Pheu Thai Financier Payap Ready To Back Thaksin Pardon Petition

[hammered]

I wonder if they got 2 million names so as to slip Thaksin's name somewhere in the middle and hopefully go unnoticed. The gall of this new government is just unreal and shameless. It looks to me like they are setting themselves up to have absolute control above and beyond any laws.

Not if but when Thaksin gets a pardon it will mean that all this protestation will have to stop. Not going to criticise the pardon decision are we boys. The sooner he comes home the better bored with all this criticising. Starting to sound like the one track Dems Foreign Policy.

If/when Thaksin returns the whole episode is over, and a lot of ordinary people will be happy and not just reds either but that so called silent "majority" who just want the conflict to go away and everything to return to "normal". That is the problem for the Dems side, the silent group just want it all to go away and when/if it does it leaves only the extreme anti-Thaksinistas and anyone the Dems can whip into a frenzy of hatred in their southern fiefdom who will care, but then again if/when the man does return all those silentistas wont be too happy if the Dems try a whipping up of anything so maybe they will just have to accept it too

I say when/if as I am not so certain that there wont be a weirdity to derail government

Am I right in thinking you're in the sticks, Hammered? Am sure if you are the whole pardon thing will go completely unnoticed there. Business as usual, so to speak.

I don't have a fraction of that optimism for life here in the city however.

Im in previously quite yellow but swung to the red in more recent years and mostly had enough of it all Chonburi and I also spend a fair deal of time in the dems flirted with it unsuccesfully in most cases soft red lower north

There are basically two ways it all ends:

1. Thaksin returns unfettered

2. Thaksin loses an election

The Dems and mates just tried number two and failed, so now it is over to number one attempts which will either succeed and end the conflict or will fail and leave us back to trying number two again which if it fails brings us back to number one again. Also only number really has any deal potential

Edited to add: I may be wrong but I would also have seriously thought a legislative amnesty rather than pardon would have been the real route chosen and may still be. After all it is less controversial and has been used by coup makers in the past which sets a huggy touchy feely kind of lets forgive ourselves precedent

Edited September 7, 2011 by hammered

[Insight]

Im in previously quite yellow but swung to the red in more recent years and mostly had enough of it all Chonburi and I also spend a fair deal of time in the dems flirted with it unsuccesfully in most cases soft red lower north

There are basically two ways it all ends:

1. Thaksin returns unfettered

2. Thaksin loses an election

The Dems and mates just tried number two and failed, so now it is over to number one attempts which will either succeed and end the conflict or will fail and leave us back to trying number two again which if it fails brings us back to number one again. Also only number really has any deal potential

Edited to add: I may be wrong but I would also have seriously thought a legislative amnesty rather than pardon would have been the real route chosen and may still be. After all it is less controversial and has been used by coup makers in the past which sets a huggy touchy feely kind of lets forgive ourselves precedent

Your commentary has always remained relatively neutral, there's no question of that. Dems had their chance and pretty much blew it (although Mrs Insight points some blame towards the PAD for this, launching their silly, borderline childish "vote no" campaign rather than get behind then Dems for a common cause).

But PT are not making any attempt whatsoever to reach out to the disaffected here. Quite the opposite, in fact - reigniting this "pardon" campaign is a perfect example. In my opinion within the city things could get very volatile if they continue to push (but am also wondering if this is actually what they're after....?).

Frankly the only reason I'm following the situation now is to keep a forecast on stability. The people who can make a difference are clearly not interested in reconciliation, or making an effort towards change which would benefit the masses. It's mainly because of this I'm no longer as enthusiastic about Thailand as I used to be. Sad, but that's the way they are...

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[Ricardo]

Well if former judge and justice minister Pirapan (democrat party), said that Payap's signature would have qualified the petition under the criminal code, then Im sure the PTP wont argue with that

"would have qualified", except that Payap didn't sign, according to the OP.

[OZEMADE]

Thaksin Shinawatra claims that all charges against him are politically motivated and he is innocent.

If he is innocent, why did he flee the country?

If he is innocent, how can he be pardoned?

If he is guilty as charged, then how can he be pardoned if he does not serve his sentence?

Surely some remorse and regret must be shown by the subject of the pardon petition?

Simple questions. Any simple answers?

1. He was booted out by the military, not by the people or by an election. So the charges were probably military motivated.

2. He fled because he knew he would not get a fair trial and the Government installed by the military would have had to sentence him to keep the military happy.

3. He was found guilty of a land deal and sentenced to 2 yrs, so he has to be pardoned under these circumstances.

4. I believe under Thai law, you do not have to serve any time to be pardoned.

5. Remorse and regret for what, especially if he is found later on to have been falsely charged and sentenced.

[Ricardo]

2. He fled because he knew he would not get a fair trial and the Government installed by the military would have had to sentence him to keep the military happy.

Check your facts, the elected-government in power, when he was tried & sentenced, was his own party PPP, with his brother-in-law as PM.

[hammered]

Well if former judge and justice minister Pirapan (democrat party), said that Payap's signature would have qualified the petition under the criminal code, then Im sure the PTP wont argue with that

"would have qualified", except that Payap didn't sign, according to the OP.

But if he does, or he confirms that it was his name, then using the Dem ministers own arguement the thing can move forward. My guess is that they will still go for the tried and tested legislative amnesty

It is a very common tactic of PTP/Thaksin/reds to use the arguements or tried tactics of their opponents as it if they are denied/dont work it amplifies the double standards claim. This also makes it difficult for their opponents to deny PTP when these things happen.

[hammered]

Im in previously quite yellow but swung to the red in more recent years and mostly had enough of it all Chonburi and I also spend a fair deal of time in the dems flirted with it unsuccesfully in most cases soft red lower north

There are basically two ways it all ends:

1. Thaksin returns unfettered

2. Thaksin loses an election

The Dems and mates just tried number two and failed, so now it is over to number one attempts which will either succeed and end the conflict or will fail and leave us back to trying number two again which if it fails brings us back to number one again. Also only number really has any deal potential

Edited to add: I may be wrong but I would also have seriously thought a legislative amnesty rather than pardon would have been the real route chosen and may still be. After all it is less controversial and has been used by coup makers in the past which sets a huggy touchy feely kind of lets forgive ourselves precedent

Your commentary has always remained relatively neutral, there's no question of that. Dems had their chance and pretty much blew it (although Mrs Insight points some blame towards the PAD for this, launching their silly, borderline childish "vote no" campaign rather than get behind then Dems for a common cause).

But PT are not making any attempt whatsoever to reach out to the disaffected here. Quite the opposite, in fact - reigniting this "pardon" campaign is a perfect example. In my opinion within the city things could get very volatile if they continue to push (but am also wondering if this is actually what they're after....?).

Frankly the only reason I'm following the situation now is to keep a forecast on stability. The people who can make a difference are clearly not interested in reconciliation, or making an effort towards change which would benefit the masses. It's mainly because of this I'm no longer as enthusiastic about Thailand as I used to be. Sad, but that's the way they are...

It seems to me that it has now been cranked top a level of there will be no peace without Thaksins return and he has enough support on the ground to make this undeniable to even his enemies. The whole thing now is likely to be around return and/or on what terms and within what timeframe. The Bangkok Post even intimated it was about timing a few weeks back. The Democrats dont seem to know what to do on the electoral stuff and that is before this government has even managed to launch an investigation into April/May, discovered or released the data on the massive debt funded programs of the Dems or found any corruption. To date they havent even attacked the Dems and that in itself probably exposes how little concern they have over the threat the dems pose. All in all it isnt good as the whole 5 years of chaos has resulted in it seems only one party being electable, loads of conflict and deaths, checks and balances in tatters and not trusted by many, an opposition party in denial. In retrospect the coup has ended up creating those who launched its biggest nightmare and probably one far worse than what it actually removed

Before the election Michael Connors wrote a piece on his blog that I think outlined the main issues and is still relevant. One critical piece was that if Thaksin gained enough seats to form a coalition (he exceeded this in reality) then the increasingly anti-democratic and authoritarian means needed to keep him away would likely split the alliance formed in support of the 2006 coup with those who genuinely thought the coup could create a return to a more liberal democracy would no longer be able to support these methods.

[whybother]

If/when Thaksin returns the whole episode is over, and a lot of ordinary people will be happy and not just reds either but that so called silent "majority" who just want the conflict to go away and everything to return to "normal". That is the problem for the Dems side, the silent group just want it all to go away and when/if it does it leaves only the extreme anti-Thaksinistas and anyone the Dems can whip into a frenzy of hatred in their southern fiefdom who will care, but then again if/when the man does return all those silentistas wont be too happy if the Dems try a whipping up of anything so maybe they will just have to accept it too

I say when/if as I am not so certain that there wont be a weirdity to derail government

You're being a bit naive if you think that the whole episode will be over or the conflict will go away if Thaksin returns. It will just be back to the beginning.

[hammered]

If/when Thaksin returns the whole episode is over, and a lot of ordinary people will be happy and not just reds either but that so called silent "majority" who just want the conflict to go away and everything to return to "normal". That is the problem for the Dems side, the silent group just want it all to go away and when/if it does it leaves only the extreme anti-Thaksinistas and anyone the Dems can whip into a frenzy of hatred in their southern fiefdom who will care, but then again if/when the man does return all those silentistas wont be too happy if the Dems try a whipping up of anything so maybe they will just have to accept it too

I say when/if as I am not so certain that there wont be a weirdity to derail government

You're being a bit naive if you think that the whole episode will be over or the conflict will go away if Thaksin returns. It will just be back to the beginning.

No it wont. It will be either a deal has been worked out or Thaksin has won, probably the former. If he can come back that means the whole 5 year plan to break him and then leave him in exile has failed and that those who launched it have either accepted this and worked out a deal or they have been defeated. To defeat Thaksin necessitates beating his party in an election. That seems the least likely outcome of all

[rixalex]

You're being a bit naive if you think that the whole episode will be over or the conflict will go away if Thaksin returns. It will just be back to the beginning.

No it wont. It will be either a deal has been worked out or Thaksin has won, probably the former. If he can come back that means the whole 5 year plan to break him and then leave him in exile has failed and that those who launched it have either accepted this and worked out a deal or they have been defeated. To defeat Thaksin necessitates beating his party in an election. That seems the least likely outcome of all

When you speak about a deal being done, you speak as if it is all neat and tidy, with Thaksin on one side, and all the "anti-Thaksin" together, on the other. I think the situation is a lot more complex than that. There are so many different factions involved, and all have the power to kick up a stink; create trouble. I can't envisage a deal being done in which all factions, and indeed all parts of society, will feel satisfied enough to simply sit back and accept after all that has happened, Thaksin returning. At the very least, there will be one group that takes to the streets; one group whose feelings will not be suppressed by inducement or intimidation. And it won't be pretty.

[hammered]

You're being a bit naive if you think that the whole episode will be over or the conflict will go away if Thaksin returns. It will just be back to the beginning.

No it wont. It will be either a deal has been worked out or Thaksin has won, probably the former. If he can come back that means the whole 5 year plan to break him and then leave him in exile has failed and that those who launched it have either accepted this and worked out a deal or they have been defeated. To defeat Thaksin necessitates beating his party in an election. That seems the least likely outcome of all

When you speak about a deal being done, you speak as if it is all neat and tidy, with Thaksin on one side, and all the "anti-Thaksin" together, on the other. I think the situation is a lot more complex than that. There are so many different factions involved, and all have the power to kick up a stink; create trouble. I can't envisage a deal being done in which all factions, and indeed all parts of society, will feel satisfied enough to simply sit back and accept after all that has happened, Thaksin returning. At the very least, there will be one group that takes to the streets; one group whose feelings will not be suppressed by inducement or intimidation. And it won't be pretty.

In February Crispin spoke of a deal. Of course not everyone will be satisfied but they dont need to be. There arent many players in this who can veto things, and the reality is that there is no settlement without resolving the Thaksin issue.

[Insight]

You're being a bit naive if you think that the whole episode will be over or the conflict will go away if Thaksin returns. It will just be back to the beginning.

No it wont. It will be either a deal has been worked out or Thaksin has won, probably the former. If he can come back that means the whole 5 year plan to break him and then leave him in exile has failed and that those who launched it have either accepted this and worked out a deal or they have been defeated. To defeat Thaksin necessitates beating his party in an election. That seems the least likely outcome of all

When you speak about a deal being done, you speak as if it is all neat and tidy, with Thaksin on one side, and all the "anti-Thaksin" together, on the other. I think the situation is a lot more complex than that. There are so many different factions involved, and all have the power to kick up a stink; create trouble. I can't envisage a deal being done in which all factions, and indeed all parts of society, will feel satisfied enough to simply sit back and accept after all that has happened, Thaksin returning. At the very least, there will be one group that takes to the streets; one group whose feelings will not be suppressed by inducement or intimidation. And it won't be pretty.

In February Crispin spoke of a deal. Of course not everyone will be satisfied but they dont need to be. There arent many players in this who can veto things, and the reality is that there is no settlement without resolving the Thaksin issue.

If some sort of deal had been reached would the Democrats still be so vocal in opposition...? They're constantly being associated with the "elite" and "old guard", so following this propaganda surely one would expect them to tow the line...?

Regardless, apparently there's a demo against amnesty for Thaksin at Lumpini park tomorrow 4.30pm. If this info is correct I imagine it will be the first of many.

[rixalex]

In February Crispin spoke of a deal. Of course not everyone will be satisfied but they dont need to be. There arent many players in this who can veto things, and the reality is that there is no settlement without resolving the Thaksin issue.

I agree that there is no settlement without resolving the Thaksin issue. I disagree that there exists a scenario in which Thaksin returns and the Thaksin issue is resolved - at least on the minimum terms we know he would insist upon that return.

[animatic]

I wonder if they got 2 million names so as to slip Thaksin's name somewhere in the middle and hopefully go unnoticed. The gall of this new government is just unreal and shameless. It looks to me like they are setting themselves up to have absolute control above and beyond any laws.

Not if but when Thaksin gets a pardon it will mean that all this protestation will have to stop. Not going to criticise the pardon decision are we boys. The sooner he comes home the better bored with all this criticising. Starting to sound like the one track Dems Foreign Policy.

If/when Thaksin returns the whole episode is over, and a lot of ordinary people will be happy and not just reds either but that so called silent "majority" who just want the conflict to go away and everything to return to "normal". That is the problem for the Dems side, the silent group just want it all to go away and when/if it does it leaves only the extreme anti-Thaksinistas and anyone the Dems can whip into a frenzy of hatred in their southern fiefdom who will care, but then again if/when the man does return all those silentistas wont be too happy if the Dems try a whipping up of anything so maybe they will just have to accept it too

I say when/if as I am not so certain that there wont be a weirdity to derail government

"If/when Thaksin returns the whole episode is over"

The problem is he will not just return and pretend all is fine.

His history shows he goes for the jugular of all enemies no matter from how far back, and has a very long term memory. If this would all just GO away and STAY away, we might be able to say this is how it will turn out; Nice and peaceful return to normalcy. But history doesn't give any real sense that this can be the future.

It's not likely a frenzied Dems hatred causing the real intrinsic problems, but grasping avarice, and need to make/gain/regain face, with no checks and balances, that will prove the real straw on the camel that is Thailand society and political world. Moderation in all things is unheard of, because those that act moderately usually lose to those with no scruples to stop when they've won the day.

Edited September 8, 2011 by animatic

[moe666]

The Thai people voted for this mess let them live with it. Even though a minority carried the day the majority will pay even his supporters.

[MaiChai]

What I am interested in is how long the Thai public will put up with the twisting and manipulating by certain powerful figures to get whatever they want. Its seems to me that ethics and morals have been totally abandoned in Thailand and no one has them anymore. Its just a total degeneration of society. I am all right jack, I have loads of money and sod everyone else. I can't believe society has so degenerated so low. The government don't even have to attempt to hide it and everyone accepts it. How long can this go on?

[Buchholz]

What I am interested in is how long the Thai public will put up with the twisting and manipulating by certain powerful figures to get whatever they want. Its seems to me that ethics and morals have been totally abandoned in Thailand and no one has them anymore. Its just a total degeneration of society. I am all right jack, I have loads of money and sod everyone else. I can't believe society has so degenerated so low. The government don't even have to attempt to hide it and everyone accepts it. How long can this go on?

for at least...

Thaksin remains confident that TRT will rule for 20 years

BANGKOK: Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra remains confident that his Thai Rak Thai Party will remain in power for at least 20 years