ANALYSIS

Politics to heat up in 2012

Kittipong Thavevong

The Nation

Govt likely to take on divisive issues as 111 banned players return to the public stage

2011 was a year of political transition that saw a change of government following the general election in July. For political observers, last year was rather dull compared to the preceding years, which were full of political drama - albeit some of it violent, vicious and vile.

2012 is likely to be more exciting politically.

The "honeymoon" for the government - if that really exists in Thai politics - appears to be over. And politicians from the government camp seem to be more confident, venturing into controversial issues that have led to conflicts in recent years - such as constitutional amendment and an amnesty for fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

This year will also see the end of five-year bans imposed on 111 executives from Thaksin's disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, who were prohibited from political activity after the 2006 coup.

The administration of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will find it more difficult to convince

the public that its failure to tackle certain problems effectively is due to the fact it "has just come to power" and that it has inherited problems from the previous government. Her administration used that excuse with limited success

for its flawed attempt to tackle the severe flood in the Central region. Although Pheu Thai won sympathy from its supporters - particularly red shirts - many victims were unimpressed and decided to sue the politicians and bureaucrats responsible.

The biggest political event of 2011 was Pheu Thai's victory in the July 3 election, winning more than half the seats in the 500-MP House of Representatives and leaving the rival Democrat Party in opposition.

The government managed to avoid major political headaches, but Mother Nature brought a big one of her own for the new regime. Many provinces, including Bangkok, were hit by severe flooding that was described as the country's worst in half a century. The government and its supporters blamed a series of rainstorms that hit the country in the space of a few months for the massive deluge, which topped most of the country's major dams. However, the opposition and critics said it was simple mismanagement and politicisation of water oversight.

Pheu Thai politicians have begun testing opinions on issues that have in the past led to disputes, such as constitutional amendments and an amnesty for Thaksin, who is on the run from a two-year prison sentence for abuse of power. Pheu Thai has explained this by saying both issues figured in their election campaign, and their victory pointed to popular support on these issues.

Thaksin, who is believed to be pulling the strings behind the ruling party, said repeatedly that he had no plan to return to power, but politicians loyal to him continued to push for an amnesty in order to "return to Thaksin the justice he deserves".

In May this year, all 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives will complete their five-year bans. Although many have been politically active behind the scenes, it will soon be legal for them to get involved in any public activities and even return to power. Not all of the 111 - which includes Thaksin and many veterans - are expected to make a comeback, but those who do are likely to make an impact, judging from their stature and influence.

Pheu Thai appears to be steering clear of calls by a number of acade-mics, critics and red-shirt activists for amendment of Article 112 of the Penal Code, which involves lese majeste. The party explains that tackling the issue was not among its campaign promises. Such an explanation is likely to upset many opponents of Article 112, but the party may have decided the issue is just too hot to handle.

Last year saw no severe clashes of the kind seen in 2009 and 2010, but it is undeniable that the deep-rooted political conflict continues. Any contentious issue - big or small - could fan the flames. Both sides have their supporters, but Pheu Thai's red shirts appear to have been more politically active.

Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, who also heads the Democrat Party, warned recently that the country's political stability in the coming years hinges on the government's stance toward Thaksin. "If the government wants peaceful years in office, they can have it. But if they want to provoke controversy, it's there," he said.

-- The Nation 2012-01-01

So...do we take bets on that the end of the ban on the 111 will spawn some 'unfortunate' event that 'forces' PTP to dissolve the parliament [again] to have new elections where the majority of these 111 again stand for election, taking back the positions held by their wife/son/driver now - or atleast a big 'shuffle' in the cabinet that magically brings several of they key players in again?

So...do we take bets on that the end of the ban on the 111 will spawn some 'unfortunate' event that 'forces' PTP to dissolve the parliament [again] to have new elections where the majority of these 111 again stand for election, taking back the positions held by their wife/son/driver now - or atleast a big 'shuffle' in the cabinet that magically brings several of they key players in again?

5 years is a very long time in politics. I would be surprised if some of the incumbent proxies resist being ejected in favour of their (former?) masters.