The Race To 20 Thb Per Dollar

[ExpatJ]

Easy : Tourists will not see Thailand as heaven anymore as prices will be as high as many other tourists spots ,export will fall as other countries will be more competitive such as Vietnam,Cambodia etc ... Investments will drop as opening a factory here will be more expensive than many neighboring countries. See how the country growth tremendously during the high USD/Thai baht starting 1997. my company can stop exporting and dismiss half of the workers. This is the possible scenario if the bath continue to raise and the USD to fall . Import product will flow from China and other places etc .... I dont see where the figures of Export showing a growth of 30%is coming from. Thailand already export much less rice than before because of the price.

The problem is there is no alternative to Thailand amoung neighboring countries for large scale foreign investment. Malaysia and Singapore- wages costs are too high. Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos are even more corrupt than Thailand and have pitiful infrastructure. So even if the baht increases, thailand will remain the no 1 choice for large scale foreign investment for some time.

Im paid in dollars so a strong baht is a pain! (Though i did transfer 50% of my cash saving from $ to baht in January)

[bermondburi]

In fact with the pound being so low as well I have recently been sending Thai Baht back to England because it has been buying so many pounds.

How do you send it back?

I'm thinking of sending 100-200,000thb back to Ireland. Will probably be using it here again in a few years but as 100k is = 2,500e now, as opposed to 2,000, it probably worth sending a few 100k home.

What's the best way to minimize costs and exchange rate losses?

All I do is send the money from my Thai bank account to my bank account in England. My Thai bank ( Krung Thai) charges me a flat fee of 500 Baht, I think some other banks are cheaper, they convert the money into pounds and then my bank in England charges me a fee for receiving the money. It's not much and that will probably depend on your bank. It normally takes about three or four days for the money to get there. I have to go into the bank with my passport and the first time I did it, it did take quite a while, about half an hour, but now they know me now and my details of previous transactions are on the computer so it is a lot quicker. With exchange rates the way they are, I think now is a good time to be sending money back. It just depends on whether you can wait for a few years maybe before things go up again to change it back. It's no different to what banks do on a much larger scale over a much smaller difference in a much shorter time frame.

[jazzbo]

Kuhn B. -- Use your own judgement on when to change money to the other. No thanks... I'll use PIMCO's judgment.

[Chunky1]

it's fun everyday seeing how much i made on my gold holdings.

[phomsanuk]

"Steady capital inflows boosted the baht's value to a 26-month high at Bt31.21 relative to the US dollar this Wednesday" "The threat of a serious weakening of major currencies - which some analysts see as inevitable with the greenback falling below THB25:USD1 - is heightening these fears."

When I moved here it was 45, do the math.

But it's still cheap compared to the west.

The peso is also moving from about 60 5 yrs ago to 45.

Vietnam is the only country where you get 'More bang for the buck' 17K to 19K

[sabaijai]

I earn baht, so a dollar that weak might send me to the USA on a shopping spree

[jazzbo]

... just as with the stock market, you haven't 'made' anything until you sell.

[bermondburi]

Kuhn B. -- Use your own judgement on when to change money to the other. No thanks... I'll use PIMCO's judgment.

Up to you mate.

[jazzbo]

Actually, it isn't up to me but that's a whole 'nother story.

[Chunky1]

"The government's measures are not directed towards weakening the baht, but to ease the impacts from the strong baht. We believe that the baht would not weaken in the short term, and we need to send a message that how the public and private sector must adjust their policies in line with this trend. The government has done something concerning public debt. We will also promote machinery and technology imports. All the measures will ease small operators' troubles and should somewhat slow down inflows," he said.

Like a dog nipping at an Elephant's toe.

[mahtin]

Can anybody play or is this US exclusive?

One tries to be polite.

[roamer]

Easy : Tourists will not see Thailand as heaven anymore as prices will be as high as many other tourists spots ,export will fall as other countries will be more competitive such as Vietnam,Cambodia etc ... Investments will drop as opening a factory here will be more expensive than many neighboring countries. See how the country growth tremendously during the high USD/Thai baht starting 1997. my company can stop exporting and dismiss half of the workers. This is the possible scenario if the bath continue to raise and the USD to fall . Import product will flow from China and other places etc .... I dont see where the figures of Export showing a growth of 30%is coming from. Thailand already export much less rice than before because of the price.

The problem is there is no alternative to Thailand amoung neighboring countries for large scale foreign investment. Malaysia and Singapore- wages costs are too high. Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos are even more corrupt than Thailand and have pitiful infrastructure. So even if the baht increases, thailand will remain the no 1 choice for large scale foreign investment for some time.

Im paid in dollars so a strong baht is a pain! (Though i did transfer 50% of my cash saving from $ to baht in January)

Simply not true. In 2009 FDI by Taiwanese companies alone in Vietnam was over 200 times what it was in LOS (and you can expect that figure to go on rising following the problems earlier this year. The days when Thailand was the only place in the region open for business are gone. Your claim that Vietnam is even more corrupt than LOS is laughable, if local government officials got up to even 10% of the practices that their Thai counterparts engage in they would be for the chop. Literally.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_26/b4184012382639.htm

This fall, Intel will open a $1 billion chip assembly and test plant near Ho Chi Minh City. Taiwanese laptop PC manufacturer Compal also has a new factory in Vietnam. Arthur Chiao, chairman of the Taiwan Electronics & Electrical Appliances Assn., on June 7 said his group is helping Taiwanese companies find new manufacturing sites in Vietnam in the wake of rising labor costs on the mainland.

Political tensions in Thailand next door also are leading companies to Vietnam. Calm has returned to the Thai capital after May's deadly confrontations in Bangkok between antigovernment protesters and the military, but it was one of many political outbursts in Thailand over the years. Pleasanton (Calif.)-based Polycom buys 80 percent of its video-conferencing equipment from Thailand, says Hansjoerg Wagner, head of the company's Asia operations: "With all the political issues that are ongoing there, we are looking at contingency plans," he says. Vietnam, one of Polycom's (PLCM) fastest-growing markets in Asia, "is on our target list" as an alternative.

[Ulysses G.]

Your claim that Vietnam is even more corrupt than LOS is laughable,

It does not sound like you have ever been there. His "claim" is correct.

[SeanMoran]

It's like deja vu 1997 all over again.

[rickthailand]

why? you could have more bank accounts in thailand or outside dont need to touch it

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

Doesn't work that way. If you left your 400 or 800k sitting there, it would suggest you are working/acquiring funds onsite and you'd possibly be denied extension next year.

[Ulysses G.]

It's like deja vu 1997 all over again.

Except backwards.

Edited October 12, 2010 by Ulysses G.

[jazzbo]

Sure anyone can 'play' ... and 'play' is the operative word ... there are a bunch of guys herein for whom every drop in the $US somehow justifies their notions of FIAT money and non-Keynesian economics and how they would like the world to work ... the Madame DeFarges of the economic realm...

[MJP]

I did not say how you would, just said you will. May or may not be in here in Thailand. But you will adjust.

Will the Thai's adjust?

60% of GDP dependent on exports. 6% (officially) on tourism. My friends in the tourism trade say it's dead.

Currency war on on. I suspect a sudden and massive intervention is coming. 

[nocturn]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

and the order would still be wrong when delivered.

[ExpatJ]

Easy : Tourists will not see Thailand as heaven anymore as prices will be as high as many other tourists spots ,export will fall as other countries will be more competitive such as Vietnam,Cambodia etc ... Investments will drop as opening a factory here will be more expensive than many neighboring countries. See how the country growth tremendously during the high USD/Thai baht starting 1997. my company can stop exporting and dismiss half of the workers. This is the possible scenario if the bath continue to raise and the USD to fall . Import product will flow from China and other places etc .... I dont see where the figures of Export showing a growth of 30%is coming from. Thailand already export much less rice than before because of the price.

The problem is there is no alternative to Thailand amoung neighboring countries for large scale foreign investment. Malaysia and Singapore- wages costs are too high. Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos are even more corrupt than Thailand and have pitiful infrastructure. So even if the baht increases, thailand will remain the no 1 choice for large scale foreign investment for some time.

Im paid in dollars so a strong baht is a pain! (Though i did transfer 50% of my cash saving from $ to baht in January)

Simply not true. In 2009 FDI by Taiwanese companies alone in Vietnam was over 200 times what it was in LOS (and you can expect that figure to go on rising following the problems earlier this year. The days when Thailand was the only place in the region open for business are gone. Your claim that Vietnam is even more corrupt than LOS is laughable, if local government officials got up to even 10% of the practices that their Thai counterparts engage in they would be for the chop. Literally.

http://www.businessw...84012382639.htm

This fall, Intel will open a $1 billion chip assembly and test plant near Ho Chi Minh City. Taiwanese laptop PC manufacturer Compal also has a new factory in Vietnam. Arthur Chiao, chairman of the Taiwan Electronics & Electrical Appliances Assn., on June 7 said his group is helping Taiwanese companies find new manufacturing sites in Vietnam in the wake of rising labor costs on the mainland.

Political tensions in Thailand next door also are leading companies to Vietnam. Calm has returned to the Thai capital after May's deadly confrontations in Bangkok between antigovernment protesters and the military, but it was one of many political outbursts in Thailand over the years. Pleasanton (Calif.)-based Polycom buys 80 percent of its video-conferencing equipment from Thailand, says Hansjoerg Wagner, head of the company's Asia operations: "With all the political issues that are ongoing there, we are looking at contingency plans," he says. Vietnam, one of Polycom's (PLCM) fastest-growing markets in Asia, "is on our target list" as an alternative.

I could also cherry pick out companies that have invested more in Iraq, Afghanistan or Sudan than vietnam or Thailand. But doesnt really prove anything.

In vietnam the beaurocracy is also far worse that thailand (hard to imagine. but true). Also World Bank just noted that thailand is the 15th most easy country to do business in in the world (also surprised me this one).

Yes, vietnam is an upcoming country and in 5-10 years may even be ahead of thailand as an investment magnet- but its not there yet.

[roamer]

Your claim that Vietnam is even more corrupt than LOS is laughable,

It does not sound like you have ever been there. His "claim" is correct.

Actually my first visit to Vietnam was some 20 years ago, possibly you like many of your compatriots were there earlier, I however waited for a visa. I have continued to work with companies setting up in business in Vietnam who have encountered fewer problems in graft and corruption than in LOS in recent years. Even if you were to use the much criticised methodology of the Corruption Perceptions Index the difference in rankings between the two nations only amounts to a few decimal points. Corruption by its very nature is hidden and difficult to assess. Corruption is inherent in doing business in either country and to believe that the level of corruption in VN creates more of a barrier than it does in Thailand (the Op's point) is contradicted by the amount of FDI flowing into Vietnam, during 2007-9 third in Asia behind China & India.

[Ulysses G.]

Actually my first visit to Vietnam was some 20 years ago, possibly you like many of your compatriots were there earlier, I however waited for a visa.

No, you and I started visiting there at about the same time and I worked and lived in Hanoi for a while. I have a business here and friends with businesses there and there is no comparison. Vietnam is much worse.

[roamer]

Actually my first visit to Vietnam was some 20 years ago, possibly you like many of your compatriots were there earlier, I however waited for a visa.

No, you and I started visiting there at about the same time and I worked and lived in Hanoi for a while. I have a business here and friends with businesses there and there is no comparison. Vietnam is much worse.

We are going to have to differ here Ulysses. Whilst on a personal level I find corruption worse in VN, my experience when working with government depts is that it has vastly improved over the last 5 years or so. As I said, agree to differ.

[roamer]

Easy : Tourists will not see Thailand as heaven anymore as prices will be as high as many other tourists spots ,export will fall as other countries will be more competitive such as Vietnam,Cambodia etc ... Investments will drop as opening a factory here will be more expensive than many neighboring countries. See how the country growth tremendously during the high USD/Thai baht starting 1997. my company can stop exporting and dismiss half of the workers. This is the possible scenario if the bath continue to raise and the USD to fall . Import product will flow from China and other places etc .... I dont see where the figures of Export showing a growth of 30%is coming from. Thailand already export much less rice than before because of the price.

The problem is there is no alternative to Thailand amoung neighboring countries for large scale foreign investment. Malaysia and Singapore- wages costs are too high. Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos are even more corrupt than Thailand and have pitiful infrastructure. So even if the baht increases, thailand will remain the no 1 choice for large scale foreign investment for some time.

Im paid in dollars so a strong baht is a pain! (Though i did transfer 50% of my cash saving from $ to baht in January)

Simply not true. In 2009 FDI by Taiwanese companies alone in Vietnam was over 200 times what it was in LOS (and you can expect that figure to go on rising following the problems earlier this year. The days when Thailand was the only place in the region open for business are gone. Your claim that Vietnam is even more corrupt than LOS is laughable, if local government officials got up to even 10% of the practices that their Thai counterparts engage in they would be for the chop. Literally.

http://www.businessw...84012382639.htm

This fall, Intel will open a $1 billion chip assembly and test plant near Ho Chi Minh City. Taiwanese laptop PC manufacturer Compal also has a new factory in Vietnam. Arthur Chiao, chairman of the Taiwan Electronics & Electrical Appliances Assn., on June 7 said his group is helping Taiwanese companies find new manufacturing sites in Vietnam in the wake of rising labor costs on the mainland.

Political tensions in Thailand next door also are leading companies to Vietnam. Calm has returned to the Thai capital after May's deadly confrontations in Bangkok between antigovernment protesters and the military, but it was one of many political outbursts in Thailand over the years. Pleasanton (Calif.)-based Polycom buys 80 percent of its video-conferencing equipment from Thailand, says Hansjoerg Wagner, head of the company's Asia operations: "With all the political issues that are ongoing there, we are looking at contingency plans," he says. Vietnam, one of Polycom's (PLCM) fastest-growing markets in Asia, "is on our target list" as an alternative.

I could also cherry pick out companies that have invested more in Iraq, Afghanistan or Sudan than vietnam or Thailand. But doesnt really prove anything.

In vietnam the beaurocracy is also far worse that thailand (hard to imagine. but true). Also World Bank just noted that thailand is the 15th most easy country to do business in in the world (also surprised me this one).

Yes, vietnam is an upcoming country and in 5-10 years may even be ahead of thailand as an investment magnet- but its not there yet.

Ok, then lets stop picking cherries and look at the trees. During 2007/9 VN ranked only behind China and India for FDI in Asia. Despite your assertion it already is ahead of Thailand in that respect.

[Ulysses G.]

We are going to have to differ here Ulysses. Whilst on a personal level I find corruption worse in VN, my experience when working with government depts is that it has vastly improved over the last 5 years or so. As I said, agree to differ.

Okie Dokie.

[Chunky1]

Sure anyone can 'play' ... and 'play' is the operative word ... there are a bunch of guys herein for whom every drop in the $US somehow justifies their notions of FIAT money and non-Keynesian economics and how they would like the world to work ... the Madame DeFarges of the economic realm...

I am up 200% in gold (late to the party). I suppose that you are currently short gold? Or are you one of those theoretical spectators not willing to ante up in the game? And who said anything about the end of Keynesian economics?

[Spee]

I am up 200% in gold (late to the party).

RU American? Big bro is watching!

http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell092810.php3