Thailand 'Needs Proper System To Predict Quakes'

[Lite Beer]

Thailand 'needs proper system to predict quakes'

Pratch Rujivanarom

The Nation

BANGKOK:-- Thailand still does not have a proper scientific method of predicting earthquakes, a university lecturer has warned.

"When the 5.9-magnitude earthquake hit Kanchanaburi in 1983, the locals were caught off guard," Dr Weerachai Siriphanvaraphon from Mahidol University's faculty of science told a seminar.

He was speaking at a discussion titled "We Can Handle Disaster When We Understand Nature", which was held as part of the seventh Science and Technology Conference that took place at Bitec Bang Na from Wednesday until Friday. The event was organised by the Institute for the Promotion of Teaching Science and Technology to raise public awareness about natural disasters.

Weerachai explained that Thailand had many active faults that could endanger the public, though they would be unlikely to cause a massive earthquake.

Over the past few years, Thailand has faced many natural disasters, with some causing high casualties and massive damage. For instance, the 2004 tsunami claimed thousands of lives in the South.

Dr Wattana Kanbua of the Meteorological Department said nobody had ever imagined that Thailand would be hit by a tsunami and that this lack of awareness had cost dearly. He pointed out that the tsunami could, in fact, have been predicted and a warning issued in time.

"The 2004 tsunami taught Thailand an expensive lesson, but on the bright side, when a tsunami alert was issued in Phuket last month, the locals were quick to evacuate. The emergency response system has clearly improved, but we will need to improve further," Wattana said. The tsunami alert was issued on April 11.

Though Wattana encourages people to be alert, he also warns against panicking over rumours, such as the one about a tsunami hitting Bangkok.

"There is a very small possibility of a tsunami occurring in the Gulf of Thailand. People should not get too scared and should not believe in rumours. They should just keep up with official announcements," Wattana advised.

Meanwhile, Deputy PM and Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit established the Operation Centre for Flood, Storms and Landslides at the Interior Ministry yesterday.

In related news, the National Disaster Preparedness Day 2012 event was hosted yesterday at King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang's Faculty of Engineering to boost public awareness about increasing natural disasters and public participation in a disaster-preparedness network. The network's efforts and experiences shared at the event would be published at www.thaiflood.com as well as via social media channels.

-- The Nation 2012-05-06

[cloudhopper]

OMG

[Curt1591]

Now that Thailand's on it, earthquake prediction should be just around the corner!

[RickBradford]

Thailand still does not have a proper scientific method of predicting earthquakes, a university lecturer has warned.

Nor does any country in the world, despite the best efforts of, among others, the Japanese, who would benefit more than most from such a system.

[Crushdepth]

Actually, *nobody* has a system to predict quakes.

[Siriam]

There is not such thing as a system predicting earthquake... it's a global problem, why thailand should be blessed ?

[chiang mai]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

[Curt1591]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

[chiang mai]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

I didn't suggest it does predict, I said, "the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake" - ergo, analysis of the trends leads to a prediction!

[JetsetBkk]

Dr Wattana Kanbua of the Meteorological Department said nobody had ever imagined that Thailand would be hit by a tsunami...

...except Dr Smith Dharmasaroja, former Director of the National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC).

[whybother]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

I didn't suggest it does predict, I said, "the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake" - ergo, analysis of the trends leads to a prediction!

Isn't a "subtle plate movement" an earthquake?

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[Valentine]

Dr Wattana Kanbua of the Meteorological Department said nobody had ever imagined that Thailand would be hit by a tsunami...

...except Dr Smith Dharmasaroja, former Director of the National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC).

Yes & I think he got fired after his warning.

[Soupdragon]

If you discuss earthquake prediction I think a time scale should be included.

Saying there will be a quake sometime in the next millennium isn't really helpful.

The technology simply does not exist to predict quakes in a timely fashion.

[chiang mai]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

I didn't suggest it does predict, I said, "the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake" - ergo, analysis of the trends leads to a prediction!

Isn't a "subtle plate movement" an earthquake?

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Anything less than 2.0 on the Richter scale is not regarded as an earthquake but is instead regarded as a micro-earthquake which cannot be felt.

[creck]

Thailand needs a lot of things

Some of them are possible

This is not not one of them

[whybother]

Isn't a "subtle plate movement" an earthquake?

Anything less than 2.0 on the Richter scale is not regarded as an earthquake but is instead regarded as a micro-earthquake which cannot be felt.

But it's still an eathquake. And it's still not a "predictor".

[folium]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

I didn't suggest it does predict, I said, "the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake" - ergo, analysis of the trends leads to a prediction!

Quake prediction to be of any value needs to provide 3 key pieces of data:

Where

When

What magnitude (amount of energy released)

At present it is possible to be reasonably specific about the where in areas that have been intensively researched as there tend to be "gaps" along a plate boundary between historically recent quakes. Basically one section will rupture leading to increased pressure and strain on an un-ruptured section of the plate boundary. However quakes even in their location can spring surprises, the Japanese quake in Mar 2011 was in an area that was not supposed to experience quakes of that magnitude and the Christchurch, NZ quakes in Sep 2010 and Feb 2011 were partly along a previously unknown fault.

With the San Andreas the analogy is that of a set of freight cars linked together with rather rusty couplings moving slowly & intermittently NW along the track. Pressure builds up and sometimes just one of the cars will jolt forwards but this means greater pressure on the car behind and so on. Occasionally there is a big movement forward.....

Edited May 6, 2012 by folium

[chiang mai]

Isn't a "subtle plate movement" an earthquake?

Anything less than 2.0 on the Richter scale is not regarded as an earthquake but is instead regarded as a micro-earthquake which cannot be felt.

But it's still an eathquake. And it's still not a "predictor".

Yes, but the sum of all the micro-earthquakes over time indicates trend, that data serves as the basis for a prediction.

[1weatherman]

I believe the Chinese have a system and are ready to sell it to the Thai government. With the purchase of one earthquake prediction system for 1.9 billion baht they will throw in for free 1 million computer tablets. What a bargain.

[whybother]

Yes, but the sum of all the micro-earthquakes over time indicates trend, that data serves as the basis for a prediction.

But if micro-quakes are happening, that would suggest that "slipping" is happening. It's when the slipping stops that there is more likely to be a larger quake. But you can't predict when that will happen.

[folium]

Isn't a "subtle plate movement" an earthquake?

Anything less than 2.0 on the Richter scale is not regarded as an earthquake but is instead regarded as a micro-earthquake which cannot be felt.

But it's still an eathquake. And it's still not a "predictor".

Yes, but the sum of all the micro-earthquakes over time indicates trend, that data serves as the basis for a prediction.

If you have a proven prediction method you are worth billions!

No one has yet come up with a system that can hit all 3 components on a consistent basis whether it be by studying the behaviour of toads, microearthquakes, radon emissions or whatever.

[chiang mai]

Yes, but the sum of all the micro-earthquakes over time indicates trend, that data serves as the basis for a prediction.

But if micro-quakes are happening, that would suggest that "slipping" is happening. It's when the slipping stops that there is more likely to be a larger quake. But you can't predict when that will happen.

Using your logic, slipping is in itself a micro earthquake that can measured on a seismograph, I couldn't begin to guess how the analysis is done but perhaps a cesation of micro earthquakes is a part of it. As for the when, a prediction is the forecasting of a future event, not necessarily with timescales.

[chrisinth]

It is sad that the first thing that comes to mind is that this is an oppertunity to exploit monies granted to setup an early warning system.

Maybe I have been here too long............

Thailand would be making ground breaking (pardon the pun) advances in early warning quake detection if it ever happened.

[allan michaud]

Outstanding... and some people on TV wonder why so many posters laugh at the Thai's.

[dude007]

Could this smart professor tell me which country has a reliable prediction method for earth quakes and if so, based exactly on what parameters?

If not, the professor would have done better in changing the title of his conference...

[chinook]

i just heard they're going to buy new cards for the GT200 that will enable them to predict earthquakes.

[whybother]

Yes, but the sum of all the micro-earthquakes over time indicates trend, that data serves as the basis for a prediction.

But if micro-quakes are happening, that would suggest that "slipping" is happening. It's when the slipping stops that there is more likely to be a larger quake. But you can't predict when that will happen.

Using your logic, slipping is in itself a micro earthquake that can measured on a seismograph, I couldn't begin to guess how the analysis is done but perhaps a cesation of micro earthquakes is a part of it. As for the when, a prediction is the forecasting of a future event, not necessarily with timescales.

It's pointless predicting an earthquake if you don't have any idea when (even within a reasonable timeframe) it is going to happen.

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[woodyleonhard]

Read the article. At no point is Dr Weerachai quoted as saying, precisely, "Thailand 'needs proper system to predict quakes'"

Everything in the body of the article attributed to Dr W is quite reasonable.

Is it possible that some over-eager headline writer mis-interpreted Dr W's statement?

[Morgo]

I think my dog can predict earthquakes because she can sense when someone is at the the front gate. So if the good professor is interested, I can phone in when she barks and there isn't anyone at the gate. Would that make her eligible for an early warning grant?

[lungmi]

Thailand has the best qualified people to predict earthquakes: the future tellers.

The problem is, their informations are not evaluated by a computer analysis following the mathematical model of the chaos theory.