Little Change In Reality If Thai Govt Decides To Call It A Day For CRES

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Little change in reality if govt decides to call it a day for CRES

By THE NATION

Should today turn out to be the final one for the Centre for Resolution of the Emergency Situation, it will not change much, or even mean much, as far as Thailand's political problems are concerned.

The state of emergency, which has justified the CRES's existence since April 7, is a strange state of affairs in itself, with (disillusioned) advocates and opponents alike not caring whether it stays or goes.

The red shirts will say "suppression" will continue, only in the name of the Internal Security Act this time. Their opponents will say the state of emergency has been useless anyway, as red shirts can hold rallies and carry out sometimes-provocative activities at will.

If the Cabinet agrees today to cancel the state of emergency, which has remained in effect in Bangkok, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan and Nonthaburi, the ISA will come into play. When it comes to containing political dissent, both the ISA and the emergency decree in essence give authorities similar powers in pinpointing suspects and making arrests. The main difference between the two laws is the length of detention.

At times like this - when there is no more outright violence but fears, whether justified or not, linger - the ISA and state of emergency are almost the same thing. Lifting the latter will only shift power from the CRES to a more mainstream mechanism when it comes to dealing with dissent or anything deemed detrimental to national security.

Normally, the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) runs the show under the ISA. This time, if the state of emergency is to be lifted, the government is expected to set up a monitoring committee to keep track of suspicious political developments. Isoc is traditionally chaired by the prime minister, who can assign the Army chief to serve as key supervisor on his behalf.

The red shirts will be more concerned about the future of more than 100 of their members who are still in jail as a result of crackdowns under the state of emergency. The inmates have been charged, so with or without the measure, their status is unlikely to change.

To add insult to red shirts' injury, Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha yesterday declared that the state of emergency "can be reinstalled any time". This must have been intended as a warning, but the red shirts will have the right to ask why, if the state of emergency can be imposed at will, the government did not revoke it earlier.

Prayuth's answer to that was stinging, and critics will say his comments won't do much good when it comes to reconciliation. The Army chief said the state of emergency was made necessary by the red shirts themselves, who he said had ignored normal laws to the point where special ones had to be enforced.

"If you want to rally, please do so, but make sure you don't hold up traffic or use the protest to attack key institutions," he said. "If you defy the law, you can't just say you are innocent once you've been arrested."

His volatile remarks perhaps best represent the actual situation. Lifting the state of emergency is hardly a goodwill gesture, although it might help Thailand's international image a little. Domestically, distrust will persist until there are more concessions from either side, which means leniency for the red prisoners on the government's part.

-- The Nation 2010-12-21

[whybother]

Domestically, distrust will persist until there are more concessions from either side, which means leniency for the red prisoners on the government's part.

And will we ever get ANYTHING on the Red Shirts part?

[jayboy]

And will we ever get ANYTHING on the Red Shirts part?

Depends who you mean by "we".

[whybother]

And will we ever get ANYTHING on the Red Shirts part?

Depends who you mean by "we".

Anyone? Have they done anything to move towards reconciliation?

[webfact]

AFP: Thailand To Lift Emergency Rule In Bangkok

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[rubl]

Domestically, distrust will persist until there are more concessions from either side, which means leniency for the red prisoners on the government's part.

Concessions from either side. The government's part needed is indicated, the concessions needed from the other side not.

Anyone care to come with meaningful suggestions for red-shirt concessions needed ?