Political Landmines Before Thai Govt

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BURNING ISSUE

Political landmines before govt

By Jintana Panyaarvudh

Thai politics has never stabilized over the past few years. It would be the same in the coming year although the ruling Democrat Party survived from two party dissolution cases. The government expected to sail through the smooth sea until, as Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva hinted, the early election but it may be not due to the following political mines.

No confidence motion: Next parliament session will be reconvened in January and the opposition planned to file a censure motion against the government. Once the motion is filed the government will not be able to dissolve the House until the House casted their vote according to the Constitution. The censure debate will affect the government if the information of the opposition party is much solid, grounded and reliable that could lead to some coalition members vote against the ministers. That would also force Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to make a cabinet reshuffle and more conflicts will occur among the coalition partners especially those who were ousted from the cabinet.

Constitution amendment: The charter amendment bill is being considered by the vetting committee after passing the first reading. The committee is expected to complete the rewriting and send to the Parliament for the final reading in the next session in January.

All eyes will be on the ruling Democrat to see how the ruling party will vote. The Democrats always showed their against to the amendment especially the election system changing from multiMP seats to onesingle seat in one constituency while all of their coalition partners pushed for the change. If the Democrat betrayed their partners the ruling party needed to give something else for them in exchange or they may pull out from the government.

Big political rallies: Both yellow shirts and red shirts protesters planned their big rallies next year. The red shirts announced that they will hold rally on the 10th and the 19th of every month at Constitution monument and Rajprasong respectively until their demands for justice are met and red shirt leaders are freed. They also demanded the government to investigate the dead from the crackdown during April and May. The yellow shirts set their next, big and prolonged rally on January 25 over Preah Vihear conflict.

Both camps' rallies would raise concerns more or less to the government in term of the security although they expected few protesters will join the rallies.

Criminal cases involved with both red and yellow shirts: Both groups have been charged with terrorism. Yellow shirts were involved with Suvarnabhumi Airport and Government House seizure while the red shirts were involved with the riot in April and May. If the government mishandles the cases they could not escape from the constant criticism of being double standard and it could damage credibility of the government.

Conflicts inside the government: Throughout this government's ruling there were always conflicts among the coalition partners and the ruling Democrat Party especially between the Democrat and Bhum Jai Thai Party. However, the upcoming and expecting conflicts may not affect the stability of the government much as we can see in the past that they finally can manage or share the benefits among them whenever there was any conflict. Because they share the same goal which is trying to be in power as long as they can.

If any of the factors causes difficulties to the government to stay on, the ruling Democrat can exercise their powerful tool to dissolve the House and call a next general election. However, it seemed that Abhisit wanted to stay as long as he can until the end of the term although he recently hinted that he may call a snap poll early next year before March or April.

-- The Nation 2010-12-20

[asiawatcher]

It's a rocky road but the Govt has already distanced itself from both waring coloured factions so that is a step in the right direction. If the no confidence motion is brought into play this will simply delay the election which is what PTP are all about. If the Govt dissolves the house then the PTP will have their chance so why go through the no confidence motion? Seems these guys are all just nut cases looking to grab more sensationalistic headlines over nothing.

[animatic]

This will delay the election call certainly, but not likely to affect the actual date would be called.

Still it is not logical, unless you are obsessed with bringing the Dems down and getting them banned for 5 years A.S.A.P. which may be more important, since removing Abhisit and Korn would level the playing field, and not much elese will, But still the PTP has a truly pathetic record in their censure motions. They tried the same charges in censure and went no where, and then the Reds tried to force the EC into filing through violent intimidation, and even that was ineffective.

And that word sums up PTP, INEFFECTIVE. That is their main problem, they are either too dis-organised, too inept or too illogical of A makes B happen, causing C to not happen, putting D so far ahead it's irrelivant, to pull off yet a 3rd, or is it 4th, attempt to censure Abhisit's government. A pretty sad crew to say the least.