Japan Quake Expected To Have Short-Term Impact On Thai Economy: UTCC

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UTCC: Quake Expected to Have Short-term Impact on Thai Economy

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce believes that the earthquake in Japan will have a short-term impact on Thai exports and may affect GDP.

Academics say it may take three to five months for Japan to recover from the devastation.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Center for Economic and Business Forecasting Director, Thanawan Polwichai disclosed that the earthquake that hit Japan last Friday will have a short-term impact on the Thai economy, affecting exports and Japanese tourist confidence, both of which are expected to dip in the coming months.

Nonetheless, he is confident that the situation will stabilize and return to normal by the fourth quarter of this year.

As for the damage assessment to the Japanese economy, Thanawan said that he is still awaiting exact numbers and figures, but from his monitoring of news reports, he said that oil refineries, businesses and private property were ravaged by the massive tsunami.

He estimates total damage of around 0.5 percent of their GDP, or approximately 25 billion US dollars.

Thanawan added that if total damages do not exceed the estimates, Japan's GDP is likely to expand by 1.3 to 1.4 percent, slightly lower than the 1.6 percent initally projected, and it may take Japan three to five months to recover.

-- Tan Network 2011-03-14

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BoT concerned over Japanese investment in Thailand

BANGKOK, 14 March 2011 (NNT) – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is worrying that the foreign direct investment (FDI) made by Japanese investors in Thailand might be affected from the recent quake and tsunami attack in Japan.

BoT Governor Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul believed that the Thai economic growth should not be affected much by the catastrophe in Japan based on initial assessment although Thailand and Japan have very close trade and investment.

On the contrary, the governor noted Japan might order more goods from Thailand for the rehabilitation in the country.

Dr Prasarn confirmed that the BoT was monitoring the movement of Japanese FDI in order to assess the extent of impact from the recent natural disaster that the Japanese investors in Thailand were facing.

The governor believed that Japanese investors might delay their investment in Thailand if their factories or parent offices in their home country were damaged. He admitted that the Thai economic outlook hence might be affected.

-- NNT 2011-03-14

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Thai trade officials told to monitor business climate amid quake & political uprising

BANGKOK, 14 March 2011 (NNT)-The Commerce Ministry has instructed all Thai trade representatives around the world to monitor Thai exports in their host countries in the wake of natural disasters and political uprising.

Commerce Minister Pornthiva Nakasai said following the quake in Japan her Ministry has been analyzing the impact it could have on investments and exports from Thailand. She elaborated that the damage to export of Thai products has not been established yet at this point, adding that all 3 trade offices in Japan have already been instructed to report the situation to the Ministry.

According to Ms. Pornthiva, such information will be used in formulating a plan to boost Thai export to Japan. She also speculated that food exports to Japan may increase due food and water scarcity after the quake: however, jasmine rice may decrease.

Director-General of Export Promotion Department Ms Nantawan Sakultanak said that while politics and natural disasters are exacerbating across the world, Thai trade representatives overseas will be reporting on business climate of their host countries on a weekly basis as necessary plans can be formulated in advance to restore Thai export.

-- NNT 2011-03-14

[Soutpeel]

Personally I think the esteemed forcasting director is talking thorugh his ar*e

"Academics say it may take three to five months for Japan to recover from the devastation"...and pigs will fly.....there are years to reconstruction before Japan recovers..

"He estimates total damage of around 0.5 percent of their GDP, or approximately 25 billion US dollars"........

The estimates for the New Zealand earth quake are put at $ 11 Billion and 1.5% of the GDP, as serious and sad as the New Zealand earthquake was, the devastation is nowhere near what has happening in the Japan

I would suspect as well that Japan will be calling in any loans made, and you can forget about addtional overseas investment for years, and current investments are "pulled"

[Lancelot]

Personally I think the esteemed forcasting director is talking thorugh his ar*e

"Academics say it may take three to five months for Japan to recover from the devastation"...and pigs will fly.....there are years to reconstruction before Japan recovers..

"He estimates total damage of around 0.5 percent of their GDP, or approximately 25 billion US dollars"........

The estimates for the New Zealand earth quake are put at $ 11 Billion and 1.5% of the GDP, as serious and sad as the New Zealand earthquake was, the devastation is nowhere near what has happening in the Japan

I would suspect as well that Japan will be calling in any loans made, and you can forget about addtional overseas investment for years, and current investments are "pulled"

Its too soon to accurately estimate the financial impact; my hunch is that the academics are pulling those figures out of the air. Some times its best to say "We simply don't know..."

[Pib]

The academics are just repeating news reports they're heard and guessing at everything else....takes a lot of education to turn a wild ass guess into an educated guess.

[bangon04]

The academics are just repeating news reports they're heard and guessing at everything else....takes a lot of education to turn a wild ass guess into an educated guess.

Without all these academic experts telling the people that everything is a lot better than it seems, Thai people might start worrying......

It is a lesson in how to make "Mai Pen Rai" sound like a doctoral thesis.

[atsiii]

Personally I think the esteemed forcasting director is talking thorugh his ar*e

"Academics say it may take three to five months for Japan to recover from the devastation"...and pigs will fly.....there are years to reconstruction before Japan recovers..

"He estimates total damage of around 0.5 percent of their GDP, or approximately 25 billion US dollars"........

The estimates for the New Zealand earth quake are put at $ 11 Billion and 1.5% of the GDP, as serious and sad as the New Zealand earthquake was, the devastation is nowhere near what has happening in the Japan

I would suspect as well that Japan will be calling in any loans made, and you can forget about addtional overseas investment for years, and current investments are "pulled"

Its too soon to accurately estimate the financial impact; my hunch is that the academics are pulling those figures out of the air. Some times its best to say "We simply don't know..."

5555... Agreed! Was it Marcus Aurelius that said (and I paraphrase),"Tis better to sit quiet and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt?"

I've read estimates of 100 Billion dollars or more in damage at a time when the world's third largest economy is already (before the disaster!) the most in-debt and thus fragile economy of the developed world. The loss of life and property is simply frightening; with the worst of the nuclear repercussions still to come. But at least Thailand has offered 5M baht in aid--enough to repair a couple of houses or one fishing boat!

Edited March 15, 2011 by atsiii

[animatic]

Academics say it may take three to five months for Japan to recover from the devastation.

'Ummm... doubtful.

More likely;

it may take three to five YEARS for Japan

to recover from the devastation.

But they have to talk down from those ivory towers to justify their tenure.

Edited March 15, 2011 by animatic