Suthep: Thai Democrat Party Will Form The Next Govt

[webfact]

Suthep: Democrat Party will form the next govt

By The Nation

Deputy PM says ruling party will win more than 200 seats, questions Pheu Thai claim it will bag over 260

The ruling Democrat Party yesterday expressed confidence it would win more than 200 House of Representatives seats in the upcoming election and be able to return to power.

Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban questioned the credibility of a claim by his party's major rival, Pheu Thai, that the opposition party would win more than 260 seats.

"They have the right to say so. But I also insist that I will win. We will do our best, particularly in the South, where we could win 99 per cent [of the seats] if not 100 per cent," Suthep said.

Suthep, who is also deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs, said the Democrat Party could win more than 200 seats, although it would be unable to form a new government on its own.

To form a government, the political party that wins the highest number of House seats needs support from more than 250 MPs in the 500-member House of Representatives.

"People are aware of the country's incidents and crises over the past two years. They have found that the current government, under Abhisit Vejjajiva's leadership, has led the country out of those crises," he said, adding that he believed the Democrat leader was the best choice for prime minister.

"I am sure that after the election, the Democrat Party will form the government again," Suthep said. He dismissed a perception that the party was being backed by the Army.

Political parties have carried out surveys about how they will fare in the upcoming election. Pheu Thai's public-opinion poll showed that the party could win 263-267 House seats. A separate survey by the Democrat Party found that it could get 205-213 seats. Another survey by the coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party found that it would become No 3, with the likelihood of winning 63-68 House seats.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai yesterday ruled out any possible negative impacts from the surprising departure of party chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who faxed his resignation from the party on Monday.

Pheu Thai deputy leader Plodprasop Suraswadi said he felt it was "dismaying and regretful" for Chavalit to leave the party but he did not think his resignation would affect its performance in the upcoming election.

"General Chavalit's departure is amicable and temporary only," he said, without elaborating.

He also disputed speculation that many Pheu Thai MPs would follow Chavalit. But he could not confirm whether Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong would join Pheu Thai, as the veteran politician had suggested earlier.

"I don't know about that. Snoh has his own party now. He has worked with Pheu Thai in the opposition," Plodprasop said.

Snoh, viewed as a close ally of Chavalit, is expected to have second thoughts about joining Pheu Thai after the ex-prime minister's decision to leave the opposition party.

Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Prom-phan yesterday rejected speculation that Chavalit had left the party because he was concerned that many Pheu Thai politicians have been accused of insulting the monarchy.

"There could be many factors [for Chavalit's resignation] and I don't think it has anything to do with me," said Jatuporn, who is a key red-shirt leader.

He also denied that the party was demoralised by Chavalit's departure.

-- The Nation 2011-04-20

[rubl]

I don't like the Democrats to get 99% of all votes in the South as k. Suthep predicts. Neither would I like PTP to get 99% of votes in North / North-East. It would show a possible conflict. I hope at least 30 - 40% of votes gets to smaller parties, much more healthy for a democracy.

On a lighter tone, with the guestimates of PTP, Democrats and BJT already between 531 and 548 seats out of a total of 500 are covered

Edited April 20, 2011 by rubl

[Buchholz]

Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Prom-phan yesterday rejected speculation that Chavalit had left the party because he was concerned that many Pheu Thai politicians have been accused of insulting the monarchy.

"There could be many factors [for Chavalit's resignation] and I don't think it has anything to do with me," said Jatuporn, who is a key red-shirt leader.

So Jatuporn proffers that all the press releases are wrong, but doesn't offer any other specific possibility as to why the Party Chairman might have resigned just 2 months out from an election.

AKA...

I don't know why he did it, I just know it wasn't because of me.

p.s. rubl, did you catch the PTP estimate dropped another five from yesterday?

.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Buchholz

[SomTumTiger]

This year, PTP estimated that 1,000,000 people would rally to their (reds) cause. The real number was about 75-100,000. Using that ratio, we can expect PTP to get 26 seats (not 260) in the next election.

[rubl]

This year, PTP estimated that 1,000,000 people would rally to their (reds) cause. The real number was about 75-100,000. Using that ratio, we can expect PTP to get 26 seats (not 260) in the next election.

Totally incorrect. The UDD estimated 1,000,000 would rally. nothing to do with the PTP. Even our esteemed PTP MP and UDD leader k. Jatuporn said

" "The Pheu Thai Party would campaign for votes in the upcoming general election while the red-shirt movement would focus on calling for justice and democracy, he said.

"The party and the movement are two separate entities that have no overriding power over one another," "

( http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/04/20/national/DSI-adds-sedition-to-charges-against-reds-30153488.html )

[Ricardo]

Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Prom-phan yesterday rejected speculation that Chavalit had left the party because he was concerned that many Pheu Thai politicians have been accused of insulting the monarchy.

"There could be many factors [for Chavalit's resignation] and I don't think it has anything to do with me," said Jatuporn, who is a key red-shirt leader.

So Jatuporn proffers that all the press releases are wrong, but doesn't offer any other specific possibility as to why the Party Chairman might have resigned just 2 months out from an election.

AKA...

I don't know why he did it, I just know it wasn't because of me.

p.s. rubl, did you catch the PTP estimate dropped another five from yesterday?

.

Personally I'm just waiting for Jatuporn to announce, that PTP will get more-than 500 seats, as a minimum !

But Suthep's estimate of 200-ish, but needing to form a coalition to govern, looks much more realistic than anything I've seen from any PTP/Red-Shirt politicians, so far. Perhaps they fear a reduction in the flow-of-offshore-funds, if they fail to forcast outright-victory ?

[anterian]

polls are like the percentages of ingredients on food boxes, they never add up correctly because one ingredient is never listed, the water content. The same with political polls the one ingredient omitted is the floating voter or non voter.

[pisico]

He who owns the chicken owns the eggs.

[drdoom6996]

<br>I don't like the Democrats to get 99% of all votes in the South as k. Suthep predicts. Neither would I like PTP to get 99% of votes in North / North-East. It would show a possible conflict. I hope at least 30 - 40% of votes gets to smaller parties, much more healthy for a democracy.<br><br>On a lighter tone, with the guestimates of PTP, Democrats and BJT already between 531 and 548 seats out of a total of <b>500</b> are covered  <img src="http://static.thaivisa.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif" class="bbc_emoticon" alt=""><br>

<br><br>You see this discrepancy due to lies that politicians make and the money they pay out.  None can afford to pay everywhere.  Clean up the corruption in the election.  Allow somebody to come in and see the election from outside of Thailand so it can not be marked as a sham.  It does not have to be Westerners, we are not trustworthy like all Thai taxi drivers and politicians. <br>

[tragickingdom]

Suthep is right, just like last time. The corrupted courts will be used to put away the opposition. Laws are tailored to get rid of the opposition being it lese majesty or computer crime laws. What Suthep does not know is that he will end up like Mubarak or worse like former communist leaders who were executed after trial of a few minutes. It is a typical case of som nam naa and well deserved.

[Throatwobbler]

Suthep is right, just like last time. The corrupted courts will be used to put away the opposition. Laws are tailored to get rid of the opposition being it lese majesty or computer crime laws. What Suthep does not know is that he will end up like Mubarak or worse like former communist leaders who were executed after trial of a few minutes. It is a typical case of som nam naa and well deserved.

You're quite melodramatic aren't you?

[animatic]

Suthep is right, just like last time. The corrupted courts will be used to put away the opposition. Laws are tailored to get rid of the opposition being it lese majesty or computer crime laws. What Suthep does not know is that he will end up like Mubarak or worse like former communist leaders who were executed after trial of a few minutes. It is a typical case of som nam naa and well deserved.

You're quite melodramatic aren't you?

Yes. Appears so.

Of course the 'opposition' has a history of walking right up to an existing law, laughing in it's face, breaking it, since it couldn't possibly be meant to include them, and then crying foul long and loud when they get nicked for it...

Are they un-repentant or clueless recidivists, or is the third string TRT really as, or more, stupid than it appeared PPP was?

One salient point is the Egyptians and the Tunisians do not have a megalomaniac, rich beyond Crocius, proto dictator financing their 'revolutions', waiting in the wings to super-impose a new elite in place of the old elite. If there is increased violence it will hardly benefit the common man in Thailand, they always fair worst in revolutions.

Edited April 20, 2011 by animatic

[Thai at Heart]

Suthep: Democrat Party will form the next govt

I was very curious to see what the continuation of this sentence would be:

"He says after leaving private dinner with Army Head, whilst leaving through the back exit of the camp."

Alas, nothing quite so interesting. What would you expect him to say?

Edited April 20, 2011 by Thai at Heart

[rubl]

Suthep: Democrat Party will form the next govt

I was very curious to see what the continuation of this sentence would be:

"He says after leaving private dinner with Army Head, whilst leaving through the back exit of the camp."

Alas, nothing quite so interesting. What would you expect him to say?

Well, since you ask ...

I would have expected a continuation like "the Democrats party will definitively be the single largest party and with the PTP in total disarray, will be called upon and have no choice but to form a new government."

All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds