Figuring Out The Maths Of Power; Thailand Election

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Figuring out the maths of power

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

While the magic number for Abhisit and Democrats is 170-200 seats, for Thaksin and Pheu Thai it is 230-250

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and former prime minister Thaksin Shina-watra have simultaneously made remarks that could turn out to be quite prophetic for the next government.

In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Abhist said he was confident about overtaking Pheu Thai in the final two weeks of campaigning. The Democrats could win as many as 200 of the 500 House seats, he said, adding that he would step down as party leader if the Democrats won less than 170 seats.

Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban repeated Abhisit's stance, saying: "If we win less than 170, I too will resign. We are in the same team."

So, judging from these remarks the Democrat Party's magic number lies somewhere between 170 and 200.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Kyodo news agency in Dubai, Thaksin said his sister Yingluck would win "an outright majority" and that Pheu Thai was aiming to form the coalition alliance with smaller parties that win one or two seats each.

By conjecture, his remarks implied that Pheu Thai's victory could translate into a simple majority of 250 seats, hence it was unnecessary to woo main parties like Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin.

Instead, he said, Pheu Thai would target small parties like Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's New Aspiration, Purachai Piumsomboon's Rak Santi and the Taen Khun Pandin led by Waemahadi Waedao.

Pheu Thai's magic number clearly lies between 230 and 250, assuming the next coalition would aim to have around 300 votes in the House.

Political commentators and analysts predict a big wrestling match between the two key parties before the House convenes for the first time in August to elect the prime minister. Should Pheu Thai win, it would definitely have the first chance at forming the coalition, though problems would arise if the winning party had less than 200 seats.

To ensure a smooth transition into a coalition, Pheu Thai should be able to grab at least 230 seats - a goal that many have said will be impossible to achieve.

For Thaksin to stage a comeback, Pheu Thai would have to win big.

In the event that the Democrats secure close to 200 seats but lose, the main parties would either shun Pheu Thai or dictate tough conditions. This would force Pheu Thai's coalition talks to collapse and the runner-up would then be given a shot at forming the next government.

-- The Nation 2011-06-16

[sirchai]

Meanwhile, in an interview with Kyodo news agency in Dubai, Thaksin said his sister Yingluck would win "an outright majority" and that Pheu Thai was aiming to form the coalition alliance with smaller parties that win one or two seats each.

Thaksin said..................like Simon said for kids? :jap:

[virtualtraveller]

Yes, 230 is the magic number for PT, they know full well that with CTP on board they won't manage to push through their amnesty bill, making it all a pointless exercise.

The unknown is how many seats BJT steal from both sides. If the PTP finish more than 40 ahead of the Dems, a minority coalition will not wash with the public and we can expect the UDD back on the streets. Since BJTs chances are dead in the water for a PTP coalition they should just come out with an official alliance with the Dems, so that 250 seats between them would be the new magic number, that will pull the carpet from under the UDDs feet.

[OzMick]

Yes, 230 is the magic number for PT, they know full well that with CTP on board they won't manage to push through their amnesty bill, making it all a pointless exercise.

The unknown is how many seats BJT steal from both sides. If the PTP finish more than 40 ahead of the Dems, a minority coalition will not wash with the public and we can expect the UDD back on the streets. Since BJTs chances are dead in the water for a PTP coalition they should just come out with an official alliance with the Dems, so that 250 seats between them would be the new magic number, that will pull the carpet from under the UDDs feet.

I expect UDD back on the streets if anybody other than PTP form a government, whatever the numbers or reason. Though they claim to love and protect democracy, they have very little understanding of its workings, much like most of their supporters on this forum.

[KKvampire]

So a ptp lead government would pass legislation for an amnesty of convicted criminals ,an ex pm and assortment of thugs of UDD?A good way of uniting the country?I think not,A POWDERKEG

[cardholder]

Yes, 230 is the magic number for PT, they know full well that with CTP on board they won't manage to push through their amnesty bill, making it all a pointless exercise.

The unknown is how many seats BJT steal from both sides. If the PTP finish more than 40 ahead of the Dems, a minority coalition will not wash with the public and we can expect the UDD back on the streets. Since BJTs chances are dead in the water for a PTP coalition they should just come out with an official alliance with the Dems, so that 250 seats between them would be the new magic number, that will pull the carpet from under the UDDs feet.

This is one of the most succinct summaries I have seen - and logical. Therefore, it will not happen.

[lungmi]

Yes, 230 is the magic number for PT, they know full well that with CTP on board they won't manage to push through their amnesty bill, making it all a pointless exercise.

The unknown is how many seats BJT steal from both sides. If the PTP finish more than 40 ahead of the Dems, a minority coalition will not wash with the public and we can expect the UDD back on the streets. Since BJTs chances are dead in the water for a PTP coalition they should just come out with an official alliance with the Dems, so that 250 seats between them would be the new magic number, that will pull the carpet from under the UDDs feet.

This is one of the most succinct summaries I have seen - and logical. Therefore, it will not happen.

Yes , it is a correct analysis founded by facts of History. (not only Thailand)

When you say it will not be happen, then you have a lot of arguements. I agree.I have the same.

But I see in my rural area (o.k. stronghold of Dems) we have still "reds", my friends, but no Thaksin.

People know quickly ( in Thaland it takes more time) what is good, what is bad.

In my democrat village we have a Health Station with competent nurses, garbage collection with recycling and a lot of services the Eesarn with Thaksin never had,

[maidu]

Yes, 230 is the magic number for PT, they know full well that with CTP on board they won't manage to push through their amnesty bill, making it all a pointless exercise.

The unknown is how many seats BJT steal from both sides. If the PTP finish more than 40 ahead of the Dems, a minority coalition will not wash with the public and we can expect the UDD back on the streets. Since BJTs chances are dead in the water for a PTP coalition they should just come out with an official alliance with the Dems, so that 250 seats between them would be the new magic number, that will pull the carpet from under the UDDs feet.

I expect UDD back on the streets if anybody other than PTP form a government, whatever the numbers or reason. Though they claim to love and protect democracy, they have very little understanding of its workings, much like most of their supporters on this forum.

If PT wins, the Yellows will be out protesting. If the Dems win, PT will claim fraud and be out rioting. Without real debates (debates without restrictions and without threats of defamation suits), Thailand will remain in the nursery of Democracy.

Edited June 16, 2011 by maidu