Leaks Reveal Pressure On Thai Govt In Viktor Bout Case

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Leaks reveal pressure on Govt in Bout case

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

Whether it's just the tip of the iceberg or the first wave of a tsunami, the WikiLeaks "cables" exposure involving Thailand, the United States and Russia in the Victor Bout extradition saga has wreaked considerable diplomatic havoc.

But which nation has emerged with the biggest bruise?

As a small country caught between two superpowers, Thailand is less affected by the disclosure of what the US Embassy said to Washington during the extradition episode. The exposed "secret" messages the US mission sent to its headquarters only confirmed what anyone could have guessed - how much Bangkok had been squeezed by two giant friends.

To sum it up, while the communications mentioned efforts and tactics employed to block the extradition, they also showed how far the Americans themselves were ready to go to get their man. There were suggestions that President Obama should call Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, that the Bangkok government should express disappointment at a Thai court decision viewed as a setback to the extradition push, and that US authorities should not underestimate the possibility of Thaksin Shinawatra becoming a pawn.

The US Embassy here, as well as its counterparts around the world, must have been on its back foot. American diplomats have been busy with damage control globally, struggling to change perceived "interference" to something less damaging such as routine engagement. Outgoing US Ambassador Eric G John must have hoped for a quiet departure, but thanks to WikiLeaks, he's leaving his Bangkok posting with a bang.

Russia must have been laughing in general at the way the diplomacy of the Leader of the Free World has unravelled, at least temporarily. But in the Bout case, Moscow can't be all smiles, due to the bombshell accusations in the US Embassy-Washington contacts that witnesses were bribed in an effort to overturn the extradition.

In other words, the subtext of the "American diplomatic intervention" in the Bout case is the implicit claims that the other side did something probably worse. Will Russia respond to such claims? A mere "That's not true" reaction from Moscow to the bribery allegations will be a sweet revenge, no matter how the Russians write their statement, because it will lend credence to WikiLeaks documents, something America never formally does. However, since the bribery insinuations were implicit, implicating only those who "support" Victor Bout, Russia will run the risk of admitting guilt without being actually accused.

The same goes for the Thaksin-Bout swap claims. Russia and Thailand will be better served by just keeping silent about this.

For the Americans, they got Victor Bout and that is what matters the most. There are worse loose ends to be tied up elsewhere as a result of the opening of the WikiLeaks Pandora's box. The relationship with Thailand will hardly be affected by news that all kinds of pressure were put on Bangkok to get the alleged "Merchant of Death" extradited. Anyone who has read enough newspapers and watched enough movies can easily guess what must have happened behind the scenes. People of small countries, whether they like it or not, can't be shocked by strong-arm diplomacy.

That final analysis depends on one major condition, though. Whatever comes next in the ongoing "cables exposure" drama, where Thailand is concerned, had better be nice or at least not too bad. There are several "topics" capable of overshadowing the Victor Bout affair, of making it just the real tip of the iceberg.

The Russians can just continue to sit tight and watch, Thailand can keep quiet and let the world see what it had to go through in the Bout saga, and the Americans have more to lose.

So, the real question is not who has the biggest bruise. It's what next? The bad news is, it may come pretty soon.

-- The Nation 2010-12-03