Thailand Live Saturday 12 October 2024

[cowslip]

Crisis in Europe and a new government in Thailand - how do you think this will effect pound/baht exchange rates?

[Pib]

What's your guess? Flipping a coin or throwing a dart will probably be just as accurate a method when it comes to FX direction over the short, medium, or long term.

[thaimate]

Actually it could go either way

[Naam]

What's your guess? Flipping a coin or throwing a dart will probably be just as accurate a method when it comes to FX direction over the short, medium, or long term.

what happens if...

[Bakseedaa]

who cares..? lets hope the Thai baht gets srtonger... 30 baht to the pound sounds good... Thailand for Thais..

[Bengt]

who cares..? lets hope the Thai baht gets srtonger... 30 baht to the pound sounds good... Thailand for Thais..

It seems you dont like forenginers in Thailand, 30 THB to a GBP will result in a disaster for the tourism in Thailand!

[12DrinkMore]

who cares..? lets hope the Thai baht gets srtonger... 30 baht to the pound sounds good... Thailand for Thais..

It seems you dont like forenginers in Thailand, 30 THB to a GBP will result in a disaster for the tourism in Thailand!

Not if the EUR stays at 43, the SEK at 4.5, the NOK at 5.46, the CHF at 38 and the AUD at 31 and the Asian currencies stay more or less in line.

The focus has moved from the USD, the EUR to the CHF and back to the EUR. Won't be long before the abysmal UK finances and outlook with the GBP come under scrutiny again. Merv is not interested in expats or tourists heading out of the UK, he wants a weak GBP to boost exports.

Edited August 14, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[nemo38]

If you compare the GBP and USD against more solid currencies, such as the AUD and CHF (Swiss Franc) the GBP and USD have lost half their value over the past few years. This is really in line with the British and US economies tanking.

Many people have money in gold and silver to try to maintain their savings purchase value. I've been trading Gold and Silver and have come out OK. God help those poor savers who are losing out to inflation.

That being said, Thailand gains a lot from tourism. So an expensive Baht punishes Thailand's tourist sector.

[scotinsiam]

If you compare the GBP and USD against more solid currencies, such as the AUD and CHF (Swiss Franc) the GBP and USD have lost half their value over the past few years. This is really in line with the British and US economies tanking.

Many people have money in gold and silver to try to maintain their savings purchase value. I've been trading Gold and Silver and have come out OK. God help those poor savers who are losing out to inflation.

That being said, Thailand gains a lot from tourism. So an expensive Baht punishes Thailand's tourist sector.

Not to mention it's export business which is becoming more uncompetitive with the strength of the Baht - Vietnam looking much more attractive now for business.

[12DrinkMore]

Many people have money in gold and silver to try to maintain their savings purchase value. I've been trading Gold and Silver and have come out OK. God help those poor savers who are losing out to inflation.

That being said, Thailand gains a lot from tourism. So an expensive Baht punishes Thailand's tourist sector.

I don't know how many people have seriously invested in PM's as a hedge. A couple of Maple Leafs doesn't really count, that's just playing. 20 to 30% of net assets is getting more serious. I know very very few people who have invested at this level.

The THB is only looks expensive in the currencies of those countries which have screwed up their economies. As has been pointed out many times, the tourist industry is less than ten percent of the Thai economy. The Scandinavians are continuing to come here in force, a lot of Aussies are now coming here too, and increasingly Malaysians, Singaporeans and the Chinese are visiting Thailand. The US has never really been a huge part of the tourist industry, so that leaves the EURopeans and the Brits, I suppose. And out of the EURopeans, the Germans are doing OK and will still come to Thailand.

Even with the drop from a totally overvalued GBP to the current level, it is still good value to come to Thailand for the Brits.

Not to mention it's export business which is becoming more uncompetitive with the strength of the Baht - Vietnam looking much more attractive now for business.

The Thai economy is chugging along quite nicely at 8% or so growth. A little slowing down would probably be a good thing. Inward investment is climbing and the Bank of Thailand has accumulated huge amounts of forex in an attempt to prevent the THB from appreciating.

This is another imbalance due to intervention by the bankers. IMO they should slowly let the THB appreciate in line with Asian currencies and allow their own standards of living to improve. The West has for too long been living way above its contribution to the global economy on the backs of the Asians and the devastating level of credit it has given itself.

[12DrinkMore]

And as we are discussing the Brits.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/aug/12/10-ways-lost-gained-financial-crisis

The average pension pot at retirement in the UK is only £30,000

30,000 quid? That is peanuts. Over 40 years they have saved less than 750/year.

What sort of income are they going to get from that? 900 Quid/year max?

Presumably they are all expecting to have a "round the world" cruise and then live in "well deserved" luxury for a long retirement, annual two month breaks in the sun obviously. And all on 900 Quid?

You couldn't live a month in Thailand on the annual 45,000 Baht income.

Unless you are one of the parasitic government employees, now 25% of the work force, retirement life after working life is going to be very very grim. And the government employees will be getting a big wake up call as well.

The spend today and bugger tomorrow attitude is coming home on a huge express train.

You see, the sums just don't add up. No matter which way you look at it.

Edited August 14, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[transam]

who cares..? lets hope the Thai baht gets srtonger... 30 baht to the pound sounds good... Thailand for Thais..

What a complete twonk.

[Pib]

What's your guess? Flipping a coin or throwing a dart will probably be just as accurate a method when it comes to FX direction over the short, medium, or long term.

what happens if...

Oh, that means the sterling value goes slideways against the baht...probably the best possible result considering how most western currencies are not fairing well against the baht.

[theoldgit]

It seems you dont like forenginers in Thailand, 30 THB to a GBP will result in a disaster for the tourism in Thailand!

Plenty of tourists coming from India, China, Japan and South Korea and other parts of Asia, the strong Oz Dollar will mean that the tourist numbers from there will also remain high.

I honestly don't they are too concerned over the loss of a few Brits, and in any case those that really want to will still come.

[theoldgit]

Unless you are one of the parasitic government employees, now 25% of the work force, retirement life after working life is going to be very very grim. And the government employees will be getting a big wake up call as well.

So you're not a retired Civil Servant on an index linked pension then?

[el jefe]

I think this is a first. I agree completely with what 12DrinkMore more has to say here and in Post #11. Usually he's had too much to drink.

As for the OP's question, "how do you think this will effect pound/baht exchange rates?" I can say with 100% accuracy that it will fluctuate.

If the Thai govt and the UK and most other western govts continue with the same policies as in the past 10 years, it's almost certain that the baht will be higher in the future. A slow rise would benefit everyone except, of course, those expats who can't really afford to be here anyway.

Many people have money in gold and silver to try to maintain their savings purchase value. I've been trading Gold and Silver and have come out OK. God help those poor savers who are losing out to inflation.

That being said, Thailand gains a lot from tourism. So an expensive Baht punishes Thailand's tourist sector.

I don't know how many people have seriously invested in PM's as a hedge. A couple of Maple Leafs doesn't really count, that's just playing. 20 to 30% of net assets is getting more serious. I know very very few people who have invested at this level.

The THB is only looks expensive in the currencies of those countries which have screwed up their economies. As has been pointed out many times, the tourist industry is less than ten percent of the Thai economy. The Scandinavians are continuing to come here in force, a lot of Aussies are now coming here too, and increasingly Malaysians, Singaporeans and the Chinese are visiting Thailand. The US has never really been a huge part of the tourist industry, so that leaves the EURopeans and the Brits, I suppose. And out of the EURopeans, the Germans are doing OK and will still come to Thailand.

Even with the drop from a totally overvalued GBP to the current level, it is still good value to come to Thailand for the Brits.

Not to mention it's export business which is becoming more uncompetitive with the strength of the Baht - Vietnam looking much more attractive now for business.

The Thai economy is chugging along quite nicely at 8% or so growth. A little slowing down would probably be a good thing. Inward investment is climbing and the Bank of Thailand has accumulated huge amounts of forex in an attempt to prevent the THB from appreciating.

This is another imbalance due to intervention by the bankers. IMO they should slowly let the THB appreciate in line with Asian currencies and allow their own standards of living to improve. The West has for too long been living way above its contribution to the global economy on the backs of the Asians and the devastating level of credit it has given itself.

[zabaleta]

who cares..? lets hope the Thai baht gets srtonger... 30 baht to the pound sounds good... Thailand for Thais..

What a complete twonk.

yes,i think that was penned by a local male!!

going back to the original post,...can't see the british pound rising against any currency until the uk interest rate starts to rise.

so anyone hoping for a decent rise in the value of the british pound in the near future shouldn't hold their breath as interest rates are forecast to stay extremely low until mid 2013.(financial times aug 2011)and the FT certainly knows it's stuff!!

Edited August 14, 2011 by zabaleta

[Bizz]

Crisis in Europe and a new government in Thailand - how do you think this will effect pound/baht exchange rates?

Europe will get worse there is approx 50bil hidden in local government deaths in Spain.

Italy is a mess and will be like Greece to turn to austerity to many freebies to much corruption.

US is smothered in depth really smothered there is no way to repay the mountain and as long as the US intervenes in every single conflict with nations in this little world and with 150+ oversees installations +86 we do not or are not given privy to secret sites with at least 200 specialists. yes in each cost i think that's 172 bil just for living ie salary end of month bobs.

We can find very easy the wastage and unnecessary expenditure in the spending ,who is really giving a sh**.

the Euro is or has stayed in a narrow range between 41-44 baht for nearly 6-8 months.

the dollar$ will rise temporary for next 1-2 months but there is a big fall coming any one think the drop last week was it is in for a big surprise next month September end.

The UK is loosing its prominence in this world loosing its oil north sea loosing its identity,balance of payments are a disaster. OK BP is drilling in Shetland and says there are upwards of 450mil barrels there so what.

Now Ireland, Ireland is fuc***????????? at the moment but there is light at the end of the tunnel we have one of the biggest coastlines in Europe and huge quantities of oil and gas not even discovered how do I know this well I was on many of the exploitory rigs that looked at sub sea data to see. Yes the future is Rosie for Ireland Mr Cameron even lent us $500000000 well 5 bil could never count the norths.We were lucky we kicked ourselves in the ass at the start of this mess and applied austerity.

So the answer to your question yes the pound will fall so to will the Euro the Euro will get a kick in the ass in October early November and hey presto the pound tries to keep up but there is turmoil in Westminster in early November .

And now from my ramblings.

Was reading this article today and as I am only in my 50tees and have no memories except those that these people relate to us and our ineptitude I ask you to read and reflect on your own self.

Real lives: 'That anyone survived Auschwitz is a miracle. Yet I am here'

By Louette Harding

As a teenage girl, Lily Ebert endured unimaginable horrors in the notorious Auschwitz concentration camp. Here, she tells Louette Harding about the traumas she can never forget – and of her incredible struggle for survival

Lily today, at her home in Golders Green, North London

Lily today, at her home in Golders Green, North London

My link

Edited August 14, 2011 by Bizz

[Naam]

Lily today, at her home in Golders Green, North London

where can i find the part where Lily forecasts GBP THB exchange rate?

[PattayaPhom]

And as we are discussing the Brits.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/aug/12/10-ways-lost-gained-financial-crisis

The average pension pot at retirement in the UK is only £30,000

30,000 quid? That is peanuts. Over 40 years they have saved less than 750/year.

What sort of income are they going to get from that? 900 Quid/year max?

Presumably they are all expecting to have a "round the world" cruise and then live in "well deserved" luxury for a long retirement, annual two month breaks in the sun obviously. And all on 900 Quid?

You couldn't live a month in Thailand on the annual 45,000 Baht income.

Unless you are one of the parasitic government employees, now 25% of the work force, retirement life after working life is going to be very very grim. And the government employees will be getting a big wake up call as well.

The spend today and bugger tomorrow attitude is coming home on a huge express train.

You see, the sums just don't add up. No matter which way you look at it.

₤30,000 even at todays annuity rates will get appox ₤2,500 p.a if OMO is taken on a level,5 year gaurantee single in arrears so although not great is over double your guesstimate...also ₤750 40 years ago was a years salary and more.

[12DrinkMore]

₤30,000 even at todays annuity rates will get appox ₤2,500 p.a if OMO is taken on a level,5 year gaurantee single in arrears so although not great is over double your guesstimate...also ₤750 40 years ago was a years salary and more.

Well, the best I found was about 2,300 if the "level" is selected. And at the current rate of central bank created inflation it won't take long before that is worth very little. Taking a 3% increment option and the amount drops radically to around 1,800 Quid, or 30 quid/week.

If I was taking this route, I would start smoking, put on a lot of weight and get the blood pressure up. Rates are much better.....

But that was not really the point I was making, the real issue is that through overspending and government failure to make thrift and savings attractive the amount of pension provisions is incredibly small, it'll mean noses to the grindwheels a lot longer than people expect.

[12DrinkMore]

But back to the original post.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-14/sterling-proving-no-refuge-as-king-eyes-stimulus-while-gilt-yields-plunge.html

So all other things being equal, which they never are, maybe looking at 44 by the year end?

[Pib]

But back to the original post.

http://www.bloomberg...lds-plunge.html

So all other things being equal, which they never are, maybe looking at 44 by the year end?

Flip the coin again and it may indicate 54 by the year end. But seriously, the trend sure seems to indicate a downward trend for many western currencies.

[fletchsmile]

Over mid-long term. Considering USD/EUR/GBP vs THB

USD depreciating

EUR depreciating

GBP depreciating (though not as bad as USD and EUR)

So =>THB appreciating

Short term will be a roller coaster ride as ever. Every time there's a panic people will tend to USD, but each time less and less so. The USD is still seen by many as a "safe haven" but many people are waking up to the fact it's nowhere near as safe as it used to be, and the trend will continue.

A few years back, I used to have 1/3 of my wealth in THB, 1/3 where I come from and 1/3 in others (SGD being largest). These days, I feel more comfortable with 40-50% THB, 25% where I come from, and the balance in other currencies and some exposure to gold.

For people with the mantra "don't bring money into Thailand", unless they're in the HNW or UHNW brackets, they need to be asking "can they afford not to bring money into Thailand if they want to continue living here?"

[flying]

For people with the mantra "don't bring money into Thailand", unless they're in the HNW or UHNW brackets, they need to be asking "can they afford not to bring money into Thailand if they want to continue living here?"

+1

For folks that live in another country it is rather crazy not to have a few years expenses in the currency of those expenses already on hand.

Of course there are those that live month to month on retirement pensions & may have no alternative to exchange monthly.

It is those that will feel it the most.

[Naam]

fletchsmile, on Yesterday, 21:50 , said:

For people with the mantra "don't bring money into Thailand", unless they're in the HNW or UHNW brackets, they need to be asking "can they afford not to bring money into Thailand if they want to continue living here?"

you don't have to bring money to Thailand and deal with an archaic banking system, trust a broker and pay income tax if you want to hedge your THB expenses. that can be done easily offshore.

[Bizz]

fletchsmile, on Yesterday, 21:50 , said:

For people with the mantra "don't bring money into Thailand", unless they're in the HNW or UHNW brackets, they need to be asking "can they afford not to bring money into Thailand if they want to continue living here?"

you don't have to bring money to Thailand and deal with an archaic banking system, trust a broker and pay income tax if you want to hedge your THB expenses. that can be done easily offshore.

Naam in reply I felt sad when I read it . I was browsing business insider pooped up.Forwarded to link

I stumble over the words "Man's inhumanity to man." I do not wish to travel down this road as I do not feel strong enough.

There is concerns with Euro bond.

[cowslip]

Many people have money in gold and silver to try to maintain their savings purchase value. I've been trading Gold and Silver and have come out OK. God help those poor savers who are losing out to inflation.

That being said, Thailand gains a lot from tourism. So an expensive Baht punishes Thailand's tourist sector.

I don't know how many people have seriously invested in PM's as a hedge. A couple of Maple Leafs doesn't really count, that's just playing. 20 to 30% of net assets is getting more serious. I know very very few people who have invested at this level.

The THB is only looks expensive in the currencies of those countries which have screwed up their economies. As has been pointed out many times, the tourist industry is less than ten percent of the Thai economy. The Scandinavians are continuing to come here in force, a lot of Aussies are now coming here too, and increasingly Malaysians, Singaporeans and the Chinese are visiting Thailand. The US has never really been a huge part of the tourist industry, so that leaves the EURopeans and the Brits, I suppose. And out of the EURopeans, the Germans are doing OK and will still come to Thailand.

Even with the drop from a totally overvalued GBP to the current level, it is still good value to come to Thailand for the Brits.

Not to mention it's export business which is becoming more uncompetitive with the strength of the Baht - Vietnam looking much more attractive now for business.

It is debateable whether or not 8% is "good" for a new economy - Thailand is probably underperforming by 2 to 4% due to incompetence and corruption.

"Old" economies however are fine if they get around 3%.

One factor is the shear size of the old economies compared to emerging ones.

however to see currencies in term of %age growth is not very helpful - a lot depends on the whim of the markets and how they d=see this as a return on their investment.

Sterling is indeed linked to the Euro which in turn has problems, but the baht has a new government and it remains to be seen how they are regarded by the international money markets - I think they may well make some decisions that give the markets the jitters.

The Thai economy is chugging along quite nicely at 8% or so growth. A little slowing down would probably be a good thing. Inward investment is climbing and the Bank of Thailand has accumulated huge amounts of forex in an attempt to prevent the THB from appreciating.

This is another imbalance due to intervention by the bankers. IMO they should slowly let the THB appreciate in line with Asian currencies and allow their own standards of living to improve. The West has for too long been living way above its contribution to the global economy on the backs of the Asians and the devastating level of credit it has given itself.

[cowslip]

Many people have money in gold and silver to try to maintain their savings purchase value. I've been trading Gold and Silver and have come out OK. God help those poor savers who are losing out to inflation.

That being said, Thailand gains a lot from tourism. So an expensive Baht punishes Thailand's tourist sector.

I don't know how many people have seriously invested in PM's as a hedge. A couple of Maple Leafs doesn't really count, that's just playing. 20 to 30% of net assets is getting more serious. I know very very few people who have invested at this level.

The THB is only looks expensive in the currencies of those countries which have screwed up their economies. As has been pointed out many times, the tourist industry is less than ten percent of the Thai economy. The Scandinavians are continuing to come here in force, a lot of Aussies are now coming here too, and increasingly Malaysians, Singaporeans and the Chinese are visiting Thailand. The US has never really been a huge part of the tourist industry, so that leaves the EURopeans and the Brits, I suppose. And out of the EURopeans, the Germans are doing OK and will still come to Thailand.

Even with the drop from a totally overvalued GBP to the current level, it is still good value to come to Thailand for the Brits.

Not to mention it's export business which is becoming more uncompetitive with the strength of the Baht - Vietnam looking much more attractive now for business.

It is debateable whether or not 8% is "good" for a new economy - Thailand is probably underperforming by 2 to 4% due to incompetence and corruption.

"Old" economies however are fine if they get around 3%.

One factor is the shear size of the old economies compared to emerging ones.

however to see currencies in term of %age growth is not very helpful - a lot depends on the whim of the markets and how they d=see this as a return on their investment.

Sterling is indeed linked to the Euro which in turn has problems, but the baht has a new government and it remains to be seen how they are regarded by the international money markets - I think they may well make some decisions that give the markets the jitters.

The Thai economy is chugging along quite nicely at 8% or so growth. A little slowing down would probably be a good thing. Inward investment is climbing and the Bank of Thailand has accumulated huge amounts of forex in an attempt to prevent the THB from appreciating.

This is another imbalance due to intervention by the bankers. IMO they should slowly let the THB appreciate in line with Asian currencies and allow their own standards of living to improve. The West has for too long been living way above its contribution to the global economy on the backs of the Asians and the devastating level of credit it has given itself.

[cowslip]

"The Thai economy is chugging along quite nicely at 8% or so growth."

It is debatable whether or not 8% is "good" for a new economy - Thailand is probably underperforming by 2 to 4% due to incompetence and corruption.

"Old" economies however are fine if they get around 3%.

One factor is the shear size of the old economies compared to emerging ones.

however to see currencies in term of %age growth is not very helpful - a lot depends on the whim of the markets and how they d=see this as a return on their investment. yet this highrate also lays it open to inflation. Are the Thai authorities equipped to deal with this?

Sterling is indeed linked to the Euro which in turn has problems, but the baht has a new government and it remains to be seen how they are regarded by the international money markets - I think they may well make some decisions that give the markets the jitters.

Tourism in Thailand accounts for 7% GDP

Despite developing their home markets - SEA relies heavily on the west to buy their products - any inability to do so will be reflected in their own economies.

as for the US - well they now have some of the lowest taxation rates since the 60s - successive govts have bowed to calls for lower taxes in order to get elected.....so when they got in they simply borrowed to cover the shortfall from the taxpayer - now that has come to the inevitable crunch.

THe countrues in Europe with the biggest problems are the ones who were lax in collecting taxes. You can't run a country on fresh air - Thailand take note!

Edited August 16, 2011 by cowslip