Pheu Thai Faces Test To Keep Its Flock Together

[webfact]

Pheu Thai faces test to keep its flock together

By The Nation

No surprises in by-elections, but opposition has a lot to worry about

To most political analysts, not much can be read into the results of yesterday's by-elections. The turn-outs were low nearly everywhere, a phenomenon blamed on the long holidays, and none of the results could be called an upset. What happens next will have nothing to do with how observers think, but how MPs of the opposition Pheu Thai Party take the seemingly low-key and uninspiring outcomes.

If Pheu Thai MPs do not panic and flee the opposition camp en masse, then the next general election will be what it is supposed to be - a dead-heat between Pheu Thai and the ruling Democrats. The latest Abac poll, conducted between November 30 and December 11 in 17 provinces, confirmed as much, with 46.7 per cent of eligible voters likely to vote for the Democrats if a general election were to be held today, as opposed to 44 per cent who would vote for Pheu Thai.

So, can the Pheu Thai MPs stay calm? Outsiders see yesterday's by-elections as a poor barometer to gauge the national picture, but opposition MPs know a bad sign when they see one. What would worry them is the lack of a voter response to the Constitution Court's rulings that controversially let the Democrat Party off the hook. The opposition would have expected the blatant "injustice" to be reflected in tangible sympathetic support, long holidays or not. And even if the Pheu Thai MPs don't have to worry about the Democrats, they simply can't ignore the rise of the Bhum Jai Thai Party.

It is no surprise that as Pheu Thai leaders led by Chalerm Yoobamrung played down the national impact of yesterday's results, but some party sources warned that without a confidence booster, there could be an exodus. "We didn't field average candidates," said one of the sources. "All our candidates were hopeful ones. Their losses can only mean, we can't match them [rivals] financially, besides their superior state power."

Another source expressed concern that the name of Thaksin Shinawatra was probably not as "magical" as before. "He may remain a beloved figure, but how long can you keep voting with a beloved shadow in mind?" the source said. "Candidates could win votes by just mentioning his name, but that can't last forever."

When these factors are put together - their rivals' financial clout and control of state power, the fading away of Thaksin as a rallying cry, the apparent indifference toward the Constitution Court's infamous Democrat verdicts - Pheu Thai MPs can be disheartened, if not anxious. The sources claimed that without a big political turnaround that can revive the opposition MPs' confidence in their party, dozens of them may defect before the next election.

Even the much-taunted "populist" programmes of the Democrat government have started to worry Pheu Thai, the sources said. Interestingly, the Pheu Thai winner in Khon Kaen Constituency 2 received essentially the same number of votes as in 2007, but the Democrat Party, which gained just about 7,000 votes in that year, garnered more than 36,000 yesterday.

In Ayutthaya, one of the known "red" provinces, a Pheu Thai candidate lost to Chart Thai Pattana's Kuerkul Danchaivichit, albeit with the latter only reclaiming his seat after a recent disqualification by the court.

Bhum Jai Thai's victories in Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin may be more worrying to Pheu Thai than the opposition party's loss in Bangkok Constituency 2 to Democrat heavyweight Apirak Kosayodhin.

"Our wins in Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin means the charges of 'betrayal' no longer work," said Bhum Jai Thai spokesman Supachai Jaisamut. He was referring to what used to be Pheu Thai's trump card against Bhum Jai Thai, the stab in Thaksin's back by Bhum Jai Thai de-facto leader Newin Chidchob.

Lastly, can the low voter turn-outs be a consolation for Pheu Thai? Long holidays affect both camps alike, so they should not be counted as an anti-Pheu Thai factor. What the party can really take heart from is the fact the by-election results show every party won where it was expected to, so the game is still on. Again, as far as Pheu Thai is concerned, it's all about convincing its MPs to keep faith and not panic.

-- The Nation 2010-12-13

[webfact]

Voter turnout well below expectation

By The Nation

Yesterday's by-elections were low-key with the ruling coalition claiming victory in three constituencies - Bangkok, Ayutthaya, Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin - leaving the opposition Pheu Thai Party to retain its representation in Khon Kaen.

Based on unofficial results, the Democrat Party sailed to an easy win in Bangkok's Constituency 2. The Chart Thai Pattana Party managed to keep its seat in Ayutthaya. And Bhum Jai Thai secured its House seat from Nakhon Ratchasima as well as grabbed the seat from Surin that was vacated by a Puea Pandin MP who did not run again.

In Bangkok's two-horse race, Democrat candidate Apirak Kosayodhin defeated Pheu Thai's Pongpisut Jintasophon by a wide margin.

The voter turnout was less than expected, lower than 40 per cent, Election Commission official Supoj Paiboon said.

That might be due to various reasons, including disenchantment with politics and the prime minister's hint of an early poll in March or April, he said.

Unlike past balloting, the EC did not detect any attempts at vote-buying in the Bangkok race, but it received three complaints about smear campaigns.

As the polling stations closed, Apirak said he felt the day was less exciting than during past electoral races.

"It so happens that the by-election coincided with a long weekend," he said.

In Khon Kaen, farmers in

rural areas lined up early in the morning to cast their ballots before heading to their fields to harvest rice.

Voting in Ayutthaya, Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin was also subdued due to the rice-harvesting season.

Pheu Thai's Preachapol Pongpanit looks set to get re-elected in Khon Kaen. Chart Thai Pattana's Kuerkul Danchaivichit is slated to reclaim his House seat from Ayutthaya. Two Bhum Jai Thai candidates, Supharak Kuanha and Boonjong Wongtrairat, are expected to win House seats from Surin and Nakhon Ratchasima respectively.

Kuerkul and Boonjong resigned their ministerial portfolios to contest the by-election.

-- The Nation 2010-12-13

[hanuman1]

Only a general election will properly motivate voters to go out and vote.

The government and its sponsors/supporters have one year (or less) left to use all means at their disposal and split the PTP constituency sufficiently to guarantee an easy ride. It may already have done enough, but they won't leave anything to chance if possible.

I wonder what would happen in the unlikely event of the PTP surviving the remaining period in strong enough a position to win the election?

Edited December 13, 2010 by hanuman1

[bangkokcitylimits]

The guys on the photo look more like gangsters then serious politicians. That's why they better let running the country to the 'developed' side of the nation.

[whybother]

Only a general election will properly motivate voters to go out and vote.

The government and its sponsors/supporters have one year (or less) left to use all means at their disposal and split the PTP constituency sufficiently to guarantee an easy ride. It may already have done enough, but they won't leave anything to chance if possible.

I wonder what would happen in the unlikely event of the PTP surviving the remaining period in strong enough a position to win the election?

I don't think they are in a strong enough position NOW to win an election, so even if they survive the remaining period in tact, I don't think it will make much difference.

The by-elections don't give much of an indication with such a low turn out, but as with the previous by-elections, there has been no back-lash against the Democrats, so the PTP are unlikely to gain anything in the next election, leaving them in opposition.

But there is still at least 4 months for either side to mess up (more).

[Ricardo]

Only a general election will properly motivate voters to go out and vote.

The government and its sponsors/supporters have one year (or less) left to use all means at their disposal and split the PTP constituency sufficiently to guarantee an easy ride. It may already have done enough, but they won't leave anything to chance if possible.

I wonder what would happen in the unlikely event of the PTP surviving the remaining period in strong enough a position to win the election?

I don't think they are in a strong enough position NOW to win an election, so even if they survive the remaining period in tact, I don't think it will make much difference.

The by-elections don't give much of an indication with such a low turn out, but as with the previous by-elections, there has been no back-lash against the Democrats, so the PTP are unlikely to gain anything in the next election, leaving them in opposition.

But there is still at least 4 months for either side to mess up (more).

To win an election outright, the PTP (also equally the Dems for that matter) would need to make a significant gain in popularity, from current levels, which IMO seems unlikely.

No, the next election will leave the two major parties (as now) jostling to attract coalition partners, as the way to power. This could go either way, but recent 'peaceful protests' will surely have some effect, on willingness to support a PTP-led coalition ?

As an optimist I would hope for a continuing Democrat-led government, with PM-Abhisit given more bargaining-power with his sometimes-less-than-savoury partners, to continue to develop/implement policies which benefit the poorer Thais, as well as the already-rich. And for the red-movement to resolve its funding/leadership/policy issues, and start providing a useful Opposition, to help keep the government more-honest.

A realist would probably conclude, more of the same old, with the traditional rural political-machines continuing to jostle for power & favours, to the detriment of any emerging democratic tendencies.

[animatic]

...how long can you keep voting with a beloved shadow in mind?

Yes this is more and more in evidence,

but he likely will still be a selling point in the general election,

which is why he is moving mountains for the pretense of continued relevance,

see : Nopaddum's regular pontifications.

The Dems cases being thrown out right before the election did not significantly

change anything, no back lash no massive disgust as PTP tried to portray.

If anything the dirty tricks aspect of the PTP machine aimed at the Dems and courts,

no doubt swayed a few voters to further distance themselves from PTP aka TRT Gangsta Lite.

All in all not a good day fort PTP, Chalerms 'best parting shot' is to blame it on not having enough money... Gee wiz, Thaksin not forthcoming in the little fights... poor baby. Could it be the emperor's crew has no clothes, The public has seen through them, and even Newin seems a better deal than Thaksin Inc and minions.

I think they come by the voter apathy legitimately.

Edited December 13, 2010 by animatic

[metisdead]

A post containing derogatory comments directed towards all Thais has been removed from view.

[webfact]

Coalition parties win four of five by-election constituencies

BANGKOK, Dec 13 -- Thailand's ruling Democrat Party and its coalition partners -- Bhumjaithai, Chart Thai Pattana -- won seats in four of the five constituencies in by-election on Sunday while opposition Puea Thai party retain their post in the northeastern province of Khon Kaen.

Sunday’s by-elections were held in Bangkok’s Constituency 2, in three northeastern provinces -- Khon Kaen’s Constituency 2, Nakhon Ratchasima’s Constituency 6 and Surin’s Constituency 3 -- and in the central province of Ayutthaya’s Constituency 1.

The five seats were vacated when the Election Commission (EC) ruled that the former MPs were disqualified for holding shares in firms with state concessions as they had violated the Constitution.

The unofficial results after the ballot counting was complete showed that former Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayodhin of the Democrat Party won the election contest in Bangkok's

Constituency 2 with 71,072 votes, compared with 30,506 for Puea Thai party candidate Pongpisut Jintasophon.

Former deputy interior minister Boonjong Vongtrirat, who contested for Bhumjaithai in Nakhon Ratchasima's Constituency 6, won with 82,749 votes, while Puea Thai candidate Apicha Lertpatcharakamol received 63,680 votes.

Former deputy transport minister Kuakul Danchaiwijit of Chart Thai Pattana won his contest with just 84,518 votes, easing past Puea Thai candidate Ong-art Wachiraphong who received 78,497 votes in Ayutthaya's Constituency 1.

Supaluck Khuanha of Bhumjaithai won handily in Surin's Constituency 3 with 103, 968 votes, compared with 75,048 for Puea Thai's Pathida Tantiratananon.

Preechaphol Pongpanich of the Puea Thai party was the only opposition candidate to win, claiming 143,700 votes in Khon Kaen's Constituency 2, while Democrat candidate Athipprat Tadpichayangkul got 36,338 votes.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Sunday said he was satisfied with the by-election in five constituencies of five provinces but said the election result cannot be an index of the general election as Thailand’s political circumstances are quite in fluid. (MCOT online news)

-- TNA 2010-12-13

[hammered]

PTP put a lot of effort into Khorat and inteneded to bring BJT down. They lined up every power broker including neutrals and government aligned ones in the province (Peau Pandin, Suwat, Pairoje) to teach BJT a lesson and demonstrate that BJT couldnt get the most from their canvassers leaving BJT struggling to keep its own people happy let alone enticing defectors. PTP also picked a top notch candidate. It all failed. Nopw it is PTP and not BJT that is facing action to keep its candidates, and the Khorat power brokers who were almost totally united have some soul searching to do. Poltical reality. That is what these elections were about.

Peau Pandin renegades also have big questions to answer. Where are they going to find a home. Any plan to merge into PTP looks to not offer the benefits they thought it may even where they are strong, and going back cap in hand to BJT and allied smaller factions may prove difficult.

This is not a precursor of the next election as likely the constitutional changes will come along and change the system to one where there are more party list candidates and a one candidate constituency system that will liklely suit government parties more than now, and that is before we even think about how the boundaries are drawn. The government parties right now are showing they can compete with PTP in a constituency system that PTP prefers.

The chance of a snap poll just went up. If a deluge of defections starts expect one very soon. The Dems are ready now the disolution cases are gone leaving no chance of a disolution during a campaign. BJT now seem to have themselves a lot more ready too. PTP is having to hold its MPs and it lacks a leader and cant chose one without causing defections.

Interesting politics.

[Bagwan]

Voter turnout well below expectation

By The Nation

Yesterday's by-elections were low-key with the ruling coalition claiming victory in three constituencies - Bangkok, Ayutthaya, Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin - leaving the opposition Pheu Thai Party to retain its representation in Khon Kaen.

-- The Nation 2010-12-13

The results might have been different if the Nation did the vote counting. 

Bangkok    1   Ayutthaya   2   Nakhon Ratcghasima   3    Surin    Erm, what comes after 3 Somjai?

The Thai Government to make improvements to education? 

[rubl]

"We didn't field average candidates," said one of the sources. "All our candidates were hopeful ones. Their losses can only mean, we can't match them [rivals] financially, besides their superior state power."

From the OP. Does this tell a lot about Thai politics in general and PTP specifically?

The 'superior state power' does suggest that in any by-election the ruling parties would have an unfair advantage. Even when ministers step down, the PM moves his weekly talk till after, etc., etc. I don't remember anyone complaining about this before. Did someone inform the EC?

Maybe I should quote 'if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen'

[Insight]

Probably about time Thaksin stopped wasting his hard-stolen cash on Internet-based lobbying groups and instead focused more on stuffing the pockets of ethically-averse politicians with cash.

IMHO, of course.

[Buchholz]

The guys on the photo look more like gangsters then serious politicians.

It does remind one of those ubiquitous crime re-enactment scenes. The only thing missing is the pointing.

Done.

[asiawatcher]

Judging by the photo, PTP does not have to worry - its Thailand should any of these people actually get a vote to run Thailand!

[hanuman1]

The guys on the photo look more like gangsters then serious politicians.

It does remind one of those ubiquitous crime re-enactment scenes. The only thing missing is the pointing.

Done.

And to make matters even worse, this man has a head that is definitely erring on the square side. What more evidence could one want as to his dastardly intentions?

[apollo13]

I thought sheep came in flocks, shouldn't the headline use the word 'herd' instead?

[animatic]

PTP put a lot of effort into Khorat and inteneded to bring BJT down. They lined up every power broker including neutrals and government aligned ones in the province (Peau Pandin, Suwat, Pairoje) to teach BJT a lesson and demonstrate that BJT couldnt get the most from their canvassers leaving BJT struggling to keep its own people happy let alone enticing defectors. PTP also picked a top notch candidate. It all failed. Nopw it is PTP and not BJT that is facing action to keep its candidates, and the Khorat power brokers who were almost totally united have some soul searching to do. Poltical reality. That is what these elections were about.

Peau Pandin renegades also have big questions to answer. Where are they going to find a home. Any plan to merge into PTP looks to not offer the benefits they thought it may even where they are strong, and going back cap in hand to BJT and allied smaller factions may prove difficult.

This is not a precursor of the next election as likely the constitutional changes will come along and change the system to one where there are more party list candidates and a one candidate constituency system that will liklely suit government parties more than now, and that is before we even think about how the boundaries are drawn. The government parties right now are showing they can compete with PTP in a constituency system that PTP prefers.

The chance of a snap poll just went up. If a deluge of defections starts expect one very soon. The Dems are ready now the disolution cases are gone leaving no chance of a disolution during a campaign. BJT now seem to have themselves a lot more ready too. PTP is having to hold its MPs and it lacks a leader and cant chose one without causing defections.

Interesting politics.

Good observations.

It would appear the Reds grossly overplayed their hand, and PTP stuck with them afterwards too strongly, and the general electorate was not best pleased to see Central world and many Bangkok icons in flames. Nor the bombings clearly connected to PTP personages by 1-2 steps removed, but too close for comfort or deflection of blame. The mud seems to be stickier than they realized for all their bravado and hubris. And the ghost of the liege lord didn't scare or thrill like he did in the past. So it's up to the money in the coming election and not the old special relationship. It's a brave new world, but the formerly wonderfully pneumatic are now deflating.

Edited December 13, 2010 by animatic

[animatic]

The guys on the photo look more like gangsters then serious politicians.

It does remind one of those ubiquitous crime re-enactment scenes. The only thing missing is the pointing.

Done.

Can we stick a fork in him, or does he have a pop out temperature gauge?

2 weeks late for Thanksgiving, but still no less a large, over fed bird,

that might eat till it chokes on it's own dinner, drown in its water trough,

or break it's neck back running into the fence, it just flew over.

gobble gobble

Edited December 13, 2010 by animatic

[hanuman1]

Ooooh! That man makes my blood boil!!!

[rubl]

BREAKINGNEWS

EC asks House Secretariat to confirm status of Pheu Thai MP

The Election Commission has asked House of Representatives Secretary-General Pithoon Poomhirun to check and confirm the parliamentary status of Pheu Thai MP Padomechai Sasomsup.

The EC wondered whether Padomechai should be disqualified after he was ruled a bankrupt man by the Civil Court.

Pithoon said Monday that he had checked with the Parliament Legal Office, which should verify the MP status of Padomechai no later than Tuesday.

The Nation

One more worry for PTP ?

[Buchholz]

BREAKINGNEWS

EC asks House Secretariat to confirm status of Pheu Thai MP

The Election Commission has asked House of Representatives Secretary-General Pithoon Poomhirun to check and confirm the parliamentary status of Pheu Thai MP Padomechai Sasomsup.

The EC wondered whether Padomechai should be disqualified after he was ruled a bankrupt man by the Civil Court.

Pithoon said Monday that he had checked with the Parliament Legal Office, which should verify the MP status of Padomechai no later than Tuesday.

The Nation

One more worry for PTP ?

I thought quite a few of them were morally bankrupt, why are they picking on Padomechai?

[jdinasia]

As pointed out earlier, not much has changed in Thai politics --- the big contests were the BJT controlled seats that they retained. Showing that the local political machines are more powerful than being branded a traitor to Thaksin's goals.

[whybother]

As pointed out earlier, not much has changed in Thai politics --- the big contests were the BJT controlled seats that they retained. Showing that the local political machines are more powerful than being branded a traitor to Thaksin's goals.

Yes. That one shows that the PTP's call to vote out the "traitor" fell on deaf ears. It doesn't bode well for the PTP with the other defectors. One more reason that they are going to have trouble in the next election.

[animatic]

As pointed out earlier, not much has changed in Thai politics --- the big contests were the BJT controlled seats that they retained. Showing that the local political machines are more powerful than being branded a traitor to Thaksin's goals.

Yes. That one shows that the PTP's call to vote out the "traitor" fell on deaf ears. It doesn't bode well for the PTP with the other defectors. One more reason that they are going to have trouble in the next election.

Yes, there call for war against the BJT, was tellingly ineffective.

Som nom na,

[jdinasia]

As pointed out earlier, not much has changed in Thai politics --- the big contests were the BJT controlled seats that they retained. Showing that the local political machines are more powerful than being branded a traitor to Thaksin's goals.

Yes. That one shows that the PTP's call to vote out the "traitor" fell on deaf ears. It doesn't bode well for the PTP with the other defectors. One more reason that they are going to have trouble in the next election.

Yes, there call for war against the BJT, was tellingly ineffective.

Som nom na,

The significance of this should not be lost on those Reds on the board that kept saying over and over "Those defectors from PPP should have caused a new election because the people that voted for them were voting for PPP" --- *cough* .. sorry kids they were voting for Newin all along

[Buchholz]

Very revealing that some Puea Thai Party MPs have put the reason for their losses on disunity within the Party and insufficient funding coming from Thaksin. The other paper has a pretty damning article on these aspects.

[Buchholz]

hahaha... great timing. PTP MP's bemoan the lack of funding and Mr. Financier calls in:

Thaksin's phone-in to rally Pheu Thai MPs

Fugitive former-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Tuesday made a telephone call to rally Phue Thai MPs following the by-election outcome, party officials said.

Thaksin talked to the MPs at the end of their party meeting.

Despite the by-election outcome, Thaksin said he was still confident Pheu Thai would win more than half of the House seats at the next general election.

He said he anticipated a snap election to take place early next year and that he challenged the coalition government not to be a sore loser at the next poll.

-- The Nation 2010-12-14

[rubl]

He said he anticipated a snap election to take place early next year and that he challenged the coalition government not to be a sore loser at the next poll.

You may call me a nit-picker, but it's probably just the Dutch uncle in me.

The government is seldomly a sore loser in an election. The government either calls a new general election, or steps down prematurally and enforces a new general election because of that. The parties making up the government may be sore losers, but not the government. K. Thaksin should know, he called for new general elections after only eleven months in his new term. He stepped down to continue as caretaker PM till the new elections, won and called himself PM again, had those elections invalidated by court, stepped down, stepped up again, continued in a very dubious legal standing and in September showed himself a very graceful looser

[Buchholz]

the article has been expanded:

Thaksin rallies Pheu Thai MPs via phone in

Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday called during the Pheu Thai party meeting to boost the moral of the MPs after Sunday's disappointing by-election outcome, party officials said.

Thaksin told the MPs that he was confident Pheu Thai would win more than half the House seats at the next general election. He said he anticipated a snap election to take place early next year and challenged the coalition government to not be a sore loser.

He also urged his supporters to focus on mapping out a campaign strategy instead of blaming each other for the disappointing outcome.

Thaksin said he was proud of every vote that was cast for Pheu Thai, because the opposition party did not rely on vote buying.

He attributed the ruling coalition's victory to money politics.

Thaksin also congratulated Pheu Thai for its victory in Khon Kaen, saying he expected the by-election to serve as a lesson in the next poll. He also told the MPs to keep in touch with their constituents.

-- The Nation 2010-12-15