Thailand By-Elections Presage Upcoming National Poll

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ANALYSIS

By-elections presage upcoming national poll

By Praphan Jindalert-udomdee

The Nation

Fierce battle in Nakhon Ratchasima is main event, but Democrats not likely to rout arch rivals Pheu Thai Party

The by-elections on Sunday to fill five vacant MP seats which were left empty after a recent electoral ruling, is a decisive factor effectual for victories in the coming general for both the government and arch-rival and opposition leader Pheu Thai Party.

And the main event fight is at Nakhon Ratchasima's Constituency 6, between Bhum Jai Thai Party, whose keyman Boonjong Wongtrairat was unseated, and former boss-turn-foe of under de-facto leader Newin Chidchob, that is, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who fieled a heavyweight candidate Aphicha Lertphacharakamol, for the contest.

Boonjong has fielded himself in the contest, and with his influential portfolio as an former deputy interior ministry, who commands state authorities and supervisory roles over local administrative bodies, this election is a must-win for him, personally as the right-hand man of Newin, and wholly as a member of the BJT-backing government.

Aphicha joined hand with Puea Pandin Party strongman Pairoj Suwannachawee, a former government ally, and Ruam Chat Pattana Party executive Suwat Liptapanlop, a government ally however not in a coalition, to seek statistical supports from both parties' canvassers.

To determine the importance of victory of this battle in Nakhon Ratchasima, Pongsak Raktapongpaisal, a key Phue Thai member, flew recently to meet Thaksin in Montenegro to discuss strategies and the by-election himself. As a result, two Chat Pattana heavyweights for the provinces, Wirat and Thassaneeya Rattanaset, participated in Aphicha's election campaigns.

In a Constitution Court ruling a few months ago against MPs illegally holding stakes in businesses which are concessionaires of state-enterprise agencies, or having benefited through such advantages, five MPs were unseated, three of whom allied with the government, another as a Pheu Thai Party member and another as Puea Pandin Party MP.

A Pheu Thai poll, however, shows that BJT have upper hands in this by-election, with the hotly-fought battle expected in Choke Chai district, which has not yet decided whom to favaour, between Boonjong and Aphicha, both natives born and raised locally.

Elsewhere across the country, the three other empty MP seats are likely to be won by the BJT-backing coalition, one in Bangkok by Democrat Party candidate Apirak Kosayodhin, one in Ayutthaya by former deputy finance minister Kuekool Danwijitchai, one in Surin by BJT candidate Suparak Khuanha though with him struggling.

The one MP seat in Khon Kaen should be reclaimed by Phue Thai Party, as this is its political stronghold.

Despite winning all five MP seats, if possible, Pheu Thai Party's chance to unseat the government through parliamentary means is still slim, and plus the short remaining term of the government, otherwise de-factor leader Thaksin would have spent a lot more to red-shirt movements to facilitate the government's falldown.

-- The Nation 2010-12-11

[SomTumTiger]

Thaksin's chance to unseat the government by parliamentary means is non-existent, which is why he tried to use violence in April-May.

[rubl]

To determine the importance of victory of this battle in Nakhon Ratchasima, Pongsak Raktapongpaisal, a key Phue Thai member, flew recently to meet Thaksin in Montenegro to discuss strategies and the by-election himself.

My memory fails me. Is there any other country where politicians regularly and openly consult a convicted criminal on the run?