Dr Smith Warns Of Tsunami Risk In Phuket, Andaman Region

[webfact]

Dr Smith warns of tsunami risk in Phuket, Andaman region

Phuket Gazette

Dr Smith Dharmasaroja (inset) and the crowd of 2000 school administrators he addressed at the Royal Phuket City Hotel on Thursday. Photo: Warisa Temram.

PHUKET: -- The man whose warnings of a possible tsunami disaster along Thailand's Andaman coast went unheeded years before the 2004 calamity struck was in Phuket recently, urging a national assembly of school administrators to be prepared for more possible disasters in 2012.

Dr Smith Dharmasaroja, former Director of the National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC), was guest speaker for a gathering of some 2,000 secondary school directors and deputy school directors in the main ballroom at Royal Phuket City Hotel in Phuket Town on Thursday.

Speaking on the likelihood of a possible earthquake and tsunami disaster like the one that befell Thailand and neighboring countries in 2004, he urged the administrators to "be prepared but not to panic".

“Earthquakes have occurred in many countries lately, and there is always a possibility one could hit Thailand as well. Our warning center has detected some movement from [tectonic] plates in the Indian Ocean and Andaman Sea that indicates an earthquake could happen sometime soon,” said Dr Smith.

Doctor Smith was referring to work by the National Disaster Warning Council Foundation (NDWCF), a non-government organization he set up with other retired bureaucrats after his dismissal as head of the NDWC.

Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra installed Dr Smith as director of the NDWC after its formation in the wake of the 2004 disaster, but his authority was undermined when a subsequent government put the agency under the Meteorological Department.

After he was removed from the agency altogether, he later became a critic of its work in maintaining the tsunami early warning system he helped establish. As a result, he set up the NDWCF as a parallel organization.

“The earthquake could cause a tsunami in southern Thailand, along the Andaman coast, so the warning system should be ready at all times and everyone should always be prepared. If we maintain preparedness, there is no need to panic,” he added.

Although Thailand is not located directly on any of the major tectonic faults that comprise the "ring of fire", there are many minor faults in Thailand, he explained.

“There are 13 such faults in Thailand. Any major earthquake that occurs in our neighboring countries could affect these faults and can cause a lot of damage," he said.

He specified a fault zone near the Three-Pagoda Pass in Kanchanaburi province, on the Burmese border, as one of the highest-risk areas. A major tremor there could affect the structural integrity of the Srinagarindra Dam, he said.

“Our capital city Bangkok has a very high risk of suffering serious disasters. Bangkok is located on loose soil and it continues to sink every year. If a magnitude 7 to 8 earthquake were centered nearby, Bangkok could suffer severe damage,” he warned.

“Although 2012 could be a year when many natural disasters occur, I would like everyone to prepare for the worst -- but not to panic about the possibility," he told the educators.

Source: http://www.phuketgaz...ticle12274.html

-- Phuket Gazette 2012-02-11

[thaiIand]

good news

[Valentine]

I remember his tsunami warning which sent many people heading for the hills some of whom camped out for a few days. After that he was fired & then a couple of years later on Boxing Day, 2004, the big one hit. Dr Smith is someone who's opinions should be heeded.

[kurnell]

It was a fluke, nothing more. With the number of crackpots running around predicting earthquakes, dams bursting etc, one of them finally had to get it partly right.

Here are a few. I predict political uncertainty in 2012, also major traffic accidents involving alcohol where the driver will flee the scene, infrastructure projects put on the back burner and huge electoral promises fizzing out to nothing. Laugh now, but I will be seen as a genius in 12 months!

[Valentine]

It was a fluke, nothing more. With the number of crackpots running around predicting earthquakes, dams bursting etc, one of them finally had to get it partly right.

Here are a few. I predict political uncertainty in 2012, also major traffic accidents involving alcohol where the driver will flee the scene, infrastructure projects put on the back burner and huge electoral promises fizzing out to nothing. Laugh now, but I will be seen as a genius in 12 months!

Flippance is not called for considering around 300,000 died. He is only calling for everyone to be prepared as per this quote from the article "I would like everyone to prepare for the worst -- but not to panic about the possibility". There are no experts who can predict quakes with absolute certainty but the can see the readings of rumblings in the ground & just urge for good warning systems etc are in place. Many thousands could have been saved had an adequate warning system been in place.

[kurnell]

It was a fluke, nothing more. With the number of crackpots running around predicting earthquakes, dams bursting etc, one of them finally had to get it partly right.

Here are a few. I predict political uncertainty in 2012, also major traffic accidents involving alcohol where the driver will flee the scene, infrastructure projects put on the back burner and huge electoral promises fizzing out to nothing. Laugh now, but I will be seen as a genius in 12 months!

Flippance is not called for considering around 300,000 died. He is only calling for everyone to be prepared as per this quote from the article "I would like everyone to prepare for the worst -- but not to panic about the possibility". There are no experts who can predict quakes with absolute certainty but the can see the readings of rumblings in the ground & just urge for good warning systems etc are in place. Many thousands could have been saved had an adequate warning system been in place.

Pfftt!

[Felt 35]

It was a fluke, nothing more. With the number of crackpots running around predicting earthquakes, dams bursting etc, one of them finally had to get it partly right.

Here are a few. I predict political uncertainty in 2012, also major traffic accidents involving alcohol where the driver will flee the scene, infrastructure projects put on the back burner and huge electoral promises fizzing out to nothing. Laugh now, but I will be seen as a genius in 12 months!

It`s a standard you refer to and nothing unusual just as it is no prediction that the rainseason will come.

[Jingthing]

When was the last time a great earthquake occurred near Bangkok?

[richard_smith237]

It was a fluke, nothing more. With the number of crackpots running around predicting earthquakes, dams bursting etc, one of them finally had to get it partly right. Here are a few. I predict political uncertainty in 2012, also major traffic accidents involving alcohol where the driver will flee the scene, infrastructure projects put on the back burner and huge electoral promises fizzing out to nothing. Laugh now, but I will be seen as a genius in 12 months!

After this post, you most definitely wont be !

“Earthquakes have occurred in many countries lately, and there is always a possibility one could hit Thailand as well. Our warning center has detected some movement from [tectonic] plates in the Indian Ocean and Andaman Sea that indicates an earthquake could happen sometime soon,” said Dr Smith.

This is worrying, evidence is there to suggest an increased risk. Anyone would be stupid to ignore this. All Mr Smith is asking for is increased awareness and vigilance and to ensure the Tsunami warnig systems are fully operational and maintained. How anyone can be stupid enough to ridicule this is beyond me.

As with volcanoes, earthquakes are impossible to predict accurately, however, it is possible to predict that something big is going to happen soon (i.e. within the next few years - On a Geological timescale this can be considered pin-point accuracy)

He specified a fault zone near the Three-Pagoda Pass in Kanchanaburi province, on the Burmese border, as one of the highest-risk areas. A major tremor there could affect the structural integrity of the Srinagarindra Dam, he said.

Thailand is riddled with small faults and a few major ones, the Korat Plateau is a result of ancient major fault movement. It is an entirely feasible statement that these fault zones present a risk, albeit a minor risk at the moment, however movements and stresses should be monitored.

“Our capital city Bangkok has a very high risk of suffering serious disasters. Bangkok is located on loose soil and it continues to sink every year. If a magnitude 7 to 8 earthquake were centered nearby, Bangkok could suffer severe damage,” he warned.

Remember the mexico city quake? liquefaction is a major issue in a quake in Bangkok this would have devastating consequences.

[kurnell]

It was a fluke, nothing more. With the number of crackpots running around predicting earthquakes, dams bursting etc, one of them finally had to get it partly right. Here are a few. I predict political uncertainty in 2012, also major traffic accidents involving alcohol where the driver will flee the scene, infrastructure projects put on the back burner and huge electoral promises fizzing out to nothing. Laugh now, but I will be seen as a genius in 12 months!

After this post, you most definitely wont be !

Oh yeah!