Isolated Abhisit May Still Survive Dual Attacks

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EDITORIAL

Isolated Abhisit may still survive dual attacks

By The Nation

Thailand is enjoying a break from political upheaval, but with reds and yellows both calling for the PM's head, how long will this fragile peace last?

The Democrat Party is looking strangely isolated. For the first time in its term, the largest party in the coalition government is facing back-to-back protests by the red and yellow shirts. To add to that, the ongoing tussle over charter amendment proposals with the coalition allies means that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's party cannot boast a government in "harmony" going into an imminent censure debate with the opposition Pheu Thai Party.

In the old days, all these factors taken together would have constituted a big "crisis", but this is new politics and this is a prime minister who has survived political bloodbaths and potentially crippling court cases in the same year. However, last Sunday's rally by the red shirts, today's protest by the yellow shirts, the charter amendment impasse and the looming no-confidence showdown with the opposition are not a walk in the park. For one thing, while enemies and detractors of the government may share some common goals, they are still not advocating the same causes. Whether this will benefit Abhisit or make things worse for him remains to be seen.

Both the yellow and red shirts now want the prime minister to go. The red shirts are citing the casualties of last year's political bloodshed as the key reason. The yellow shirts have been upset by the government's Cambodia-related policies, which ironically have more to do with some messy issues left by pro-red governments.

Optimists see the violent street politics of last year evolving into something more manageable democratically. The red shirts are unlikely to go back to the extremism that could give the prime minister an excuse to reverse his "early election" promise.

The yellow shirts - who have denounced the red-shirts' tactics for causing disruption to peace and order - are unlikely to swallow their words, at least not too soon.

The upcoming parliamentary censure debate is expected to be aimed at the entire Cabinet. That will be a tactical approach because ministers and deputy ministers who are MPs will not be allowed to "vote for themselves". With the number of coalition members and opposition MPs eligible to vote in the censure not so different, political undercurrents can transform into big waves at the time of voting.

But before the censure can happen, the prime minister and the Democrat Party must first sort out problems with their coalition allies regarding the proposed charter amendment. Serious conflicts seemingly remain unsolved, but observers believe that when push comes to shove, the coalition partners will prefer to toe the Democrats' line than gang up with Pheu Thai and have their way.

Therefore, isolated as he seems, Abhisit is not yet in a back-to-the-wall situation. Much will depend on how strong the yellow shirts' momentum will carry forward. The movement has been weakened by internal strife and the disillusionment of peripheral sympathisers.

As for the red shirts, their street campaigns have looked more like election war drumming than an "Abhisit-out-at-all-costs" agenda.

Is Thai politics in the process of healing itself? That may be wishful thinking too soon. If this is just a break before a new round of turmoil, we can only hope there won't be repetition of the violence of last year. The yellow shirts, led by a former Thaksin Shinawatra ally who turned against him, are representing the uncertainty and unpredictability of politics. Can they combine with the pro-Thaksin red shirts to overthrow Abhisit? All we know is that Sondhi Limthongkul was once Thaksin's most vocal and influential cheerleader, and Kasit Piromya was not so long ago the yellow shirts' darling.

As Thailand enjoys a peaceful break politically, it's up to all the key players to keep things this way. In fact, Abhisit, the Thai military, and the red-shirt and yellow-shirt leaders all owe the neutral Thai public a peaceful return to real democracy. They have been playing reasonably fair so far, and long may that continue.

-- The Nation 2011-01-25

[Robby nz]

If Abhisit and the dems were to be voted out the reds would obviously see Thaksin as his replacement but who would the yellows see in that position?

If PTP should win an election and manage by some slight of hand to get Thaksin back the yellows reaction would not be good as they have already got him kicked out once.

So who would be a reasonable, let alone good, replacement for Abhisit if the dems were voted out?

[jillwilliams999]

Chalerm be the next PM by Songkhran?

[geriatrickid]

If Abhisit slides from power, the next person in is going to swing a club ruthlessly. Abhisit just like the other PMs that came after the military relinquished the PM position is sensitive to public opinion and hesitant to let loose with an all out crackdown. Had Samak Sundaravej crushed the occupation of Government House and responded with force to the seizure and blockade of the 3 regional airports in 2008, Operation Hiroshima would not have occurred. (Operation Hiroshima was the PAD code name for the BKK airport seizure.) Had Somchai Wongsawat not wavered when the PAD confrontation reached its zenith, he might have been able to contain the insurrection and inspired confidence in his leadership. PM Abhisit stands accused of brutality during last Aprils unrest in Bangkok. On the contrary, I believe his government showed initial restraint and patience. Had PM Abhisit moved more decisively, perhaps the shopping plazas would not have been burnt down. No matter what one's political views are, I think all of these PMs showed some semblance of humanity and sensitivity to the potential loss of life and possibility of mass bloodshed. The next PM is going to learn from their mistakes and react more violently and brutally to riots and acts of mass dissent. It won't matter if it's a Thaksin loyalist or a follower of PAD. Blood will be shed and lives will be lost.

[SantiSuk]

Resisting ridiculous hawkish demands from patriots who want to go to war over the merest slight to the country shows strength in a leader, not weakness. The Yellow Shirts will make themselves a laughing stock on the world stage if their rally turns nasty. On the other hand the Cambodians (delete that - I mean Hun Sen, their autocratic leader) seem to be itching to embarrass him and if his 'jaw jaw' not 'war war' policy does not bear fruit soon he's going to face much more widespread public anger than a few thousand activists.

Although it is a ridiculous silly side issue, the spat over the stone tablet erected by Cambodian soldiers that claims victory over Thailand in the disputed territory around the Phra Wihan temple (from which both sides reportedly voluntarily withdrew, but then Cambodian soldiers reportedly re-entered to erect this provocative memorial/boast) is a bit of a lightning rod for what happens next. If Cambodia does not remove it in the next few days Abhisit might be forced back into border fighting.

While Abhisit is supported by background 'forces of influence' he is unlikely to be losing too much sleep but he must be wondering who is still pulling Hun Sen's strings.

[jillwilliams999]

Who is still pulling Hun Sen's strings? The answer is simple. Who has most to gain? PAD.

[Ricardo]

Well at least PM-Abhisit has succeeded, in uniting the country, if both UDD and PAD dislike him !

[whybother]

Who is still pulling Hun Sen's strings? The answer is simple. Who has most to gain? PAD.

The PAD is pulling Hun Sen's strings?

[Emptyset]

If Abhisit slides from power, the next person in is going to swing a club ruthlessly. Abhisit just like the other PMs that came after the military relinquished the PM position is sensitive to public opinion and hesitant to let loose with an all out crackdown. Had Samak Sundaravej crushed the occupation of Government House and responded with force to the seizure and blockade of the 3 regional airports in 2008, Operation Hiroshima would not have occurred. (Operation Hiroshima was the PAD code name for the BKK airport seizure.) Had Somchai Wongsawat not wavered when the PAD confrontation reached its zenith, he might have been able to contain the insurrection and inspired confidence in his leadership. PM Abhisit stands accused of brutality during last Aprils unrest in Bangkok. On the contrary, I believe his government showed initial restraint and patience. Had PM Abhisit moved more decisively, perhaps the shopping plazas would not have been burnt down. No matter what one's political views are, I think all of these PMs showed some semblance of humanity and sensitivity to the potential loss of life and possibility of mass bloodshed. The next PM is going to learn from their mistakes and react more violently and brutally to riots and acts of mass dissent. It won't matter if it's a Thaksin loyalist or a follower of PAD. Blood will be shed and lives will be lost.

Not necessarily true. Samak & Somchai had limited options. After the botched crackdown of 7th October, police and government wanted to avoid similar calamity, but police weren't really equipped to deal with PAD anyway. It still depends on what the army want to do. Prayuth might be prepared to crack some red shirt heads, but I doubt he'd take the same approach should PT win the election and PAD (or whoever) comes out to oppose them.

[tig28]

Well at least PM-Abhisit has succeeded, in uniting the country, if both UDD and PAD dislike him !

Very good one !!

[animatic]

The Reds wanted Abhisit out long before Aprils clearing of their rally. Their present argument is just another ineffectual tool that they misuse, as is their habit. They have done more to alienate the general electorate, than win hearts and minds.

The Yellows have been steadily working towards opposing him totally for some time, other wise the have no reason to exist. But lately their players are being brought in over the airport and so they are going farther against in consequence. Or their increasing intransigence vs the 'double standards' argument, has made leaving them be a non-starter.

Censure is just the bi-annual attempt at doing the same thing, reclaim power but any means.

Will Abhisit survive?

Likely yes; the election is in the pipeline and he is in control, regardless of the factional BS, business as usual. This is also tied into pre-election posturing and face making / saving, so not unexpected. Getting tougher finally on recalcitrant yellow fringes and such, is part of that posturing towards the majority of the country who are sick of both extremes.

To be isolated from the extremes is an enviable position if your concern is the majority.

Edited January 25, 2011 by animatic

[jayjay0]

Well at least PM-Abhisit has succeeded, in uniting the country, if both UDD and PAD dislike him !

A friend once told me that if you are not stepping on peoples toes you are doing some thing wrong.

And lets face it both yellow and red shirts are just a bunch of misguided people with time on there hands to do the bidding of a few of the so called elite. Would not surprise me to see some of those so called elite backing both the yellow and red shirt sides.

[Insight]

Will Abhisit survive?

Likely yes; the election is in the pipeline and he is in control, regardless of the factional BS, business as usual. This is also tied into pre-electioon posturing and face making/saving, so not unexpected. Getting tougher finally on recalcitrant yellow fringes and such, is part of that posturing towards the majority of the country who are sick of both extremes.

To be isolated from the extremes is an enviable position if your concern is the majority.

Exactly. In a country full of moderates, why should the lunatic opinions of these hard line clowns have any bearing on the rest of the population...? I highly doubt this will be a cause of just "surviving" for Abhisit.

[animatic]

Who is still pulling Hun Sen's strings? The answer is simple. Who has most to gain? PAD.

Hun sen is much more motivated by his own internal issues, including uniting a people behind nationalism.

This is the fall back position of all 3rd world leaders with trouble on the home front.

[SouthernMan3]

This man deserves a lot of respect !

He has helped Thailand through some of it's roughest troubles in modern times :jap:

[random]

I think based on the failures under their ill gained administration the dems have more chance of winning an election that I have of going to the moon, they know that as much as the rest of us non blinkered observers.

Now here is an idea that may be floating round the heads of the dems, they know they won't win, they know the reds in whatever guise will come in, probably bring back thaksin and he has some old scores to settle, so the best way out for the dems is for a coup, maybe they are still pulling the strings of the PAD, maybe they want them to agitate, maybe they want the army to seize control so it can be handed back to them, lets be frank here, under military rule there will be no election until they are sure the dems can regain power, I think the army know that to remove the reds from power again would bring the world down on them, there are only so many times you can make excuses before your actions speak for themselves.

For me, i have an intense dislike of both the PAD and the dems, this is a hard one, them battling agaisnt each other, who do I want to win? I think in the long run neither of them will, they both know that, there are more poor than wealthy and they both know that, and they have both been doing their best to alienate the poor.

Right, now its time for the usual yellows to come in and hijack the thread

[geriatrickid]

Deleted.

Too depressing a thought to share. Carry On.

Edited January 25, 2011 by geriatrickid

[jayjay0]

Deleted.

Too depressing a thought to share. Carry On.

Can't be as depressing as randoms post. Can not comprehend a desire to bring Thaksin back so over powering that one would ignore all the good points of the Government.

The army has nothing to do with the elections. that is a myth propagated by the various groups who really have nothing to offer other than Thaksin. Army or no army there will be a election this year. And Abhist will call it.

[whybother]

I think based on the failures under their ill gained administration the dems have more chance of winning an election that I have of going to the moon, they know that as much as the rest of us non blinkered observers.

<snip>

Here's a link for you when you need to buy tickets later in the year: http://www.virgingalactic.com/

[random]

Deleted.

Too depressing a thought to share. Carry On.

Can't be as depressing as randoms post. Can not comprehend a desire to bring Thaksin back so over powering that one would ignore all the good points of the Government.

The army has nothing to do with the elections. that is a myth propagated by the various groups who really have nothing to offer other than Thaksin. Army or no army there will be a election this year. And Abhist will call it.

I never said I wanted Thaksin back, maybe you should read my post again.

As for the army not calling the election or being in charge, well have a smiley

[rubl]

I think based on the failures under their ill gained administration the dems have more chance of winning an election that I have of going to the moon, they know that as much as the rest of us non blinkered observers.

Now here is an idea that may be floating round the heads of the dems, they know they won't win, they know the reds in whatever guise will come in, probably bring back thaksin and he has some old scores to settle, so the best way out for the dems is for a coup, maybe they are still pulling the strings of the PAD, maybe they want them to agitate, maybe they want the army to seize control so it can be handed back to them, lets be frank here, under military rule there will be no election until they are sure the dems can regain power, I think the army know that to remove the reds from power again would bring the world down on them, there are only so many times you can make excuses before your actions speak for themselves.

For me, i have an intense dislike of both the PAD and the dems, this is a hard one, them battling agaisnt each other, who do I want to win? I think in the long run neither of them will, they both know that, there are more poor than wealthy and they both know that, and they have both been doing their best to alienate the poor.

Right, now its time for the usual yellows to come in and hijack the thread

As this you think, I will not say too much. Only that maybe the Dem's are secretly funding red-shirts to agitate against the government, so the government can either re-instate the SoE, or maybe even get the Army to stage a coup and hand the government position back to the Dem's on a golden plate. This I do not really think, but I'm just trying to help you spinning stories

Edited January 25, 2011 by rubl

[jillwilliams999]

"Maybe the Dem's are secretly funding red-shirts to agitate against the government". Ha ha ha

[oldsailor35]

This man deserves a lot of respect !

He has helped Thailand through some of it's roughest troubles in modern times :jap:

You talking about Khun Thaksin ?

[SouthernMan3]

This man deserves a lot of respect !

He has helped Thailand through some of it's roughest troubles in modern times :jap:

You talking about Khun Thaksin ?

Are you kidding or just plain daft ?

[mommysboy]

If Abhisit slides from power, the next person in is going to swing a club ruthlessly. Abhisit just like the other PMs that came after the military relinquished the PM position is sensitive to public opinion and hesitant to let loose with an all out crackdown. Had Samak Sundaravej crushed the occupation of Government House and responded with force to the seizure and blockade of the 3 regional airports in 2008, Operation Hiroshima would not have occurred. (Operation Hiroshima was the PAD code name for the BKK airport seizure.) Had Somchai Wongsawat not wavered when the PAD confrontation reached its zenith, he might have been able to contain the insurrection and inspired confidence in his leadership. PM Abhisit stands accused of brutality during last Aprils unrest in Bangkok. On the contrary, I believe his government showed initial restraint and patience. Had PM Abhisit moved more decisively, perhaps the shopping plazas would not have been burnt down. No matter what one's political views are, I think all of these PMs showed some semblance of humanity and sensitivity to the potential loss of life and possibility of mass bloodshed. The next PM is going to learn from their mistakes and react more violently and brutally to riots and acts of mass dissent. It won't matter if it's a Thaksin loyalist or a follower of PAD. Blood will be shed and lives will be lost.

So we stick with an unelected, undemocratic, ineffectual, corrupt, army backed regime then, as the grass is even moreshXtty on the other side. You really believe what you write? And anyway what would be the pont of maintaining this absurd and damaging status quo?

[rubl]

So we stick with an unelected, undemocratic, ineffectual, corrupt, army backed regime then, as the grass is even moreshXtty on the other side. You really believe what you write? And anyway what would be the pont of maintaining this absurd and damaging status quo?

You really believe what you write? Well, never mind, you're entitled to an opinion

[Buchholz]

Chalerm be the next PM by Songkhran?

Chalerm is out, someone else is in...

Thai opposition eyes Thaksin's sister for PM

BANGKOK, January 7, 2011 (AFP) - A sister of fugitive former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra has emerged as a possible opposition candidate for prime minister as elections loom, a party spokesman said Friday.

Yingluck, 43, is the youngest of Thaksin's siblings. If elected to office, she would be Thailand's first female prime minister.

from the thread:

Pheu Thai MPs: Thaksin Approved His Sister Yingluck To Become Party Leader

Edited January 25, 2011 by Buchholz

[0zz1]

Actually the more I think about it, the bigger the changes are that Dems will win. To be honest do we have any other realistic choices? Yingluck as pm instead of Abhisit?

Or lets put it this way, if not for Abhisit and Dems in the power the second best option would be military coup and the generals in power for the next term or two...

[LomSak27]

Was it even a month ago that bastion of the free Press, The Nation, claimed that PM Abhisit was ageing like a fine wine?

Looks like they have finally been forced to acknowledge reality. What wonders may come?

[animatic]

No successful regime in Thailand is ever not backed by the army.

Historically this has always been the case. Not to say all elements of the army agree.

One reason for this, is that several regimes here have been utterly incompetent and focused more on corruption, personal power and monopoly interest. Or more egregiously from army perspective focused on trying to take control of the armies internal profit centers. We know they exist, partly because there is not enough actual pay to support the ingrained Kow tow power structure and the discipline that comes with it. So the only way to maintain control and discipline is through typical, or classical, kow tow financial means.

This doesn't mean that the army should be profiting on the people, but as an example;

The police have profit centers and the army have profit centers, and both are in competition against each other. And to some extent keep each other in check. Is this right, no, but it is historical fact of Thai society. One side gaining a political significant ascendancy over the other creates instability.

When a police centered politician, such as Thaksin, tries to take over the armies control for his group, and thus the armies profit centers, then if they don't bite back, there would become a total monopoly. A monopoly is not good for anyone, they are all bad enough as is in competition. Now we can argue that 'civilian control of the army and police' is bedrock to democracy, but that ignores WHY certain civilians are attempting to take control.

ie Profit through control vs. civilian rule and fairness through control.

So it is pretty clear that the army will not support a politician that will try to do an end run around them for the wrong reasons, but the more recent period of civilian control over the army proved that it would allow the right leaders to exercise control. But if the wrong one comes in then for logical reasons, from the army point of view, they stop agreeing with the bad leaders. Since we know HOW bad leaders gain control, it is clear the army will stop that action, because it creates instability and the path to dictatorship. Any individual aspiring to absolute control is by their very nature a bad leader.

Do we want things differently, of course, the 'how to change it' is the 900lb gorilla in the corner of Thailands society. We had seen some more positive moves towards this goal, but certain parties are never satisfied with working for the good of the country, and it appears the army is the only bulwark against them. Certainly the police are not, if anything they are a symptom and a cause. Change will come when it becomes less of a fight for power and controlling the trough to satisfy kow tow ends. Is this possible here? Who knows, but as long as politicians have this as their prime motivation, change can't happen..

Edited January 26, 2011 by animatic