Thai Constitution Proposals Guided By Self-Interest

webfact · January 20, 2011

ANALYSIS

Constitution proposals guided by self-interest

By Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation

The amendment to the current election system is a game of numbers in which voters don't count

To understand the fuss about the current charter amendment proposals, first you need fundamental knowledge of elementary-school mathematics. Equally important is that one has to get down from one's high horse and stop asking how it will benefit the people.

It is all about advantages and disadvantages in an election. Every party has its own agenda, and this will be broadcast to every household in the Kingdom when Parliament begins deliberation next Tuesday of models purported to be cures to the existing political malaise.

The amendment proposals seek to change the current election system, in which voters directly elect 400 MPs in constituencies nationwide and cast "party" votes that will be calculated to divide a total of 80 MP seats among all parties. This is a system that gives importance to candidates' attachment to their constituents, although parties' image or influence often plays a big role in the voters' decision.

The proposed 375-125 formula reduces the number of directly elected MPs (from 400 to 375) and purportedly increases the "importance of parties". This system has 45 more "party-list" MPs than the current model. In other words, 25 constituency MPs in the current system (who assume that they can get re-elected and come back if the system is unchanged) will find themselves at the mercy of how many nationwide votes their respective parties get and how high they are ranked in the "lists" of their parties.

That aside, the 375-125 formula would take away more direct elections from the North and Northeast than from any other region (please see the graphic). The Democrats, who always lose constituency elections in the North and Northeast, sometimes narrowly, must love that. Even though the Pheu Thai Party will still certainly reign supreme in party-list balloting in the North and Northeast, the Democrats stand to share more of the spoils than the current 400-80 system.

The Democrats have been buoyed by results of recent popularity polls, which made them believe they would fare quite well in the party-list battle. In addition to that, some voters have this behaviour of picking a constituency candidate from one small party and at the same time choosing a big party in the party-list vote. This behaviour, it is believed, benefits the Democrats more than Pheu Thai.

Interestingly, this 375-125 formula came out of nowhere and seemed to turn the tide in the Democrats' favour after the ruling party, very reluctantly, yielded to its small coalition partners' relentless demand for electoral-system change so they could get some leverage in the next poll. The small coalition allies wanted a one-MP constituency system (currently, each constituency has up to three MPs depending on its size), which could make canvassing (or vote-buying, as critics would call it) easier.

It remains to be seen whether fears of the 375-125 formula are big enough eventually to force the smaller coalition allies to come to terms with the current 400-80 system, which the Democrats don't mind that much.

As of now, the smaller allies seem unwilling to retreat without a try. They have come up with a compromising formula of 400-100 (keeping the number of directly elected MPs the same to give themselves a chance and increasing the number of party-list seats by 20 to make the Democrats happy).

The ruling party responded to that with a cold shoulder. This gave birth to another formula. The 400-125 model conjured up by the Bhum Jai Thai Party is unlikely to get anybody else's nod, but it just confirmed how far this political horse-trading can go.

It seems the Democrats are having an upper hand, but that is largely because Pheu Thai has "boycotted" the amendment process, so it has been like a see-saw battle between the ruling party and its own allies. Once Pheu Thai joins the fray, which it most certainly will next week, the game will change, and analysts believe the opposition camp will back the 400-100 formula, not least because this model was the feature of the 1997 Constitution that was aborted by the 2006 coup.

Some observers, however, don't rule out Pheu Thai quietly eyeing the 375-125 formula with affection. If the party is confident that its popular support remains massive, that is.

So, who will win, who will join whom and who can trust whom? On that, mathematics can't help much.

-- The Nation 2011-01-21

Pib · January 21, 2011

The "party" vote portion sounds like the voter is basically signing over part of his/her vote under a proxy arrangement for a particular party. Then that party picks the individual MP from within their own party.

I guess if the populace really don't have a clue (or don't want to have a clue) about "individuals" running for election other than maybe a picture posted along the soi and prefer to just vote for a particular party, then it's a good way considering the populace.

SICHONSTEVE · January 22, 2011