What Will You Do In 10 Years?

[ianbroad]

I think in the next 10 years we are going to see great changes in the world. Inflation is going to massively devalue (or bring down to the true value of) western currencies, and the time will come when people realize that a bowl of rice is worth the same in Asia as it is in America.

We will see an end to fiat currencies and Asia and the developing world will finally be paid fair prices for their produce, we will see a lot more production in the west especially farming and heavy industries as there will be less importation as the cost of labor in the east and west will be more even. The west has a long way to fall, but i believe it will.

In 10 years I see Thailand will still be largely agricultural and manufacturing but it will not be cheap compared with western standards. The cost of buying a house in rural thailand will be similar to buying one in rural america, the cost of basic commodities will be almost the same. The price of labour will be much higher than it is now valued in western currencies.

So this might be a good time to invest in farm land in Thailand? I think so...

Maybe not a good time to invest in property in Pattaya!

Edited March 26, 2011 by ianbroad

[Ulysses G.]

There are a lot of deluded fortune tellers on here. Welcome aboard!

[pjclark1]

Rice is cheaper in the UK than in Thailand

As is fruit juice and many fruits.

(I can't explain that)

Girls are a lot cheaper in Thailand though, but in 10 years I suspect I will no longer care.

But now is not really a good time to invest in Thailand, a war/revolution is coming, very, very soon.

Edited March 26, 2011 by pjclark1

[Wrong Turn]

Ianbroad,

What's happening is not new news. Many scenarios.

How to plan?

Good question: many ways.

gold, land in *certain* areas, and yes commodities have been hot and will be. Boon for some of the few investing in them, and painful for many more (and possible us).

Hard to say.

The paradigm is changing between East and West, and withing the West itself.

The new model is fast approaching.

[gregb]

Rice is cheaper in the UK than in Thailand

As is fruit juice and many fruits.

(I can't explain that)

Girls are a lot cheaper in Thailand though, but in 10 years I suspect I will no longer care.

But now is not really a good time to invest in Thailand, a war/revolution is coming, very, very soon.

War will come to the West before it hits Thailand. Thailand is currently on a trajectory to return to its roots. A more corrupt state, with an increasingly wealthy elite and a peasant underclass. The middle class rise in Thailand is over. 10 - 20 years will see energy depletion really starting to bite in every country, and every country will respond differently. 10 years may just about be enough time to see the electric grid beginning to collapse in the rural Thai countryside.

Meanwhile, I think the West in general will have become a series of totalitarian states on a war time footing. Commodities will be strictly rationed, and all movements and communications monitored under the guise of stopping terrorists, who will be labelled as the enemy. They will likely be a mixture of foreign and domestic insurgents who chafe under the stringent control asserted by Western central governments. The West will likely be a place only Hitler could love.

No, now is probably not a good time to invest in any country, be it Thailand or the West. It is hard to find good investment opportunities when you are looking forward to generations of global economic decline and collapse.

Nothing wrong with buying farmland that you can live on if push comes to shove, but it won't turn out to be a good investment...just good insurance. I'd stick with gold as the investment of choice. Gold too will peak as the industrial economy implodes, but that peak is likely still a long way off.

WrongTurn is correct the new model is fast approaching. The new model is going to be some unknown combination of war, sickness, death and misery. Your great, great grandchildren will likely enjoy a simpler life because of it, but the next 50 - 100 years are not going to be pleasant for any of us. There are going to be lots of fortunes lost and lots of poverty and hunger, whether you employ trilingual gardeners or not.

[zzaa09]

There are a lot of deluded fortune tellers on here. Welcome aboard!

...the sustained ideals of a future has always baffled me. For me, I stand pat where I am - independent and self-sufficient. Far, far away from the fabricated and anxious craziness.

[Beetlejuice]

As a farang it is a not a good idea to make any investments in land, businesses or real estate in Thailand.

I do agree that there maybe many changes in the next 10 years, but we should take into consideration that farangs have no status whatsoever in Thailand, could be told to leave at any time in the future, plus our legal rights we have over land are extremely limited and in most cases not legal, especially agricultural.

I believe we should go in the opposite direction and not invest in anything Thai. It`s like the peripheral carpet that can be pulled from under our feet at any time.

Future changes in Thailand, judging by the attitudes of the Thais are most likely to go against us rather then be of benefit.

And that`s my doom and gloom forecast for today, but I think it makes sense?

Edited March 26, 2011 by Beetlejuice

[jdinasia]

I was thinking about investing in natural latex .... and manufacturing a stronger condom

[farang000999]

As the cost of living rises, the rate of reproduction falls. developing nations have many young people because their parents know that they will produce more than they consume long term. japanese and singaporeans know their off spring WON'T.

so... u may be surprised to see that food prices never really go up that dramatically..

japan's population is projected to shrink drastically because of teh high cost of living. deflation, not inflation.

[farang000999]

the people who will be most effected in the future are Americans. they currently enjoy a HUGE subsidy by holding the reserve currency of the world. without that, demand for dollars would be drastically lower and so would it's value.

[Jingthing]

the people who will be most effected in the future are Americans. they currently enjoy a HUGE subsidy by holding the reserve currency of the world. without that, demand for dollars would be drastically lower and so would it's value.

I think you're right!

[canuckamuck]

What will I do in 10 years?

Ever see Mad Max?

Currently I am weaponizing a fleet of Honda Jazz and tuk tuks, and making fuel tankers disguised as song taews. I plan to start from an underground base in Doi sakett and move west to eventually conquer the military capital of Napyidaw. From there the world will fall at my feet.

[lovelomsak]

I will probably be right were I am now. It was a choice I made.I came to Thailand to escape political correctness,womens nazi feminism,taxed on everything I bought, and people who expect the government to be responsible for their lives.

As far as costs go I could live in Canada better than I do in Thailand as far as housing and autos go.If I lived in rural Canada I could buy good house in a great rural location for less than I can buy one here in Thailand in rural location. Townhouse in rural towns in Thailand are 3 million baht now, mind you this is on a business street . not some back soi, back soi is maybe 1/2 that., 3 million baht is 100,000 canadian dollars I could buy a nice house near the ocean for that in rural canada.if you donot believe me check site mlscanada and find out for yourself. As far as cars go I can buy a decent Mercedes convertible in Canada for $100,000 which is about 3 million baht.. 3million baht in Thailand willnot even buy me a decent used convertible of any make.

After taking care of essentials like house and car, cost of living is low in Canada. We are getting Brits in a steady stream now they can retire their very comfortably on pensions there. With house and car paid a person can live comfortably on the amount it takes t qualify for retirement here in Thailand.

So costs arenot the real issue for living here in Thailand for many of us. Here a person can definitely live as a spectator and not have to be bothered with how the country is ran,how it is doing politically,how it is doing finacially ,or anything else. A person can live here anonymously. Just live and do as they please.

There are only 2 things that could make me leave Thailand, Number one is be told to leave (for whatever reason) and secondly if I could no longer get a girlfriend.

I would like to add one thing which is opinion only. To stay happy in Thailand invest nothing rent everything but vehicles. Keep al investments outside the country so as to keep the feeling of mobility without ties to complicate things here. Let the Thais compete for material status and wealth it is their country. Just rent and spend with in your means. Be happy being a quest here and treat it as such.

[canuckamuck]

I will probably be right were I am now. It was a choice I made.I came to Thailand to escape political correctness,womens nazi feminism,taxed on everything I bought, and people who expect the government to be responsible for their lives.

As far as costs go I could live in Canada better than I do in Thailand as far as housing and autos go.If I lived in rural Canada I could buy good house in a great rural location for less than I can buy one here in Thailand in rural location. Townhouse in rural towns in Thailand are 3 million baht now, mind you this is on a business street . not some back soi, back soi is maybe 1/2 that., 3 million baht is 100,000 canadian dollars I could buy a nice house near the ocean for that in rural canada.if you donot believe me check site mlscanada and find out for yourself. As far as cars go I can buy a decent Mercedes convertible in Canada for $100,000 which is about 3 million baht.. 3million baht in Thailand willnot even buy me a decent used convertible of any make.

After taking care of essentials like house and car, cost of living is low in Canada. We are getting Brits in a steady stream now they can retire their very comfortably on pensions there. With house and car paid a person can live comfortably on the amount it takes t qualify for retirement here in Thailand.

So costs arenot the real issue for living here in Thailand for many of us. Here a person can definitely live as a spectator and not have to be bothered with how the country is ran,how it is doing politically,how it is doing finacially ,or anything else. A person can live here anonymously. Just live and do as they please.

There are only 2 things that could make me leave Thailand, Number one is be told to leave (for whatever reason) and secondly if I could no longer get a girlfriend.

I would like to add one thing which is opinion only. To stay happy in Thailand invest nothing rent everything but vehicles. Keep al investments outside the country so as to keep the feeling of mobility without ties to complicate things here. Let the Thais compete for material status and wealth it is their country. Just rent and spend with in your means. Be happy being a quest here and treat it as such.

Food, clothing, utilities, hiring any tradesman/professional, taxes, traffic fines are all much more expensive in the great white north.

Edited March 27, 2011 by canuckamuck

[Ulysses G.]

I will probably be right were I am now. It was a choice I made.I came to Thailand to escape political correctness,womens nazi feminism,taxed on everything I bought, and people who expect the government to be responsible for their lives.

Food, clothing, utilities, hiring any tradesman/professional, taxes, traffic fines are all much more expensive in the great white north.

Why ruin such a good fantasy with facts?

[kpmsprtd]

I don't see gregb as ranting. Rather, I see him as spot on with his description of totalitarian states based on fighting "terrorism". In many ways, we are already there. Americans are far less free than they were back in the time of Abraham Lincoln (1840s). Back then, it was NOT okay for police to invade a citizen's home. Now, it's considered normal, and even glorified on execrable television shows like Cops and Steven Seagal's Lawman. Indeed, the last time I attended a professional basketball game, I was treated to a halftime display of police German Shepherds and SWAT teams. If gregb is crazy, please put me in the same prison unit as him.

War will come to the West before it hits Thailand. Thailand is currently on a trajectory to return to its roots. A more corrupt state, with an increasingly wealthy elite and a peasant underclass. The middle class rise in Thailand is over. 10 - 20 years will see energy depletion really starting to bite in every country, and every country will respond differently. 10 years may just about be enough time to see the electric grid beginning to collapse in the rural Thai countryside.

Meanwhile, I think the West in general will have become a series of totalitarian states on a war time footing. Commodities will be strictly rationed, and all movements and communications monitored under the guise of stopping terrorists, who will be labelled as the enemy. They will likely be a mixture of foreign and domestic insurgents who chafe under the stringent control asserted by Western central governments. The West will likely be a place only Hitler could love.

No, now is probably not a good time to invest in any country, be it Thailand or the West. It is hard to find good investment opportunities when you are looking forward to generations of global economic decline and collapse.

Nothing wrong with buying farmland that you can live on if push comes to shove, but it won't turn out to be a good investment...just good insurance. I'd stick with gold as the investment of choice. Gold too will peak as the industrial economy implodes, but that peak is likely still a long way off.

WrongTurn is correct the new model is fast approaching. The new model is going to be some unknown combination of war, sickness, death and misery. Your great, great grandchildren will likely enjoy a simpler life because of it, but the next 50 - 100 years are not going to be pleasant for any of us. There are going to be lots of fortunes lost and lots of poverty and hunger, whether you employ trilingual gardeners or not.

[thaimate]

Chances are i will be dead or to old to care,the wife has farming land and a very nice building plot back in her home town which we have owned for a very long time ,when i am gone she will leave Patters and either build a house near her familly or go to live with her sister who rattles around in a five bed house in bkk on her own,either way i doubt whether i will care much by then

[Naam]

As far as cars go I can buy a decent Mercedes convertible in Canada for $100,000 which is about 3 million baht...

...and have an uninterrupted 360º view of the surrounding landscape 17.5 days a year when temperatures are above freezing point

joke aside. Canada is a beautiful country and when life in the U.S. became difficult for foreigners without a green card we were thinking in 2004 of moving to British Columbia and its "bearable" climate. unfortunately we missed the qualification for a retiree residence permit by mere three points. going for an investor visa and paying a princely sum of income tax was out of question.

[Naam]

What will I do in 10 years? Ever see Mad Max?

Currently I am weaponizing a fleet of Honda Jazz and tuk tuks, and making fuel tankers disguised as song taews. I plan to start from an underground base in Doi sakett and move west to eventually conquer the military capital of Napyidaw. From there the world will fall at my feet.

when the going gets tough, Canuckamuck gets going!

[tim armstrong]

At present I have slightly less than a 50/50 chance of being around in the next 10 years. But being an optimist I will still be working my way through the 'bucket list'. Its just a pity I won't have a wealthy benefactor to help. I will still whinge and complain about Thai drivers, the price of cheese - if their are still cows; Also Pattaya, hedge fund managers, immigration rules,and tourists from certain countries weighing in at 130 kgs, in their 'budgie smugglers'- on motorbikes.

I will still be living in Thailand, be married to the same person, and be close to my children, who will be a bit concerned about my increasing eccentricity. Even if the world is full of shit by then, I will worry less about politicians, but more about poverty, and the 'water ownwership wars' that will have started in many countries.

Red wine will be affordable in Thailand,and of good quality. China will be producing some, as well. The climate will be less humid and slightly cooler. I will speak Thai properly, and travel less. I still won't have a clue about tomorrow so I won't be bored. Thai women will be even more beautiful, but I'll have more trouble remembering my fantasies. I look forward to it all.

[Lancelot]

Rice is cheaper in the UK than in Thailand

As is fruit juice and many fruits.

(I can't explain that)

Interesting!

The UK has relatively low import duties on food perhaps? The Vietnamese Dong (yeah, I'll get grief for this, LOL!) had been devalued so their rice would be cheaper.

Apples would certainly be cheaper since they can be grown locally in the UK.

[mstribling]

I'll probably be considerably slower, unable to escape jelouse ladies.

Probably not much will change.

I bet my computer will be kickass. Channel 7 will still suck, and we still won't have 3G.

[geriatrickid]

It all comes down to 3 things water, energy, and arable land. North America is sitting pretty. It is the only region that is energy self sufficient if the USA was forced into some conservation measures. It also has water resources and full fertile lands along with the natural fertilizers needed to make things grow. Countries susceptible to water shortages and energy shortages are in deep trouble. Thailand is one of those countries at risk as its key water supplies flow out of regions dominated by China. Thailand is an energy importer and it will not be able to pay the increased costs of energy imports without societal pain.

[livinthailandos]

If the last 10 years has taught me anything its that life is unpredictable, certain things are predictable though

Basic needs: Food, Water, electricity, jobs, place to live

Things I didn't see coming 9/11, UK bombings, Madrid train bombings, 2 tsunami's, Hurricane katrina, unrest in the middle east thats spreading like wildfire, advancement in technology ( iphone ), Low Cost Airline Carriers. The rise of twitter and facebook. The US elects george bush not once but twice.

In the next 10 years will have a real demographics problem with aging populations meaning having to pay more in taxes to take care of the elderly. Many countries include China, Japan, USA, South Korea etc. On a side note at the moment many of these same countries are actually having a decrease in populations.

In the next 10 years the USA will no longer be a major player, look for china and india to be major players how they shape and change economies on all scales will be one thing. As far as thailand goes, realitically there won't be much change due to

1. Corruption

There is one thing that will change thailand but the outcome will depend on the people here.

[mark45y]

If the last 10 years has taught me anything its that life is unpredictable, certain things are predictable though

Basic needs: Food, Water, electricity, jobs, place to live

Things I didn't see coming 9/11, UK bombings, Madrid train bombings, 2 tsunami's, Hurricane katrina, unrest in the middle east thats spreading like wildfire, advancement in technology ( iphone ), Low Cost Airline Carriers. The rise of twitter and facebook. The US elects george bush not once but twice.

In the next 10 years will have a real demographics problem with aging populations meaning having to pay more in taxes to take care of the elderly. Many countries include China, Japan, USA, South Korea etc. On a side note at the moment many of these same countries are actually having a decrease in populations.

In the next 10 years the USA will no longer be a major player, look for china and india to be major players how they shape and change economies on all scales will be one thing. As far as thailand goes, realitically there won't be much change due to

1. Corruption

There is one thing that will change thailand but the outcome will depend on the people here.

If the USA is not a major player who will tell China not to turn of Thailand's water?

[livinthailandos]

Most likely the US won't have much to say to china since china holds a lot of US debt.

China is still the largest creditor nation of the United States. China now still holds a total of more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars of U.S. debt.

Let everyone pay attention to that key word more than 1 TRILLION Dollars of US Debt. As far as I'm concerned China might as well own some part of the US. or have serious major influence

[pjclark1]

It all comes down to 3 things water, energy, and arable land. North America is sitting pretty. It is the only region that is energy self sufficient if the USA was forced into some conservation measures. It also has water resources and full fertile lands along with the natural fertilizers needed to make things grow. Countries susceptible to water shortages and energy shortages are in deep trouble. Thailand is one of those countries at risk as its key water supplies flow out of regions dominated by China. Thailand is an energy importer and it will not be able to pay the increased costs of energy imports without societal pain.

America can't do anything without energy.

Farmers can't plant or harvest crops, come the end of the oil, America will self destruct in a couple of weeks, the people in the cities will devastate the countryside like a plague of locusts. Half the country will freeze to death in the first winter.

Thailand doesn't actually need anything from the outside world.

For example, my wifes farm is planted and harvested by hand, we are surrounded by mountains full of water.

They don't need any electricity or oil to live, but it is nice to have.

If I were to choose where to live when the energy ran out, America would be the last place on earth to choose.

You seem to know very little about surviving Peak Oil!

[F1fanatic]

Admittedly this is the first of gregb's posts that I've seen - but he has a point.

Thailand is likely to make life more difficult for us foreigners in the near future, but the West has far more problems.

No country (as far as I know) hates Thailand - but there are many countries that hate the West.

Terrorism is going to be a problem in the West for years to come, and at the moment, they are making even more enemies.

Edited March 27, 2011 by sbk
deleted quoted post removed

[mark45y]

It all comes down to 3 things water, energy, and arable land. North America is sitting pretty. It is the only region that is energy self sufficient if the USA was forced into some conservation measures. It also has water resources and full fertile lands along with the natural fertilizers needed to make things grow. Countries susceptible to water shortages and energy shortages are in deep trouble. Thailand is one of those countries at risk as its key water supplies flow out of regions dominated by China. Thailand is an energy importer and it will not be able to pay the increased costs of energy imports without societal pain.

America can't do anything without energy.

Farmers can't plant or harvest crops, come the end of the oil, America will self destruct in a couple of weeks, the people in the cities will devastate the countryside like a plague of locusts. Half the country will freeze to death in the first winter.

Thailand doesn't actually need anything from the outside world.

For example, my wifes farm is planted and harvested by hand, we are surrounded by mountains full of water.

They don't need any electricity or oil to live, but it is nice to have.

If I were to choose where to live when the energy ran out, America would be the last place on earth to choose.

You seem to know very little about surviving Peak Oil!

Where does Thailand get the money to run the government? Who pays the taxes? What does Thailand export besides rice?

When you think about oil in the US I would advise thinking about oil in North America and offshore oil that has not been tapped. Oh and don't forget shale oil deposits.

[murrinman]

sell out and retire to aussie