Thai Economy Back In Recession

[webfact]

Thai economy back in recession: official data

BANGKOK, November 22, 2010 (AFP) - Thailand's economy has slipped back into recession, contracting for two consecutive quarters as a stronger baht and a weaker global economy put the brakes on exports, government data showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.2 percent in the three months through September from the previous quarter, when it contracted by a revised 0.6 percent, according to official estimates.

A recession is usually defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

On a year-on-year basis, Thailand's economic growth slowed to 6.7 percent in the third quarter, from 9.2 percent in April-June.

The Thai economy had remained relatively resilient in the face of deadly political violence earlier this year, but it has not been immune to a slowdown in US and European economic growth as well as a slumping dollar.

The Thai baht, along with other Asian currencies, has been surging against the greenback, hitting a 13-year high. A stronger currency undermines the competitiveness of Thai exports.

Faced with an uncertain outlook, Thailand's central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.75 percent in October, pausing after two consecutive rises in the cost of borrowing since July.

Monetary policymakers are next due to meet on December 1.

The kingdom has imposed several measures to curb the strength of the baht, including a tax for foreigners investing in Thai bonds.

Export growth slowed to 15.7 percent in October from a year earlier, after a 21.2 percent expansion in September.

Despite the recent contraction, the government upgraded its GDP growth forecast for this year slightly to 7.9 percent thanks to a strong performance earlier in the year. In 2009 the economy shrank 2.3 percent.

In 2011, growth is expected to slow to within a range of 3.5-4.5 percent.

-- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this story --

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2010-11-22

[gotlost]

With the strength of the baht this is no surprise.

[Lancelot]

Anecdotal but I still see tons of Thais spending money freely

However, hard times in the USA and Europe would imact an export driven economy like Thailand...

[metisdead]

If Thailand is in a recession, why do I see numerous red plated vehicles on the roads everyday? Does not compute. This "recession" has yet to hit the SET, they had a hiccup or 3 last week but recovered.

Time will tell, I guess.

[asiawatcher]

Of course there is ... "The kingdom has imposed several measures to curb the strength of the baht, including a tax for foreigners investing in Thai bonds."

I mean, nothing like letting the Baht float freely without the interference of the Bank of Thailand! But what about looking into the control of the huge cash economy? How many motorbike taxis pays, tax. Ditto for Tuk Tuks, and all industries associated with the 'cash' economy like mechanical repairs and so on. Food and fruit stalls ... it is endless.

Taxation is for those silly enough to pay it or sadly those caught up in Pay As You Earn (PAYE) where it is deducted by employers but even there, there are many examples of employers deducting tax and then not paying it. Taxing foreigners who purchase Govt Thai Bonds is the same as double pricing standards in tourist spots. Be thankful for the funds coming into your economy and let business take its course. Trying to control this is nuts. Let it run and take your real position in the economic world.

[craigt3365]

If Thailand is in a recession, why do I see numerous red plated vehicles on the roads everyday? Does not compute. This "recession" has yet to hit the SET, they had a hiccup or 3 last week but recovered.

Time will tell, I guess.

For sure. New cars, new houses, tour buses everywhere full of Thai tourists, etc. Not the same as back in the US! Back there, everybody is cutting back.

[Robby nz]

The Thai baht, along with other Asian currencies, has been surging against the greenback, hitting a 13-year high.

Surging? hardly think so.

It is the US $ that is in free fall.

In fact both the NZ and OZ $ have risen against the Baht.

The US and Europe are now reaping what they, or their bankers, sowed.

When B B gets up to QE5 or 6 they will have to print the US $ in rolls for there will then be only one use left for it.

[Pib]

The quarter-over-quarter GDP figures (i.e., referenced to 3 months prior ) definitely paint a different picture than year-over-year GDP figures (i.e., referenced to a year ago).

It's very understandable to have seen some big, big year-over-year GDP gains, as 2008 and 2009 GDP for many countries was negatively impacted by the financial crisis...a financial situation that is still negatively impacting many countries like the US, UK, most Eurozone countries, etc. But it seems most emerging market countries like Thailand were generally in much better financial condition since they didn't have huge national debts and didn't have too many stock market/banking system smoke-and-mirror type investments.

Now, although Thailand saw its exports/GDP drop during the peak of the financial crisis this basically set a new and lower reference point for export growth. So as the peak of the crisis passed the exports started bouncing back and since the new reference point was so low it made export growth look great year-over-year and even initially quarter-over-quarter. But hey, when you are at the bottom, you have nowhere to go but up. Now that the year-over-year reference point is based more on a normal year / has been reset to a higher GDP/export amount, the gains are not looking nearly as strong...and the quarter-over-quarter gain don't look nearly as good.

Maybe this GDP/export growth slow down will help slow down the appreciation of the baht which would help exports---and most expats living in Thailand. Then again so many factors such as central bank interest rate policy, capital controls, budget deficits, sovereign bailout, bad government/political instability, big money market speculators, stock market fraud, etc., can make predicting future financial situations a real flip of the coin, drunken dart throw, etc.

[el jefe]

On a year-on-year basis, Thailand's economic growth slowed to 6.7 percent in the third quarter, from 9.2 percent in April-June.

Export growth slowed to 15.7 percent in October from a year earlier, after a 21.2 percent expansion in September.

Despite the recent contraction, the government upgraded its GDP growth forecast for this year slightly to 7.9 percent thanks to a strong performance earlier in the year. In 2009 the economy shrank 2.3 percent.

In 2011, growth is expected to slow to within a range of 3.5-4.5 percent.

Just shows that you can prove anything with statistics.

The "negative" statistics are:

6.7% YoY growth for the month

7.9% for the year

15.7% export growth

3.5-4.5% expected growth for 2011

The USA and every country in Europe would love to report these statistics.

[Chunky1]

All I can say is that the Thai people just gotta hope that their banks have been more responsible with all this cheap credit than their Western counterparts.

[kuffki]

Reading all this statistics is like playing with yoyo

One week, economy is unbreakable, next week unstoppable growth, now its in recession.

Whats next week, back to growth???

They released statements about tourism been up 30% already, and i am yet to see the tourists. Hotels are empty, clubs, beaches, shops are empty.so if the tourists are not in their rooms, not on the beach, not out shopping or drinking then where are they all hiding all 30% more of them.

Hotels already changed to high season prices but in the past 2 weeks have already reduced all the rates back to low season)may be an extra 50 baht)

With the rate Thailand is going, i am afraid, it will be in crisis very soon

Yes there are more red plates on the road, but there are also more cars for sale in the classifieds and repo auctions. Do not forget many buy on credit, do not mean they have the means to pay it off and locals are not best known to plan ahead or even think ahead

[Beetlejuice]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

[housepainter]

China is being reeled in already with focus on the yuan. It is inconceivable that the likes of Thailand will be allowed to flourish when the Western world plus US are belt tightening now in order to avoid recession and re-establish growth. Also, with interest rates pegged back to nothingness there is no utopia out there where growth [ actual ] exists.

What is awaiting others is the same hard kick that responsible economies are tackling now. Tjhose who flout it will be hit hard and sanctioned in the import export market later next myear when growth in real terms returns to Europe and the US. For it is then the at an external pressure will determine former levels of [for example] the baht in order to maintain the desparity that protects Western / US growth.

It is simply a matter of time. Some hard knocks are needed here as despite capable economists, it is impossible for them to tackle the home economy due to fiscal belt tightening simply not being effective here for some of the reasons [ what taxation?] already outlined.

No south sea bubble then but surely a few painful blisters along the way.

[SergeiY]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

[kuffki]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Good to see the hi-so's are around.

[wolf5370]

If Thailand is in a recession, why do I see numerous red plated vehicles on the roads everyday? Does not compute. This "recession" has yet to hit the SET, they had a hiccup or 3 last week but recovered.

Time will tell, I guess.

You think all those red plated cars were bought this month? Ignoring the fact that many cars ride around with red plates for months, recession is unlikely to have hit the man in the street as yet given that its only just been triggered (with the two month shrinkage) - lets see how many red plated cars are up for sale this time next year!

[whybother]

If Thailand is in a recession, why do I see numerous red plated vehicles on the roads everyday? Does not compute. This "recession" has yet to hit the SET, they had a hiccup or 3 last week but recovered.

Time will tell, I guess.

You think all those red plated cars were bought this month? Ignoring the fact that many cars ride around with red plates for months, recession is unlikely to have hit the man in the street as yet given that its only just been triggered (with the two month shrinkage) - lets see how many red plated cars are up for sale this time next year!

Given there has been a two month shrinkage, doesn't that mean that it's hit the man in the street for at least two months?

[SergeiY]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Good to see the hi-so's are around.

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

[Jimi007]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Good to see the hi-so's are around.

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

[SergeiY]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

[Jimi007]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

You must be right again! You now consider Thailand a third world country... Where are you from, that you are so "high class?"

[MaiChai]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

[mommysboy]

It is heading for a recession, how that comes as a surprise to anyone is a mystery?

The only way forward is for Thailand to promote domestic growth, it's a singular and seminal failure. My own take; obviously there's no gain for the powers that be.

Once again Thailand misses a golden opportunity.

It will still take a couple of years before this is reflected in currency rates, and in all honesty the Thai Baht is really beyond control.

[SergeiY]

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

These people just profit from the wealth gap and from the circumstance that Thailand is less developed, poorer than the West. But the world is changing and this gap is shrinking with Thailands further economic development.

In Thailand some construction worker or some assembly line worker can not afford some holidays abroad meanwhile some Western blue-collar Joe can play in Thailand the "big boss". In the future, with the globalisation, the wealth will be distributed more equally what probably means that you in the west will get significant less because you are totally overpaid and other regions of this planet become more prosper and the living standard for this people will become better. So it goes.

Globalisation is a beautiful thing, only the unionist and nationalist-(socialist) and xenophobes in the west will tell you otherwise, they want keep the biggest piece of the cake for themselves and are not willing to share with their colleagues world wide.

Yes its more than selfish and very low to hope that the economy in Thailand will suffer, the grow rate decline so that the blue collar Joe from Sheffield can still play the 'rich man' in a low developed country. That is an ugly attitude back from the days of colonialism.

To the ongoing political crisis these people can only place their stupid comments a la 'why stays the baht so strong'. That is their only concern.

And they start to begrudge Thais because more and more Thais can afford fancy new cars and expensive imports from Europe. Their own western 'rich man' status is on the wane. Face it.

Anyway, i know your retirees and i would not label them all as cheap charlies. You are right, many of them them are decent people. So lets hope for them that their economy and their pound sterling comes back on track, but don't wish that a global crisis will hit Thailand hard and harder.

[needforspeed]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Good to see the hi-so's are around.

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

And why is that good news, they don’t wait for a economic recession.

Thailand need foreign tourism also to so called cheap Charlie, that’s a huge market.

Not only this cheap Chalie’s planning their holidays to another countries because of the strong Thai Baht.

And how about ourselves, i can spend 25% less.

Not much of good thing for Tourism, local businesses, exports and investors.

I agree about the hi-so's around that's good .

[kuffki]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

I am so bored of seeing your yawns as an answer,

Do you consider yourself high class? Just few years ago Russian could not afford to buy an airplane ticket and now here you are passing judgements.

When you go to a club, do you buy 1 bottle of water and then sit with it for 5 hours? because this is what all the Russians do.

1 thing Russians are known for is trying to show off and this is exactly what you are doing, i really doubt you have any money at all and most likely working for some real estate or tour guide for 30k/ month, which is double the salary you would get in Russia so all over a sudden you are wealthy.

Could you not cut it in Russia so you became and "rich" man in Thailand

Next time try to post something little more intelligent and in your league.

Edited November 22, 2010 by kuffki

[Beetlejuice]

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

These people just profit from the wealth gap and from the circumstance that Thailand is less developed, poorer than the West. But the world is changing and this gap is shrinking with Thailands further economic development.

In Thailand some construction worker or some assembly line worker can not afford some holidays abroad meanwhile some Western blue-collar Joe can play in Thailand the "big boss". In the future, with the globalisation, the wealth will be distributed more equally what probably means that you in the west will get significant less because you are totally overpaid and other regions of this planet become more prosper and the living standard for this people will become better. So it goes.

Globalisation is a beautiful thing, only the unionist and nationalist-(socialist) and xenophobes in the west will tell you otherwise, they want keep the biggest piece of the cake for themselves and are not willing to share with their colleagues world wide.

Yes its more than selfish and very low to hope that the economy in Thailand will suffer, the grow rate decline so that the blue collar Joe from Sheffield can still play the 'rich man' in a low developed country. That is an ugly attitude back from the days of colonialism.

To the ongoing political crisis these people can only place their stupid comments a la 'why stays the baht so strong'. That is their only concern.

And they start to begrudge Thais because more and more Thais can afford fancy new cars and expensive imports from Europe. Their own western 'rich man' status is on the wane. Face it.

Anyway, i know your retirees and i would not label them all as cheap charlies. You are right, many of them them are decent people. So lets hope for them that their economy and their pound sterling comes back on track, but don't wish that a global crisis will hit Thailand hard and harder.

Interesting point of view, although you seem to contradict yourself on the last paragraph and have a very narrow one-sided view.

Do you know that there are many Western workers who cannot afford some holidays abroad and that there are many Thais faring pretty well abroad. You should travel around West London and see for yourself the Thai property, restaurant and business owners. I also personally know of Thais living in the UK that are claiming benefits and benefiting from free schooling for their kids, free National Heath medical treatment and low rent housing association homes. And do you know that the amount of Westerners that decide to live in Thailand are an extremely low percentage compared to other nationalities, the Burmese for example and taking an educated guess, I would say that there are more Thais living abroad then there are Westerners in Thailand.

My girlfriend has 2 brothers living abroad. One based in the United States and another in England. One is married to an American farang lady, the other to a Thai lady. Both own their own homes, cars, are employed, earn a decent living wage and not hassled by the Governments. Which is more than most of us are permitted to do in Thailand or at least not hassle free.

May I ask; are you by chance a Socialist?

Edited November 22, 2010 by Beetlejuice

[jucel]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Couldn't of put it better myself! It is startling when your exchange rate goes down 30%. It's the same as having a 30% pay cut. Nobody likes that!

I also agree that inflation is rife in Thailand. I really don't know how the average Thai lives on say 5 to 10k per month. Things only go up a few baht but percentage wise is a lot. In your example of a birdy that's a 30% increase in price.

[craigt3365]

Reading all this statistics is like playing with yoyo

One week, economy is unbreakable, next week unstoppable growth, now its in recession.

Whats next week, back to growth???

They released statements about tourism been up 30% already, and i am yet to see the tourists. Hotels are empty, clubs, beaches, shops are empty.so if the tourists are not in their rooms, not on the beach, not out shopping or drinking then where are they all hiding all 30% more of them.

Hotels already changed to high season prices but in the past 2 weeks have already reduced all the rates back to low season)may be an extra 50 baht)

With the rate Thailand is going, i am afraid, it will be in crisis very soon

Yes there are more red plates on the road, but there are also more cars for sale in the classifieds and repo auctions. Do not forget many buy on credit, do not mean they have the means to pay it off and locals are not best known to plan ahead or even think ahead

I've actually seen lots of increased action regarding tourists. I eat across from the Ambassador every week. Last few months, it has been dead. Now, these restaurants are packed. Mostly Russians...but the difference is amazing. I can't comment on other places, but high season is upon us. More tourists will be here next month than last, that's for sure. I've got a friend trying to make reservations for mid December. Many rooms are already booked out.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Couldn't of put it better myself! It is startling when your exchange rate goes down 30%. It's the same as having a 30% pay cut. Nobody likes that!

I also agree that inflation is rife in Thailand. I really don't know how the average Thai lives on say 5 to 10k per month. Things only go up a few baht but percentage wise is a lot. In your example of a birdy that's a 30% increase in price.

Well put. Most people who are retired are on fixed incomes....or at least relatively fixed. My neighbor, from the UK, is not really hurting...but can't splash out like he use to do. He's just happy he bought and paid for his house 5 years ago!

Regarding inflation, it's bad everywhere in the world. Not just here. But here, we get hit with inflation AND a strong Baht....a double whammy....

[Ricardo]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

Do you not understand, these tourists you denigrate support a lot of jobs for poor people, here in Thailand ? And that it tends to be poor people working in the factories which produce goods for export ? The strong Baht has not been good for the poor. And the government-of-the-time seemed very slow to realise what the results might be, when things first went 'pear-shaped' internationally, a couple of years ago.

Rather a free-spending 2/3-week farang tourist or a 4/8-week backpacker, than rely on someone who comes on a short-package deal, and walks everywhere but never enters a bar or restaurant, who buys their booze at 7/11 and parties on-the-beach or in their room, to spend a satang with the locals.

But perhaps it's simpler just to blame whoever is in government, for the economic consequences of a relatively-strong Baht, and global economic problems. Or to believe that there really is a vast pool of rich hi-so tourists, who will buy an Elite-card, and want to pay ever-more for already-overpriced hotels & dirty beaches ?