Post-Election Possibilities Do Not Bode Well For Thailand Stability

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

Post election scenarios do not bode well for stability

By The Nation

Perhaps the best we can hope for after the next poll is that hatred subsides and a sense of normalcy slowly returns

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has sent out a not-so-subtle message on post-election possibilities. The new House of Representatives, he said during his last weekly TV address in his position as the chief executive, will pick the country's new leader. Although he was talking principles here - Thailand's political system does not prescribe direct election of the prime minister - his political rivals must be receiving it grudgingly anyway.

Abhisit was keeping his options open, in anticipation of a Pheu Thai Party victory in the general election that he has called.

The prime minister was effectively telling Pheu Thai that even if it wins the election, the fight for state power is not going to end there. It's not which party wins the most seats that will decide who will be the next prime minister, he said, but which party can gather majority support in the new House of Representatives.

When it comes to forming a coalition, Abhisit, as the incumbent, may hold a slight advantage over Pheu Thai. The opposition party, to be "safe", needs to win enough seats to form a single-party government. Anything less and we can expect further political tumult in the wake of the election result, with nasty horse-trading and behind-the-scenes manoeuvring. In other words, nothing bodes well for our fragile political scene.

The country is in danger of going backwards. Just how far backwards will depend on which side grabs power. Another Abhisit coalition government would further galvanise the red-shirt movement, which at the start of his term attacked his "legitimacy" but has since built up fresh resentment after last year's bloodbath.

A Pheu Thai government, on the other hand, must resist the urge to repeat the grave mistake made by the Samak Sundaravej government when it came to power.

The late Samak enjoyed a very brief term as prime minister. It all crumbled when his government suggested that the election mandate would be used as a platform to politically reinvigorate fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and bring him home from self-imposed exile. Government House was seized and occupied for months. Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport was taken over by the yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy. The judiciary was decried by one side of a divided Thailand when Samak himself was banned from politics and the People Power Party was dissolved.

It seems that Thais will have just two political scenarios to contend with after the upcoming poll - continued red-shirt agitation in the event of Abhisit's return to power, or Samak-style political turbulence in the case of Pheu Thai's resurgence.

We also have best-case - but far less likely - scenarios, one featuring a Pheu Thai government that leaves Thaksin alone and works just for Thailand, and another in which the Democrats win by a margin big enough to silence the red shirts and form a stable coalition.

This House dissolution brings the curtain down on a parliamentary term of unprecedented turmoil. The year 2008 saw the yellow shirts' uprising against the pro-Thaksin camp, a year that ended with Abhisit's controversial rise to power after Government House was occupied and the international airport paralysed. Thaksin's supporters hit back in 2009, but the infamous Pattaya riots, angry mobs at the Interior Ministry, and the blockade of the Victory Monument were to be outdone by the same movement the following year. Last year redefined the "Land of Smiles" on the world map and left a gaping wound that is still far from healed.

Everyone is rolling up their sleeves after the House dissolution, but each agenda - whether it's to bring Thaksin home or keep him out - is likely to take the country back to Square One. Even the yellow shirts' "Vote No" campaign will only confirm the impasse, not solve it.

The best Thais can hope for is that the country will have somewhat outgrown its deep divisions when the next government comes to power. In other words, if hatred can subside, we can start hoping the rest will take care of itself.

-- The Nation 2011-05-05

[Fremann85]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

[whybother]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

How do you come to that conclusion from this article?

It is very unlikely that the PTP will get a majority of seats. They would need to considerably improve on the previous election, and that's after losing about 50 MPs to defections and after losing many by-elections.

The only way the PTP can be considered to have won the election is if they get into government. If they get the most seats but not a majority, and they can't put together a coalition, then they won't have won.

The only way that the PTP can form a coalition is if a couple of the current coalition partners change sides.

[virtualtraveller]

The key message here, which every voter needs to understand, particularly the less educated and informed, is that unless a party wins more than 50% of the house (ie a combination of constituencies and party list representation) then their leader does not automatically qualify for the premiership. Simple.

It is likely that no party will win more than 40% of the house this time around, in which case we will certainly have a coalition government which depends on the preferences of the smaller parties. Whom they choose to back is entirely up to them. Regardless of who finished with the most votes, most party list, most constituencies, most money, most acceptable ideology and plan for governing, it will ultimately be their prerogative. It is entirely democratic and has been practised for more than a century in many elections including recent Thai ones.

Usually they go where the money is, they might also go where there's going to be the least trouble and compromise - that's something that many should think carefully about.

[rreddin]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

Interesting that the article fails to mention one possible scenario, that is the election of a government not to the liking of the military. The omission is even more interesting as in another thread on this forum, the same journal says they are monitoring the statements of the head of the army on a daily basis - a peron they desrcibe as "having coup making experience".

'The Nation' has previously warned that yet another coup would not be good for the country. It is strange, that in the context of an article headlined "Post-Election Possibilities Do Not Bode Well for Thailand Stability",they passed up this opportunity to remind everyone why that is. Perchance they have changed their view on this.

[KKvampire]

Whatever happens we know that there will be instability after an election , which in most countries would not be true. Those not happy with result will react , Fact is the burning, shooting , fighting last year was only the beginning. In my Opinion

[hammered]

One school of thought goes that the estblishment want PTP in the government in a fragmented form or one where coalition partners have a lot of control. This would mean that the reds could not take to the streets and that also Thaksin would not be able to deliver the votes to unfetter himself. It may though miss the fact that previously the UDD basically threatened the EC and their families to get what they wanted and the same could be done against the coalition partners.

There are probably no stability enhancing options short of a PTP-Dem national government which is likely not even a starter, so expect turmoil.

[khaowong1]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

Interesting that the article fails to mention one possible scenario, that is the election of a government not to the liking of the military. The omission is even more interesting as in another thread on this forum, the same journal says they are monitoring the statements of the head of the army on a daily basis - a peron they desrcibe as "having coup making experience".

'The Nation' has previously warned that yet another coup would not be good for the country. It is strange, that in the context of an article headlined "Post-Election Possibilities Do Not Bode Well for Thailand Stability",they passed up this opportunity to remind everyone why that is. Perchance they have changed their view on this.

Yes, when your talking Thai politics, you can never exclude the military.

[whybother]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

Interesting that the article fails to mention one possible scenario, that is the election of a government not to the liking of the military. The omission is even more interesting as in another thread on this forum, the same journal says they are monitoring the statements of the head of the army on a daily basis - a peron they desrcibe as "having coup making experience".

'The Nation' has previously warned that yet another coup would not be good for the country. It is strange, that in the context of an article headlined "Post-Election Possibilities Do Not Bode Well for Thailand Stability",they passed up this opportunity to remind everyone why that is. Perchance they have changed their view on this.

Yes, when your talking Thai politics, you can never exclude the military.

I would think that the military won't step in if PTP get into government, but they will step in when the PTP start screwing with things to whitewash Thaksin's crimes.

[somo]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

Interesting that the article fails to mention one possible scenario, that is the election of a government not to the liking of the military. The omission is even more interesting as in another thread on this forum, the same journal says they are monitoring the statements of the head of the army on a daily basis - a peron they desrcibe as "having coup making experience".

'The Nation' has previously warned that yet another coup would not be good for the country. It is strange, that in the context of an article headlined "Post-Election Possibilities Do Not Bode Well for Thailand Stability",they passed up this opportunity to remind everyone why that is. Perchance they have changed their view on this.

Yes, when your talking Thai politics, you can never exclude the military.

Correct.

If the army don't like the result they will change it one way or another.

The Democrats have nothing to fear by calling an election.

If they win it they can rightfully claim to be the peoples choice.

If they lose it the army will put them back in power within 6 months.

[tragickingdom]

Is there really anyone out there who believes that elections are held? The army will prevent that from happening, even if they have to invade another country. The PM must have the wrong figures by the way. Thai polls are conducted in maximum 15 provinces, that is why there are always so much surprises. Abhisit and his rich friends do not really like to put their boots in the dirt to check what the makjority of Thai people wants. It is absolutely not Abhisit or Prayuth.

[whybother]

Is there really anyone out there who believes that elections are held? The army will prevent that from happening, even if they have to invade another country. The PM must have the wrong figures by the way. Thai polls are conducted in maximum 15 provinces, that is why there are always so much surprises. Abhisit and his rich friends do not really like to put their boots in the dirt to check what the makjority of Thai people wants. It is absolutely not Abhisit or Prayuth.

We will see in about 2 months whether elections will be held or not. Until then, you can continue to speculate.

[rubl]

Is there really anyone out there who believes that elections are held? The army will prevent that from happening, even if they have to invade another country. The PM must have the wrong figures by the way. Thai polls are conducted in maximum 15 provinces, that is why there are always so much surprises. Abhisit and his rich friends do not really like to put their boots in the dirt to check what the makjority of Thai people wants. It is absolutely not Abhisit or Prayuth.

Now that you ask, at least one, me Mind you I've been wrong before, like in June 1997 as far as I remember.

If there are no elections before the begin of August 2011 (assuming a House dissolution this month) I'm willing to apologize of course

Edited May 5, 2011 by rubl

[asiawatcher]

The elections will be the farce it always is and then when the losers lose, the strife will start all over so what a waste of taxpayers money - bring back the army and wash aways all the corrupt nefarious politicians.

[gregb]

after reding this article i can say that it is very provably that PTP is going to win the elections.

Interesting that the article fails to mention one possible scenario, that is the election of a government not to the liking of the military. The omission is even more interesting as in another thread on this forum, the same journal says they are monitoring the statements of the head of the army on a daily basis - a peron they desrcibe as "having coup making experience".

'The Nation' has previously warned that yet another coup would not be good for the country. It is strange, that in the context of an article headlined "Post-Election Possibilities Do Not Bode Well for Thailand Stability",they passed up this opportunity to remind everyone why that is. Perchance they have changed their view on this.

Yes, when your talking Thai politics, you can never exclude the military.

I would think that the military won't step in if PTP get into government, but they will step in when the PTP start screwing with things to whitewash Thaksin's crimes.

I agree. I think the military can easily work with either side. Not like one is any less corrupt than the other. The problem comes strictly down to Thaksin. That is when they know people will take to the streets and civil war becomes likely. The people who have been grievously harmed by Thaksin will not accept him being absolved of his crimes. There will be bloodshed in that instance, and everyone knows it. The military will rightfully act first to prevent that. There has been enough bloodshed.

Short of that, they will leave it up to the courts to decide how best to deal with any issues that come up.

[anterian]

I can't make up my mind, perhaps someone can help me out. Is the army the militant branch of the Democrats, or are the Democrats the political voice of the army. :jap:

[rubl]

I can't make up my mind, perhaps someone can help me out. Is the army the militant branch of the Democrats, or are the Democrats the political voice of the army. :jap:

I like simple questions, this one is easy: 'none of the above'.

Next

[anterian]

I can't make up my mind, perhaps someone can help me out. Is the army the militant branch of the Democrats, or are the Democrats the political voice of the army. :jap:

I like simple questions, this one is easy: 'none of the above'.

Next

Another simple question for you then. Who in theory controls the army, and who actually controls the army?

[rubl]

I can't make up my mind, perhaps someone can help me out. Is the army the militant branch of the Democrats, or are the Democrats the political voice of the army. :jap:

I like simple questions, this one is easy: 'none of the above'.

Next

Another simple question for you then. Who in theory controls the army, and who actually controls the army?

I said I like 'simple' questions', no mention of the more difficult ones.

In general the theory tends to differ from the practice, in Thailand and in other countries. Mostly the answer is somewhere in the middle.

In Thailand the Royal Thai Forces are under the control of the government which in it's turn is lead by the PM and cabinet and watched by parliament. Only in the case of a coup this seems not the case, even when a lot agree with the coup. In countries like Thailand, the USA and a few others the military seem to have more 'say' in matters than would be acceptable in other countries. In some countries the military are in control.

Now a simple question to you: what are you trying to suggest with your questions

Edited May 6, 2011 by rubl

[anterian]

rubi, it was not a trick question. I am aware of the formal control structure in the Thai armed forces, but equally, as you pointed out, with frequent coups this formal structure would seem to be in name only.

Military academy graduates are required to take an oath to protect and defend the nation, religion and monarchy. Whether this oath is in order of precedence I am not sure. But what is clearly missing is any defense of the constitution and government.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/01/20/opinion/We-must-respect-the-Constitution-as-a-duty-30146738.html

It is clear from this that the army is under no obligation to obey any government instructions, it basically has a free hand to interfere as and when it likes as long as it

protects and defends the nation, religion and monarchy. Further, it is the army that decides if, when and how to defend these institutions.

As long as this situation exists the army will always be a loose cannon in Thai politics.

[Thai at Heart]

I am very sure that the Army will make sure that the country is stable in exactly the form that they want it to be.

All it will take is a meeting or two in a hotel and a few Samsonites filled with wonga to make sure that it goes exactly as they want it to. There is no way PTP will be allowed to head singluarly, or put up a coalition to run the country.

Ain't going to happen

[whybother]

I am very sure that the Army will make sure that the country is stable in exactly the form that they want it to be.

All it will take is a meeting or two in a hotel and a few Samsonites filled with wonga to make sure that it goes exactly as they want it to. There is no way PTP will be allowed to head singluarly, or put up a coalition to run the country.

Ain't going to happen

With the PTP's main aim to bring Thaksin back and allow him to avoid going to jail, I would tend to agree with you.

[Thai at Heart]

I am very sure that the Army will make sure that the country is stable in exactly the form that they want it to be.

All it will take is a meeting or two in a hotel and a few Samsonites filled with wonga to make sure that it goes exactly as they want it to. There is no way PTP will be allowed to head singluarly, or put up a coalition to run the country.

Ain't going to happen

With the PTP's main aim to bring Thaksin back and allow him to avoid going to jail, I would tend to agree with you.

Absolutely.

[gregb]

It is clear from this that the army is under no obligation to obey any government instructions, it basically has a free hand to interfere as and when it likes as long as it

protects and defends the nation, religion and monarchy. Further, it is the army that decides if, when and how to defend these institutions.

As long as this situation exists the army will always be a loose cannon in Thai politics.

Or a stabilizing force, depending on your perspective.

However, it is good to see we all agree. The military will only intervene to stop Thaksin being absolved of his crimes. They are not anti democracy, they will work with whatever side can buy the most votes from the people. But they can't allow this one man to evade justice for his crimes. He has injured too many innocent people, and any attempt to allow him to return without facing harsh punishment would mean a bloody civil war. I think everyone would agree that preventing that is in the best interests of the nation.

[Thai at Heart]

It is clear from this that the army is under no obligation to obey any government instructions, it basically has a free hand to interfere as and when it likes as long as it

protects and defends the nation, religion and monarchy. Further, it is the army that decides if, when and how to defend these institutions.

As long as this situation exists the army will always be a loose cannon in Thai politics.

Or a stabilizing force, depending on your perspective.

However, it is good to see we all agree. The military will only intervene to stop Thaksin being absolved of his crimes. They are not anti democracy, they will work with whatever side can buy the most votes from the people. But they can't allow this one man to evade justice for his crimes. He has injured too many innocent people, and any attempt to allow him to return without facing harsh punishment would mean a bloody civil war. I think everyone would agree that preventing that is in the best interests of the nation.

Thaksin aside, to label an organisation with 18 coups to its name as "not anti-democracy" is a bit of a stretch.

In my opinion, the straw that broke the camels back to spark the last coup was Thaksin's meddling with the head of the army down South, and his continual tightening of the army budget, and his messing with the succession plans for postions in the army. The army is only too willing to work with any politician as long as they don't mess with their budgets and don't mess with their succession planning. The army in Thailand is a law unto itself, it does not answer to politicians. They are pro-themselves before ever being pro-democracy, pro-country or pro-the people. They are the antithesis of "pro-democracy".

On the basis that should Thaksin ever get back into the country, the payback towards the people who held the coup would be doled out in big wedges, they will never allow even a sniff of a chance for him to get back in. This includes I believe even allowing PTP to be in power at all. The amount of time and effort that was devoted to clearing the way for the Dems to win the last election, only for them to fail absolutely dismally meant that a very hotch potch plan B had to be created. Plan A is well and truly set in place already I am sure.

There won't be any need for closed meetings without mobile phones this time. The small parties will be nailed firmly to the Dems mast, (with certain Swiss backed benefits) and unless the PTP can pull off a single complete majority (snowballs and hell come to mind), we will have a Democrat lead coalition. This isn't to say that I want to see Thaksin back in the country either. He is a very dangerous man for the future of the country. However, to believe that the elections coming up haven't been carefully managed to get the result that some want is extremely naive.

Edited May 7, 2011 by Thai at Heart

[Babcock]

I can't make up my mind, perhaps someone can help me out. Is the army the militant branch of the Democrats, or are the Democrats the political voice of the army. :jap:

Both effectively. Who is pulling whose strings is another matter.

The army likes to pursue a robust semi-independent foreign policy as we have been observing re: the temples.

However one remembers how this all started with Abhisit and the pad attacking the previous government demanding scrapping of international agreements made with the previous democrat government over sovereignty of the temple.

The Pad demonstrations outside pariament this year followed by the Pad representatives foray across the border and their subsequent arrest by cambodian troops.

The 40 minute youtube video posted of arrested democrat MP talking on his mobile to Abhisit from the cambodian side despite Abhisit's earlier denials.

The following thai troop deployments along the border.

The Cambodian call for international observers. The subsequent fighting.

Currently the thai demand for cambodian soldiers to leave the Preah temple which incidentally is on the cambodian side of the border!

Most thais probably 95% want peace.

The population along the border are 90% khmer.

Back in 1987 the army under Chavilit occupied a lao village on the disputed 1907 french border map. It eventually cost 1000 thai soldiers their lives and the thais were driven back over the border.

There's an election planned though there is now some doubt it will occur due to a possible event.

[whybother]

Both effectively. Who is pulling whose strings is another matter.

The army likes to pursue a robust semi-independent foreign policy as we have been observing re: the temples.

However one remembers how this all started with Abhisit and the pad attacking the previous government demanding scrapping of international agreements made with the previous democrat government over sovereignty of the temple.

The Pad demonstrations outside pariament this year followed by the Pad representatives foray across the border and their subsequent arrest by cambodian troops.

The 40 minute youtube video posted of arrested democrat MP talking on his mobile to Abhisit from the cambodian side despite Abhisit's earlier denials.

The following thai troop deployments along the border.

The Cambodian call for international observers. The subsequent fighting.

Currently the thai demand for cambodian soldiers to leave the Preah temple which incidentally is on the cambodian side of the border!

Most thais probably 95% want peace.

The population along the border are 90% khmer.

Back in 1987 the army under Chavilit occupied a lao village on the disputed 1907 french border map. It eventually cost 1000 thai soldiers their lives and the thais were driven back over the border.

There's an election planned though there is now some doubt it will occur due to a possible event.

Panich (the Democrat MP arrested) was talking to Abhisit's aide, not Abhisit.

The 2000 MOU signed by Cambodia and Thailand states that Cambodia shouldn't have any soldiers in the temple. Along with that, the Thais are demanding that the Cambodians leave disputed territory.

There have been lots of predictions about an election not being called, and an election not being held. So far, things are going as Abhisit planned, and the Abhisit and the army are saying that the border dispute will not effect whether an election is held or not.

I predict that an election will happen, but we'll have to wait about 8 weeks to see who's right.

[anterian]

I can't make up my mind, perhaps someone can help me out. Is the army the militant branch of the Democrats, or are the Democrats the political voice of the army. :jap:

Both effectively. Who is pulling whose strings is another matter.

The army likes to pursue a robust semi-independent foreign policy as we have been observing re: the temples.

However one remembers how this all started with Abhisit and the pad attacking the previous government demanding scrapping of international agreements made with the previous democrat government over sovereignty of the temple.

The Pad demonstrations outside pariament this year followed by the Pad representatives foray across the border and their subsequent arrest by cambodian troops.

The 40 minute youtube video posted of arrested democrat MP talking on his mobile to Abhisit from the cambodian side despite Abhisit's earlier denials.

The following thai troop deployments along the border.

The Cambodian call for international observers. The subsequent fighting.

Currently the thai demand for cambodian soldiers to leave the Preah temple which incidentally is on the cambodian side of the border!

Most thais probably 95% want peace.

The population along the border are 90% khmer.

Back in 1987 the army under Chavilit occupied a lao village on the disputed 1907 french border map. It eventually cost 1000 thai soldiers their lives and the thais were driven back over the border.

There's an election planned though there is now some doubt it will occur due to a possible event.

A good summary of events. I think a mention should have been made of the clash between the PAD and the local villagers.

i have noted that whilst most Thais seem to support the Thai position,, they quickly avoid the question when asked why Thailand refuse the Indonesian observers. If this situation persists until Cambodia takes the ASEAN chair it could destabilise the entire ASEAN structure. This I think would mainly benefit China, Interestingly most of the Thai politicians and generals are of Chinese origins. :jap:

[rubl]

A good summary of events. I think a mention should have been made of the clash between the PAD and the local villagers.

i have noted that whilst most Thais seem to support the Thai position,, they quickly avoid the question when asked why Thailand refuse the Indonesian observers. If this situation persists until Cambodia takes the ASEAN chair it could destabilise the entire ASEAN structure. This I think would mainly benefit China, Interestingly most of the Thai politicians and generals are of Chinese origins. :jap:

I don't think the clash between Surin villagers and the PAD should be mentioned again. But for those who want to know more maybe check this link for a previous discussion October 2010

[NanLaew]

Thaksin aside, to label an organisation with 18 coups to its name as "not anti-democracy" is a bit of a stretch.

In my opinion, the straw that broke the camels back to spark the last coup was Thaksin's meddling with the head of the army down South, and his continual tightening of the army budget, and his messing with the succession plans for postions in the army. The army is only too willing to work with any politician as long as they don't mess with their budgets and don't mess with their succession planning. The army in Thailand is a law unto itself, it does not answer to politicians. They are pro-themselves before ever being pro-democracy, pro-country or pro-the people. They are the antithesis of "pro-democracy".

On the basis that should Thaksin ever get back into the country, the payback towards the people who held the coup would be doled out in big wedges, they will never allow even a sniff of a chance for him to get back in. This includes I believe even allowing PTP to be in power at all. The amount of time and effort that was devoted to clearing the way for the Dems to win the last election, only for them to fail absolutely dismally meant that a very hotch potch plan B had to be created. Plan A is well and truly set in place already I am sure.

There won't be any need for closed meetings without mobile phones this time. The small parties will be nailed firmly to the Dems mast, (with certain Swiss backed benefits) and unless the PTP can pull off a single complete majority (snowballs and hell come to mind), we will have a Democrat lead coalition. This isn't to say that I want to see Thaksin back in the country either. He is a very dangerous man for the future of the country. However, to believe that the elections coming up haven't been carefully managed to get the result that some want is extremely naive.

Nailed it! Nice on TaH.

It only takes one party to join or leave a coalition to send the whole thing pear-shaped again. The political naivete of Thailand's chosen politicians will always make for predictable unpredictability. Witness the opposition recently calling the departing governments ramrodding through last-minute legislation as just another form of buying votes. This shows how totally unprepared any of them are to work in a government for the people. They see a sitting, elected government rushing through much needed and promised legislation as corrupt but I would guess the traditional handing out 500 baht notes to potential voters is still more desirable. Probably a lot easier too.