. For what I have been observing , Thanksin is History. Today is the Red . No one except the Reds themselves is going to seek justice for their friends , love ones , relatives and to those who die innocently without knowing what had hit them on the head.

They wants revenge and are after those who thinks they are above the law and ordered the shooting of hundreds or thousands of innocent victims.Everyone saw either on tv. or from web, how Sae Daeng was being assassinated by a sniper right at his temper.

The government can denied anything or having involvement in that action. Very clearly, Sae Daeng is an obstacle, celebrity , enemy and a threat to the government. Whoever holds the power and controlled the military is the one who gave the orders .

No one would think it is Thaksin or the Red protester. Probably they like to blame it on neighboring military who has done the job.

The ones who order the firing spree on the red protesters and the innocence highly believes they are above the law. They never thought of it as murder. Killing of innocence or another human is like having a cup of coffee over lunch. Because, I supposed they do it all the time and has gotten immune to it .

The reds now and future are a unified bunch of dangerous under ground guerrillas. They lead themselves and are revengeful to those who has murdered their comrades.

This will not end soon until the amart steps down and give way for a new election.

Bloop

Good but one error - Min size of bullets by army is a 308 and that takes out half a football of anything in front of it. The 'execution' of Sae Daeng whilst talking to the NY Times reporter was a black shirt and most likely a .222. Army would have blown his head clean off and it had to be small calibre as he lived for 3 days before expiring. A 308 as said, he would be instantly removed from this life

From my General friends they tell me he was taken down as he was no longer listening to the commands of the reds so they executed him then blamed it on the Govt but there is no way they used small calibre. It was a hit from about 100 metres within the red camp. Forensics will verify. The executioner may never be known.

[ETatBKK]

Thai Political Violence Far From Over

everything has a start, a life and an end !

yet Thai political violence has just went through the 'start' phase and now develops oneself into invisible stage ( go nderground ) !

what the government did ( and did well, IMHO ) in last couple of weeks, just chased away first two participations of the messy red rally :

- poltical protesters, minority and most with DSI now

- pay-to-stay farmers, on the way home but anger deep inside

- violent rioters, still everywhere on stand by state

- cool blooded terrorists, ready to come any time

once another trigger* is engaged, all above would come back any time ( with their learnt experience ). you guess, next election !?

* the trigger power hstill active 'out there' !

Edited May 20, 2010 by ETatBKK

[animatic]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

If this speads which it will, all those in power in elite will be equal, skint and up for mob justice as nobody can ever trust thai court again. it is beginning of messy end for these previous untouchable because have been outed now by internet and modern technology. hope it is painful for them to lose their power and money. We see already names coming out and they will turn on each other as now (why gov is so change mind every 5 minutes and small men on CRES different every week) then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

<deleted>!

[Loaded]

Surprisingly enough the name Thaksin still rings a bell here. For what I have been observing , Thanksin is History. Today is the Red . No one except the Reds themselves is going to seek justice for their friends , love ones , relatives and to those who die innocently without knowing what had hit them on the head.

They wants revenge and are after those who thinks they are above the law and ordered the shooting of hundreds or thousands of innocent victims.Everyone saw either on tv. or from web, how Sae Daeng was being assassinated by a sniper right at his temper.

The government can denied anything or having involvement in that action. Very clearly, Sae Daeng is an obstacle, celebrity , enemy and a threat to the government. Whoever holds the power and controlled the military is the one who gave the orders .

No one would think it is Thaksin or the Red protester. Probably they like to blame it on neighboring military who has done the job.

The ones who order the firing spree on the red protesters and the innocence highly believes they are above the law. They never thought of it as murder. Killing of innocence or another human is like having a cup of coffee over lunch. Because, I supposed they do it all the time and has gotten immune to it .

The reds now and future are a unified bunch of dangerous under ground guerrillas. They lead themselves and are revengeful to those who has murdered their comrades.

This will not end soon until the amart steps down and give way for a new election.

Bloop

Good but one error - Min size of bullets by army is a 308 and that takes out half a football of anything in front of it. The 'execution' of Sae Daeng whilst talking to the NY Times reporter was a black shirt and most likely a .222. Army would have blown his head clean off and it had to be small calibre as he lived for 3 days before expiring. A 308 as said, he would be instantly removed from this life

From my General friends they tell me he was taken down as he was no longer listening to the commands of the reds so they executed him then blamed it on the Govt but there is no way they used small calibre. It was a hit from about 100 metres within the red camp. Forensics will verify. The executioner may never be known.

So the army wasn't capable of purchasing or using weapons with a caliber smaller than 308 - interesting but silly. He might well have been killed by reds and the only thing certain about Seh Daengs death is we will never know the truth although someone may eventually be convicted and executed for his murder.

[faranginexile]

With all the respect that is due the esteemed "analysts," they're wrong; the violence is, as a practical matter, over. Done. There may be an occasional flare or episode that will be attributed, rightly or wrongly, to Red vs. Yellow conflict, but the rage for this generation's protests has been essentially spent. Witness the 10 reds standing idly by as the barricades were removed by the authorities on the bridge in Chiang Mai.

But, hey, you can't blame the sages for their errant guessing. Their job is to tell us what we all just saw happen with our own eyes, and given the violence of the past week or so and the fact that stuff happens, the odds would have to favor more violence to come.

Only that's not what's happening or what we're seeing. Rather, the mood is more like the morning after a big wedding at which people behaved badly: best to put this behind us and pretend the best we can that none of it really happened.

[Old Man River]

If anybody here still argue that OP is wrong ill informed.

another bank just gone to raging fire in din Deang and army shoot and miss people lit fire. MCOT

For the record, this is not what the OP's post was about.

[momentumwaves]

"It's not the end of the conflict, it's just the beginning of another phase of war. Whatever you want to call it: civil war, guerrilla warfare, it's up to interpretation."

From the OP, this section is what caught my eye.

The game may morph from a peaceful way into an armed struggle.

[viking75]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

If this speads which it will, all those in power in elite will be equal, skint and up for mob justice as nobody can ever trust thai court again. it is beginning of messy end for these previous untouchable because have been outed now by internet and modern technology. hope it is painful for them to lose their power and money. We see already names coming out and they will turn on each other as now (why gov is so change mind every 5 minutes and small men on CRES different every week) then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

<deleted>!

A better briefer post from you today. however you never read or learn. i answer above to another ingoramus who not see that this shooting shown on 3 popular tv station this morning.

see many hide head in page of Nation propaganda sheet.

up to you if you want to remain unable to debate proper with others.

[Crushdepth]

Personally I expect Thaksin to make good on his implied threat of an insurgent campaign. I don't think it will help him though. Occupying the city centre was ok by many, but the post-surrender arson was a PR disaster that has significantly damaged the movement.

There's plenty of red households in my street and today there's not a scrap of red in sight. They are embarrassed and don't want to talk about it.

[Old Man River]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

I understand the assumption but I have a theory behind this - Thaksin made a boast within the last 7 days he had a trump card. It was fairly obvious the army were going to shut the stages down and when they did two things happened.

1 - satellites were set up to draw troops away from the main stages - to thin ranks (presumably) which is an old army trick - spread the aggressors thinly etc and then that would prolong the 'battle' but the inevitable would happen - but

2 - I think the 'hits' have been carefully orchestrated - they hit the thai economy by sabotage of banks, media and international perception of collapse of retail showing nothing is safe by taking down Central World etc. The banks where all the 'seized' assets belonged were a follow on to Bangkok Bank where Thaksin had most of his funds. The additional banks were where the money trail list held their cash assets. The hits on the stock exchange and narcotics bureau, and civil district buildings et al were a direct undermining activity aimed purely at causing international reassessment and condemnation.

Whoever did this is committing the gravest terrorist act and accordingly should be arrested, charged and removed from society but it is all a bit too covert at this point. I would certainly start with Thaksin and work back. I also think this is an Interpol matter now as no way would it be intelligent to have Thaksin brought back to Thailand as he would create riots simply by being here through the misguided followers.

I don't think we will ever get a full picture of who was behind this. Anyway, Thaksin will take the brunt of the blame, hence, I doubt he will be visiting Thailand anytime soon.

My question is what happens now? In order for the Reds to win, they have to either take over the whole country or win an election and it is easier to win an election. They have succeeded in destabilizing the country, but they are no closer to control than they were when they started. Thaksin talked of guerrilla tactics, but again, to what end? They will still have to win an election.

So what now?

Edited May 20, 2010 by Old Man River

[ovaltina]

Every time I hear that the poor are left behind with democracy in a same sentence I start laughing since they are oxymoron. If they want to carry the poor by the rest of the society then you need to have communism or socialism government.

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

*Applause!*

In simple terms, it all comes down to human energy doesn't it. How much energy did they waste travelling all the way down here, sitting on red-hot pavements in the summer heat for 9 weeks, drawing their own blood for ''paintings'', street battles, dancing in tents etc.etc. That is a whole hel_l of a lot of actual real energy.

If that energy were put into buildings, setting up home workshops, teaching kids important home skills cooking/weaving/carpentry stuff you can actually do when there's lots of forests. Community projects, grassroots enterprises. Kalahari tribesmen put their scant energy to good use in crafts and communal education, and they've got far worse environmental situation.

The last 9 weeks have just been such a huge waste of energy, even overlooking the damage and death caused by the red mob, its just tragic to think what they could have done instead with all that energy back home.

[yoshiwara]

Personally I expect Thaksin to make good on his implied threat of an insurgent campaign. I don't think it will help him though. Occupying the city centre was ok by many, but the post-surrender arson was a PR disaster that has significantly damaged the movement.

There's plenty of red households in my street and today there's not a scrap of red in sight. They are embarrassed and don't want to talk about it.

Vote to have your neighbourhood burnt down.

I don't think so.

Insurgent campaign? No again.

Did the people of Bangkok rise up to join the reds?

Did they heck!

[george]

All you need to know about curfew and state of emergency

Greg Lamphear talks to foregners about state of emergency and curfew in Thailand

Video:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thaivisa-Lau...an-t367441.html

[ovaltina]

Personally I expect Thaksin to make good on his implied threat of an insurgent campaign. I don't think it will help him though. Occupying the city centre was ok by many, but the post-surrender arson was a PR disaster that has significantly damaged the movement.

There's plenty of red households in my street and today there's not a scrap of red in sight. They are embarrassed and don't want to talk about it.

Vote to have your neighbourhood burnt down.

I don't think so.

Insurgent campaign? No again.

Did the people of Bangkok rise up to join the reds?

Did they heck!

The kid near my home whose stall has been selling Thaksin T-Shirts, black steel-capped army-boots, and knuckledusters (for democracy!) for the last 7 weeks, has got them all in a little Budget Bin under the counter now lol, at 20% price. He never seemed to make a thriving trade in them to be honest, even at the height of the japes.

[hammered]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

I understand the assumption but I have a theory behind this - Thaksin made a boast within the last 7 days he had a trump card. It was fairly obvious the army were going to shut the stages down and when they did two things happened.

1 - satellites were set up to draw troops away from the main stages - to thin ranks (presumably) which is an old army trick - spread the aggressors thinly etc and then that would prolong the 'battle' but the inevitable would happen - but

2 - I think the 'hits' have been carefully orchestrated - they hit the thai economy by sabotage of banks, media and international perception of collapse of retail showing nothing is safe by taking down Central World etc. The banks where all the 'seized' assets belonged were a follow on to Bangkok Bank where Thaksin had most of his funds. The additional banks were where the money trail list held their cash assets. The hits on the stock exchange and narcotics bureau, and civil district buildings et al were a direct undermining activity aimed purely at causing international reassessment and condemnation.

Whoever did this is committing the gravest terrorist act and accordingly should be arrested, charged and removed from society but it is all a bit too covert at this point. I would certainly start with Thaksin and work back. I also think this is an Interpol matter now as no way would it be intelligent to have Thaksin brought back to Thailand as he would create riots simply by being here through the misguided followers.

I don't think we will ever get a full picture of who was behind this. Anyway, Thaksin will take the brunt of the blame, hence, I doubt he will be visiting Thailand anytime soon.

My question is what happens now? In order for the Reds to win, they have to either take over the whole country or win an election and it is easier to win an election. They have succeeded in destabilizing the country, but they are no closer to control than they were when they started. Thaksin talked of guerrilla tactics, but again, to what end? They will still have to win an election.

So what now?

Newin becomes crucial in parlaimentary games and he isnt going to favour Thaksin under any circumstances. His family were also targetted by reds last night

My guess it will; go two ways. the political reds will try to play polticial games ie calm down be nice and hope enough ar eignored ala LCM51 today shutting their radio and sending their gang home. The other side will be the rangers, forest dudes, mafiosa and street gangs who work for the PTP mafia and the PTP generals who face ruin at the moment. They will continue to wage a violent campaign. While there may be soem conspiracy developing over who did the arson enough of it can be traced direcvtly to the red klong toei gangs and the regioanl stuff was red mobs. Thjat goes back to the the red leaders statements and ultimately Thaksin. He wont be coming home any tiome soon

There is also going to be a strong demand for security even if it means rights reduced (the 9/11 effect). The army standing for providing security is high (they cleared the reds) while the police standing is extremel;y low (they stood around and did little and the arson was when control was handed to them)

My guess is the ones coming out of this advantaged are the military and Newin. The new DFems are wrecked with their base and the reds are in disarray and disagreement. We already have red leaders admitting Thaksin funded them and considering they called for an arson campaign that means he funded terrorism, so he is also a loser. The other winner is whoever can provide protection and security as the rich and the middle and lower classes who wanbt this will not just be willing to give up some rights but will also in the cases of the rich be willing to pay for it. Thaksin and his allies just spent a fortune on this latest escapapde and it failed and now a lot of them have money and businesses legally locked up. The mnoney game has moved masively to the anti-Thaksin camps advantage. However, they will need now to address issues affecting the poor even if they only target the lower Isaan and lower north in the short term as that will give them a big electoral victory if they pull it off. In the menatime Thaksin and his main allies have to keep PTP MPs onside particualalry those who could easily win under a BJT or Dem banner and who would be able to replenish the funds they have disastrously lost inb the last year or so by making the switch.

Considering quite how many high ranking PTP people are also on the financial list therfe must also be a question of whether the party will even make it to the next election, which again gives Newin etc a big opportunity to poach sitting MPs.

[khunjamespittman]

Every time I hear that the poor are left behind with democracy in a same sentence I start laughing since they are oxymoron. If they want to carry the poor by the rest of the society then you need to have communism or socialism government.

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

It is really interesting that I see people who claim to be soo knowledgeable here in TV speaking disrespectfully to Thai who have not been give a chance to get a better education form the government. In this day and age most civilized people view the right to an education as a human right. If the people like yourself have so much disrespect for the uneducated poor in Thailand it would be far more productive is you were make an effort the demand that the Thai government guarantee a good education for all its citizens instead of trying to make yourself superior by demeaning the poor and uneducated by calling them names. Try helping the Thai people not tear them down. On numerous occasions you have been asked to stick to a topic and stop your rants and name calling. We could allhave a better discourse if Everyone was asked to adhere to these curtesies.

Regards,

[gregb]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I have a rather difficult time accepting this. Not because I would put it past anyone to use this situation for their own interest, but simply because if it was true Thaksin should be out screaming bloody murder.

He should be releasing hundreds of videos and statements saying it wasn't him, and telling any red shirts to go home and stop burning things. They would listen to him.

Where are his pleas? He seems quite content with the mayhem. He even predicted it. Also, this is kind of quick to come out. We still have several more days of possible arson attacks. How do we know ASTV won't be torched? Unless the person releasing this fanciful position is the same one coordinating the torching.

If anything, I suspect Thaksin himself chose these targets for a reason. Maybe there was an insurance angle to it. I don't know. I suspect the real reasons will leak out over the next few years as the whole story unfolds. Probably impossible to say right now.

For me, this theory is just too convenient for the red shirts, who are otherwise looking for a way to deflect blame from themselves. When you start bringing up secret conspiracy theories, remember that the knife cuts both ways. Unless you are prepared with a little more solid evidence, the only people who are likely to believe this story are the reds themselves. That may have been the intent all along.

Burn the city and cause mayhem, but make the up country red supporters believe it was a "third hand" so you don't destroy the movement. Much more likely scenario in my opinion.

[Old Man River]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I have a rather difficult time accepting this. Not because I would put it past anyone to use this situation for their own interest, but simply because if it was true Thaksin should be out screaming bloody murder.

He should be releasing hundreds of videos and statements saying it wasn't him, and telling any red shirts to go home and stop burning things. They would listen to him.

Where are his pleas? He seems quite content with the mayhem. He even predicted it. Also, this is kind of quick to come out. We still have several more days of possible arson attacks. How do we know ASTV won't be torched? Unless the person releasing this fanciful position is the same one coordinating the torching.

If anything, I suspect Thaksin himself chose these targets for a reason. Maybe there was an insurance angle to it. I don't know. I suspect the real reasons will leak out over the next few years as the whole story unfolds. Probably impossible to say right now.

For me, this theory is just too convenient for the red shirts, who are otherwise looking for a way to deflect blame from themselves. When you start bringing up secret conspiracy theories, remember that the knife cuts both ways. Unless you are prepared with a little more solid evidence, the only people who are likely to believe this story are the reds themselves. That may have been the intent all along.

Burn the city and cause mayhem, but make the up country red supporters believe it was a "third hand" so you don't destroy the movement. Much more likely scenario in my opinion.

The real originator of this on his twitter page (not the guy who posted it) has backed off from it. He has received a lot of flak along with additional info that has poked holes in his conspiracy theory. He now goes with Thaksin as the culprit along with everybody else.

[Xangsamhua]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I have a rather difficult time accepting this. Not because I would put it past anyone to use this situation for their own interest, but simply because if it was true Thaksin should be out screaming bloody murder.

He should be releasing hundreds of videos and statements saying it wasn't him, and telling any red shirts to go home and stop burning things. They would listen to him.

Where are his pleas? He seems quite content with the mayhem. He even predicted it. Also, this is kind of quick to come out. We still have several more days of possible arson attacks. How do we know ASTV won't be torched? Unless the person releasing this fanciful position is the same one coordinating the torching.

If anything, I suspect Thaksin himself chose these targets for a reason. Maybe there was an insurance angle to it. I don't know. I suspect the real reasons will leak out over the next few years as the whole story unfolds. Probably impossible to say right now.

For me, this theory is just too convenient for the red shirts, who are otherwise looking for a way to deflect blame from themselves. When you start bringing up secret conspiracy theories, remember that the knife cuts both ways. Unless you are prepared with a little more solid evidence, the only people who are likely to believe this story are the reds themselves. That may have been the intent all along.

Burn the city and cause mayhem, but make the up country red supporters believe it was a "third hand" so you don't destroy the movement. Much more likely scenario in my opinion.

The real originator of this on his twitter page (not the guy who posted it) has backed off from it. He has received a lot of flak along with additional info that has poked holes in his conspiracy theory. He now goes with Thaksin as the culprit along with everybody else.

I'm looking at this page: http://patnpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/05/19-2553.html

I don't see any retraction.

(And I still don't know who he's talking about.)

[blantore]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I have a rather difficult time accepting this. Not because I would put it past anyone to use this situation for their own interest, but simply because if it was true Thaksin should be out screaming bloody murder.

He should be releasing hundreds of videos and statements saying it wasn't him, and telling any red shirts to go home and stop burning things. They would listen to him.

Where are his pleas? He seems quite content with the mayhem. He even predicted it. Also, this is kind of quick to come out. We still have several more days of possible arson attacks. How do we know ASTV won't be torched? Unless the person releasing this fanciful position is the same one coordinating the torching.

If anything, I suspect Thaksin himself chose these targets for a reason. Maybe there was an insurance angle to it. I don't know. I suspect the real reasons will leak out over the next few years as the whole story unfolds. Probably impossible to say right now.

For me, this theory is just too convenient for the red shirts, who are otherwise looking for a way to deflect blame from themselves. When you start bringing up secret conspiracy theories, remember that the knife cuts both ways. Unless you are prepared with a little more solid evidence, the only people who are likely to believe this story are the reds themselves. That may have been the intent all along.

Burn the city and cause mayhem, but make the up country red supporters believe it was a "third hand" so you don't destroy the movement. Much more likely scenario in my opinion.

The real originator of this on his twitter page (not the guy who posted it) has backed off from it. He has received a lot of flak along with additional info that has poked holes in his conspiracy theory. He now goes with Thaksin as the culprit along with everybody else.

I'm looking at this page: http://patnpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/05/19-2553.html

I don't see any retraction.

(And I still don't know who he's talking about.)

See the retraction on his twitter page: http://twitter.com/KhunPleum

[pongosnodgrass]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I have a rather difficult time accepting this. Not because I would put it past anyone to use this situation for their own interest, but simply because if it was true Thaksin should be out screaming bloody murder.

He should be releasing hundreds of videos and statements saying it wasn't him, and telling any red shirts to go home and stop burning things. They would listen to him.

Where are his pleas? He seems quite content with the mayhem. He even predicted it. Also, this is kind of quick to come out. We still have several more days of possible arson attacks. How do we know ASTV won't be torched? Unless the person releasing this fanciful position is the same one coordinating the torching.

If anything, I suspect Thaksin himself chose these targets for a reason. Maybe there was an insurance angle to it. I don't know. I suspect the real reasons will leak out over the next few years as the whole story unfolds. Probably impossible to say right now.

For me, this theory is just too convenient for the red shirts, who are otherwise looking for a way to deflect blame from themselves. When you start bringing up secret conspiracy theories, remember that the knife cuts both ways. Unless you are prepared with a little more solid evidence, the only people who are likely to believe this story are the reds themselves. That may have been the intent all along.

Burn the city and cause mayhem, but make the up country red supporters believe it was a "third hand" so you don't destroy the movement. Much more likely scenario in my opinion.

The real originator of this on his twitter page (not the guy who posted it) has backed off from it. He has received a lot of flak along with additional info that has poked holes in his conspiracy theory. He now goes with Thaksin as the culprit along with everybody else.

The original author of these thoughts is Nattakorn Devakula, a former candidate for Bangkok governor. Please go to the original source twitter.com/khunpleum and you will see that tonight he is trying to present the opposing view. He admits that it's a work in progress. I'll give him credit that he's trying to be balanced but maybe that was a bad move to leave the argument hanging over to one side overnight, so it could be siezed upon by those whom it would suit. Unfortunately, that's the fallibility of Twitter's 140 characters. You can't present a very long argument. It also shows the fallibility of all these amateur analyses and conspiracy theories - that none of us really know and understand enough - the whole picture is simply not there for us to see. Including all those academics.

[bkk75]

Friend passed me this link on Facebook and I wanted to share this because I think it is a thoughtful and true understanding of what really happened in the past 2 months and even years.

============================================

Bangkok: To Misunderstand is the Greatest LossShare

Today at 11:48am

Dear Friends,

Yesterday was a day of tragedy for our city and our country. Not since the sacking of our ancient city of Ayudhya has Thailand come under attack in such a manner. And just as then, everything burned. Only this time, it was our own fellow Thais, bred of hatred and greed that did this.

After government forces broke through to the main protest site at Rajaprasong, and the remaining core Red leaders surrendered to authorities, there began a well organized and systematic series of arson attacks on major commercial, financial, and government buildings. The list is long and by now well documented on the front pages of every newspaper in the country. What I found of note was that during the surrender speech, it was the protesters who were most unhappy with the declaration of the 'end' of the fight. Let us be very clear, that after months and some might say years of political and emotional brainwashing, the Red masses now had a mind of their own, and it was apparent that these leaders were quick to wash their hands free of responsibility for the incitement they had created, manipulated and funded for the past three years.

So I ask you all now to once again understand the situation for what it is. This was never a fight for democracy, for fair elections, or even a fight to destroy some invisible barrier against the poor built by the rich. Barriers that never existed in this country beyond the realities of any other developing nation. Last night was the true colors of the movement showing itself for all its shamelessness. This fight was always about political manipulation of the worst kind. It was about a continued and heavily financed campaign of disinformation that lead people to their deaths on the streets of Bangkok and then the blame was cast back at the government. The government did not lead people into the streets. The government did not tell people to set buildings on fire and endanger entire communities. The government did not use force first. These are undeniable. You cannot pose there waving the Thai flag in your hand, claiming to be fighting for this country and at the same time stand by and laugh, clap and dance (as witnessed on TV) as you set this country on fire. That is an image that will forever be engrained into the minds of many Thais.

I was appalled to read some of the comments on the websites of many major news organizations who covered Thailand. I will not begin the debate here about the lack of impartial coverage, that has been well highlighted and argued. What shocks me is the narrow mindedness of individuals who commented from around the world on our government's authoritarian 'crack down'. Not only un-educated individuals, but even the audacity of an organization like Amnesty International, some of whose members I actually consider my friends to make an uninformed, and quite frankly dangerous statement saying that the government was using unnecessary force on unarmed, peaceful protesters. This is the kind of lie that undermines the noteworthy principles of Amnesty international. The organization's country head should be sacked for writing such blatant rubbish, thereby compromising his own mission in Thailand. Do these people have eyes? Do they not see that this government tried so hard to use peaceful means for the last two months to the point where their stance became their biggest weakness? I have never in all my years of living in numerous countries, seen any government who had the patience (justified or not) to deal with such violent and ill-intentioned protesters as peacefully as I have seen here. Not until the country had reach its breaking point, did the government crack down. And I say now, that the majority of people here feel deep down to their core that these actions were absolutely and completely justified.

The tragedy is the misunderstanding. That is what got our country into this mess, and it is also what makes fools of people who comment on things they know nothing about. They think because some poor farmer stands in the middle of the road crying out 'democracy' that that is a battle of the disadvantaged for justice. But if they knew that that farmer sold his land under a scheme by the former PM to foreigners, and now was left only with the remnants of the cash he earned and is angry at this government for not subsidizing the rice prices because he is now only a middle man without land. They foolishly believe that that farmer was systematically prevented from access to opportunities... when in fact he robbed himself of those opportunities when he supported a man who lied to him, who gave him 'tea money' for his vote. And he looks to us as the one who wronged him. He and his like wronged themselves a long time ago. They shout at the coup plotters. They decry that this government is backed by military force. But the reality is democracy is a fluid state of governance. And especially one that is still maturing like Thailand, you cannot stick to absolutes. Remember, America was built on the ashes of a violent revolution, and even after hundreds of years, people in the United Kingdom still had to form a government out of coalition. Democracy is varied. Don't stand there and point fingers at this administration saying they never won an election. Winning an election is only as worthy as the transparency of those votes.

What we can all learn from this is that sometimes what you most want to achieve can be destroyed by your actions. These Red leaders for months have threatened violence on a grand scale in order to change the 'rule' of this country. Well in a moment of desperation their gang of supporters achieved that last night. Violence on a grand scale that hasn't been seen in Thailand in over 200 years. But they have destroyed their goal. Thais have a knack for friendliness and forgiveness, this is a well known trait. But last night, nation wide was fomented a deep sense of resolute purpose. That many people will never forgive these so-called protesters for what they did. What their actions represent, and all who supported them.

Thais are a resilient people, what was burned can be rebuilt and Bangkok will set about doing just that. But these protesters, what they fought for they will now begin to pay a very long and heavy price. For there will be no sympathy, or compassion, or understanding for their suffering in the future. Which is a loss indeed... Because compassion is something we Thais always have for one another. Maybe one day we will come to understand how this one man Thaksin Shinawatra, literally because of his own bitterness managed to nearly destroy a country. That will probably be about the same time I begin to understand how some people could champion his cause as something that was justified, when it was never at all. This man hid behind the veil of democracy and blinded an entire swath of our population.

The tragedy is all those poor souls out there who are only too happy to give their 2 cents worth on a matter they didn't know anything about.

I pity them. But as for Bangkok, we will survive and flourish once again.