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If The Us Defaults On Its Debt Next Month...


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From a friend: They sent my Census form back! AGAIN!!! In response to the question: "Do you have any dependents?" I replied - "12 million illegal immigrants; 3 million crack heads; 42 million unemployable people, 2 million people in over 243 prisons; and 535 more in the U.S. House & Senate. Apparently, this was NOT an acceptable, though totally true answer.:crying:

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Short term, the debt ceiling has to be raised to meet CURRENT obligations. We can't just renege on those obligations -- for obvious reasons (apparently not obvious, however, to the Tea Party).

oh really? You mean even when the money is spent this way? :whistling:

http://coburn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?a=Files.Serve&File_id=f6cd2052-b088-44c3-b146-5baa5c01552a

Obviously, the NSF is one of those agencies due for a severe haircut. Not sure it can be done by Aug 2, or Sep 2, or Dec 2, however. (Hint: I'm being facetious.)

If you're going to quote me, please keep the context intact.

Two completely separate problems...Short term, the debt ceiling has to be raised to meet CURRENT obligations...Long term, the deficits HAVE to be brought down.

The whole Federal government needs to be turned on its head, to include redefining what it is we want government to do, as well as cleaning up those agencies we deem necessary. But defaulting on our obligations during this clean up period is not the efficient, nor effective, way to cleaning house. Yeah, it certainly gets one's attention. But most of us are wearing thin with all this spoiled brat crap.

But just a few pages back in this thread you posted the article from that anarchistic anthropologist supporting your view the US government doesn't need to adhere to household budgeting principles? :huh:

Surely eliminating waste is one of the first ways to look for savings which should be acted upon now not later? You're suggesting to continue to meet all the obligations now whether they are good or a complete waste of money and then make the cutbacks later….. :lol:

and any fiscally responsible person would know that would never happen

“government doesn't tax to get the money it needs, government always needs the money it gets.”

Ronald Wilson Reagan

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I heard an interesting comment on CNN yesterday. Talking about the freshmen congressmen, the tea party guys. They don't owe anything to anybody as they are newbies. And don't seem to really care if they become life long politicians. So they are doing the right thing as opposed to going with the party line. They got elected to deal with the deficit and they are holding to their promises. Great stuff. Congrats guys...and gals....

It is rather refreshing isn't it?

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Surely eliminating waste is one of the first ways to look for savings which should be acted upon now not later?

Ok, pull all funding on the NSF on the first day of default -- even tho' Coborn, who pointed out the waste elements, says there are definitely good aspects to NSF....? Knee-jerk cuts vs. winding down just doesn't seem to be the efficient way to get our federal house in order. And, in fact, the cuts tied to the debt ceiling raise are (or were) to occur over the next 10 years, although some sooner than others. Fortunately, unlike a household, the feds can run on deficit for many years. As long as the folks buying our debt know we are seriously addressing our deficit problem -- and the deficit remains at a reasonable level to GDP -- all is well and good. And, does anyone really believe we'll NOT address our deficit problem -- and make some tough decisions? (Ok, question was not meant for the Tea Party.)

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From a friend: They sent my Census form back! AGAIN!!! In response to the question: "Do you have any dependents?" I replied - "12 million illegal immigrants; 3 million crack heads; 42 million unemployable people, 2 million people in over 243 prisons; and 535 more in the U.S. House & Senate. Apparently, this was NOT an acceptable, though totally true answer.:crying:

Absolutely fantastic!!!!!

Surely eliminating waste is one of the first ways to look for savings which should be acted upon now not later?

Ok, pull all funding on the NSF on the first day of default -- even tho' Coborn, who pointed out the waste elements, says there are definitely good aspects to NSF....? Knee-jerk cuts vs. winding down just doesn't seem to be the efficient way to get our federal house in order. And, in fact, the cuts tied to the debt ceiling raise are (or were) to occur over the next 10 years, although some sooner than others. Fortunately, unlike a household, the feds can run on deficit for many years. As long as the folks buying our debt know we are seriously addressing our deficit problem -- and the deficit remains at a reasonable level to GDP -- all is well and good. And, does anyone really believe we'll NOT address our deficit problem -- and make some tough decisions? (Ok, question was not meant for the Tea Party.)

I did like the jello wrestling match on the south pole. Though a bit harsh to fire somebody over that. Can't imagine how boring it would be there day after day after day...

As you say, Jim, nothing wrong with a deficit. All of us are in debt to some extent at some point in our lives (houses, cars, education, etc.). I know I took advantage of loans when I had a few "skinny" years...and paid them off when things got better.

Problem is, our leaders don't know how to deal with this situation. :(

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I heard an interesting comment on CNN yesterday...They got elected to deal with the deficit and they are holding to their promises. Great stuff. Congrats guys...and gals..

Well, they got elected because the voters were tired of the slow growth rate, and high unemployment numbers under Obama. And they were told the cause was the stimulus, and the immense deficit it caused. But were they right?

Now, the only 'fair and balanced' news in the US these days is the PBS Newshour. This from a year ago (but still pertinent):

Economists Mark Zandi and Alan Blinder said the stimulus of nearly $800 billion, plus the Wall Street bailout, known as TARP, and other measures, likely warded off an outright depression.

The study found that, without those programs, the gross domestic product would be 6.5 percent lower, eight million more people would be unemployed, and prices would be falling as deflation set in.

But such benefits also come with high costs. Last week, the White House projected a deficit of nearly $1.48 trillion for this fiscal year. That's down slightly from an earlier estimate, but still amounts to 10 percent of the nation's total economic output.

Hmmmm. Significantly increase the deficit, but prevent a depression. No real choice to be made here -- if you accept Zandi and Binder's report.

Now, to keep this balanced, Newshour had Zandi on the show, with an economist with an opposing view. The interview can be found HERE

The truth about the stimulus (and Keynesian Theory) re the Great Recession will always be contentious (which doesn't bode well when the next 2008 hits). And, thus by direct correlation, the question of how (or how much) to deal with the US deficit. However, smarter folks than the forum members here are on both sides of this argument, so don't look for any consensus.

Best we can hope for is that this brinksmanship doesn't cause any real problems... but I have my fears (my IRAs have already whispered in my ear this week....).

I do feel we'll be seeing a lot more of the Simpson-Bowles report -- or similar. And that something ACTUALLY will get done to seriously address the deficits -- with no need to dress up like an Indian.

But, then, I guess I'm forgetting that Congress, particularly of late, hasn't shown too many smarts.

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Hmmmm. Significantly increase the deficit, but prevent a depression.

Not prevent...delay at best. And not just a depression either. Collapse. The USA is bankrupt. Nobody with a shred of honesty would try and say they aren't. The only way forward is a major restructuring and many, many people taking substantial haircuts. Also the loss of reserve currency status. However you play it, millions of Americans are going to wind up hopelessly destitute when the ponzi scheme comes crashing down. And it will crash. Even war won't stop it. It is only a matter of time, and I'm convinced that if I live a statistically normal lifetime I will live to see the day when it does.

Unfortunately, even the Tea Party candidates aren't being honest with the voters about what is coming. If they were, they couldn't get elected. Nobody would elect someone who told the truth. Even Ron Paul isn't being honest about how devastating the fallout from his policies are going to be. But hopefully they will still do what is necessary and stop these financial shenanigans before they go even further. Bring on the collapse now. The sooner it starts, the sooner it will be over with, and the fewer people that will get hurt in the process.

If you allow the ponzi scheme to grow larger, it just hurts that much more when it falls.

Edited by gregb
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my IRAs have already whispered in my ear this week

I would not wait for the whispers to turn to screams ;)

I have said a few times over the last couple of years in the Financial Crisis thread that these years to prep

were a gift. Not a gift given by stupidity such as TARP/QE;s etc.

But because a ship this size does not sink all at once.

But, then, I guess I'm forgetting that Congress, particularly of late, hasn't shown too many smarts.

What time period/decades are you referring to? :)

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I heard an interesting comment on CNN yesterday. Talking about the freshmen congressmen, the tea party guys. They don't owe anything to anybody as they are newbies. And don't seem to really care if they become life long politicians. So they are doing the right thing as opposed to going with the party line. They got elected to deal with the deficit and they are holding to their promises. Great stuff. Congrats guys...and gals....

I don't view it as great stuff.

The market is already beginging to prepare for a US default (businesses raising cash, etc.) so in a way, this brinkman's ship has already caused a default. The US must certainly address its near and long term budget deficits but slasing spending now will only hurt an already fragile economy. Just research the 1937 Roosevelt Recession.

I do agree with one of your statements: The Tea Party congressmen don't care. Sad :unsure:

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Tea party and Republican freshmen are not true to their principles or putting them before their party, they are bunch of Hypocrites, They picked the time when the current president was in office. They could have "stood up and be counted" at anytime in 6 of the 8 years of Dubya Bush was in office control of Congress and the deficit spiralling but hey no . Fighting wars the country cant pay for , extending Tax breaks thats were due to expire , neither of these are in their so called " Principles" for helping the countrys debt. The only thing they want to attack is Health care and Entitlements much of which tax payers have paid into,

Wall Street Journal

The idea seems to be that if the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling, a default crisis or gradual government shutdown will ensue, and the public will turn en masse against . . . Barack Obama. The Republican House that failed to raise the debt ceiling would somehow escape all blame. Then Democrats would have no choice but to pass a balanced-budget amendment and reform entitlements, and the tea-party Hobbits could return to Middle Earth having defeated Mordor.

This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell into GOP Senate nominees. The reality is that the debt limit will be raised one way or another, and the only issue now is with how much fiscal reform and what political fallout.

Edited by KKvampire
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I heard an interesting comment on CNN yesterday. Talking about the freshmen congressmen, the tea party guys. They don't owe anything to anybody as they are newbies. And don't seem to really care if they become life long politicians. So they are doing the right thing as opposed to going with the party line. They got elected to deal with the deficit and they are holding to their promises. Great stuff. Congrats guys...and gals....

I don't view it as great stuff.

The market is already beginging to prepare for a US default (businesses raising cash, etc.) so in a way, this brinkman's ship has already caused a default. The US must certainly address its near and long term budget deficits but slasing spending now will only hurt an already fragile economy. Just research the 1937 Roosevelt Recession.

I do agree with one of your statements: The Tea Party congressmen don't care. Sad :unsure:

Yes, it is amazing these elected officials of ours can not work together and get something done. I 100% agree the debt limit is not the biggest problem. Raise output and things get better quite quickly.

Tea party and Republican freshmen are not true to their principles or putting them before their party, they are bunch of Hypocrites, They picked the time when the current president was in office. They could have "stood up and be counted" at anytime in 6 of the 8 years of Dubya Bush was in office control of Congress and the deficit spiralling but hey no . Fighting wars the country cant pay for , extending Tax breaks thats were due to expire , neither of these are in their so called " Principles" for helping the countrys debt. The only thing they want to attack is Health care and Entitlements much of which tax payers have paid into,

Wall Street Journal

The idea seems to be that if the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling, a default crisis or gradual government shutdown will ensue, and the public will turn en masse against . . . Barack Obama. The Republican House that failed to raise the debt ceiling would somehow escape all blame. Then Democrats would have no choice but to pass a balanced-budget amendment and reform entitlements, and the tea-party Hobbits could return to Middle Earth having defeated Mordor.

This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell into GOP Senate nominees. The reality is that the debt limit will be raised one way or another, and the only issue now is with how much fiscal reform and what political fallout.

Not sure I understand. The freshmen and tea party guys just got elected???? As for the incumbents...you are right on. Been going on for far too long.

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89 hours to go............

I am betting that this will end with the President acting on 14th amendment and to hell with the consequences just like the invasion of Libya.

i would like to make an amendment to my prediction ....he will act on

Homeland Security Presidential Directive-20, one which deals with such trivia as "Catastrophic Emergency" :ph34r:

( i.e. less trouble regarding arguing about the constitutionality :rolleyes: )

he has got such a bag of tricks

Edited by midas
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Surely eliminating waste is one of the first ways to look for savings which should be acted upon now not later?

Ok, pull all funding on the NSF on the first day of default -- even tho' Coborn, who pointed out the waste elements, says there are definitely good aspects to NSF....? Knee-jerk cuts vs. winding down just doesn't seem to be the efficient way to get our federal house in order. And, in fact, the cuts tied to the debt ceiling raise are (or were) to occur over the next 10 years, although some sooner than others. Fortunately, unlike a household, the feds can run on deficit for many years. As long as the folks buying our debt know we are seriously addressing our deficit problem -- and the deficit remains at a reasonable level to GDP -- all is well and good. And, does anyone really believe we'll NOT address our deficit problem -- and make some tough decisions? (Ok, question was not meant for the Tea Party.)

I am sorry JimGant by simply don't agree with your overall assessment.

In any case,NSF it's probably just a small microcosm of a much wider and deeper malaise.

To me it looks like there is still far too much of an " easy come easy go " attitude regarding money within the government. There just doesn't seem to be much

evidence of a desire to knuckle down and really apply fiscal discipline. When I alluded to household budgeting earlier in this thread I did so because not only do you look for areas to save money in a household budget when things get tough but you scrutinise each individual item

of expenditure more carefully. Obama wants a monstrously huge government so surely somewhere within this huge apparatus there must be some people called accountants or auditors? :rolleyes:

And yet here are just two other examples of a shameful waste of money. the Obama administration still regards money the same as confetti and there is just no evidence that people are serious about saving money it's as simple as that :unsure:

Boeing Overcharges Taxpayers By Up To 177,000 Percent :o For Army Helicopter Parts

http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/06/28/256216/boeing-price-gouging-army/

Lost & Unaccounted for in Iraq - $9 billion of US taxpayers' money and $549.7 milion in spare parts shipped in 2004 to US contractors. Also, per ABC News, 190,000 guns, including 110,000 AK-47 rifles.

http://usliberals.about.com/od/homelandsecurit1/a/IraqNumbers.htm

Edited by midas
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Good news darling, they just raised our credit limit.

Good one...but sad. Here's a good one:

They sent my Census form back! AGAIN!!! In response to the question: "Do you have any dependents?" I replied - "12 million illegal immigrants; 3 million crack heads; 42 million unemployable people, 2 million people in over 243 prisons; and 535 more in the U.S. House & Senate. Apparently, this was NOT an acceptable, though totally true answer.
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US government debt is 70% of GDP. Greece is 120% of GDP. The US has a political problem not an immediate financial one it can still borrow at 2%. Greece has to pay 10%.

The US has to reform its tax system and its political system.

It should reduce its Goverment debt to 30 % of GDP within 4 years. It can be done. China, a communist country, is financing the US so the US can buy its products as China is export driven.

China is a creditor country, it was virtually bankrupt in 1979.

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The US Political /Governmental system is based on compromise or gridlock, But many new House Republicans think they were elected not to compromise, And the Senate which voted for raising the debt ceiling dozens of times with a simple majority, but now Republicans demand the 60 two thirds majority,

The Republicans want cuts in domestic spending but not in Defense spending , they want no Revenue increases on the wealthiest , they want the policies of leave everything to the free market except fighting wars overseas(apart from private contracts for some friends)

O yes the Republicans want to make cuts in some government financed programmes, health and entitlements and the Democrats are going to swallow all this? Many won't but maybe they will have to prevent Default, something many of the GOP are not concerned about.playing politics with peoples living standards and creating no new jobs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yeAU7_sZR4

Edited by KKvampire
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Would appear to be an agreement on the table with Obama calling for final vote through Congress later today.

Markets clearly believe its a done deal so hopefully (for now) crisis over. Gold immediately dropped 15 Dollars...

Edited by Chivas
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China, a communist country, is financing the US so the US can buy its products as China is export driven.

China is a creditor country, it was virtually bankrupt in 1979.

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Interesting you cite China as an example of how to “ go with the flow ” ;)

we all heard not so long ago about how dreadful working conditions were at Foxconn………..

“ Foxconn pays its workers according to China’s legal minimum wage, but most make at least double that through constant overtime. Labour activists have been asking for a 50 per cent pay rise. The base monthly salary at the Longhua plant is Rmb950 ($140)

And

” Foxconn, the world's largest maker of computer components which assembles products for Apple, Sony and Nokia, is in the spotlight after a string of suicides of workers at its massive Chinese plants, which some blamed on tough working conditions.”

Well evidently even paying Rmb950 ($140) per month is too much for them..................

Foxconn to replace workers with 1 million robots in 3 years

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-07/30/c_131018764.htm

meanwhile most GM salaried workers in USA earn in excess of $100000 per year.............................. :blink:

Edited by midas
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The article refers to replacing factory workers, not salaried workers. Plus, they don't manufacture cars. Kinda hard to compare the two. And here's their reasoning:

Foxconn, the world's largest maker of computer components which assembles products for Apple, Sony and Nokia, is in the spotlight after a string of suicides of workers at its massive Chinese plants, which some blamed on tough working conditions.

And GM is doing some great work on robots...probably which the Chinese will try and copy the technology:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100205110636.htm

From Wiki:

The first digital and programmable robot was invented by George Devol in 1954 and was ultimately called the Unimate. Devol sold the first Unimate to General Motors in 1960 where it was used to lift pieces of hot metal from die casting machines in a plant in Trenton, New Jersey.
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Heard on one Tele station this morning that the US has already raised the debt limit 140 times since WW11.

Dont know if that meant 140X or times.

Seems the agreement reached is only amoung the leaders and they still have to take it back to their parties to get some sort of a confirmation.

The proposal includes a committee to agree on cuts to ballance a budget to give some sort of decision by November.

Any bets on whether such a committee could come to an agreement?

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The article refers to replacing factory workers, not salaried workers. Plus, they don't manufacture cars. Kinda hard to compare the two. And here's their reasoning:

Foxconn, the world's largest maker of computer components which assembles products for Apple, Sony and Nokia, is in the spotlight after a string of suicides of workers at its massive Chinese plants, which some blamed on tough working conditions.

but what's the difference between an assembly line worker at GM and a " factory worker "? GM assembly line workers are making $73 an hour.

And this is the reason Foxconn have turned to using 1 million robots:-

" The company’s founder Terry Gou broke the news during a “company dance party” this past Friday, saying that the new ‘bots would help reduce rising labor costs and increase efficiency."

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The debt ceiling "deal" is just kicking the can down the road, once again. It's a temporary band-aid. They set this up so it won't be an issue again until *after* the next round of elections in 2012.

A ratings downgrade is still possible. Personally, I a downgrade will happen within 12 months.

PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian: Budget Deal Will Only Bring Short-Term Relief

By IMTIYAZ DELAWALA

WASHINGTON, July 31, 2011

One of the most prominent global investors says that a potential budget deal in Washington will only bring short-term relief, and it won't remove the threat of a U.S. debt downgrade by credit rating agencies.

"I think this compromise will lead to an increase in the debt ceiling, and therefore avoid default," said Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, a global investment firm and one of the world's largest bond investors said today on ABC's "This Week With Christiane Amanpour." "But this relief will be short."

"We have one rating agency out there that said it would downgrade unless certain things happen, and these things are not happening fast enough," El-Erian said of the budget framework being negotiated.

"If the U.S. loses that AAA status, it will be much more difficult for the U.S. to restore growth, so it's unambiguously bad," El-Erian added.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pimco-ceo-mohamed-el-erian-budget-deal-bring/story?id=14199182

Edited by Wrong Turn
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The debt ceiling "deal" is just kicking the can down the road, once again. It's a temporary band-aid. They set this up so it won't be an issue again until *after* the next round of elections in 2012.

A ratings downgrade is still possible. Personally, I a downgrade will happen within 12 months.

PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian: Budget Deal Will Only Bring Short-Term Relief

By IMTIYAZ DELAWALA

WASHINGTON, July 31, 2011

One of the most prominent global investors says that a potential budget deal in Washington will only bring short-term relief, and it won't remove the threat of a U.S. debt downgrade by credit rating agencies.

"I think this compromise will lead to an increase in the debt ceiling, and therefore avoid default," said Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, a global investment firm and one of the world's largest bond investors said today on ABC's "This Week With Christiane Amanpour." "But this relief will be short."

"We have one rating agency out there that said it would downgrade unless certain things happen, and these things are not happening fast enough," El-Erian said of the budget framework being negotiated.

"If the U.S. loses that AAA status, it will be much more difficult for the U.S. to restore growth, so it's unambiguously bad," El-Erian added.

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=14199182

It's like a band-aid on a gunshot wound. The important thing for us all to remember is that we have to sometimes.....well...ok, always....sacrifice the future of the country for the short term re-election viability of those who gave their all in contributing so greatly to the creation of this mess.

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The debt ceiling "deal" is just kicking the can down the road, once again. It's a temporary band-aid. They set this up so it won't be an issue again until *after* the next round of elections in 2012.

A ratings downgrade is still possible. Personally, I a downgrade will happen within 12 months.

PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian: Budget Deal Will Only Bring Short-Term Relief

By IMTIYAZ DELAWALA

WASHINGTON, July 31, 2011

One of the most prominent global investors says that a potential budget deal in Washington will only bring short-term relief, and it won't remove the threat of a U.S. debt downgrade by credit rating agencies.

"I think this compromise will lead to an increase in the debt ceiling, and therefore avoid default," said Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, a global investment firm and one of the world's largest bond investors said today on ABC's "This Week With Christiane Amanpour." "But this relief will be short."

"We have one rating agency out there that said it would downgrade unless certain things happen, and these things are not happening fast enough," El-Erian said of the budget framework being negotiated.

"If the U.S. loses that AAA status, it will be much more difficult for the U.S. to restore growth, so it's unambiguously bad," El-Erian added.

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=14199182

It's like a band-aid on a gunshot wound. The important thing for us all to remember is that we have to sometimes.....well...ok, always....sacrifice the future of the country for the short term re-election viability of those who gave their all in contributing so greatly to the creation of this mess.

More surprising, the debt deal actually cuts almost nothing now--it just promises future cuts that may or may not materialize.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/truth-about-debt-deal-2011-8#ixzz1TmwEzMKr

like trust me i am a politician and i promise to make some cuts :cheesy:

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