Bangkok In For 1-Metre Flooding, Says Expert

[george]

Bangkok in for 1-metre flooding, says expert

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation October 27, 2011 12:59 pm

BANGKOK: -- A Dutch expert on flooding, Adri Verwey, said yesterday the worst case scenario for Bangkok was that "extensive areas" of the capital could be submerged under more than one metre of water, if dykes are breached in many areas.

Verwey, who was sent by the government of the Netherlands to assist the Thai government warned that Sukhumvit and other low-lying areas are especially prone - though it will take days for the water to reach inner Bangkok.

"The levy is very important," he told The Nation and a small group of foreign journalists at Flood Relief Operation Centre (FROC) in Don Mueang airport which itself is now being visited by some flood water.

Verway said this coming weekend would be "most crucial" with the expected strong tide. "I pity the Thai people," he said, adding that a lot of tasks will be awaiting the Kingdom in the recovery process. "You have this failure already, you can expect quite a few more."

Another foreign expert working with FROC, who asked to remain anonymous, urged the government to speak the truth to the public.

"They want to say sweet things instead of the truth," the expert said.

He added however that some politicians were not really trying to help reduce the impact of the flood.

"Some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government," he said, adding the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was now meeting with a lot of opposition.

Given such a situation, said the anonymous expert, Thailand is like a "dysfunctional family".

"Honestly, they need to get together and get a real, defined plan of what’s going on. That’s not what’s happening."

-- The Nation 2011-10-27

[serenitynow]

If she "Is Now Meeting With A Lot Of Opposition", it would seem to imply that the "some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government" people are her own. Certainly it is they without a plan. So, what's the game here?

[MAJIC]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

[satiariyan]

Am I the only one who think this dutch expert sounds poorly informed about the actual situation? Apparently, he doesn't think the river will overflow much, nor that there are areas near the river much more prone for flooding - upto 2 meter according to another expert, who does sound a bit more knowledgeable about Bangkoks specialties.

Edited October 26, 2011 by satiariyan

[peecee]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

[thaiedward]

Where can one find the most recently updated flood-maps showing all of Bangkok's districts?

Thank you.

[croftrobin]

http://203.150.230.27/FloodMap/

[shawndoc]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

Hanlon's razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

[roamer]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

Hanlon's razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

:clap2:

[TechnikaIII]

For what it's worth, I know for a fact that Bangkok has been high on the discussion agenda amongst flood management experts in the Netherlands. I contacted a Dutch engineer friend (one of them) weeks ago about the long term prognosis for Thailand. This I did because I had then taken my first serious look the topographical maps of the Bangkok area, and with a view to rising see levels, one can see that many of the beaches in the bay area will have to give way to water defences. On the phone, I put the idea to him, that if Bangkok will exist at all, a massive rebuild of the dyke system, at the expense of the beaches, will have to have to start soon. Knowing exactly what I was talking about, he simply said: "Absolutely".

If Sasin Chalermlarp has been snubbed for so long, you can only imagine the presssure someone must have been under to accept the engagement of a foreign expert.

If you have not already, I suggest you connect with Sasin Chalermlarp on Facebook, and if you don't understand the Thai language, get someone who does and follow his posts. You can also follow him on youtube. But you will need to copy his name in Thai into the youtube search field once there.

_{Sasin Chalermlarp > ศศิน เฉลิมลาภ}

[David48]

It is great that the government has some independent expert advice from a foreign expert.

Also this can be a very subtle ploy to allow the foreigners to announce the difficult news while the government can be shown in a better light by emphasising their relief and humanitarian work.

Unfortunately the article then starts to sink in credibility because another 'foreign expert' who is anomous makes claims which could only be described as inflammatory.

Who ever this 'foreign expert' is has a good grasp of Thai Culture because of his use of the term "sweet things" or subtly say that the government spokesperson has a "sweet mouth" or pak wan.

Unfortunately the quote "Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was now meeting with a lot of opposition" could be interpreted many ways because the subject of the sentence was left to the readers own particular bias.

Was it 'opposition' to

• her plans for flood relief?
• her plans to save Bangkok?
• her plans then to flood Bangkok?

Or was it that she was meeting with 'opposition' politicians in an effort to have a more unified approach and not to act like a "dysfunctional family"

Edited October 26, 2011 by David48

[wlcart]

Dutch, Thai, Eastern, Western makes no difference, it is mother nature will decide herself. The only thing I know is no one knows as I prepare for the worse and hope for the best.

[jpinx]

If she "Is Now Meeting With A Lot Of Opposition", it would seem to imply that the "some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government" people are her own. Certainly it is they without a plan. So, what's the game here?

flawed logic dude -- Opposition can come from anywhere -- any deduction you make is based on your own perceptions and not reality (unless you are in amongst it)

[TechnikaIII]

http://203.150.230.27/FloodMap/

Thanks

[David48]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

Hanlon's razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

That was a great quote ... spot on :jap:

In Australia we suffered from the same commercially based thinking.

From 2003 Australia was in the grip of a prolonged drought affecting the water supplies to the capital cities and much of the arable farmland.

When the rains came in 2009, we were loathed to waste this precious resource and stored as much as we could in our system of dams.

Then, when the flooding rains arrived in early 2011 we had little excess storage capacity and this strongly contributed the flooding of South-East Queensland, particularly Brisbane.

I'm sure that the same thinking was applied to conserving water for the Thai farmers by retaining more water then usual in the dams for use in the next irrigation period with little spare capacity for flood mitigation.

So ... I agree with your Hanlon's razor quote!

And to expand on it ... with Sir Bernard Ingham saying "cock-up before conspiracy" or as he more elegantly put it ...

"Many journalists have fallen for the conspiracy theory of government. I do assure you that they would produce more accurate work if they adhered to the cock-up theory."

Ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razo

[rubl]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

[David48]

Thank rubl for putting me onto this post.

Highly recommended for all readers of this Forum who want to read the continuing Flood updates (mainly for Bangkok) ...

Go to http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/507929-thailand-live-wednesday-26-oct-2011/

Well done Thai Visa :jap:

Edited October 26, 2011 by David48

[LTGTR]

yes you are

Am I the only one who think this dutch expert sounds poorly informed about the actual situation? Apparently, he doesn't think the river will overflow much, nor that there are areas near the river much more prone for flooding - upto 2 meter according to another expert, who does sound a bit more knowledgeable about Bangkoks specialties.

[enquirer]

<<< But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years >>>

This year, staying with Dutch friends and travelling around with them up and down their country, I learned a lot about how the Dutch cope with surges of rain or sea water. The canals and other stretches of water are deliberately interconnected so that a surge anywhere spreads around the whole country immediately and raises water levels by centimetres as opposed to metres.

Not SO relevant to a huge country like Thailand and the vast city of Bangkok, I admit. But I have family in Bangkok and am following the information with great concern. I hope the worst does not happen over the next few days or weeks.

[tartempion]

Am I the only one who think this dutch expert sounds poorly informed about the actual situation? Apparently, he doesn't think the river will overflow much, nor that there are areas near the river much more prone for flooding - upto 2 meter according to another expert, who does sound a bit more knowledgeable about Bangkoks specialties.

On BVN TV today, at 05.25 and 17.25 program EenVandaag will be about Bangkoks flooding and Dutch expert(s) sent over to Bangkok, thus I suspect we will see this guy talking.

Not sure the 05.25 will not be a repeat of EenVandaag from yesterday's 17.25 though.

It's 04.20 right now, will post comment here after 06.00 if 05.25 is indeed showing Bangkok's flooding.

[marinediscoking]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

I keep hearing this from some thai's. Does anyone have the source on this quote or an news article?

[smedly]

<<< But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years >>>

This year, staying with Dutch friends and travelling around with them up and down their country, I learned a lot about how the Dutch cope with surges of rain or sea water. The canals and other stretches of water are deliberately interconnected so that a surge anywhere spreads around the whole country immediately and raises water levels by centimetres as opposed to metres.

Not SO relevant to a huge country like Thailand and the vast city of Bangkok, I admit. But I have family in Bangkok and am following the information with great concern. I hope the worst does not happen over the next few days or weeks.

ahem - no harm to anyone but the worst has already happened to a very large area of thailand, it seems to me that to many the worst is over once the water is draining to the sea, Bangkok just happens to be in the way, once this is all over will the thai government begin a followup plan to improve the waterways so that this cannot happen again.

[smedly]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

I keep hearing this from some thai's. Does anyone have the source on this quote or an news article?

find out the truth to that one and you may find out who and why this was allowed to happen

[whatawonderfulday]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

How little you know. There is no such county in England. East Anglia is a an area of Eastern England and it was the parts of Cambrigeshire and West Norfolk, South Lincolnshire that the Dutch assisted in draining, commonly known as the Fems.

Edited October 26, 2011 by whatawonderfulday

[plumeria]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

Right. There is nothing new under the sun.

There is no good reason Thailand is suffering this way.

It was preventable.

It was manageable.

And today the PM still has no plan but wait for Taksin to come back in December.

Apparently that means the point of this entire mess is to set the stage for Taksin to return and clean it up.

We all get to experience hell on earth (the wet version) so the billionaire can come back and be lord of us all.

What's wrong with this picture?

This is no act of God.

[webfact]

Britain warns against travel to flood-threatened Bangkok

LONDON, October 26, 2011 (AFP) - Britain on Wednesday urged against all but essential travel to Bangkok as the Thai capital braced itself for severe floods.

Britain's Foreign Office also warned against travel to the twenty-six provinces in Thailand currently affected by widespread flooding.

A huge runoff from the north equivalent to 480,000 Olympic swimming pools is expected to reach the capital at the same time as seasonal high tides, the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Wednesday.

Britain's foreign ministry advised nationals already in Bangkok to exercise caution and keep up to date with local developments.

The Thai government has ordered a five-day holiday from Thursday for 21 provinces including Bangkok, to allow the city's residents to prepare for the inundation or leave.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-10-27

[tartempion]

Am I the only one who think this dutch expert sounds poorly informed about the actual situation? Apparently, he doesn't think the river will overflow much, nor that there are areas near the river much more prone for flooding - upto 2 meter according to another expert, who does sound a bit more knowledgeable about Bangkoks specialties.

On BVN TV today, at 05.25 and 17.25 program EenVandaag will be about Bangkoks flooding and Dutch expert(s) sent over to Bangkok, thus I suspect we will see this guy talking.

Not sure the 05.25 will not be a repeat of EenVandaag from yesterday's 17.25 though.

It's 04.20 right now, will post comment here after 06.00 if 05.25 is indeed showing Bangkok's flooding.

satiariyan,

The Dutch expert definitely knows more than you who only are guessing iso "thinking", although you claim you think

He was saying if the Northern dykes would breach Bangkok could be in for floods up to 2 meters of water.

He showed computer simulations, I guess he brought his software with him, he's working for some Dutch water management company.

He did walk around Bangkok inspecting dykes, and he advised the Thai experts re the coming high tides.

Thus it is reasonable to concede he knows more about dykes and flooding than his Thai counterparts, Thai Visa hobby experts like you included.

[londonthai]

airport is, and probably will be, working, so "don't travel to bangkok" is over the top. Because it's the largest international airport in thailand and in the region, travellers use it as a hub to connect to the other airports. With closing of don muang, those connections ill be even more convenient.

roads around airport are not flooded (most of them are elevated) and with the motorway network you can go to any part of the country

[Boater]

Britain warns against travel to flood-threatened Bangkok

LONDON, October 26, 2011 (AFP) - Britain on Wednesday urged against all but essential travel to Bangkok as the Thai capital braced itself for severe floods.

Britain's Foreign Office also warned against travel to the twenty-six provinces in Thailand currently affected by widespread flooding.

A huge runoff from the north equivalent to 480,000 Olympic swimming pools is expected to reach the capital at the same time as seasonal high tides, the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Wednesday.

Britain's foreign ministry advised nationals already in Bangkok to exercise caution and keep up to date with local developments.

The Thai government has ordered a five-day holiday from Thursday for 21 provinces including Bangkok, to allow the city's residents to prepare for the inundation or leave.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-10-27

about time, supplies are to low to bring in new tourists

Edited October 26, 2011 by Boater

[londonthai]

on what website did you post your comment?