Bhum Jai Thai And Chart Thai Pattana Unveil Alliance

[webfact]

Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana unveil alliance

By THE NATION

Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana parties yesterday announced an alliance after the upcoming general election "regardless of the results" - which means they can join either the Democrats or Pheu Thai Party to form the next coalition government.

However, leaders of Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana rejected speculation that the move was aimed at boosting their bargaining leverage and chance of returning to power.

Chat Thai Pattana leader Chumpol Silapa-archa and Bhum Jai Thai leader Chaovarat Chanweerakul called a press conference at the Siam City Hotel, where key figures from both parties gathered for a lunch to discuss their tie-up.

The meeting was held behind closed doors and key party figures who attended refused to reveal any details to the media.

The parties' de-facto leaders, Newin Chidchob of Bhum Jai Thai and Banharn Silapa-archa of Chart Thai Pattana, also attended the lunch, titled "Holding Hands and Going Together". But they didn't take part in the press conference after, sitting instead among the journalists.

Newin was initially reluctant to be in the conference room, but when the veteran Banharn told him, "If you are not inside, I will also leave the room," he went inside the room quickly.

Both are serving separate five-year bans from politics.

Banharn is his party's chief adviser while Newin holds no official party post. But they are believed to have retained their influence in both parties. Other banned politicians from both parties also were present at yesterday's luncheon.

In the statement read out by Chumpol and Chaovarat, the parties agreed to work together in order to protect the monarchy and to bring reconciliation among people in the country.

Both parties promised to be political allies and agreed that, after the election, whatever the results, they would be in the same camp.

"The election result has not come out, and you can't be sure we will be a key factor or will have the power to bargain," Chumpol said, adding that his party might win only five House seats and Bhum Jai Thai 10 seats. With gasps from his political colleagues, Chumpol added that he "may have overstated it". Banharn, his elder brother, joked that he preferred a zero to be added after the figure.

When asked about the possibility of the two parties joining a coalition led by Pheu Thai, Chumpol said that was a matter for the future, but added: "We are ready to work with any party that shares the same ideology with ours. We do not prevent anyone."

Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana are the second and third largest partners in the current Democrat-led coalition.

Newin yesterday compared the political alliance to a marriage. "Banharn and I are senior witnesses to this marriage, and the couple will certainly stay together for a long time."

Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said yesterday he viewed the two parties' political alliance as a bid to boost their chance of winning the election.

Most Cabinet members from the two minor parties skipped yesterday's Cabinet meeting shortly before noon to attend the lunch.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who chaired yesterday's Cabinet meeting, said Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai from Bhum Jai Thai should have been at the meeting as there was a discussion about the rising price of consumer products.

-- The Nation 2011-03-15

[SanSaiExPat]

No brave Thai Visa pundits care to comment on this development?

[otherstuff1957]

Chart Thai currently has 32 seats and BJT currently has 25 seats. Together they hold more than 10% of the seats in parliament. Assuming that neither PT nor the Democrats win a majority in the next election (a pretty safe assumption!) and that CT & BJT win about as many seats as they hold now (another fairly safe assumption), this alliance will give them a lot of bargaining power.

Both the Democrats and PT are probably already wooing the new alliance, as they will almost certainly decide which party will get to form the next government and who will be the next PM.

The upcoming election will be like that quote from Shakespeare "full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing". The real decisions will take place behind the scenes.

[jdinasia]

No brave Thai Visa pundits care to comment on this development?

Please feel free to share with us what YOU think this means.

I doubt anybody that follows politics at all is surprised by this "development" as small parties tend to group together for bargaining power in coalition governments.

[Thailand]

Irrespective of the winning parties policies we will be happy to be part of it and cream off what we can-that's what it means.

[hammered]

Leverage after the next election. Possibly the chance of a non-Dem and non-PTP PM too.

BJT will almost certainly have more MPs than they currently have, which will make a powerful block. It is also aimed at attracting PTP deserters who now have an option of joining CTP which isnt as toxic as BJT with red diehards and still being guaranteed a seat in government ranks.

[jdinasia]

Leverage after the next election. Possibly the chance of a non-Dem and non-PTP PM too.

BJT will almost certainly have more MPs than they currently have, which will make a powerful block. It is also aimed at attracting PTP deserters who now have an option of joining CTP which isnt as toxic as BJT with red diehards and still being guaranteed a seat in government ranks.

Hammered, what do you think the chances are that BJT would switch their current alliance, assuming that (unlikely) PTP managed 50% of the seats? I feel that Newin is an opportunist, but frankly if PTP could get 50% on their own I doubt they'd take BJT back. Only if BJT is forced through necessity to take BJT back would (imho) PTP entertain accepting BJT into a coalition gov't.

I see the news posted here as asserting some strength AND locking down CTP into going along with Newin leading to possibly another cabinet seat or two to exploit.

[SomTumTiger]

Political whores of a feather, flock together - enough said.

[anterian]

In any battle all plans change after the first round is fired.

Robbie Burns puts it better, "The best laid schemes o' mice an' men

Gang aft a-gley,"

[animatic]

Leverage after the next election. Possibly the chance of a non-Dem and non-PTP PM too.

BJT will almost certainly have more MPs than they currently have, which will make a powerful block. It is also aimed at attracting PTP deserters who now have an option of joining CTP which isnt as toxic as BJT with red diehards and still being guaranteed a seat in government ranks.

Hammered, what do you think the chances are that BJT would switch their current alliance, assuming that (unlikely) PTP managed 50% of the seats? I feel that Newin is an opportunist, but frankly if PTP could get 50% on their own I doubt they'd take BJT back. Only if BJT is forced through necessity to take BJT back would (imho) PTP entertain accepting BJT into a coalition gov't.

I see the news posted here as asserting some strength AND locking down CTP into going along with Newin leading to possibly another cabinet seat or two to exploit.

If PTP gets 50% they will tell all others to take a hike. They want the deals that power will give and legislation that benefits the masses is not something they historically deal in. Sharing... HA! only when forced to.

Likely the Dems will do better and should that be 50%, they will act more inclusively, while acting from a postion of power, being more pragmatic. I suspect they will encourage a coalition to make their majority more solid, and their ability to make legislation an easier road to hoe.

If it is 40% vs dems 40% then we get back into the lowest levels of back room horse trading. All the back room deals, bribes, threats will come into play. Thai politics as usual.

And of course whatever shakes out like weevils from a cotton comb will be lambasted for 4 more years as total corruption by the losing side. Expect a Dems win to signify one last Songkran styled Fall Festival of Violence For Democracy from the Rede Shirts. Force a coup in theory, or public opprobrium agains the new government. Thaksin as show he doesn't lose gracefully ever on his best or worst day. Expect this to go on while he lives.

Edited March 15, 2011 by animatic

[jayboy]

I feel that Newin is an opportunist,

I wonder how you possibly could have got that impression.

[hammered]

Leverage after the next election. Possibly the chance of a non-Dem and non-PTP PM too.

BJT will almost certainly have more MPs than they currently have, which will make a powerful block. It is also aimed at attracting PTP deserters who now have an option of joining CTP which isnt as toxic as BJT with red diehards and still being guaranteed a seat in government ranks.

Hammered, what do you think the chances are that BJT would switch their current alliance, assuming that (unlikely) PTP managed 50% of the seats? I feel that Newin is an opportunist, but frankly if PTP could get 50% on their own I doubt they'd take BJT back. Only if BJT is forced through necessity to take BJT back would (imho) PTP entertain accepting BJT into a coalition gov't.

I see the news posted here as asserting some strength AND locking down CTP into going along with Newin leading to possibly another cabinet seat or two to exploit.

Personally I think it is unlikely they will switch alliance although I think BJT-CTP would like to name the PM and exclude Abhisit. For all the reasons everyone knows unless PTP win an overall majority the current coalition will be maintained but the agreement will almost certainly be changed and Abhisit hasnt impressed some of the behind the scenes players and remains a hate figure for the reds. It is easy to see the current lot with a new and neutralish PM from CTP say and Korn at finance

Still a lot can happen before July.

[HeavyDrinker]

I wonder when the political 'parties' will finally run out of adjectives and verbs as to how 'Thai' they are...

Edited March 15, 2011 by HeavyDrinker

[jdinasia]

Personally I think it is unlikely they will switch alliance although I think BJT-CTP would like to name the PM and exclude Abhisit. For all the reasons everyone knows unless PTP win an overall majority the current coalition will be maintained but the agreement will almost certainly be changed and Abhisit hasnt impressed some of the behind the scenes players and remains a hate figure for the reds. It is easy to see the current lot with a new and neutralish PM from CTP say and Korn at finance

Still a lot can happen before July.

I pretty much agree, I think Abhisit remaining as PM is a big question mark. Then again, if the Dems just add a few more seats he may well be the "people's choice" ... He is now stained by the events of last year even though I think he did things as well as anyone could have under the circumstances. Those stains may get cleansed away some, after all we have seen people with dastardly pasts make it to the PM slot before.

I still think the reds can't afford an election right now and will deliberately stir things up before the house is dissolved. If they do under a caretaker government they risk a much more intensive reprisal AND the resentment they would gain at the polls.

[hammered]

Personally I think it is unlikely they will switch alliance although I think BJT-CTP would like to name the PM and exclude Abhisit. For all the reasons everyone knows unless PTP win an overall majority the current coalition will be maintained but the agreement will almost certainly be changed and Abhisit hasnt impressed some of the behind the scenes players and remains a hate figure for the reds. It is easy to see the current lot with a new and neutralish PM from CTP say and Korn at finance

Still a lot can happen before July.

I pretty much agree, I think Abhisit remaining as PM is a big question mark. Then again, if the Dems just add a few more seats he may well be the "people's choice" ... He is now stained by the events of last year even though I think he did things as well as anyone could have under the circumstances. Those stains may get cleansed away some, after all we have seen people with dastardly pasts make it to the PM slot before.

I still think the reds can't afford an election right now and will deliberately stir things up before the house is dissolved. If they do under a caretaker government they risk a much more intensive reprisal AND the resentment they would gain at the polls.

I dont think it is a secret that the reds would like a later election. However, unless the censure terrifies Abhisit into a delay (and judging from the boring repetative rubbish early this seems unlikely) going for street action is very risky for them as it may backfire and it may drive a wedge with many PTP MPs

[Payboy]

Bhum Jai Thai And Chart Thai Pattana Unveil Alliance

Let's see how long this reptilian wedlock lasts.