Bangkok Now A Key Battleground For The Election

[Lite Beer]

Bangkok now a key battleground for the election

EDITORIAL By The Nation

Democrats need to win the hearts of voters in the capital if they are to have any chance of remaining in power

Bangkok, always important to Thai politics, will be immensely so in the upcoming election. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva could never understate that fact when he said during the past week that poll results in the capital would hold the key to Thailand's future

For him, winning in the city would be a redemption if his Democrat Party loses to Pheu Thai in the provinces, which is an increasingly likely scenario. For Pheu Thai, recapturing Bangkok would go a long way to re-establishing itself as the real democratic force of the Kingdom.

Opinion polls conducted in the wake of the House dissolution and election candidacy registrations showed an alarming sign for the Democrats, who led in previous Bangkok surveys but have found themselves trailing by quite a shocking margin. One of the most significant details provided by those polls, however, had to do with the very large number of "undecided" voters, who in some surveys accounted for more than 50 per cent of those sampled. How these members of "the silent majority" will affect the election on July 3 is one of the biggest questions at the moment.

In the past, Bangkok always meant political insurance - or lack thereof - for ruling parties. Any government that consisted mainly of parties representing provincial constituents was often shaky and short-lived. Banharn Silapa-archa's and Chavalit Yongchaiyuth's administrations were most recent examples of that. The political dominance of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party in the early 2000s had a lot to do with the newly-launched political camp's high popularity in Bangkok. There is much truth in the saying that provincial voters form governments, only for Bangkokians to bring them down.

Thaksin's decline accompanied his estrangement from people in the capital. The election held one year after the 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin confirmed that. Although the People Power Party, the re-incarnation of dissolved TRT, won the election, the PPP lost to the Democrats in the city. There were many factors that undermined the PPP-led coalition in the year 2008, but lingering disenchantment of Bangkokians was one of them.

Can the Thaksin camp find its way back into the capital? Latest opinion polls suggest it is in a good position to do that. Bangkok re-domination will mean much to Pheu Thai, whose solid connections with the red shirts and unwavering support in the Northeast have earned them the image of a party for the grass roots. Its resurgence in the capital would give it another major boasting right, if the party can conquer both the rural areas and the city.

More importantly, perhaps, is what a Bangkok victory could do to the lingering memories of red-shirted turmoil last year. While the crackdown on the protesting red shirts has been a political thorn in the side of the Democrats, the arson and rioting have been hounding Pheu Thai, mocked by its rivals as "Phao Thai" (Burn Thai Party). Thaksin must want nothing more than absolution from the damaging images from last year's mayhem. A Pheu Thai triumph in Bangkok might not fulfil that wish in whole, but it would be a very strong message all the same as far as burning dozens of buildings in the city centrethe city is concerned.

The Democrats also badly need a city victory. If they are to lose in the nationwide tally, they will want Bangkok to save face. Moreover, the capital will be more than just a consolation. Any chance to vie for political power after July 3 may hinge on it.

The city battle, therefore, will be fierce and highly tactical. Bangkok often boasts the most fickle voters in Thailand and rarely backs any single party two times in a row. The voters' decision in this election will be influential for the future course of Thai politics, although both the winners and losers will have known they can never take the constituents for granted.

-- The Nation 2011-05-29

[timekeeper]

if the people of Bangkok vote for the same people that tried to burn down their city, they must be truly stupid......

[sirchai]

if the people of Bangkok vote for the same people that tried to burn down their city, they must be truly stupid......

Can the Thaksin camp find its way back into the capital?

Most of them are pretty stupid..........:jap:

[OzMick]

Perhaps the Dems pointing out that PTP promises will nearly double the price of rice with the subsidies coming from the taxes of BKK workers. Self-interest is a 2-edged sword.

[geriatrickid]

What's the mystery? Bangkok is a megacity filled with a relatively small number of haves living in wonderful modern homes and prone to ostentatious displays of their wealth. They are surrounded by a much larger number of have nots that live in filthy crowded places without luxury and that want a bigger piece of the nation's wealth.

Any political party that speaks to these people and that offers them an alternative to the d 6 days a week life of drudgery and debt is going to elicit interest.

Interesting enough when I made the point several months back that the PTP and others were going to gain the support of the disaffected Bangkok residents, the usual group of bashers came out in full force. Again, I say that the interest in parties other than the incumbent Dems is due to the growing divide between haves and have nots. Maybe some foreigners don't see it or prefer to live in denial, but the economic demographics of Thailand facilitates the rise of populist political groups and unfortunately groups that espouse violence. Some people in Bangkok have become wealthier with the arrival of PM Abhisit. However, a great many more became poorer.

[timekeeper]

What's the mystery? Bangkok is a megacity filled with a relatively small number of haves living in wonderful modern homes and prone to ostentatious displays of their wealth. They are surrounded by a much larger number of have nots that live in filthy crowded places without luxury and that want a bigger piece of the nation's wealth.

Any political party that speaks to these people and that offers them an alternative to the d 6 days a week life of drudgery and debt is going to elicit interest.

Interesting enough when I made the point several months back that the PTP and others were going to gain the support of the disaffected Bangkok residents, the usual group of bashers came out in full force. Again, I say that the interest in parties other than the incumbent Dems is due to the growing divide between haves and have nots. Maybe some foreigners don't see it or prefer to live in denial, but the economic demographics of Thailand facilitates the rise of populist political groups and unfortunately groups that espouse violence. Some people in Bangkok have become wealthier with the arrival of PM Abhisit. However, a great many more became poorer.

maybe a great many were made poorer by the invasion of the red revolutionarys?

[hanuman1]

Those who choose to solely focus on the unacceptable violence of 14 months ago will continue to be confounded by the popularity of PTP and their 'red shirt' contingent.

Unable or unwilling to consider the deep-seated grievances of the millions that will vote PTP (whether they win the election or not), their outrage and exasperation will only grow as the popularity of these 'sponsors of terrorism' becomes more apparent.

Thaksin can't vote 20 million times.

Cue jd....

Edited May 29, 2011 by hanuman1

[OzMick]

Those who choose to solely focus on the unacceptable violence of 14 months ago will continue to be confounded by the popularity of PTP and their 'red shirt' contingent.

Unable or unwilling to consider the deep-seated grievances of the millions that will vote PTP (whether they win the election or not), their outrage and exasperation will only grow as the popularity of these 'sponsors of terrorism' becomes more apparent.

Thaksin can't vote 20 million times.

Cue jd....

He must be busy, so...........

I must confess, it confuses the crap out of me why someone would vote for a puppet party with one of the world's great thieves pulling the strings. Maybe from the longer perspective (mine) it is easier to see that PTP and UDD are 2 arms on the same monster, but hell, 14 months was a long time ago to children and idiots.

Thaksin can't vote 20 million times But can he buy 20 million votes?

[ballpoint]

I'd say that Bangkok is going to be a battleground, but after the election. I'd like one Thaksin supporter to answer what they think will be different this time round should PTP get into government and try and bring him back under an amnesty? We all saw what happened last time, when the PPP tried exactly that. All the key players are the same, with the exception that now it's his sister, rather than his brother in law, that is playing a lead role. The PAD may appear to be a spent force, reduced to burbling on about border conflicts, but does anyone really think that they won't be able to mobilise/pay a large group of protestors to disrupt the country? Would the army march against them? Barring a calamitous event before July 3rd, its true leadership will be exactly the same as it was in 2008. In fact, should the PTP attempt to carry out its proposed amnesty, the entire country would be back in exactly the same mess it was in 2008. Albert Einstein famously defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" I'd say old Albert was spot on in his diagnosis of Lt Col. Dr Khun Dear Leader Thaksin.

Last time I remarked on this I had one reply which did nothing to answer the questions, but more or less just said "well, if the PTP do get in power that would reflect the will of the majority of the people". I'm not arguing with that, just thinking about the large, well funded, minority that don't want him back, and have a history of making that clear. What would/could the (making a big assumption here) PTP government do differently from what the PPP one did to control the situation? What could they, and their supporters, really do to stop a peaceful but disruptive protest? And, when it all became violent, what could they really do to prevent the army stepping in again?

Edited May 29, 2011 by ballpoint

[jayboy]

I'd say that Bangkok is going to be a battleground, but after the election. I'd like one Thaksin supporter to answer what they think will be different this time round should PTP get into government and try and bring him back under an amnesty? We all saw what happened last time, when the PPP tried exactly that. All the key players are the same, with the exception that now it's his sister, rather than his brother in law, that is playing a lead role. The PAD may appear to be a spent force, reduced to burbling on about border conflicts, but does anyone really think that they won't be able to mobilise/pay a large group of protestors to disrupt the country? Would the army march against them? Barring a calamitous event before July 3rd, its true leadership will be exactly the same as it was in 2008. In fact, should the PTP attempt to carry out its proposed amnesty, the entire country would be back in exactly the same mess it was in 2008. Albert Einstein famously defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" I'd say old Albert was spot on in his diagnosis of Lt Col. Dr Khun Dear Leader Thaksin.

Last time I remarked on this I had one reply which did nothing to answer the questions, but more or less just said "well, if the PTP do get in power that would reflect the will of the majority of the people". I'm not arguing with that, just thinking about the large, well funded, minority that don't want him back, and have a history of making that clear. What would/could the (making a big assumption here) PTP government do differently from what the PPP one did to control the situation? What could they, and their supporters, really do to stop a peaceful but disruptive protest? And, when it all became violent, what could they really do to prevent the army stepping in again?

I think this is a very fair summary, my main caveat being my doubt PAD will be the chosen instrument to overturn the will of the Thai people.I expect more judicial activism.

The area is discussed by Duncan McCargo in an Asia Society clip.

http://asiasociety.org/video/policy-politics/duncan-mccargos-thai-election-primer

[metisdead]

Posters are reminded to stay on topic and to refrain from comments concerning the character of other posters.

Off topic posts and replies removed.

[ballpoint]

I think this is a very fair summary, my main caveat being my doubt PAD will be the chosen instrument to overturn the will of the Thai people.I expect more judicial activism.

The area is discussed by Duncan McCargo in an Asia Society clip.

http://asiasociety.o...election-primer

Personally, I feel Mr McCargo over simplifies things, but I suppose he's aiming for a "Thai elections in 5 minutes" soundbite. As for his statements about a "reckoning" in the background, I disagree. I think it will be very much in the foreground; both when the anti Thaksin mobs attempt to disrupt any amnesty being declared, and then when the pro Thaksin mobs counter protest. This is why I think he's too divisive a figure to be involved. If the PTP were smart, and they do manage to form a coalition, they'd probably be better served by having him remain out of the country, at least until they have proved the effectiveness, or not, of their/his policies. The question is, would his ego allow that? I see him as having a vision of making a triumphant, runway kissing, return, although, more likely, he'll slip into the country undercover before the elections and lay low until he sees what transpires.

I'm still interested in what the posters who support him think. Do you not agree with my conclusion of another period of protests and violence, or do you agree, but see it as an acceptable step in the country's "progress"?

[jayboy]

Personally, I feel Mr McCargo over simplifies things, but I suppose he's aiming for a "Thai elections in 5 minutes" soundbite. As for his statements about a "reckoning" in the background, I disagree. I think it will be very much in the foreground; both when the anti Thaksin mobs attempt to disrupt any amnesty being declared, and then when the pro Thaksin mobs counter protest. This is why I think he's too divisive a figure to be involved. If the PTP were smart, and they do manage to form a coalition, they'd probably be better served by having him remain out of the country, at least until they have proved the effectiveness, or not, of their/his policies. The question is, would his ego allow that? I see him as having a vision of making a triumphant, runway kissing, return, although, more likely, he'll slip into the country undercover before the elections and lay low until he sees what transpires.

I'm still interested in what the posters who support him think. Do you not agree with my conclusion of another period of protests and violence, or do you agree, but see it as an acceptable step in the country's "progress"?

Duncan McCargo is of course an extremely distinguished Thai scholar so when he simplifies one can be fairly sure he doesn't lose sight of the essential aspects.But you are right complexity is hard to deal with briefly.

I note you assume I'm a Thaksin supporter but, as alluded to above, the reality is more complex.Even now if I had a vote I would be tempted to give it to Abhisit because although Yingluck is interesting I don't yet have confidence in the PTP leadership as a whole.I think your comment about the amnesty scenario is astute and I agree the PTP would be well advised to put this on hold.But I think I differ from you in believing thsat McCargo's conception of the post election reckoning is spot on.We can deliberate what the PTP would do if it was smart but the ruling elite also will need to consider what is smart.It's simply not feasible in the long term for the Thai people to make a clear electoral choice, and be thwarted again by vested interests - whether the military or others.The pressure is building up and old patterns of deference are fading.In this scenario Thaksin, who I see mainly as a catalyst, will simply become irrelevant in the face of something terrible and bloody - putting the violence to date in the shade.What's needed therefore on all sides is a sense of enlightened self interest in which there is a real negotiation.Up to now the Thais involved have foolishly seen it as a zero sum game.

[geriatrickid]

It's all about perceptions. A large chunk of the population most likely want change for the sake of change. Is it any different than the elections in the US that saw the rise of extremist supporters of the republicans in the USA last November, only to see the support for that group start to fall off and the recent loss of a historical republican seat ito an Obama democrat in NY? Or the ground shaking change in Canada that saw the left of center NDP become the official opposition in Canada tossing aside the once strong centrist Liberals? Or the beating Liberal Democrats took in the UK local elections not so long after they made strong gains in the national elections? Electorates around the world are frustrated and want a quick fix. It's the 5 minute noodle syndrome,

Of course it's unrealsitic for people to expect immediate results, but that's not what's driving the voters' intention. They are volatile. I also predict that if large numbers turn out to support the PTP, those same numbers would turn against the PTP 6 months to a year later if they didn't get what they expected.

[jayboy]

It's all about perceptions. A large chunk of the population most likely want change for the sake of change. Is it any different than the elections in the US that saw the rise of extremist supporters of the republicans in the USA last November, only to see the support for that group start to fall off and the recent loss of a historical republican seat ito an Obama democrat in NY? Or the ground shaking change in Canada that saw the left of center NDP become the official opposition in Canada tossing aside the once strong centrist Liberals? Or the beating Liberal Democrats took in the UK local elections not so long after they made strong gains in the national elections? Electorates around the world are frustrated and want a quick fix. It's the 5 minute noodle syndrome,

Of course it's unrealsitic for people to expect immediate results, but that's not what's driving the voters' intention. They are volatile. I also predict that if large numbers turn out to support the PTP, those same numbers would turn against the PTP 6 months to a year later if they didn't get what they expected.

The great thing about electoral democracy is that the people can always throw the bums out - as is the case in Canada, the UK and the US.In Thailand the electoral system works reasonably well but vested interests tend to combine to set aside the Thai peoples wishes.That's what's poisoning the political arena here.

[geriatrickid]

maybe a great many were made poorer by the invasion of the red revolutionarys?

Nope. The vast majority of Bangkok residents, particularly those that lived in the crowded slums were unaffected. They still have their low paying 6 days a week jobs. They still go to work in the oligarchy's factories and homes. The people most impacted by the Red protests were the "haves" that worked and lived in the area where the protests occurred. The low paid cleaners, security guards and construction workers, the "have nots" still had jobs even after the arson attacks and vandalism. If anything, their jobs were made more secure because of the mess. When you have nothing, there isn't anything to lose.

[ballpoint]

maybe a great many were made poorer by the invasion of the red revolutionarys?

Nope. The vast majority of Bangkok residents, particularly those that lived in the crowded slums were unaffected. They still have their low paying 6 days a week jobs. They still go to work in the oligarchy's factories and homes. The people most impacted by the Red protests were the "haves" that worked and lived in the area where the protests occurred. The low paid cleaners, security guards and construction workers, the "have nots" still had jobs even after the arson attacks and vandalism. If anything, their jobs were made more secure because of the mess. When you have nothing, there isn't anything to lose.

I'd imagine that many of the cleaners, security guards and construction workers would not be voting in Bangkok, but back where they originally come from. Conversely, many of the "haves" who were affected will be registered to vote in Bangkok. It's also all too easy to draw a dividing line between the middle class and the poor, but that begs the question of where the middle class originally came from? The gap between the two is often only one or two generations wide. I personally know one couple who are lower middle class by any definition. The wife is the daughter of farmers in our village. They, and she, worked hard to give her a good schooling. Her husband too comes from working class parents. He also had a better than normal schooling and they met while working for a Western company in Bangkok. They now have their own small retail business, which was heavily affected by the red protests. Their views on them, and the people who took part, are rather strong, to say the least. That's one Bangkok middle class family and two rural working class families who definitely won't be voting PTP.

Edited May 29, 2011 by ballpoint

[OzMick]

maybe a great many were made poorer by the invasion of the red revolutionarys?

Nope. The vast majority of Bangkok residents, particularly those that lived in the crowded slums were unaffected. They still have their low paying 6 days a week jobs. They still go to work in the oligarchy's factories and homes. The people most impacted by the Red protests were the "haves" that worked and lived in the area where the protests occurred. The low paid cleaners, security guards and construction workers, the "have nots" still had jobs even after the arson attacks and vandalism. If anything, their jobs were made more secure because of the mess. When you have nothing, there isn't anything to lose.

I disagree. There were many small business owners affected, and a lot of employees laid off because of the length of the disruption. Low paid employees will never make up the money lost while out of work, and there are literally hundreds of small businesses claiming compensation.

[hanuman1]

Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that Thais can vote wherever they currently reside and don't have to go back to the province they are from to vote, or even to the place where their 'Tabien Bahn' is registered.

This is probably why BKK is considered a 'key battleground'. It would probably be more one-sided if everyone from upcountry had to leave town to vote.

[ballpoint]

Personally, I feel Mr McCargo over simplifies things, but I suppose he's aiming for a "Thai elections in 5 minutes" soundbite. As for his statements about a "reckoning" in the background, I disagree. I think it will be very much in the foreground; both when the anti Thaksin mobs attempt to disrupt any amnesty being declared, and then when the pro Thaksin mobs counter protest. This is why I think he's too divisive a figure to be involved. If the PTP were smart, and they do manage to form a coalition, they'd probably be better served by having him remain out of the country, at least until they have proved the effectiveness, or not, of their/his policies. The question is, would his ego allow that? I see him as having a vision of making a triumphant, runway kissing, return, although, more likely, he'll slip into the country undercover before the elections and lay low until he sees what transpires.

I'm still interested in what the posters who support him think. Do you not agree with my conclusion of another period of protests and violence, or do you agree, but see it as an acceptable step in the country's "progress"?

Duncan McCargo is of course an extremely distinguished Thai scholar so when he simplifies one can be fairly sure he doesn't lose sight of the essential aspects.But you are right complexity is hard to deal with briefly.

I note you assume I'm a Thaksin supporter but, as alluded to above, the reality is more complex.Even now if I had a vote I would be tempted to give it to Abhisit because although Yingluck is interesting I don't yet have confidence in the PTP leadership as a whole.I think your comment about the amnesty scenario is astute and I agree the PTP would be well advised to put this on hold.But I think I differ from you in believing thsat McCargo's conception of the post election reckoning is spot on.We can deliberate what the PTP would do if it was smart but the ruling elite also will need to consider what is smart.It's simply not feasible in the long term for the Thai people to make a clear electoral choice, and be thwarted again by vested interests - whether the military or others.The pressure is building up and old patterns of deference are fading.In this scenario Thaksin, who I see mainly as a catalyst, will simply become irrelevant in the face of something terrible and bloody - putting the violence to date in the shade.What's needed therefore on all sides is a sense of enlightened self interest in which there is a real negotiation.Up to now the Thais involved have foolishly seen it as a zero sum game.

My last paragraph wasn't really aimed at you, but rather at those who have strongly indicated their support for Thaksin's return, which is why I put it separately. Perhaps I should have made that clearer.

To clarify my disagreement with the background reckoning, I have no doubt that even now the different scenarios and their counters are being debated by those with the power, but whether they can, or desire to, reign in the likes of Sondhi, Chamlong and Newin should Thaksin return in triumph is another story. Chalerm's policy of "reconciliation for all except Abhist and Suthep" throws another spanner in the works. While I could see Abhisit being thrown to the wolves, I don't think Suthep, and his connections, would go quietly. I therefore come to the conclusion that, should the PTP form a government and persist in its stated amnesty for all (except Abhisit and Suthep) policy, events in the foreground will overshadow those in the background. I would like nothing more than to see a true grassroots movement, non aligned to any current political party or faction, emerge from all this and remain as a watchdog and agent for change. Unfortunately, in the short term at least, I can only see bloodshed and the hijacking of any such movement by the vested interests on both sides.

Edited May 29, 2011 by ballpoint

[rubl]

Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that Thais can vote wherever they currently reside and don't have to go back to the province they are from to vote, or even to the place where their 'Tabien Bahn' is registered.

This is probably why BKK is considered a 'key battleground'. It would probably be more one-sided if everyone from upcountry had to leave town to vote.

I guess I have to do some reading on the election laws in Thailand. Any kind soul around here who can shed light on this issue or provide a link, preferably in English ?

[whybother]

Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that Thais can vote wherever they currently reside and don't have to go back to the province they are from to vote, or even to the place where their 'Tabien Bahn' is registered.

This is probably why BKK is considered a 'key battleground'. It would probably be more one-sided if everyone from upcountry had to leave town to vote.

My understanding is that they have to vote where they are registered. That usually means that they have to go back "home" to vote, but they can also apply to vote prior to the election day (in this case on 26th June). This pre-poll vote will still be for their "home" electorate, but they don't have to go "home" to do it.

[maewrocks]

I think this is a very fair summary, my main caveat being my doubt PAD will be the chosen instrument to overturn the will of the Thai people.I expect more judicial activism.

The area is discussed by Duncan McCargo in an Asia Society clip.

http://asiasociety.o...election-primer

Personally, I feel Mr McCargo over simplifies things, but I suppose he's aiming for a "Thai elections in 5 minutes" soundbite. As for his statements about a "reckoning" in the background, I disagree. I think it will be very much in the foreground; both when the anti Thaksin mobs attempt to disrupt any amnesty being declared, and then when the pro Thaksin mobs counter protest. This is why I think he's too divisive a figure to be involved. If the PTP were smart, and they do manage to form a coalition, they'd probably be better served by having him remain out of the country, at least until they have proved the effectiveness, or not, of their/his policies. The question is, would his ego allow that? I see him as having a vision of making a triumphant, runway kissing, return, although, more likely, he'll slip into the country undercover before the elections and lay low until he sees what transpires.

I'm still interested in what the posters who support him think. Do you not agree with my conclusion of another period of protests and violence, or do you agree, but see it as an acceptable step in the country's "progress"?

The red shirts are far more established and organised now than they were when the yellows protested last time. The red leaders have said many times that they would be mobilised in large numbers to counter any anti PT/Thaksin movement or coup.

[otherstuff1957]

It's all about perceptions. A large chunk of the population most likely want change for the sake of change. Is it any different than the elections in the US that saw the rise of extremist supporters of the republicans in the USA last November, only to see the support for that group start to fall off and the recent loss of a historical republican seat ito an Obama democrat in NY? Or the ground shaking change in Canada that saw the left of center NDP become the official opposition in Canada tossing aside the once strong centrist Liberals? Or the beating Liberal Democrats took in the UK local elections not so long after they made strong gains in the national elections? Electorates around the world are frustrated and want a quick fix. It's the 5 minute noodle syndrome,

Of course it's unrealistic for people to expect immediate results, but that's not what's driving the voters' intention. They are volatile. I also predict that if large numbers turn out to support the PTP, those same numbers would turn against the PTP 6 months to a year later if they didn't get what they expected.

I would tend to agree with this assessment. While PT will probably win the biggest minority in the upcoming election, they will still be faced with the problem of putting together a coalition. Also, I don't think that Thaksin will be able to reign in his ego. He will probably drive Yingluck crazy trying to micromanage her from abroad! With all of this baggage, I would be very surprised if they can last a full year, much less a full term.

[lanna2011]

It's all about perceptions. A large chunk of the population most likely want change for the sake of change. Is it any different than the elections in the US that saw the rise of extremist supporters of the republicans in the USA last November, only to see the support for that group start to fall off and the recent loss of a historical republican seat ito an Obama democrat in NY? Or the ground shaking change in Canada that saw the left of center NDP become the official opposition in Canada tossing aside the once strong centrist Liberals? Or the beating Liberal Democrats took in the UK local elections not so long after they made strong gains in the national elections? Electorates around the world are frustrated and want a quick fix. It's the 5 minute noodle syndrome,

Of course it's unrealistic for people to expect immediate results, but that's not what's driving the voters' intention. They are volatile. I also predict that if large numbers turn out to support the PTP, those same numbers would turn against the PTP 6 months to a year later if they didn't get what they expected.

I would tend to agree with this assessment. While PT will probably win the biggest minority in the upcoming election, they will still be faced with the problem of putting together a coalition. Also, I don't think that Thaksin will be able to reign in his ego. He will probably drive Yingluck crazy trying to micromanage her from abroad! With all of this baggage, I would be very surprised if they can last a full year, much less a full term.

some sense in this - I'm guessing they will get the majority votes and fail to form a government and so the cycle of frustration will continue (unfortunately)

[rubl]

The red shirts are far more established and organised now than they were when the yellows protested last time. The red leaders have said many times that they would be mobilised in large numbers to counter any anti PT/Thaksin movement or coup.

Interesting you include k. Thaksin in this, the guy who went on record saying 'I don't know any of them'

Edited May 30, 2011 by rubl

[ballpoint]

Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that Thais can vote wherever they currently reside and don't have to go back to the province they are from to vote, or even to the place where their 'Tabien Bahn' is registered.

This is probably why BKK is considered a 'key battleground'. It would probably be more one-sided if everyone from upcountry had to leave town to vote.

My understanding is that they have to vote where they are registered. That usually means that they have to go back "home" to vote, but they can also apply to vote prior to the election day (in this case on 26th June). This pre-poll vote will still be for their "home" electorate, but they don't have to go "home" to do it.

That is correct. They must for for the constituency of their house registration (tabian bahn). The registration must have been done 90 days or more prior to the election.

[ballpoint]

The red shirts are far more established and organised now than they were when the yellows protested last time. The red leaders have said many times that they would be mobilised in large numbers to counter any anti PT/Thaksin movement or coup.

Interesting you include k. Thaksin in this, the guy who went on record saying 'I don't know any of them'

I find it interesting that he simply parrots what the red leaders say, rather than give us his own opinion. So they will mobilise in large numbers? Will the violence that results really be worth it just to get Thaksin back?

[ginjag]

The red shirts are far more established and organised now than they were when the yellows protested last time. The red leaders have said many times that they would be mobilised in large numbers to counter any anti PT/Thaksin movement or coup.

Interesting you include k. Thaksin in this, the guy who went on record saying 'I don't know any of them'

Even if he doesn't ""Know them"" one can always inquire their acc No at the bank.