Thaksin Faces Long Journey Home

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Thaksin faces long journey home

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

The Bangkok-Dubai flight takes about six hours - but ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra might need at least a year to complete his homecoming journey, provided everything goes according to Pheu Thai's plan.

For the past few weeks, Thaksin has revealed his desire to attend his elder daughter's wedding in December. Even if Pheu Thai wins a landslide victory in the July 3 vote, it will not be able to perform miracles to bring him in from the cold by the year's end.

As a Thai citizen, Thaksin is free to return to his homeland. Instead he has chosen to exile himself and live as a fugitive in Dubai to evade his two-year jail term after his conviction for conflict of interest in 2008.

Under relevant laws, the shortest route for Thaksin to overcome his legal wrangling is to start serving his punishment to pave the way for a royal pardon.

Should he decide to end his life on the run and go to jail, legal precedents have shown that pardon could be granted in a mere month or two. If he activates his pardon process soon after the inauguration of the Pheu Thai-led government, he could win his freedom with plenty of time to spare before his daughter's wedding.

He has refused, however, to seek a pardon. Under two successive governments, those of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawt, he could have served his imprisonment sentence but didn't.

Judging from his remarks, he cannot accept what he sees as injustice inflicted by the 2006 coup. He perceives himself as a victim deprived of due process.

Since he views his conviction and sentencing as unjust, it is inconceivable for him to show remorse for a crime he believes did not commit. He appears unwilling to comply with a mandatory first step in seeking a pardon - to repent for his graft violations.

An option still left open and unexplored is to whitewash himself via amnesty.

A cascade of events since 2005 have compounded the social divisions in Thailand and the public is being misled into believing there could be a blanket amnesty applicable to all key players, including Thaksin.

Incidents and circumstances must be sorted out before a legal remedy can be concocted for each specific case. Thaksin's predicament goes beyond the problems faced by others.

An act of Parliament or an executive decree sanctioned by Parliament might suffice to end all court battles in connection with street protests led by the red and yellow shirts.

To rescue Thaksin, his amnesty must touch on the amending of Article 309 of the Constitution. This charter provision sanctions actions and measures undertaken by the coup leaders, such as the formation of the Assets Examination Committee, the agency in charge of prosecuting Thaksin.

Legal pundits in the pro- and anti-Thaksin camps have agreed that in the Thaksin case, Article 309 should be rewritten to negate the prosecution mandate as grounds for the wrongful seizure of power.

The unanswered question is how to amend the country's highest law without appearing to benefit just one man. Furthermore, the best legal minds in the pro-Thaksin camp have yet to form a consensus on the extent to which Article 309 must be rewritten before Pheu Thai could start pushing for amnesty.

Once Pheu Thai has a firm idea about the shape and form of amnesty designed for Thaksin, House and Senate deliberations will take no less than five months. Then the Constitution Court would have to rule on its constitutionality. Thaksin would be lucky if he could return by next year.

-- The Nation 2011-06-21

[ianbaggie]

Laughable that one person could feel themselves to be so far above the law "how many other criminals on death row, In federal prisons in HM Government prisons feel that they are innocent? The fact is mr Thaksin - there is a due legal process to go through whether you feel the coup was wrong or not. Be a man and go through it Khun Shinawatra - like the rest of the human race would. I find it deeply disturbing that all the pain and hardship that thailand is and has gone through in the last 5 years is for the benefit of one man with so little character or moral fiber. This is what makes the red shirt cause a lost cause by any standards in the world!!

[sbk]

I strongly suggest that anyone posting in political threads in news read the pinned announcement before posting

[SomTumTiger]

The chances of Thaksin returning to Thailand, and not going straight to jail, are nil, imo.

[Titoyohn]

The one whois without sin shall throw the first stone: that also applies for politics....

[SomTumTiger]

The one whois without sin shall throw the first stone: that also applies for politics....

Would seem the politicians aren't listening Tito, they thrown stones all the time, usually at one another.

[janverbeem]

The chances of Thaksin returning to Thailand, and not going straight to jail, are nil, imo.

If you think so the can you explain why his convicted ex-wife who stays in Thailand is still walking around free.

If PTP wins the elections,which is a sure fact,and is able to form a government,which is not so sure yet,he will land at swampy within a month and probably kiss the concrete once again.He might pass the jail but will go to start straigth after that.

[ableguy]

The one whois without sin shall throw the first stone: that also applies for politics....

Would seem the politicians aren't listening Tito, they thrown stones all the time, usually at one another.

And bullets.

[virtualtraveller]

I've been asking both the BP and Nation to write this sort of article for some time now. It still doesn't touch on the Ratchapedisek case that will put him behind bars. He's yet to be convicted in the Assets case, or at least handed down a punishment. It's a criminal conviction unrelated to politics, however the absent of an appeal process, which would allow him to be freed on bail, is the result of a retro-actively applied law in the 2007 constitution. It can be argued that retro-actively applying a law is unfair, even if it's the terms of the sentencing rather than the law which was enacted after the crime was committed. It's most likely that PTP would manage to roll back this, allowing Thaksin his bail freedom for years, while an appeal inches through court awaiting a more friendly set of judges. Also, though the spirit of the law is sound in sentencing him in this case, there is less grounds for absolute guilt - in other words he was 'judged' to be guilty because he was PM at the time and 'influenced' the case. This is the where his lot are saying the process wasn't transparent, it's certainly a grey area of the law where 'intention' is used as the justification for a guilty verdict.

Certainly, from a legal perspective, you're looking at 1 year minimum to push all this through, even if PTP get a majority in parliament.

They could still try the pardon route, suggesting that the time served in exile is comparable to jail time, but I don't see it being granted by the man at the top.

One wonders what else they're going to try, other than a sweeping in-yer-face amnesty, bulldozed through, interpreted as 'anything Thaksin was convicted of is political and therefore void', with him stepping out the plane going 'boo! arrest me' and we all know how effective the police would be in doing that!

Either it's the usual Thaksin cockeyed-optimism bluster, or he's ready for the brinkmanship of a yellow versus red street battled to settle it all. I hope not.

His arrogance know no bounds, but the intelligent and law abiding citizens aren't fooled. More proof of why this man should never be let near the reigns of power ever again.

[animatic]

The chances of Thaksin returning to Thailand, and not going straight to jail, are nil, imo.

If you think so the can you explain why his convicted ex-wife who stays in Thailand is still walking around free.

If PTP wins the elections,which is a sure fact,and is able to form a government,which is not so sure yet,he will land at swampy within a month and probably kiss the concrete once again.He might pass the jail but will go to start straigth after that.

She is keeping a relatively low profile herself.

He has more than just the one conviction to worry about.

Full Amnesty is is only shot not to die in jail.

He knows this or hw wouldn't be in SELF EXILE.

[renaissanc]

Thailand chooses to experience so much turmoil because of one man with an ego the size of Isaan.

[Buchholz]

The chances of Thaksin returning to Thailand, and not going straight to jail, are nil, imo.

If you think so the can you explain why his convicted ex-wife who stays in Thailand is still walking around free.

If PTP wins the elections,which is a sure fact,and is able to form a government,which is not so sure yet,he will land at swampy within a month and probably kiss the concrete once again.He might pass the jail but will go to start straigth after that.

One difference between Thaksin and his supposedly divorced wife Potjaman is their status following conviction.

Potjaman appealed her verdict and thus remains free on bail (for nearly three years now).

Thaksin did NOT appeal his verdict and thus, if the law is followed, should be remanded into custody upon his return.

.

[animatic]

Thailand chooses to experience so much turmoil because of one man with an ego the size of Isaan.

It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful

too often bend the acts of government to

their own selfish purposes.

-Andrew Jackson

Justice and power must be brought together,

so that whatever is just may be powerful,

and whatever is powerful may be just.

- Blaise Pascal

We are no longer puppets being manipulated

by outside powerful forces:

we become the powerful force ourselves.

-Leo Buscagalia

Who is wise? He that learns from everyone.

Who is powerful? He that governs his passions.

Who is rich? He that is content.

Who is that?

Nobody.

- Benjamin Franklin

He who controls others may be powerful,

but he who has mastered himself

is mightier still.

- Lao Tzu

In the eyes of history Thaksin Shinawatra will be judged a very poor man, for all his wealth has not brought him contentment, nor good will, nor, above all, self-mastery.

Edited June 21, 2011 by animatic

[anterian]

Thaksin has great popular support, he also has a compatriot who greatly needs this popular support.

They have had dealings in the past, future dealings could work to the benefit of both. The current PAD posture is an indicator.

My apologies for being enigmatic.

[drdoom6996]

Thailand chooses to experience so much turmoil because of one man with an ego the size of Isaan.

It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful

too often bend the acts of government to

their own selfish purposes.

-Andrew Jackson

Justice and power must be brought together,

so that whatever is just may be powerful,

and whatever is powerful may be just.

- Blaise Pascal

We are no longer puppets being manipulated

by outside powerful forces:

we become the powerful force ourselves.

-Leo Buscagalia

Who is wise? He that learns from everyone.

Who is powerful? He that governs his passions.

Who is rich? He that is content.

Who is that?

Nobody.

- Benjamin Franklin

He who controls others may be powerful,

but he who has mastered himself

is mightier still.

- Lao Tzu

In the eyes of history Thaksin Shinawatra will be judged a very poor man, for all his wealth has not brought him contentment, nor good will, nor, above all, self-mastery.

May I add;

Absolute power

Corrupts absolutely

[MILT]

Thailand chooses to experience so much turmoil because of one man with an ego the size of Isaan.

It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful

too often bend the acts of government to

their own selfish purposes.

-Andrew Jackson

Justice and power must be brought together,

so that whatever is just may be powerful,

and whatever is powerful may be just.

- Blaise Pascal

We are no longer puppets being manipulated

by outside powerful forces:

we become the powerful force ourselves.

-Leo Buscagalia

Who is wise? He that learns from everyone.

Who is powerful? He that governs his passions.

Who is rich? He that is content.

Who is that?

Nobody.

- Benjamin Franklin

He who controls others may be powerful,

but he who has mastered himself

is mightier still.

- Lao Tzu

In the eyes of history Thaksin Shinawatra will be judged a very poor man, for all his wealth has not brought him contentment, nor good will, nor, above all, self-mastery.

Cool stuff.

[lungmi]

"He who controls others may be powerful,

but he who has mastered himself

is mightier still.

- Lao Tzu"

"The best protection against thieves and robbers is: Nothing to have. Lao Tzu"

Meaning: worldly wealth attracts the robbers, spiritual wealth is the only protection.

Or the greed to be wealthy, to be rich, to have big face, to have money without your own effort (without your own wealth: spiritualty) leads you

to follow the robbers.

Edited June 21, 2011 by lungmi

[Britannia]

It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful

too often bend the acts of government to

their own selfish purposes.

-Andrew Jackson

Justice and power must be brought together,

so that whatever is just may be powerful,

and whatever is powerful may be just.

- Blaise Pascal

We are no longer puppets being manipulated

by outside powerful forces:

we become the powerful force ourselves.

-Leo Buscagalia

Who is wise? He that learns from everyone.

Who is powerful? He that governs his passions.

Who is rich? He that is content.

Who is that?

Nobody.

- Benjamin Franklin

He who controls others may be powerful,

but he who has mastered himself

is mightier still.

- Lao Tzu

AND HERE IS ONE MORE

Openning words of Woodstock

So everyone wants to change the World

So it becomes a better place

Well lets start today by changing the world

Everyone change yourself

Swami Satchidananda

[ratcatcher]

Well, since we are on quotes that may apply to Thaksin and Thai politicians, here's a few more gems.

Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.

Oscar Ameringer

Some men change their party for the sake of their principles; others their principles for the sake of their party.

Winston Churchill

Politics: A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage.

Ambrose Bierce,

We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.A

Aesop

Whenever a man has cast a longing eye on offices, a rottenness begins in his conduct.

Thomas Jefferson

"An honest man can never be bought. That’s why there are so few in politics."

QueenBee

Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.

Ronald Reagan

[looping]

We don't have a vote so may I suggest that we all take a deep breath, sit back and watch the farce unfold. Whatever happens, the sun will still rise in the morning and there will always be a happy hour on Soi Cowboy

[Bkkorupcountry]

We don't have a vote so may I suggest that we all take a deep breath, sit back and watch the farce unfold. Whatever happens, the sun will still rise in the morning and there will always be a happy hour on Soi Cowboy

Won't be so happy if Thaksin loses and the girls of soi Cowboi go on strike!

[scorecard]

So thaksin wants it all reversed to the situation immediately before the 2006 coup.

Well if he was really genuine he would be saying that he wants the situation returned to the status quo before the first coup.

Edited June 21, 2011 by scorecard

[animatic]

...

Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.

Oscar Ameringer...

....Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.

Ronald Reagan

Sooooooooo totally on the mark.

Thanks, particularly for the 1st one.

Edited June 21, 2011 by animatic

[animatic]

So thaksin wants it all reversed to the situation immediately before the 2006 coup.

Well if he was really genuine he would be saying that he wants the situation returned to the status quo before the first coup.

The 1997 constitution gave him methods to manipulate the situation,

and profit from it, that are removed from the 2007,and coupled to the Amnesty it puts HIS position back to square one. He is the primary beneficiary, not ' the people '.

Edited June 21, 2011 by animatic

[bristolgeoff]

he would have done his time by now,like he his friends have done allready.if he had the bottle.now he hides and hopes for a pardon

[animatic]

he would have done his time by now,like he his friends have done allready.if he had the bottle.now he hides and hopes for a pardon

Naw, that's the problem,

he would have had no choice while incarcerated but to acknowledge

the OTHER charges against him in court that are stalled by his

not going to court to do so.

He would be waist deep or higher in legal paper work,

and those case are likely to have sterner sentences,

more evidence to incriminate him, that he can't control,

the conviction for he has had will play against him in all the courts. It will be a cascade he won't live to see the end of.

Edited June 21, 2011 by animatic

[Buchholz]

We don't have a vote so may I suggest that we all take a deep breath, sit back and watch the farce unfold. Whatever happens, the sun will still rise in the morning and there will always be a happy hour on Soi Cowboy

Won't be so happy if Thaksin loses and the girls of soi Cowboi go on strike!

Won't be so happy if Thaksin wins and brings Purachai back into a coalition who then shuts down Soi Cowboy.

.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

We don't have a vote so may I suggest that we all take a deep breath, sit back and watch the farce unfold. Whatever happens, the sun will still rise in the morning and there will always be a happy hour on Soi Cowboy

Won't be so happy if Thaksin loses and the girls of soi Cowboi go on strike!

Won't be so happy if Thaksin wins and brings Purachai back into a coalition who then shuts down Soi Cowboy.

.

Ah. Now I understand your concerns, and how this affects your political opinions. I don't mind a beer either, but my concern is firstly for Thailand.

[rubl]

The tricky part of the OP is in it's last paragraph

"Once Pheu Thai has a firm idea about the shape and form of amnesty designed for Thaksin, ..."

It must be the opinion of the writer of the piece, k. Avudh Panananda. PTP and various people from it's top have stated regularly 'the amnesty is not a priority', 'the amnesty is not about Thaksin', etc., etc. Someone should inform him, or should the PTP sue him for defamation ?

[animatic]

We don't have a vote so may I suggest that we all take a deep breath, sit back and watch the farce unfold. Whatever happens, the sun will still rise in the morning and there will always be a happy hour on Soi Cowboy

Won't be so happy if Thaksin loses and the girls of soi Cowboi go on strike!

Won't be so happy if Thaksin wins and brings Purachai back into a coalition who then shuts down Soi Cowboy.

.

Ah. Now I understand your concerns, and how this affects your political opinions. I don't mind a beer either, but my concern is firstly for Thailand.

One of many concerns, but not close to highest on the long list.