Pound Hits 50, How Long Will The Trend Last?

[thaibeachlovers]

One for the financial experts.

I have a load of Sterling that I've been waiting to change while the rate has been so low.

Any thoughts on whether the trend will continue or fall again? I'd hate to change now and the rate keep going up.

I know it's guesswork at best, but would appreciate any advice from those that should know more about it than I.

Thanks.

[chiang mai]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

[cardholder]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

I always think it is dangerous to use 'unquestionably' in a statement.

[chiang mai]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

I always think it is dangerous to use 'unquestionably' in a statement.

Unquestionably, I agree, (as far as I'm concerned).

But more seriously, I can see nothing on any front in the UK economy that suggests things are getting better, if anything things are getting worse hence there is no reason, independant of the EUR risk issues, that suggests GBP should be strengthening. All Asian currencies have fallen because of Europe so there is nothing particular about the Thai economy to suggest it is weaker than any other, on the contrary, future GDP growth estimates put Thailand in a very positive light, especially when compared to the UK.

[thaibeachlovers]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

Hmmmm. It's been trending up ever so slightly for a long time, but you may be right about it being an abberation.

Decisions decisions.

Thanks to both that answered so far.

[thaibeachlovers]

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

[Thongkorn]

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Maybe not, maybe the other way. Country's will se Britain as a safe haven for currency, With low interest rates it will be a good place to try and borrow money. Also England will have to watch the boarders, if the Euro collapses the channel will have to be watched along with the airports, for people trying to withdraw there money through British banks. it could be a bitter sweet thing for the UK in the long term. Spain and Italy are in difficulty s to, if they go then it is good night Euro, because Spain alone would drain all of the Euro money in trying to shore up the Euro.

Edited May 15, 2012 by Thongkorn

[CaptHaddock]

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Just the opposite is true. As the euro crisis continues the flight to safety in other major currencies, including the GBP and hte USD, also continues. Greece will probably exit in the next month or two further depressing the euro. And them the problems with Spain and Italy will not be over for a long time.

[scotinsiam]

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Maybe not, maybe the other way. Country's will se Britain as a safe haven for currency, With low interest rates it will be a good place to try and borrow money. Also England will have to watch the boarders, if the Euro collapses the channel will have to be watched along with the airports, for people trying to withdraw there money through British banks. it could be a bitter sweet thing for the UK in the long term. Spain and Italy are in difficulty s to, if they go then it is good night Euro, because Spain alone would drain all of the Euro money in trying to shore up the Euro.

I think you have it there, I agree the UK is not doing well but will be a safe(ish) haven in the short term as Greece / Spain etc leave the European Fiasco. I truly think the USD will strenghen in the coming months as Europe unravels - I fully realise the US situation but ........... it will prevail over the other currencies in the next year or so.

The USD wont be allowed to fail, they have the military night to ensure this.

[besth]

Most definitely my opinion is not unquestionable.

I agree with Chiang Mai that the Pound should be on a 1.50 (ish) level with the USD, but I think the USD should be around 35/37 (ish) to the THB, so that would make the Pound 54 (ish).

The strenght of the currency is not necessarily related to the strength of the economy and in this current world situation it is more difficult than ever to predict. That is still my very questionable opinion.

As far as where the Euro will go... who knows. Probably safer to bet on russian roulette than on where this currency will go.

I wouldn't be surprised if Greece was out of the Euro after this coming weekend. That is completely survivable by the rest of the Eurozone countries. The s*** will only hit the fan if any other countries need to follow. As Thongkorn says, either Spain or Italy would make the Euro impossible to save if any of the two went down.

[CaptHaddock]

The USD wont be allowed to fail, they have the military night to ensure this.

Pretty silly idea. Of what use was the military in the 2008 financial crisis?

[Thongkorn]

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

Edited May 15, 2012 by Thongkorn

[chiang mai]

I agree on the short term strength due to Euorpe and I agree that USD will strengthen, but not for the reasons you stated. Of course as USD strengthens then so does THB and that leaves GBP looking fairly poorly.

[Briggsy]

There has been a considerable withdrawal of foreign capital from the Thai stock markets. The result is a weakening Baht.

So now you can get 50 Baht to the £.

[chiang mai]

Most definitely my opinion is not unquestionable.

the Pound should be on a 1.50 (ish) level with the USD, but I think the USD should be around 35/37 (ish) to the THB, so that would make the Pound 54 (ish).

If you think the Pound should be 1.50 that means you think it should be weaker than it is currently, I can agree with that. But then you spoil it all by saying that you think the Pound should be stronger against THB at 54. You can't have it both ways unless you think that the Thai economy is a basket case and will fall significantly against both currencies, (which it isn't and it wont BTW).

[Huayrat]

Its gonna get stronger and stronger.. be 55 baht to the pound by the end of the year

[cooked]

It seems to me that the exchange rates also depend on the financial policies of the country involved.

Switzerland has been artificially keeping the Euro at 0.83 for weeks or months now, in order to keep exports on an even keel. (When we were getting 1 Euro for a Frank I, along with many other people living near the borders, went to France to do my shopping). This indirectly also affects the Thai Baht rate, which after jumping to 41 last August has been hovering around 33/34 for a long time now.

Switzerland does have the reserves to do this of course, but they will be back tracking some day I should imagine, something to look forward to in a selfish way for me.

[cardholder]

Its gonna get stronger and stronger.. be 55 baht to the pound by the end of the year

Didn't you say that this time last year, Del Boy

[apetley]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

[chiang mai]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

Nope, Mervin anounced yesterday that rates would remain as is, at least through 2013.

[tw25rw]

It seems to me that the exchange rates also depend on the financial policies of the country involved.

Switzerland has been artificially keeping the Euro at 0.83 for weeks or months now, in order to keep exports on an even keel. (When we were getting 1 Euro for a Frank I, along with many other people living near the borders, went to France to do my shopping). This indirectly also affects the Thai Baht rate, which after jumping to 41 last August has been hovering around 33/34 for a long time now.

Switzerland does have the reserves to do this of course, but they will be back tracking some day I should imagine, something to look forward to in a selfish way for me.

I spent last week in Switzerland. Until then, I had never considered the UK to be reasonably priced. Loved it there though.

[apetley]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

Nope, Mervin anounced yesterday that rates would remain as is, at least through 2013.

Maybe, maybe not, but if the economy improves the rates will have to rise to keep a lid of inflation.

Anyway, if I knew half as much as I wish I knew then I be alot wealthier than I am now.

After the last couple of years 50 seems bearable.

[RAZZELL]

How long do you want to wait?

At least at 50 it makes it easier to work out the price of a beer

RAZZ

[travelmann]

I dont see any trend its been hovering round that for a long time now.

[travelmann]

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

Did we sell them the cracks too?? or were they extra?

[taninthai]

I have seen this trend for the last 2 years don't know why but last may it hit 50 to which was a yearly high then come this may it did the same hit a yearly high always seems to happen just when going into low season don't worry the trend will continue and by the time we hit high season again it will be 47-48

[thenervoussurgeon]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

Nope, Mervin anounced yesterday that rates would remain as is, at least through 2013.

when was Mervyn ever right about anything? think back ,he has been about as much use as a chocolate spoon ,all he ever does is to talk the pound down.

[thenervoussurgeon]

I have seen this trend for the last 2 years don't know why but last may it hit 50 to which was a yearly high then come this may it did the same hit a yearly high always seems to happen just when going into low season don't worry the trend will continue and by the time we hit high season again it will be 47-48

Sorry but no way did it hit 50 last may at any time ,i brought over 5k and got 48.10 to the pound

[chiang mai]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

Nope, Mervin anounced yesterday that rates would remain as is, at least through 2013.

when was Mervyn ever right about anything? think back ,he has been about as much use as a chocolate spoon ,all he ever does is to talk the pound down.

That's his job, weaken the Pound thus exports can flow.

[HardenedSoul]

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

No the UK is NOT doing very well. It's just not doing as badly as the likes of Greece.

The fact of the matter is that austerity hasn't even really begun to bite down that hard yet and already the pips are squeaking. The country's technically back in recession, inflation remains anchored way above the BoE's target and the banks ain't lending. Make no mistake, things are going to get far, far worse in Britain and it'll take 5 years and a hell of a lot more quantitative easing before any sustainable, meaningful economic recovery takes hold.

If I was the OP, I'd change it up sharpish before the downtrend resumes.