Myanmar Economy: Second Wave Or False Dawn? Mon Aug 12, Fcct

[sabaijai]

Myanmar's economy: second wave or false dawn?

8pm, Monday August 20, 2012

Members Free, non-Members: 300 Baht

A quick menu will be available from the restaurant

After a year of high-profile political reforms, Myanmar's President Thein Sein has promised a "second wave" of changes, focused on Myanmar's economy.

Some western sanctions have been suspended, and the US recently gave companies the go-ahead to invest in Myanmar, including in controversial natural resource sectors such as oil and gas. The World Bank opened a new office in Myanmar at the beginning of August and parliament is revising the 1988 foreign investment law.

Foreign investors and local business people are scenting opportunity, while the country's citizens hopeful that this will mean jobs and increased living standards.

To discuss the state of Myanmar's economy, as well as the challenges and opportunities of doing business after decades of isolation, is a panel of analysts and business people, based in Myanmar and beyond.

Dr Sean Turnell is Associate Professor in Economics at Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia and a prolific commentator on the Myanmar economy, with op-eds in newspapers such as the Wall St Journal and is author of numerous papers and books, including 'Fiery Dragons: Banks, Moneylenders and Microfinance in Burma' (NIAS Press).

Khin Maung Nyo is a Yangon based economist and journalist/editor. He is senior research fellow at the Centre for Economic and Social Development, part of the Myanmar Development Resource Institute. He is also Chief Editor of the Street View journal, New Day Journal and the Smart News Journal

Luc de Waegh is founder and managing partner of West Indochina, which advises companies interested in doing business in Myanmar. Mr de Waegh has almost two decades of experience in Myanmar, having started up the British American Tobacco (BAT) subsidiary in the country in 1993.

Aung Zaw Oo is a Yangon-based businessman and founder of Aung Naing Thitsar Co.and is joint Secretary ofthe Myanmar Rice Industry Association (MRIA). He was previously on the board of the Myanmar Federation Chamber of Commerce Industry (UMFCCI).

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[tombkk]

Interesting.

[waza]

yes interesting

[DagonKhan]

Regime cronies become legitimate all of a sudden?

I don't think so!

No idea why Dr. Turnell would wish to share a podium with those 3.

Caveat emptor as they say.

[tombkk]

Who says that all panelists of a podium discussion must share the same opinion? This should become a very interesting event.

[DagonKhan]

Well do let us know what you thought of it.

[SeaVisionBurma]

Who says that all panelists of a podium discussion must share the same opinion? This should become a very interesting event.

Agreed - I'm going, looks quite interesting.

Surely has to be better than the presentation at the Sheraton Grande last month.....

[sabaijai]

Did anyone attend?

[SeaVisionBurma]

I went - quite good, although one of the speakers (talking about agriculture) wasn't exactly good at keeping the crowd enthralled - his talk and responses went on far too long.

Sean Turnell's speech was good - and I got to ask him a question

It was a packed out event - standing room only....

I wanted to get a DVD of the event for some friends in Yangon - but was informed I need to be a member of the FCCT to purchase one.

Anybody a member - or know a member - who would be willing to order one for me?

SVB

[tombkk]

Thanks SVB. I couldn't make it, it was the last evening before my trip to Myanmar, and I had to close a number of files in the office. I'd be interested in a DVD too, if somebody here can get them (legally, not pirated).

[sabaijai]

I went - quite good, although one of the speakers (talking about agriculture) wasn't exactly good at keeping the crowd enthralled - his talk and responses went on far too long.

Sean Turnell's speech was good - and I got to ask him a question

It was a packed out event - standing room only....

I wanted to get a DVD of the event for some friends in Yangon - but was informed I need to be a member of the FCCT to purchase one.

Anybody a member - or know a member - who would be willing to order one for me?

SVB

I'm a member, and on your recommendation will get a copy to view myself, then pass on to you if you'd like. Just send me a PM and can arrange.

Can you say more about the upshot of the discussion? Second wave or false dawn? Of course we know it's not that black and white, but did the panel as a whole lean more one way or the other?

[SeaVisionBurma]

One of the key things I heard was that for speculators without any knowledge of the country - consider it a false dawn.

I think Dr Turnell said something along the lines of "its a political miracle - don't confuse this with an economic miracle".....and this was backed up with some very clear statements on GDP projection by Luc De Waegh

From the evening's presentations, I read this two ways:

1. For those who are suddenly getting an interest in making a buck out of Myanmar - be clear that the current "hype" is purely because of a change in the political scene - there are still serious barriers to any economic benefit due to lack of infrastructure, plus the legislation still needs to catch up to what is required before any FDI can have any benefits...

2. Those that are familiar with the country, and how it works (ie those that already have time/experience/knowledge about Myanmar) - can certainly benefit...newbies have too much catching up to do....

Sabaijai - the DVD would be great to view again, its a bit hard to absorb everything on the spot.

I was going to PM tombkk to ask him which forum would be worthwhile to post in to ask if anyone could get a copy - if you are able to get one I would be happy to pay for a copy and pass it along to tombkk or vice versa.....

Hope this helps...

SVB

[SeaVisionBurma]

Couple of other points - the evening event was preceded by an ADB press conference/presentation earlier in the day. I didn't see that, but this was referred to in the evening and may be relevant to some of the context....

Outlook for the Burmese population was very upbeat - the current government was endorsed (ie particularly Thein Sein's pragmatic views) by the panel.

Most are waiting on the current changes in Foreign Direct Investment legislation to pass through parliament - to see what changes will occur.

The current tax holiday was criticised as being too generous to foreign companies investing - a comment was made that it was potentially alienating local Myanmar businesses. eg why wouldn't local Myanmar businesses simply make a silent partnership with say a Thai company - to enjoy the same tax holidays as actual foreign investors.....

[sabaijai]

Nice summary, thanks. Got your PM, will answer there.

[tombkk]

I was going to PM tombkk to ask him which forum would be worthwhile to post in to ask if anyone could get a copy - if you are able to get one I would be happy to pay for a copy and pass it along to tombkk or vice versa.....

Hope this helps...

SVB

I know only this forum... I was going to ask some friends whether they are member. However, sabaijai alreay replied and I'll send him a PM too.

[SeaVisionBurma]

Further to this topic - did anyone see Monday's BP Asia liftout?

There was an article entitled:

"Myanmar: great potential, but patience needed"

The theme of the article mimics much of what was discussed at the FCCT gig last week - I imagine the author was there.

I scanned a copy of the article - am I allowed to upload here?

Else PM me for it.

[tombkk]

Further to this topic - did anyone see Monday's BP Asia liftout?

There was an article entitled:

"Myanmar: great potential, but patience needed"

The theme of the article mimics much of what was discussed at the FCCT gig last week - I imagine the author was there.

I scanned a copy of the article - am I allowed to upload here?

Else PM me for it.

Sorry, you cannot upload it. The BP does not allow their contents, or even links to their website, be published on ThaiVisa. Check out Forum Rule number 31.

[SeaVisionBurma]

Thanks tombkk

Thought as much..

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