A Good Way To Ensure That Plan A Remains On Track: Thai Opinion

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A good way to ensure that Plan A remains on track

Tulsathit Taptim

Let's be clear on a couple of things here.

The alleged plan to bring Thaksin Shinawatra home on the occasion of His Majesty the King's birthday anniversary did not come out of the Thai media's "imagination" as the government would have the Thai public believe. And it was not "testing the waters" either, as Thaksin's detractors suspect. The whole royal pardon episode was for real, and it could have gone either way but for a last-minute change of heart.

You don't test the waters with something like this when your dear sister is facing a political hurricane as prime minister and looking increasingly likely to have a nervous breakdown in public - pure and simple. The pardon push was meant to be one big gamble, but Thaksin has folded his cards just before the showdown. Exactly why is debatable, and many reasons may have to be factored in.

Initially, it looked as though the timing was right. The flood disaster was making any organised street opposition to a pardon unlikely if not impossible. To make this move when Yingluck Shinawatra's popularity was being dealt a blow was risky, but it would have been even riskier later if her bruised image doesn't recover. The Thai military is rebuilding its name through the flood crisis, and that minimises the chances of the men in uniform reverting to the "bad guy" role too soon. With His Majesty's birthday a few days away, the time to act had to be right away.

These were seemingly reasonable assessments. But in this era, political uproar doesn't have to take place on the streets. A Facebook page dedicated to denouncing the pardon plan surpassed 100,000 "likes" in just over a day. Twitter was swamped by abusive comments that pro- and anti-Thaksin zealots hurled at each other, edging out flood emergency messages. TV and newspaper reports were dominated by the explosive political story, which only made things worse for the government when flood victims were shown still searching desperately for food and clean drinking water. The yellow shirts, the multi-coloured group and university academics were among those lambasting the administration. Opinion polls confirmed that, by and large, Thais do not support a pardon, at least for now. Flood relief donations made through the government, already shrinking because of a management scandal, threatened to dry up.

Last but not least, the Democrats lodged censure and impeachment motions against Justice Minister Pracha Promnok last week. He is purportedly to be grilled in connection with how relief supplies have been controversially handled, but the opposition has left little doubt that the real agenda will be something else. How legal principles, royal traditions and even the spirit of the Constitution were being bent in the pardon push will be ideal ammunition to ricochet off Pracha and on to Yingluck.

Thaksin's letter declaring his readiness to make a personal sacrifice for the sake of national peace then looked to be just a matter of time. It came over the weekend and was, within hours, followed by Justice Minister Pracha's announcement that this year's royal pardon would not include the former leader. The political temperature subsequently dropped almost as fast as it had risen last week. The yellow shirts cancelled a planned gathering at the head office of the Council of State. The print and broadcast media switched back to the flood emergency.

It can only be described as a U-turn, a quick retreat after an attempt at a smash-and-grab robbery appeared in jeopardy. Some believe that Thaksin had only wanted to test the public reaction and his enemies' strength, so that he can perfect his real strike, probably next year. But all indications show that it isn't quite like that. This is more like trying Plan B before Plan A because the former looked attractive and convenient all of a sudden.

Plan A, of course, features a Parliament-endorsed general amnesty. Not only will it be more politically correct than a Cabinet-enacted pardon decree, Plan A will give Thaksin a comprehensive get-out-of-jail card. In other words, if a pardon decree cannot ensure that he gets off the hook for his current sentence and four remaining cases in which he still faces trial, a general amnesty law can.

Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung yesterday confirmed that the highly contentious matter of whether Thaksin should walk free was heading to Parliament, a place where it is more suited. So, Plan A is back on track. What has happened to Plan B, though, will serve as a warning to everyone about how easily flammable this issue is. Most floodwater will be gone by the time an amnesty bill is debated, but whether that's good or bad news, nobody can tell.

-- The Nation 2011-11-23

[sparebox2]

I hope he has got a Plan C too.

Looks like Plan A will not work too due to Sondhi & Tul.

[Bakseedaa]

I hope he has got a Plan C too.

Looks like Plan A will not work too due to Sondhi & Tul.

Dear God, is it too much to ask for, in my prayers, for a quick end to Khun Thaksin.... a heart attack would be super, ..... but what would happen to poor Yinluck without her brother..?

[sparebox2]

I hope he has got a Plan C too.

Looks like Plan A will not work too due to Sondhi & Tul.

Dear God, is it too much to ask for, in my prayers, for a quick end to Khun Thaksin.... a heart attack would be super, ..... but what would happen to poor Yinluck without her brother..?

Maybe Suthep could make him walk toward a bullet.

[Jingthing]

Thailand to Thaksin:

We're just not that into you!

[Siripon]

I agree this was a real attempt to get a pardon- hence Kwanchai's confident remark Thaksin would be back in December, Thaksin only backed off when he realised the extent of the opposition, and more importantly how insenitive and selfish it looked when many are still suffering from the floods.

So Parliament will be interesting next year when the PAD, Apisit say they don't want an amnesty but for the justice system to proceed. And what about the red shirts' demands regarding Ratchprasong? Jatuporn claimed Sansern, the army spokesman at the time was now trying to put the responsibility for the deaths on Apisit and Suthep before Sansern himself came out to explain everything had proceeded according to international standards regarding crowd dispersion under the Act of Emergency.

[Brucey7]

I suspect that the back-pedaling on Plan A (amnesty on the occasion of His Majesty's Birthday) came about following notification from His Majesty's staff, that no list of names that included fugitives etc would even REACH H.M. as his advisors would simply file it in the appropriate way.

[nong38]

I am sure they have a plan B,C and D they are just the same as A! The we also hve E.,F and G, Oh I say they look pretty similar to A as well :jap: . What they dont have is plan for the floods.

[ratcatcher]

I hope he has got a Plan C too.

Looks like Plan A will not work too due to Sondhi & Tul.

Dear God, is it too much to ask for, in my prayers, for a quick end to Khun Thaksin.... a heart attack would be super, ..... but what would happen to poor Yinluck without her brother..?

Maybe Suthep could make him walk toward a bullet.

"TO JUMP OR NOT TO JUMP, THAT IS THE QUESTION."

[hammered]

What most people miss is that this whole gambit resulted in the ending of the media assault on Yingluck over floods, media fantasising about the miltary and everybody reminded of the what this conflict is about. Now the investigation of corrupto man is the main headlined issue and floods, military and red-yellow and Thaksin are liek the majority want off the fornt page. Does anyone actually think this was by accident? the furious asault on Yingluck is over and the attempt to bring him back in a couple of weeks is over. Back to the same stalemate for now with absolutely nothing changed. The analysis in this article is a mix of propaganda and wishful thinking. Most Thais talk now only about timing.

[JAG]

It's all a waiting game now, until the big event we can't discuss.

[Arkady]

I suspect that the back-pedaling on Plan A (amnesty on the occasion of His Majesty's Birthday) came about following notification from His Majesty's staff, that no list of names that included fugitives etc would even REACH H.M. as his advisors would simply file it in the appropriate way.

I think it would be a pretty safe bet that this plan, the birthday pardon (not amnesty) got blocked pretty definitively somewhere down the pipe. I think Tusahtit is right in saying it was a real attempt, not a red herring. The blockage is likely to have been in the Council of State or perhaps the Privy Council. The Council of State was going to have to opine on the legality of the decree and, although the government is not obliged to abide by its opinions there would be strong moral pressure to do so over a sensitive issue like this. It is possible that some one at the Council of State warned the government to withdraw the draft decree because they were going to opine that it went against the spirit of the law, even if not technically illegal, or even that it was unconstitutional. Thaksin would surely have pushed ahead regardless of any potential consequences, if he wasn't blocked. Things might get more difficult later on and making a general amnesty will be more controversial and more open to constitutional challenge. Annulling the two 2007 constitutions is not going to be all that easy either because the military will be a big loser from that plan. That just about covers plans A, B and C. Time is ultimately on Thaksin's side, if he can wait 5-10 years but he is not a patient man and time is money.

Edited November 23, 2011 by Arkady

[ajarnyai]

I suspect that the back-pedaling on Plan A (amnesty on the occasion of His Majesty's Birthday) came about following notification from His Majesty's staff, that no list of names that included fugitives etc would even REACH H.M. as his advisors would simply file it in the appropriate way.

I agree. I think that the Thai government does have some checks and balances in regards to who has the final say..... The government can ask for whatever they want but the judicial branch, and other higher level parts of of the government guide the country on many issues. I doubt Thaksin will ever receive forgiveness for running away from the charges, but constantly meddling in Thai politics.