Shady Dealings Set The Stage For Another Crisis: Thai Opinion

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE

Shady dealings set the stage for another crisis

Thanong Khanthong

The dark plot could not have been more perfectly executed.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Monday went to visit flood victims in Singburi. She stayed overnight in that province, though she could have flown back to Bangkok by helicopter. As it happened, Yingluck said she could not preside over the Cabinet meeting the following day. In her absence, Chalerm Yoobamrung, the deputy prime minister, gleefully took charge.

Chalerm held a secret Cabinet meeting with certain ministers and high-ranking officials to deliberate an amnesty decree for ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It was not so secret, though. A Cabinet member came out to leak the amnesty plan to the media. Chalerm sounded very upset at the leak, which was more or less part of the plot to create political uproar. He said the Council of State would have to vet the procedures of the amnesty plan, which was far from its final shape.

As usual, Yingluck pronounced her innocence. She quickly distanced herself from the hot potato. How could she know anything about the amnesty decree, since she did not attend the Cabinet meeting? She then rushed to close the issue by saying that amnesty had to follow the rule of law.

The opposition smells blood. So do the yellow shirts. They could not believe that the government would play the amnesty trump card at a time when floods are still ravaging Bangkok and the outskirts. Millions of people are still suffering.

Yingluck's political standing has been wobbling over her administration's gross mismanagement of the flood crisis. In the aftermath of the deluge, her government is expected to face mass lawsuits and demonstrations from those who have lost fortunes and loved ones in the floods, which could have been better managed to minimise losses.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon came here to shore up Yingluck's standing. Yingluck held a joint news conference with Ban, followed by another with Clinton. The presence of both global leaders in Thailand was carefully choreographed to bolster Yingluck's sagging stature.

On the surface, Ban and Clinton's visit to Thailand ahead of the Asean and East Asia Summits in Bali was designed to show support for Thailand, which has faced its worst flood disaster in 50 years. But make no mistake about the US's shifting policy. Clinton is now shifting US military priority to Asia. Both President Obama and Clinton have begun aggressive foreign policy and security arrangements to contain China, which is rising rapidly to challenge US global leadership.

Before heading for the East Asia Summit in Bali, Clinton announced that she would be updating the US's security relationship with allies in Asia - Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand. Clinton said the US wants to ensure that its alliances enjoy political support and that its defence cooperation with each country was enough for "deterring provocation".

"We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results," she said.

China is apparently the fat target at the opposite end.

The US is now doing a checklist of its allies in Asia. On Wednesday, Obama and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard unveiled plans to deepen the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, with plans for 2,500 US Marines to operate out of a base in northern Australia. At the same time, Clinton went on board the USS Fitzgerald in Manila Bay and signed a defence pact with the Philippines. The message was clear to the world that the US was reviving and augmenting its military presence in Asia.

The US has a strong military alliance with Japan and South Korea. Singapore is already a US outpost.

The relationship between Bangkok and Washington has deteriorated since the 2006 coup. This has led Washington to build up strategic relationships with Vietnam and Indonesia.

Washington has made it clear that it backs Yingluck and the Pheu Thai-led government. There was a vague message of military cooperation between Bangkok and Washington. Yingluck said during the joint news conference with Clinton that Thailand has been in talks with the US over the possibility of the US using the U-tapao Airport. At this stage, such cooperation would involve only humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

It is an open secret the US would like to use the U-Tapao facility for its warships and aircraft. Yingluck is now inching Thailand towards a possible confrontation with China, with which it has developed a good relationship.

As expected, a question was raised at the joint news conference about the amnesty decree for Thaksin. Before Yingluck could make any blunders on this tricky issue, Clinton quickly came to her rescue. Clinton said: "The US encourages the Thai government to move on with reconciliation and consolidate a strong democratic process. We stood by each other in times of challenge, and we are standing with you now. The US will identify flood damage and provide military and civil support to Thailand."

With this passing comment, the US will back Yingluck to the end in the face of any turmoil that ensues over amnesty for Thaksin. This is, of course, in return for closer cooperation with the US on military and security arrangements.

The time line has been set. His Majesty the King's Birthday is on December 5, the date that the amnesty is supposed to be announced. Amnesty is the King's royal prerogative. This time the government wants to make amnesty run an unnatural course by changing the conditions to fit a pardon for Thaksin.

I have just heard that Pinthongtha Shinawatra, Thaksin's daughter, will marry on December 12. As a father, Thaksin is entitled to be present at his daughter's wedding, so goes the story. He wants the pardon for his two-year jail term to come in time for a return by that date.

Thailand is fatefully heading towards another political crisis in December that could make or break the country.

-- The Nation 2011-11-18

[Jingthing]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

[sparebox2]

YS have other thing to do too, like take care of the flood crisis.

It is a conflict of interest, so her not chairing it is a right decision.

[sparebox2]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

Shinawatra is Thailand

Thailand is Shinawatra

Same same.

[FOODLOVER]

Here it is. Comments at the bottom are interesting.

[Buchholz]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

I don't see her comments as specifically directed at support for Yingluck or Thaksin. She didn't come out and say, "We support the current administration"... she identified the American support in terms of the nation,

"We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results," she said.

She's voicing support for whoever is in charge of Thailand so that the US can re-strengthen its presence in Asia.

.

[lannarebirth]

Probably the most factually accurate piece I've read from Thanong.

I don't think it's a secret that western globalists, run for the benefit of global corporate interests, prefer Thaksin. He is willing to sell anything, make any deal, just so long as he personally benefits from it. With ASEAN walls falling, that makes things a lot easier. I do wonder if the Thaksin / Hun Sen lovefest will stand the test of time however. In the end, Thaksin has betrayed everyone he's ever dealt with.

[Buchholz]

Here it is. Comments at the bottom are interesting.

Thank you for sharing the video.

It was good to see that Yingluck did attempt to answer the question on the amnesty issue, after Hillary spoke in general terms on reconciliation. Even Hillary's general comments highlight the shortcomings of Yingluck's actions perpetuating the divide.

In her response Yingluck continued with the failed excuse of not being able to return from Singburi perpetuates the transparent attempt to exonerate her brother.

It was also interesting hearing Hillary diplomatically voice her focus on the ties between the nations and not the characters.

.

Edited November 18, 2011 by Buchholz

[noitom]

Here it is. Comments at the bottom are interesting.

Listening to the tone of the conference (Clinton mainly) as well as other events, that the US is stressing these airports , U-Tapao and Don Muang as "staging" areas. That's a big concern. It raises the question of whether the US feels that Thailand is very vulnerable and helpless to correct itself and stand on its own. Why would the US focus two airports as "staging?" There must be more than aid and support for flood victims. Could be China, could be a plan to clean up the drug trade. Obama is not likely to be around for much longer after next year, but Clinton could be if she announces her candidacy.

The "staging" will mean more military presence and troops. A coming boom for the Thai "entertainment" trade and crooks that siphon off that money. It's a proven formula. It worked to establish Thailand as the world's house of ill repute. Why not repeat the proven success formula. Clinton even made a reference to "bringing back the tourists" to see all those beautiful sights. She knows very well, she is married to a "tourist."

[Lopburi99]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

+1 Me too.

[FOODLOVER]

Here it is. Comments at the bottom are interesting.

Listening to the tone of the conference (Clinton mainly) as well as other events, that the US is stressing these airports , U-Tapao and Don Muang as "staging" areas. That's a big concern. It raises the question of whether the US feels that Thailand is very vulnerable and helpless to correct itself and stand on its own. Why would the US focus two airports as "staging?" There must be more than aid and support for flood victims. Could be China, could be a plan to clean up the drug trade. Obama is not likely to be around for much longer after next year, but Clinton could be if she announces her candidacy.

The "staging" will mean more military presence and troops. A coming boom for the Thai "entertainment" trade and crooks that siphon off that money. It's a proven formula. It worked to establish Thailand as the world's house of ill repute. Why not repeat the proven success formula. Clinton even made a reference to "bringing back the tourists" to see all those beautiful sights. She knows very well, she is married to a "tourist."

But he did not inhale or have "Sexual relations with that woman". It depends on the definition of tourist. As for the drug situation the Gov is currently battling a war in mexico and i would think that this would be too far away at this time. The China situation may certainly be in play. Apparently they have some fancy new ships that have caused a stir. Obama will be back! Not from successes but from the GOP candidates themselves. IMHO

[Langsuan Man]

Listening to the tone of the conference (Clinton mainly) as well as other events, that the US is stressing these airports , U-Tapao and Don Muang as "staging" areas. That's a big concern. It raises the question of whether the US feels that Thailand is very vulnerable and helpless to correct itself and stand on its own. Why would the US focus two airports as "staging?" There must be more than aid and support for flood victims. Could be China, could be a plan to clean up the drug trade. Obama is not likely to be around for much longer after next year, but Clinton could be if she announces her candidacy.

The "staging" will mean more military presence and troops. A coming boom for the Thai "entertainment" trade and crooks that siphon off that money. It's a proven formula. It worked to establish Thailand as the world's house of ill repute. Why not repeat the proven success formula. Clinton even made a reference to "bringing back the tourists" to see all those beautiful sights. She knows very well, she is married to a "tourist."

What poppycock

Just exactly where would you suggest that the US "stage" relief supplies, Chang Mai and then truck it down to where it is needed

Or maybe Phuket, and let the Tuk Tuk mafia move it for them

Every time the US tries to help someone the TV pundits come out of the woodwork and always imagine some conspiracy that the US is trying to "dominate" the receivers of aid

Biting the hand that feeds you comes to mind

[h90]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

Did you read the Wikileak about Thailand?

It was very clear....

[OzMick]

Bill will love Thailand. "I did not have sexual relations with that woman!" was an obfuscation based on his personal view of what "sexual relations" included.

OTOH, woman is a pretty well defined word, in the US at least. In Thailand........................

[jayboy]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

I don't see her comments as specifically directed at support for Yingluck or Thaksin. She didn't come out and say, "We support the current administration"... she identified the American support in terms of the nation,

"We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results," she said.

She's voicing support for whoever is in charge of Thailand so that the US can re-strengthen its presence in Asia.

I think you are partly right and I agree its ludicrous to suggest Clinton has shown support for Thaksin, but she was rather more specific in her support for the current government than you suggest..The US does not of course favour one democratically elected government in Thailand over another unless a particular administration is tainted.Surayud for example would not have been received in Washington at the highest levels for obvious reasons. Yingluck's government does have a clear democratic mandate, and that clearly is a plus point.I'm not suggesting that the last government was held in disfavour by the way, far from it.However it's quite clear from Clinton's remarks and the earlier State Department briefing that there's strong opposition to military coups, and a desire that the new government should be given its term without external interference.

[Morgo]

The Nation have found another conspiracy theory, what a surprise. To link the visits of Ban Ke Moon and Hillary Clinton with an amnesty for Taskin makes no sense.

Thai media just needs to spell out the facts. Governments the world over have granted amnesties to ex PM's/Presidents. I'm reminded of the amnesty bestowed on Richard Nixon by Gerald Ford as one example.

[lannarebirth]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

I don't see her comments as specifically directed at support for Yingluck or Thaksin. She didn't come out and say, "We support the current administration"... she identified the American support in terms of the nation,

"We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results," she said.

She's voicing support for whoever is in charge of Thailand so that the US can re-strengthen its presence in Asia.

I think you are partly right and I agree its ludicrous to suggest Clinton has shown support for Thaksin, but she was rather more specific in her support for the current government than you suggest..The US does not of course favour one democratically elected government in Thailand over another unless a particular administration is tainted.Surayud for example would not have been received in Washington at the highest levels for obvious reasons. Yingluck's government does have a clear democratic mandate, and that clearly is a plus point.I'm not suggesting that the last government was held in disfavour by the way, far from it.However it's quite clear from Clinton's remarks and the earlier State Department briefing that there's strong opposition to military coups, and a desire that the new government should be given its term without external interference.

Unless of course they corrupt all those mechanisms which provide for the removal of a government lawfully as Thaksin did. He really left no choice as he'd corrupted all the normal checks and balances, which of course are always preferable.

[Insight]

Here it is. Comments at the bottom are interesting.

Doesn't really matter what conspiracies you believe.

Judging by this performance, she's going to need all the support she can get.

(edit - first sentence not a reference to FOODLOVER )

Edited November 18, 2011 by Insight

[FOODLOVER]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

Did you read the Wikileak about Thailand?

It was very clear....

Quite interesting reading. Seems some are blocked. Thanks

[FOODLOVER]

Bill will love Thailand. "I did not have sexual relations with that woman!" was an obfuscation based on his personal view of what "sexual relations" included.

OTOH, woman is a pretty well defined word, in the US at least. In Thailand........................

I think he forgot what the word "is" was all about as well. "a president who once argued it depends on what the definition of 'is' is" -- a reference to Clinton's semantic defense of himself during an August 17, 1998,deposition relating to the Lewinsky affair..."

But all in all a fairly harmless president. Just fixated on all things Presidential, like the Oval orifice. Is this off topic?

Edited November 18, 2011 by FOODLOVER

[cloudhopper]

The Clintons and the Shinawatras are all members of the .1% and therefore natural allies.

[Lifer]

I think some Government ought to put all these armchair experts to work saving the world.

[gregb]

Bill will love Thailand. "I did not have sexual relations with that woman!" was an obfuscation based on his personal view of what "sexual relations" included.

OTOH, woman is a pretty well defined word, in the US at least. In Thailand........................

I think he forgot what the word "is" was all about as well. "a president who once argued it depends on what the definition of 'is' is" -- a reference to Clinton's semantic defense of himself during an August 17, 1998,deposition relating to the Lewinsky affair..."

But all in all a fairly harmless president. Just fixated on all things Presidential, like the Oval orifice. Is this off topic?

Since when has the pursuit of sex ever been off topic on this board? It is why 90% of the posters are here.

[Payboy]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

+1 Me too.

Bobby Amsterdam is going to get a big bonus this year.

[FOODLOVER]

I think some Government ought to put all these armchair experts to work saving the world.

I can clear my schedule for a couple of hours on Tuesday.

[Jingthing]

The Nation have found another conspiracy theory, what a surprise. To link the visits of Ban Ke Moon and Hillary Clinton with an amnesty for Taskin makes no sense.

Thai media just needs to spell out the facts. Governments the world over have granted amnesties to ex PM's/Presidents. I'm reminded of the amnesty bestowed on Richard Nixon by Gerald Ford as one example.

Funny example. The pardon of Nixon was very unpopular (not to mention outrageous and despicable) and is credited as the reason Ford was never able to be elected president, even once.

[Buchholz]

The Nation have found another conspiracy theory, what a surprise. To link the visits of Ban Ke Moon and Hillary Clinton with an amnesty for Taskin makes no sense.

Thai media just needs to spell out the facts. Governments the world over have granted amnesties to ex PM's/Presidents. I'm reminded of the amnesty bestowed on Richard Nixon by Gerald Ford as one example.

Funny example. The pardon of Nixon was very unpopular (not to mention outrageous and despicable) and is credited as the reason Ford was never able to be elected president, even once.

Very much agreed.

Nixon's pardon justifiably received wide-spread condemnation, ridicule, and outrage resulting in long-lasting negative repercussions for the country. It was justified only by a pitiful handful of his most extreme supporters.

say... that's quite a bit like Thaksin's pardon in some regards, afterall.

.

Edited November 18, 2011 by Buchholz

[scorecard]

The Nation have found another conspiracy theory, what a surprise. To link the visits of Ban Ke Moon and Hillary Clinton with an amnesty for Taskin makes no sense.

Thai media just needs to spell out the facts. Governments the world over have granted amnesties to ex PM's/Presidents. I'm reminded of the amnesty bestowed on Richard Nixon by Gerald Ford as one example.

So because tricky dicky got an amnesty every country should 'bestow' (doubtful that this is really an appropriate word)on all ex PMs?

Surely this is a case by case issue with lots of case by case circumstances, background and the facts of why the ex Pm is in fact an ex Pm to be considered.

[scorecard]

Not sure how much of the part of the US-Thailand deal is true, but I was rather surprised at the vehemence of the support Clinton showed for Shinawatra. I had expected more emphasis on support for Thailand in general rather than the regime in particular. So could be something to the theory.

I don't see her comments as specifically directed at support for Yingluck or Thaksin. She didn't come out and say, "We support the current administration"... she identified the American support in terms of the nation,

"We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results," she said.

She's voicing support for whoever is in charge of Thailand so that the US can re-strengthen its presence in Asia.

I think you are partly right and I agree its ludicrous to suggest Clinton has shown support for Thaksin, but she was rather more specific in her support for the current government than you suggest..The US does not of course favour one democratically elected government in Thailand over another unless a particular administration is tainted.Surayud for example would not have been received in Washington at the highest levels for obvious reasons. Yingluck's government does have a clear democratic mandate, and that clearly is a plus point.I'm not suggesting that the last government was held in disfavour by the way, far from it.However it's quite clear from Clinton's remarks and the earlier State Department briefing that there's strong opposition to military coups, and a desire that the new government should be given its term without external interference.

Unless of course they corrupt all those mechanisms which provide for the removal of a government lawfully as Thaksin did. He really left no choice as he'd corrupted all the normal checks and balances, which of course are always preferable.

Agree.

[Crushdepth]

Just what we need - a political disaster on top of a natural disaster. That'll help the country no end. Fantastic. Thanks PTP.