Pheu Thai Blames Poll Loss On Flood Policies

[webfact]

Pheu Thai blames poll loss on flood policies

The Nation

PATHUM THANI: -- The Pheu Thai Party believed it lost Sunday's by-election in Pathum Thani to the Opposition Democrat Party because of last year's catastrophic flood.

Democrat Party MP candidate Kiatisak Songsaeng defeated Pheu Thai Party MP candidate Somchai Rangsiwattanasak in constituency 5, Pathum Thani Lam Luka district.

Pheu Thai Party spokesman Prompong Nopparit dismissed as groundless a remark made by Democrat Party deputy leader Alongkorn Pollbutr that the ruling party defeat was caused by its sagging popularity.

Prompong said major causes of the Pheu Thai defeat was that only 30 per cent of eligible voters exercised their voting rights, and turning of public sentiment against the government for its handling of the flooding.

Korn Chatikavanij, a Democrat leader, wrote in his Facebook page, thanking voters for their support of the party and saying the results of the by-election provided a valuable lesson to the Pheu Thai Party.

"The former MP quit his post to apply as President of the Provincial Administrative Organisation even though he was elected only eight months [ago]…He made the whole thing as if it was for fun and has taken public support for granted. This should serve as a signal for the Pheu Thai Party not to be obsessed with solving problems for Thaksin and ignore addressing the plight of the people..'' he posted.

"On the contrary, Dr Kiatisak has been very diligent in helping people affected by floods even though he lost in the general election. If the Democrats want to beat the Pheu Thai, they have to sacrifice as Kiatisak did.

"This victory of ours in the "red" stronghold is one which is remarkable,'' he said.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva thanked voters for the election victory saying the party has not had any MP in Pathum Thani for a long time.

He cited the public being fed up with politics as the reason for the low voter turnout.

-- The Nation 2012-04-23

[DP25]

For comparison, here is how district 5 in Pathum Thani voted last year

PTP - 49,242 - 55%

Democrat - 34,402 - 38%

BJT - 6,026 - 6%

Interesting that this was a seat that PTP won with a majority of the vote, as many of their seats outside of the N and NE were not. You'd expect it more in one of the seats they won with 30% of the vote, not in one with a majority.

Edited April 23, 2012 by DP25

[OzMick]

Perhaps it may have helped if the party leader visited the electorate to support the candidate, but he/she was out of the country.

[Buchholz]

Pheu Thai Party spokesman Prompong Nopparit dismissed as groundless a remark made by Democrat Party deputy leader Alongkorn Pollbutr that the ruling party defeat was caused by its sagging popularity.

Prompong said major causes of the Pheu Thai defeat was that only 30 per cent of eligible voters exercised their voting rights, and turning of public sentiment against the government for its handling of the flooding.

Does Prompong not realize that his "turning of the public sentiment against the government" is tantamount to the exact same thing that Alongkorn said, but that Prompong "dismissed as groundless"?

He should not have quit his day job as a soap-opera actor.

.

[Buchholz]

For comparison, here is how district 5 in Pathum Thani voted last year

PTP - 49,242 - 55%

Democrat - 34,402 - 38%

BJT - 6,026 - 6%

Interesting that this was a seat that PTP won with a majority of the vote, as many of their seats outside of the N and NE were not. You'd expect it more in one of the seats they won with 30% of the vote, not in one with a majority.

That aspect certainly lends credence to Korn's remark:

He made the whole thing as if it was for fun and has taken public support for granted.

.

[animatic]

It would appear that PTP's 'lack of performance for the people', is being noted by the electorate,

by either active disinterest in them and their policies, or apathetic ennui to even vote for them.

Not to mention the political extent of what caused the flood to be worse, and it's aftermath.

Pretty stupid to have the lawsuit by PTP against the Dems for getting aid supplies for flood victims

come to a head and be thrown out just before the election, showed how the flood relief were used

as a political cudgel and not an impartial aide to the people as it should have been.

It is no doubt partly a sea change caused buy the excessive water issue,

but also a growing distrust they will do their actual promises, besides work for Thaksin.

And very possibly the spectre of Charter Amendment/Thaksin Help schemes showing likelihood

of reviving the situation that caused the last coup and the PAD in the streets phenomenon.

I'd venture the mass of the people are more than a little tired of having the economy,

and their lives disrupted by yet another round of all the political infighting.

[thaihome]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

TH

[pipo1000]

For comparison, here is how district 5 in Pathum Thani voted last year

PTP - 49,242 - 55%

Democrat - 34,402 - 38%

BJT - 6,026 - 6%

Interesting that this was a seat that PTP won with a majority of the vote, as many of their seats outside of the N and NE were not. You'd expect it more in one of the seats they won with 30% of the vote, not in one with a majority.

Might have been of interest if you also posted this year results in comparison.

[whybother]

For comparison, here is how district 5 in Pathum Thani voted last year

PTP - 49,242 - 55%

Democrat - 34,402 - 38%

BJT - 6,026 - 6%

Interesting that this was a seat that PTP won with a majority of the vote, as many of their seats outside of the N and NE were not. You'd expect it more in one of the seats they won with 30% of the vote, not in one with a majority.

Might have been of interest if you also posted this year results in comparison.

Or you could look for them yourself ...

Unofficial results of by-election in Pathum Thani's Constituency 5 sees Democrat candidate win 27,981 votes while Pheu Thai won 24,119 votes /TAN_Network

[Buchholz]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

local Red Shirt aficionado nostitz's comments after the previous election would support your points as the UDD apparently played a major role in the previous PTP MP in Pathum Thani getting elected.

The the large working class areas such as Don Mueang, Pathum Thani or Samut Prakan especially have very strong Red Shirt organizations, also reflected in the elections in which you saw in those areas clear election victories of Puah Thai Party.

Edit to Add:

Hmmm... when that is coupled with the low voter turnout for this election, perhaps a lot of the Red Shirts didn't make it back in time from the Thaksin Tribute in Siem Reap, Cambodia and that cost the PTP the by-election.

.

.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Buchholz

[whybother]

The MP that resigned causing this by-election (Sumet Rithakhani) lost the PAO election by a huge margin to the former PAO head Chan Phuangphet (an independent) by 110,974 to 214,429 votes.

[samran]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

TH

Perhaps the UDD should stick a 'D' at the start of their acronym then....

[lovetotravel]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

TH

We can only hope the Thai people finally start focusing on things that matter. Rather than letting their elected officials line their pockets while they keep getting poorer. Easy for Thaksin to push populist policies in a rapidly growing economy. Completely different now.

[Buchholz]

The MP that resigned causing this by-election (Sumet Rithakhani) lost the PAO election by a huge margin to the former PAO head Chan Phuangphet (an independent) by 110,974 to 214,429 votes.

oops....

[animatic]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

local Red Shirt aficionado nostitz's comments after the previous election would support your points as the UDD apparently played a major role in the previous PTP MP in Pathum Thani getting elected.

The the large working class areas such as Don Mueang, Pathum Thani or Samut Prakan especially have very strong Red Shirt organizations, also reflected in the elections in which you saw in those areas clear election victories of Puah Thai Party.

Edit to Add:

Hmmm... when that is coupled with the low voter turnout for this election, perhaps a lot of the Red Shirts didn't make it back in time from Siem Reap, Cambodia cost the PTP the by-election.

.

.

There Is No Joy In Mudville, Mighty Casey Has Struck Out,

or

How the strange bedfellows are fighting over the sheets.

I'd venture the Reds didn't get all the perks they expected,

similar to far lefts back lashing on Obama.

And the PTP capitalists are worrying about Reds being far too far, far left

to be safe to encourage further, now that PTP has stolen back the trough...

Edited April 23, 2012 by animatic

[moe666]

Waiting for the PTP supporters to come in and put their spin on it, surely they have a good excuse.

[FOODLOVER]

Did the checks bounce?

[h90]

For comparison, here is how district 5 in Pathum Thani voted last year

PTP - 49,242 - 55%

Democrat - 34,402 - 38%

BJT - 6,026 - 6%

Interesting that this was a seat that PTP won with a majority of the vote, as many of their seats outside of the N and NE were not. You'd expect it more in one of the seats they won with 30% of the vote, not in one with a majority.

That aspect certainly lends credence to Korn's remark:

He made the whole thing as if it was for fun and has taken public support for granted.

.

That means he didn't hand out the usual 500 Baht.

That why only 30 % went voting.

It doesn't mean anything if the government is popular or not. The usual PTP supporter doesn't see any reason to go voting beside collecting his money.

[konfuzed]

there was stuff all people voting... that was the main issue... my wife - a former PTP supporter - note not redshirt - said she couldn't be bothered to vote cause they are all equally useless and what's the point in voting when you get the same crap anyway...

[americaninbangkok]

Did the checks bounce?

No... this year, the money normally used to "encourage" support of PTP was used to fund songkran bashes in Laos and Cambodia (all those MPs needed to get up there and back, right?!), and to buy iPads and iPhones for MPs. So with little in the way of incentives or promises delivered --- such as increased minimum wages, home and car buyer credits, tablets for every child, or no-flood guarantees --- who would be convinced to put their vote toward another PTP candidate?

[phiphidon]

Perhaps it may have helped if the party leader visited the electorate to support the candidate, but he/she was out of the country.

It is more likely that Yingluck weighed up the options of suporting a local by election or attending the Japan - Mekong Summit. The Summit won it seems and maybe it was just a bit more important as the Japanese Government pledged 227 Billion baht in aid to develop infrastructure in the 5 Mekong Region countries which includes Thailand.

[h90]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

TH

Or maybe just a test. How much they get without vote buying. So they can optimize it next time. Kind of market research.

[h90]

Perhaps it may have helped if the party leader visited the electorate to support the candidate, but he/she was out of the country.

It is more likely that Yingluck weighed up the options of suporting a local by election or attending the Japan - Mekong Summit. The Summit won it seems and maybe it was just a bit more important as the Japanese Government pledged 227 Billion baht in aid to develop infrastructure in the 5 Mekong Region countries which includes Thailand.

The question is how many votes would have cost the PTP if Yingluck shows her face in a flood area.....

[webfact]

Red-shirt minister Natthawut says Pathum Thani election defeat of Pheu Thai doesn't signify public's distrust of govt, urges govt to perform /TANN

[whybother]

Red-shirt minister Natthawut says Pathum Thani election defeat of Pheu Thai doesn't signify public's distrust of govt, urges govt to perform /TANN

What does it signify? That the electorate don't want the PTP in office?

[gregb]

As much as I would like to think that this was an indication of the Thai electorate trying to evolve intelligence, I don't think that is what happened here. The government was at a severe disadvantage in this case. First, there are still thousands of people who are as of yet unable to move back into their homes due to the severe damage the flood caused. You have to remember flood waters were more than 3 meters deep in some of these areas. I know of a displaced family who travelled 4 hours just to vote in the by election in order to voice their dissatisfaction with how things were handled. I assume they voted Democrat.

Next, the government promised everyone in the area 20,000 baht because it was a severe flood damaged area. They made hundreds of thousands jump through unreasonable hoops to take photos and submit documentation, and after 4 months not a single person has received their promised assistance. Note to the ruling party: when you promise pissed off people money due to your bad policies and then don't actually give it, don't be surprised when those people hate you for it.

Finally, the PT just didn't need this election. Everyone in the party knew they were at a severe disadvantage because of the flood. Why spend a bunch of money trying to win an election that is likely to be a lost cause anyway, and which basically will have no effect on your larger policies? The UDD didn't organize because no funding was offered to organize.

So the reason the PT lost here is not because their methods of manipulation of the electorate are becoming ineffective, but because they recognized that under these special circumstances where people were seriously angry with them and they didn't need the seat, that it wasn't an efficient use of their resources.

The PT likely still controls the ballot box, and the contempt with which they hold the rest of the country will almost certainly still cause widespread violence. The only way to avoid the coming violent confrontation is for the Thai electorate to stop thinking of themselves and start thinking of their posterity. As much as I hate Thaksin and wish it were different, this vote doesn't indicate that it is what is occurring. This is just more people thinking of themselves and not giving a dam_n about the larger context of society nor the rule of law.

It may be a minor win for the Democrats, but it does nothing to dissuade me that we are heading towards civil war.

[allan michaud]

The most likely reason for the Democrat win was the UDD did not fully mobilize in support of the PTP candidate. The reason for this is not known, but it could be due to UDD dissatisfaction with the PTP for allowing an MP for whom the UDD had spent a lot of effort in getting elected to just quit after 8 months and run in the PAO president race.

Another reason may be it is not so easy these days to get people all excited about the UDD’s cause as most everything they spouted was about an un-elected, appointed government run by the Democrats. Now that the PTP is running the government, there is little to complain about without addressing the issues the UDD’s behind the scenes supporters will not allow to be discussed. Things like land reform, income inequality, local monopolies, etc.

local Red Shirt aficionado nostitz's comments after the previous election would support your points as the UDD apparently played a major role in the previous PTP MP in Pathum Thani getting elected.

The the large working class areas such as Don Mueang, Pathum Thani or Samut Prakan especially have very strong Red Shirt organizations, also reflected in the elections in which you saw in those areas clear election victories of Puah Thai Party.

Edit to Add:

Hmmm... when that is coupled with the low voter turnout for this election, perhaps a lot of the Red Shirts didn't make it back in time from the Thaksin Tribute in Siem Reap, Cambodia and that cost the PTP the by-election.

.

.

Except that less than 7,400 reds entered Cambodia (Cambodian figures) to see the big T, so unless they all came from Pathum Thani it had no effect

[drdoom6996]

PTP can believe what they want, but if PTP start doing what they said they would do. And stop trying to do what ONLY 1/65th of the population wants them to do. They may find their friends again. If you get 1 million who people to want the constitution changed so Taksin can come back it seems like you have a lot of supporters. Obviously, you don't have 64/65ths who are against this process or have no opinion.

You may find that so many people of afraid of what PTP may do next, behind the populations back, that they simply vote against PTP. In less that a year Thailand already wants to change from who/what Thailand thought they voted for.

[phiphidon]

It would appear that PTP's 'lack of performance for the people', is being noted by the electorate,

by either active disinterest in them and their policies, or apathetic ennui to even vote for them.

Not to mention the political extent of what caused the flood to be worse, and it's aftermath.

Pretty stupid to have the lawsuit by PTP against the Dems for getting aid supplies for flood victims

come to a head and be thrown out just before the election, showed how the flood relief were used

as a political cudgel and not an impartial aide to the people as it should have been.

It is no doubt partly a sea change caused buy the excessive water issue,

but also a growing distrust they will do their actual promises, besides work for Thaksin.

And very possibly the spectre of Charter Amendment/Thaksin Help schemes showing likelihood

of reviving the situation that caused the last coup and the PAD in the streets phenomenon.

I'd venture the mass of the people are more than a little tired of having the economy,

and their lives disrupted by yet another round of all the political infighting.

"Pretty stupid to have the lawsuit by PTP against the Dems for getting aid supplies for flood victims

come to a head and be thrown out just before the election, showed how the flood relief were used

as a political cudgel and not an impartial aide to the people as it should have been."

So you're saying that the Thai public took this idea on and voted against the PTP?

Whilst at the same time a case against 7 PTP MP's by the democrat party for "allegedly interfering in the work of government officials in the distribution of flood relief supplies" was also dismissed as groundless, you are saying that only the PTP were using flood relief "as a political cudgel and not an impartial aide to the people as it should have been".

More hyprocisy. For once I agree with Abhisit who put the low turnout (30%) down to the public being fed up with both political parties.

[Buchholz]

Did the checks bounce?

No... this year, the money normally used to "encourage" support of PTP was used to fund songkran bashes in Laos and Cambodia (all those MPs needed to get up there and back, right?!), and to buy iPads and iPhones for MPs. So with little in the way of incentives or promises delivered --- such as increased minimum wages, home and car buyer credits, tablets for every child, or no-flood guarantees --- who would be convinced to put their vote toward another PTP candidate?

especially if that candidate would only quit in a few months after winning in order to run for election for a different position in which he then gets trounced?

.