Thailand Pulls Out Of Planned Ceasefire Talks With Cambodia

[kuffki]

there is no secret here who controls whom. government the army or other way around.

I think this matter is rather army doing then the government

Keep in mind such war gets Thai army bigger budget, more and new toys

[rubl]

I am constantly puzzled by the assumption of most writers that in an all out war Thailand would win. I disagree, any all out war would rapidly evolve into a war of attrition, of multiple clashes in jungle and mountain terrain. As the Americans found out in Vietnam and Korea, technologically advanced weapons cannot defeat agile and motivated foot soldiers. Thailand might be able to destroy towns and cities, but they would not be able to occupy territory, particularly with home grown enemies in the south, the northeast, plus the thousands of resident Cambodians in their country.

Even worse Myanmar might decide to expand while the RTA was preoccupied.

You may be right. Mind you, I'm more puzzled by the assumption of some writers that this skirmish will escalate into an all-out war. Seems very unlikely.

[kuffki]

I am constantly puzzled by the assumption of most writers that in an all out war Thailand would win. I disagree, any all out war would rapidly evolve into a war of attrition, of multiple clashes in jungle and mountain terrain. As the Americans found out in Vietnam and Korea, technologically advanced weapons cannot defeat agile and motivated foot soldiers. Thailand might be able to destroy towns and cities, but they would not be able to occupy territory, particularly with home grown enemies in the south, the northeast, plus the thousands of resident Cambodians in their country.

Even worse Myanmar might decide to expand while the RTA was preoccupied.

i think you misread, many posters think otherwise. Thailand will not be a winner in any aspect. and worst of all, when it comes to "face"

so far Thailand is a big, bad bully in the eyes of the world, who not only attacking but also refusing to negotiate, allow foreign moderation or observers and refuses to cease fire.

What ever the truth is, Cambodia so far sure knows better how to play the game and is coming out as a winner already in that respect.

[webfact]

Thai PM denies Thailand pulls out of planned ceasefire talks with Cambodia; says Thai defence minister going to China, rescheduling Cambodia trip later /MCOT

[hammered]

I am constantly puzzled by the assumption of most writers that in an all out war Thailand would win. I disagree, any all out war would rapidly evolve into a war of attrition, of multiple clashes in jungle and mountain terrain. As the Americans found out in Vietnam and Korea, technologically advanced weapons cannot defeat agile and motivated foot soldiers. Thailand might be able to destroy towns and cities, but they would not be able to occupy territory, particularly with home grown enemies in the south, the northeast, plus the thousands of resident Cambodians in their country.

Even worse Myanmar might decide to expand while the RTA was preoccupied.

You may be right. Mind you, I'm more puzzled by the assumption of some writers that this skirmish will escalate into an all-out war. Seems very unlikely.

Right now or at least up until now it serves both sides well. Hun Sen has succesfully had the opposition leader's jail term extended and broken up a demo. He probably wouldnt mind it ending soon now he doesnt need the distraction any more. In Thailand it is a little more complicated as the PM wants to call an election soon while some of the government in other parties and possibly part of the establishment dont want that and to date the election is still likely to be called by the PM so reasons for not may still be needed.

[Just1Voice]

I am constantly puzzled by the assumption of most writers that in an all out war Thailand would win. I disagree, any all out war would rapidly evolve into a war of attrition, of multiple clashes in jungle and mountain terrain. As the Americans found out in Vietnam and Korea, technologically advanced weapons cannot defeat agile and motivated foot soldiers. Thailand might be able to destroy towns and cities, but they would not be able to occupy territory, particularly with home grown enemies in the south, the northeast, plus the thousands of resident Cambodians in their country.

Even worse Myanmar might decide to expand while the RTA was preoccupied.

Ahh, someone who also sees things as I do. But let's also add to this scenario that Cambodia would use "terrorists tactics" in cities such as BKK, Chiang Mai, Pattaya, Phuket, with car bombs and other types of explosives to turn those cities, and others, into communities where terror reins. No one would be immune or safe. These are tactics that Cambodia is well versed in, and wouldn't hesitate to use. And for those who say the Thai army would be able to stop this from happening, just look down south and see how "successful" the vaunted Thai Army has been.

[Thai-Aust]

Cambodia has accused Thailand of using spy planes and poisonous gas ....

I believe most people who expressed their views here are more poisonous than the gas the Cambodia accused.

[webfact]

Defense Minister Flies to China

Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan has left for a day trip to China. Reports indicate he is on a mission to explain to China Thailand's stance towards Cambodia and that Thailand did not initiate the fighting. He says he will meet with his Cambodian counterparts at another time. Prawit was earlier scheduled to hold talks with Cambodia today.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-27

[scottc]

I would have to say this border dispute is premeditated, pre-planned event for election purposes. They can stop the fighting if they choose to, but they are actually trying to start a war with cambodia, especially not allowing mediators in. Any war now, would obviously postpone elections, keeping the current people in power. Cambodia does not want a war, but of course will defend themselves.

They have the ability to defend themselves despite thailand's military capability, and the war would be a jungle vietnam war lasting years, not an iraq war. I"ve lived in camdbodia for 2 months and the people there are younger, as most of the population has already died from previous wars. They are all peaceful people learning from their history, not to repeat it.

Edited April 27, 2011 by scottc

[kuffki]

Defense Minister Flies to China

Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan has left for a day trip to China. Reports indicate he is on a mission to explain to China Thailand's stance towards Cambodia and that Thailand did not initiate the fighting. He says he will meet with his Cambodian counterparts at another time. Prawit was earlier scheduled to hold talks with Cambodia today.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-27

Even better, meet with Cambodia at another time, so in the mean time, people can continue to be killed. Good to see they have their priority's in place.

[dumball]

Thai PM denies Thailand pulls out of planned ceasefire talks with Cambodia; says Thai defence minister going to China, rescheduling Cambodia trip later /MCOT

So , whilst the citizens of Thailand are suffering extreme deprivation caused by this latest skirmish , the foreign minister decides it is far more important to visit China than try to hastily resolve the anguish of these citizens , is this perhaps because the army seems not to want a cease fire at this time ? Does he fear the army would over-ride anything he may accomplish by entering into dialogue with the apposing army because it does not suit their current agenda ?

WOW , what a huge loss of FACE that could cause for him , pity the poor citizens of Thailand with a government such as this .

Edited April 27, 2011 by webfact
quote fixed /all caps sentence changed /Admin

[dumpling]

Face is more important than lives? I'm shocked

Really I see it everyday!!

[random]

I remember a comment last year by Suthep, before he allowed the army to go on their murderous rampage through bangkok, it was an issue being discussed between the govt and the reds, and the comment was along the lines of 'the matter is resolved and nobody has lost face'. This is the deputy pm and his aim during a negotiation was not about what was right or wrong for the people, it was simply about not losing face, it seems the first thought in anything here is how to not lose face.

Nice post, but for the totally uncalled for 'allowed the army to go on their murderous rampage through bangkok'. You've been reading too many of Robert A.'s reports methinks.

I came to this conclusion myself as i was living here at the time and saw what was happening, I don't need to be spoon fed information by people with agendas, from either side. If someone says it is raining, I will check for myself and draw my own conclusions based on the evidence.

That said if you have any proof that Amsterdam is wrong then feel free to share it, I am sure his words are full of facts AND hyperbole.

[Thai-Aust]

Anyone who has a true beleive that Cambodia is willing to stop the dispute, should at least before posting here do some research about history of Thai-Cambodia relations, only go back 200 years or so, not much. But for those who just want to say bad things about Thailand for whatever reasons, well, no one can stop them. But if they are living in Thailand, please be mindful that they should be grateful that they have this land to live, sleep, and enjoy. If you have bad attitude toward the country you live in, why stay?

[webfact]

Foreign Ministry invites foreign ambassadors for briefing on conflict with Cambodia /TAN_Network

[FOODLOVER]

Thai PM denies Thailand pulls out of planned ceasefire talks with Cambodia; says Thai defence minister going to China, rescheduling Cambodia trip later /MCOT

So , whilst the citizens of Thailand are suffering extreme deprivation caused by this latest skirmish , the foreign minister decides it is far more important to visit China than try to hastily resolve the anguish of these citizens , is this perhaps because the army seems not to want a cease fire at this time ? Does he fear the army would over-ride anything he may accomplish by entering into dialogue with the apposing army because it does not suit their current agenda ?

WOW , what a huge loss of FACE that could cause for him , pity the poor citizens of Thailand with a government such as this .

I heard from a friend of a friend who heard it from someone that he was called away to China to explain Thailand's position.

[webfact]

Thai FM invites US envoy to Thailand for briefing on Thai-Cambodian border clashes,affirms no Thailand invasion on neighbour /MCOT

[OzMick]

I know it suits Hun Sen, to have an external-enemy to distract his people, but he might keep it believable at-least !

It also suits the current Thai government to let this conflict go to postpone elections or house dissolution or whatever.

If you read all of the article, you would have got to "Abhisit said on Tuesday that the clashes would not derail his poll plan." Then again, the plan might be................

[DP25]

I would have to say this border dispute is premeditated, pre-planned event for election purposes.

It is preplanned and premeditated, but not for Thai elections purposes. The purpose of Cambodia initiating this conflict is two fold. The first is to gain military credibility for Hun Sen's son, who was recently promoted to 2 star general and placed in command of Cambodian forces on the northern border where they are currently fighting Thais. The Prime Minister's son is in direct command of Cambodian forces there. He's very young and a victory over the Thais will sooth any rumblings over his promotion, and help give him the credibility he needs to succeed his father as ruler of Cambodia, as well as putting him in a position to remove any military threats to his father's rule.

The second reason is to divert attention from recent protests in Phnom Phen that were violently broken up the Cambodian government. Thousands of families in Phnom Phen are being forcibly evicted from their homes to make way for luxury property developments. They came out on the streets to protest, and the Cambodia government violently sent them scurrying home. The military clash with Thailand was initiated by Cambodia in order to divert attention away from the ruling party's eviction schemes and subsequent protests and crackdown.

I"ve lived in camdbodia for 2 months and the people there are younger, as most of the population has already died from previous wars. They are all peaceful people learning from their history, not to repeat it.

Agree that most people in Cambodia only want peace. But their leader was a member of the Khmer Rouge and clearly doesn't give a rat's ass about any of them, and he's been in charge for 25 years and will be until his death.

[ChristopherBrown]

I know it suits Hun Sen, to have an external-enemy to distract his people, but he might keep it believable at-least !

I keep hearing comments like this in the Thai media, but frankly distract the Cambodian people from what exactly? The longest period of stability the country has know in 45 years? The rapid economic growth? The huge infrastructure improvements? The increased literacy rates? The hugely reduced child mortality rates? The fact Cambodia has gone from food shortages to the worlds sixth largest rice exporter in a little over a decade? Or the HIV rate going from being an epidemic in the 90's to a rate that is now less than half the rate of Thailand (0.5 vs 1.3).

For most Cambodians this is the best they have EVER known it. Hun Sen is an authoritarian leader, no doubt about it. He's a populist, we all know that. He's not scared to break a few eggs to make and omelet, it's true. BUT despite his tactics that aren't to everyone's tastes, the proof is in the pudding and all of the numbers have consistently gone skyward for over a decade. The CPP won 58% of the vote in 2008, their nearest rival took only 22% in an election that was declared free and fair, as was the previous one. Currently he's as politically strong as he's ever been and there is no doubt the CPP will win another landslide in the next election. There is absolutely no need for Hun Sen and the CPP to create some kind of drama to increase popularity, because they already have an extremely strong mandate and will likely have an even stronger one after the next election.

This is about the temples and the temples only on the Cambodian side, they are central to the national identity and you will be hard pushed to find a Cambodian who's not willing to go to war to protect them and their sovereignty. Thailand needs to tread extremely carefully as the pages of history are filled with larger, stronger aggressors that lack true belief in their cause being turned over by much smaller, poorly equipped opponents who are truly willing to die for theirs.

[Screws]

Agree that most people in Cambodia only want peace. But their leader was a member of the Khmer Rouge and clearly doesn't give a rat's ass about any of them, and he's been in charge for 25 years and will be until his death.

Maybe he needs a 'Mubarak Moment' - actually a few around these parts would not go astray.

[arrowsdawdle]

Does Thailand even have spy-planes, as alleged by Cambodia, I thought the blimp was it ? And poison-gas, nah, just someone frying-up some pork-with-garlic for the troops' dinner !

[Screws]

I remember a comment last year by Suthep, before he allowed the army to go on their murderous rampage through bangkok, it was an issue being discussed between the govt and the reds, and the comment was along the lines of 'the matter is resolved and nobody has lost face'. This is the deputy pm and his aim during a negotiation was not about what was right or wrong for the people, it was simply about not losing face, it seems the first thought in anything here is how to not lose face.

Did he preface it with 'We Thainese ............'

[Crushdepth]

Maybe Hun Sen is taking advantage of the situation to try and destabilise Thailand ahead of the election (ie. make the Democrats look bad). Then his buddy Thaksin can come in and smoooooth things over.

[webfact]

Related topic

Thai Foreign Ministry Explains Border Clashes to America, China, and Vietnam

Follow this link:

[arrowsdawdle]

Does Thailand even have spy-planes, as alleged by Cambodia, I thought the blimp was it ? And poison-gas, nah, just someone frying-up some pork-with-garlic for the troops' dinner !

[OzMick]

I would have to say this border dispute is premeditated, pre-planned event for election purposes. They can stop the fighting if they choose to, but they are actually trying to start a war with cambodia, especially not allowing mediators in. Any war now, would obviously postpone elections, keeping the current people in power. Cambodia does not want a war, but of course will defend themselves.

They have the ability to defend themselves despite thailand's military capability, and the war would be a jungle vietnam war lasting years, not an iraq war. I"ve lived in camdbodia for 2 months and the people there are younger, as most of the population has already died from previous wars. They are all peaceful people learning from their history, not to repeat it.

I'm sorry to have to inform you that what decimated the population of Cambodia was not in any sense a war, but a genocide inflicted by their own countrymen. The peaceful people might not want a war, but their current leader was firmly in the camp of the Khmer Rouge at that time. IMHO he couldn't give a rat's anus for the opinion of the population if war suits his own ends.

As for the much vaunted experience of the Cambodian army, their last war was in 1978 (33 years ago for the mathematically challenged) and lasted all of 2 weeks, followed by 10 years hiding in the jungle and occasionally murdering a tourist or two. Yet amazingly, they all seem to have a chestful of medals - I believe the yellow one with the red stripes is for the Great Sihanoukville Gonorrhoea Epidemic...........

[jimbeam1]

it is beyond my understanding that posters are able to post smilies as reply (OP) to one of the most serious issues Thailand has ever faced in the last 30ys. I am deeply concerned and so are thousands along the border. A war with Cambodia will affect us all, even the members who think it's something very funny.... It is not - it is dead serious.

You not here about what's going on in the South?

jb1

[DP25]

The CPP won 58% of the vote in 2008, their nearest rival took only 22%

That 22% would be the Sam Rainsy Party. The same Sam Rainsy who has been forced to flee Cambodia due to defamation charges against Hun Sen in the past, and who is now currently living in Australia. And let's look at the charge he is currently forced to live abroad over. He led a large protest along the Vietnamese border over land encroachment by the Vietnamese government. Seems that would be something Hun Sen would approve of, being the fierce protector of Cambodian sovereignty that he is? Of course Hun Sen is very close to the Vietnamese, so nothing must be said about Vietnam taking over Cambodian territory. Sam Rainsy was charged with racial incitement and destruction of property, and forced to flee the country to avoid a prison sentence. The only major opposition figure faces 14 years in prison should he ever return. I think Hun Sen is more than a little concerned about opposition figures, he's said he will rule Cambodia until he dies, and he means it.

Edited April 27, 2011 by DP25

[arrowsdawdle]

Does Thailand even have spy-planes, as alleged by Cambodia, I thought the blimp was it ? And poison-gas, nah, just someone frying-up some pork-with-garlic for the troops' dinner !