Yuan Tipped To Replace U.S. Dollar, Euro In Southeast Asia

[chainarong]

Pretty laughable. When are they going to let their currency float on the open market like everyone else?

It's funny that the US complains about this, but they seem to love many European countries fixing their currencies against the Euro. I think China will allow their currency to float more freely in the years to come, as they have already started doing. But they will do it at a time that suits them, not at a time that suits the US. Many US politicians seem to hate China, so why should China do what the US wants.

The real problem here is that the US has spent decades bullying other countries, but now they have picked on someone that they are unable to bully, and they don't like it. USA have finally met their match.

One problem is this. The USSR Stalinist led system collapsed. Mainland China is also Stalinist led. The political system is still the old unstable one. Bullying? Plenty of that to their own people. Just talk about the shutting up of parents protesting about their children buried underneath collapsing schools in the recent earthquake is one example. The political system rests upon an opening up of economic links with the west. The yuan is not convertible. It sits on US Treasuries, so I laugh when some say the US is finished. If it was it would bring down the PRC. Bullying others? Vietnam, PI, Japan, S.Korea all under China pressure. Careful what you wish for.

Some good articles come out every now and then in the H.K. Morning Post . About the only paper which portraits China in it's true light , although the mainland has tried to shut it up , as a mate said ,i'm taking 6 copies back to Oz , nobody will believe this. A good balanced article on the 90th anniversary of the comm party last year , very interesting, the predicted gradule break up over the next 50 years (RU) with free elections in HK in 2017 interesting times ahead,indeed, with the interviewing of the sons of the founding fathers,( old men now) the original members favoured, democracy, till high jacked by Mao

[LawrenceChee]

China interesting use different regions to try out differing policies

Hong kong is their test bed for democracies , Macau for gambling operations ....Shenzhen for manufacturing & free trade...Changchun up in the north for heavy machinery and cars and so on ...

[yoshiwara]

China interesting use different regions to try out differing policies

Hong kong is their test bed for democracies , Macau for gambling operations ....Shenzhen for manufacturing & free trade...Changchun up in the north for heavy machinery and cars and so on ...

and Taiwan for pointing the missiles.

[LawrenceChee]

Hahahahah no of missile has been reduced ...this is too political to discuss here at this forum

[lovetotravel]

Two interesting articles:

http://globalpublics...-u-s/?hpt=hp_c1

http://www.nytimes.c...dit_ae_20120817

Wish I could find the one regarding the corruption problems they are having with real estate and internal debt. It's a huge mess they are dealing with and looks like it will get worse.

[jayjayjayjay]

I honestly think Phathanaphong Phusuwan is being nice to the Thai-Chinese audience. In recent deals I've had clients in China insist on USD over Euro or Thai baht. Some clients do deal in Thai baht contracts but no Chinese company I have deals with insist on Yuan... So if their own company's don't deal in Yuan for international trade where is a region Yuan based market going to come from... not a chance in this lifetime.

[topt]

I honestly think Phathanaphong Phusuwan is being nice to the Thai-Chinese audience. In recent deals I've had clients in China insist on USD over Euro or Thai baht. Some clients do deal in Thai baht contracts but no Chinese company I have deals with insist on Yuan... So if their own company's don't deal in Yuan for international trade where is a region Yuan based market going to come from... not a chance in this lifetime.

Is this simply because the yuan is not easily available to trade in and when you do the exchange rate is not reflective of the reality - look at the rates Thai banks give you for example, the spread is terrible.?

Also our customers would not be able to buy Yuan but they can buy $US reasonably easily and would not accept a price that moved due to an exchange rate fluctuation..

Also many small, medium sized business owners seem to run their accounts offshore in HK and presumably want to keep that flexibility for real or only perceived issues.

[moe666]

The real problem here is that the US has spent decades bullying other countries, but now they have picked on someone that they are unable to bully, and they don't like it. USA have finally met their match.

Love it when these Yank politicians rant on about the Yuan, yet fail to mention QE.

Wonder what they would do if the Chinese stopped buying American debt.

All the USA does these days is issue IOUs, one day people will stop buying them, then what?

Most of the debt that the US owes is to its own citizens, we loan trillions to the government thru social security payments which are used to finance the daily operations. Yes we do owe china, japan, and a few others but most of the debt is owed to us the US citizen.

[moe666]

The US haters can carry on but until a country with the stability of the US comes along the dollar will be the currency of choice. Yes I know we have our problems too many to list here but there is a level of transparency that exist here that China will have a hard time emulateing. There is an exodus from the US stock markets of Chinese companies because they do not or cannot meet the accounting standards required of companies listed on US stock markets.

Yes someday the dollar will be replaced but not in my lifetime taken from Naams play book

If China was all that warm and fuzzy why are so many of its citizens with enough money relocateing to Canada and the US interesting story about this on the internet a while back. I believe if you have 500,000 to invest in the US green card no problem.

Edited August 30, 2012 by moe666

[LawrenceChee]

The postings have little understanding of the DNA of a Chinese ...they don't use their own yuan now because it is commercially not in their interest nothing to do with being warm or fuzzy ...just purely from a $$$$ perspective. They use hong long bank accounts not because they are disloyal but it's tax free to move $$$

The Chinese are not adverse to the 'stringent' US standards or requirement of the stock exchange ...they just see no value in the investment of such a rigid systems that produces as many failures as successes. There are certain us companies valued in china for their traits of being successful there is an equal amount which causes the to ask why these people are still around.

Again it's a value and $$$$ perspective so eventually will the yuan replace the dollar the answer is yes when it is commercially viable to do so and nothing to do with being no 1 in the world as some hold dearly to their currency being the default reserve currency

Their recent business dealings show you that ..they are willing to trade with anyone with money to be made...

Sent from my iPod touch using ThaiVisa app ; please excuse any typo errors

[yoshiwara]

The postings have little understanding of the DNA of a Chinese ...they don't use their own yuan now because it is commercially not in their interest nothing to do with being warm or fuzzy ...just purely from a $$$$ perspective. They use hong long bank accounts not because they are disloyal but it's tax free to move $$$

The Chinese are not adverse to the 'stringent' US standards or requirement of the stock exchange ...they just see no value in the investment of such a rigid systems that produces as many failures as successes. There are certain us companies valued in china for their traits of being successful there is an equal amount which causes the to ask why these people are still around.

Again it's a value and $$$$ perspective so eventually will the yuan replace the dollar the answer is yes when it is commercially viable to do so and nothing to do with being no 1 in the world as some hold dearly to their currency being the default reserve currency

Their recent business dealings show you that ..they are willing to trade with anyone with money to be made...

Sent from my iPod touch using ThaiVisa app ; please excuse any typo errors

Except for the Chinese companies listed on the NYSE and exposed by Muddy Waters amongst others as essentially fraudulent operations.

[LawrenceChee]

Heya yodiwara

Have a look at these 2 Chinese companies alibaba and Haier ...

Cheers

Sent from my iPod touch using ThaiVisa app ; please excuse any typo errors

[mccw]

i read just the other day that germany and china have agreedto settle trade in thier respective currencies and no longer the dollar. starting with japan last year i think this is just another step on trend to cut out the dollars use where not nessarcary. similar bilateral deals will likely be done within asean most probably over the next few years. maybe the asean market as a whole will agree to use yuan as a common trading currency.

expect this aswell as direct barter between governments to become increasingly common.

[Naam]

China, Germany plan to settle more trade in yuan, euros

Aug 30 (Reuters) - Germany and China plan to conduct an increasing amount of their trade in euros and yuan, the two nations said in a joint statement after talks between Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing on Thursday.

Both sides intend to support financial institutions and companies of both countries in the use of the renminbi and euro in bilateral trade and investments," said the text of the statement.

http://in.reuters.co...E7JG00D20120830

[mccw]

no longer rely only on the dollar i should have said. but the point remains that the world is progressively moving away from dollar as the defacto world trade currency. is this because its viewed as a basket case no longer reliable or simply that direct trade is more cost effective? bit of both probably

[mccw]

to be honest i didnt realise untip recently that dollar was used so widely. my natural assumption was trade would be settled in the currency of what ever nations or parties involved wanted it as per the contract. quite bizar to trade via the dollar really unless your countries a total mess

[LawrenceChee]

Slow and steady weaning off...

Sent from my iPod touch using ThaiVisa app ; please excuse any typo errors

[yoshiwara]

Heya yodiwara

Have a look at these 2 Chinese companies alibaba and Haier ...

Cheers

Sent from my iPod touch using ThaiVisa app ; please excuse any typo errors

The trouble is that whether it is fraud, cybertheft of intellectual capital, poor quality control, widespread corruption, poisoning of Chinese children (milk scandal), poitical oppression, deaths of Children (eartquake collapse of schools) the core of operations will always be reliant on the dollar. Success of individual companies not enough. Maybe you would like to mention which company has a rather high incidence of suicides by the workers.

Edited September 1, 2012 by yoshiwara

[LawrenceChee]

Yoshiwara have u been to china before ?

[yoshiwara]

Yoshiwara have u been to china before ?

Yes I have.

[LawrenceChee]

Good THB I will remind you of the following ...the most suicides in a factory was made for an American iconic product

The most food scares is generated in the west ,..remember our beefy brain issue and GMO food ?

The most parties USA has ever had in political freedom was 2 and never was a voting count uncontested

The most dramatic of natural disasters was not in the might of the incident but the human behavior after witness what china and Japan did vs the superdome

The political freedom u are looking for does not exist if u ask the blacks the Hispanic the Asians and the minority groups

As for the poor quality stuff...please stop shopping at Walmart and Ikea and start buying locally made stuff ...you want cheap you get cheap quality ...you want to pay for quality start going to the promenade when it opens ..every stich will cost you but it is good quality

Blah blah blah blah blah ..china has never denied it can do better ...

No country is perfect ...just get over china being in the spotlight it will make u happier

[lovetotravel]

That's not true LC. Suicides and disruptions are happening in factories all over China. Doesn't matter what country the products are made for, they are all run by Chinese. Most of what China produces is exported. Simple fact. It's the Chinese managers who are causing the problems.

http://libcom.org/ne...s-riot-26112008

http://www.triplepun...ys-sustainable/

What does this have to do with Western countries. Horrible how they treat their own people:

http://www.telegraph...-factories.html

http://www.asianews....p?l=en&art=9568

Check out this article on food safety in China. Nothing compared to the west. They are only concerned about one thing, making money:

http://www.nytimes.c...dit_ae_20120817

Though there are 2 major political parties in the US, there are many more that are just minor ones. Unlike in China, where there is one:

http://en.wikipedia....e_United_States

Political freedom? Why do so many Chinese want to leave their country? The US is the country of freedom and opportunity. Well known fact. Some 30,000 immigrate to Canada every year. even more to the US. And even more if you put all the other Asian countries together. Must me immigrating to other countries for a reason?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Chinese

The Yuan will never be an international standard until there is more transparency and free flow of funds. My best friend works in Shanghai. He has a terrible time getting his money out of the country. Has to jump through hoops to do it.

China is an economic super power. But not ready to be a financial super power. That may happen in time, but not in my lifetime.

And yes, I've spent a lot of time in China.

[how241]

I think it is only a matter of time before the USD is no longer used as the global reserve currency, its continuing instability and the massive debt that is dragging it down and weakening the currency, the question then is what will replace it? I cannot see the Yuan being used as a reserve currency in the long run, the question still remains, what will replace the USD, any guesses?

Your right but in our life time? I'm so sure about that.

[LawrenceChee]

Heya lovetotravel

I have spent a lot of time in dongguan the manufacturing hub of the world ...almost anything u get worldwide that has a made in china stamp in done here in one of the factories

I agree that the conditions are deplorable in some factories and the managers drive the workers hard...too hard at times....there is a lot of room for improvement however they are at the bottom end of the chain

If u speak to the owners, they do blame the western countries u ask what it has to do with the west, as you correctly point out its an export based economy

They make what the west wants, if the customer want a cheap pair of jeans, a plastic jug, a toy or a pair of branded sneakers ...the end users has a lot to do in improving the lot and conditions

Like the western companies that shifted their bases here in Thailand and china Vietnam or the likes it is to make more money the Chinese firms are no different from any western MNC, they want to make money as it is the base of commerce ...they point out apple as the best shining example to them...cool designs, solid protection, cash flow and expensive and marketing they all aim to e like that Haier and alibaba are 2 examples of companies who have beat the odds ...there are other good examples ...am I naive to think they don't cheat at some level ...every company does that at some point as if is human natured driven not cultures ...

I was there recently to assist a Chinese owner negotiate with a reputable hotel chain ...one of the big boys based in the west, they wanted a toiletry set (consisting of the usual mods) for 2 cents each.

In the room, you have some fat cats procurement director telling them 'this is china , it can be done I don't care how' , the owner was asking for 5 cents so that he can pay his workers 25 yuan more daily ...the director said no I will find someone else. The Chinese boss spat at the table and walked out saying he will not allow his workers to die for a few cents...do I wish there was more Chinese owners like him ...I hope so who don't just look at the dollars..am I also realistic enough to know this director walked to the next factory lane and got the price he wanted ...I am sure someone said yea

No culture or nationalities is safe as long as the consumers want it cheap...with the recent global pressures I can of see this worsening and not improving.

As for food safety, the government is trying to get it right to feed 1.3billion people who are rising in their purchasing powers ...u cannot inspect every factory and they know it must be better..thankfully they have the guts to shoot the idiots who want to make a quick buck over safety..will it deter everyone, the answer is simply no as the country is too big and vast to govern Every single factory or supervisor

The Chinese are also curious about democracy, it's true they never vote but they know who is in power for 10 years and his personality ...an there is some surety in that to them

they also asked me often how does it feel to vote as I straddle between easy and west and looking at some western politics it's amusing to them as the politicians are caught doing the same corrupt stuff as their own apointed officials they really don't see the difference ...what's the big deal ...as for the press highlighting the brutality of their government police, they point out the regularity it happens in western environments too ..they know it is not right and like many here depend on the integrity of those who serve to do better

As for the immigration to the west, since we are all here in Chiang Mai exploring options ...I am not sure what is the fuss about Chinese moving out to see the world...even 1 million migrating yearly is small in context of their population. My ancestors moved out more than 100 years ago and it has always been happening ...kkkkk everyone would agree there is a Chinese restaurant in almost every western country out there

So like everyone else they are going out to see what the world has, to see of there is a better option just like all of us here in Chiang Mai

Will I see some changes in my lifetime ...I hope so.

[lovetotravel]

Understood. But it's also the responsibility of the Chinese to provide good working conditions for the employees. The rich are getting very rich in China. The poor are still poor. Can't blame the West for that. They are told a toiletry set can be made for X. Procurement people always negotiate. As do the Chinese. The managers always make sure they get a good profit, at the expense of the workers.

I'm not a big fan of unions, but it does help protect the workers. Something desperately needed in this part of the world.

China is changing a lot. Mostly for the better. Their infrastructure is great. Then again, on my last trip, I did see road workers out with hand tools cutting away at rocks to make a new road. You would never see that in the West.

Best of luck to the Chinese.

[yoshiwara]

You will have a little difficulty blaming the Sichuan schools corruption scandal on the West http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan_schools_corruption_scandal

Or for that matter the China Milk Scandal http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal

Both are typical of the systematic effort of the State system to cover up corruption and abuse of power.

[LawrenceChee]

Not sure what you want to read Yoshiwara so that you have a great Sunday ...guess you need to read this

""""Wow what a bad government for covering up the milk scandal and the shoddy schoold they built that killed the kids in the earthquake """"" same on them shame on them """"""

They already shot the guys dead responsible how much more do you want them to blame or cover up ?

I am flying to NYC next month where the same guys that made people lose their houses and retirement funds are still drinking their lattes ...what a great transparency system we all need :-)

Makes u feel better ? Have a great Sunday ...enjoy dinner !

[LawrenceChee]

Thanks for the balanced views lovetotravel...I agree they are not perfect and more needs to be done and improved for the ordinary people

Best of luck in doing that for the next decade for their people ...

[lovelomsak]

If any currency is going to be strongly used in southeast asia for trade it will be the Thai baht. If you have read many of my posts you will know I am a firm believer that Thailand will have the currency most attractive for this. This will even become more desirable for other asian nations in the near future to maintain trade. Trade within Asian ciuntries will become necessary because of world economic crises. Asia will localize and use the Thai baht as the currency for trade.

[puck2]

Most of the debt that the US owes is to its own citizens, we loan trillions to the government thru social security payments which are used to finance the daily operations. Yes we do owe china, japan, and a few others but most of the debt is owed to us the US citizen.

Wishful thinking !

The US already depend partly on foreign countries and institutions buying their bonds. It's the tremendous and once uncontrollable amount of debt which will make the US currency break down, if the FED will not stop printing new money year by year. Imagine what happens, if they cannot sell their state bonds.

The public debt was more than 15 trillion USD at the end of 2011 or ~ 100% of the GDP. For 2012 the IMF calculates the US publ. debts higher than 16 trillion USD, what is ~ 105% of the GDP. For members unaccustomed to the big numbers

1 million - 1.000.000

1 billion - 1.000.000.000

1 trillion - 1.000.000.000.000

The interest allone for 2012 will be about 225 billion USD . At now the USD interest rates are very low! But how long? If the rates (must) go up then the state has the same problem as the house owners in 2007/8

In non US coffers there are as of June 2012

5.292 USD foreign ownership is approximately 1/3 of the US budget debts. Although the private debts are „declining“, they are still very high what is dangerous for the nation and the USD.

What do you think about paying back these horrendous budget debts?

Even if the US would be able to fulfill their public obligations it would take at least 16 years reducing the public debts by only 1 billion(!) - without the accumulated interest.

But that seems to be impossible. The US and all the other debt ridden states will be punished for one anomaly - the highest ever created debt -built up since 1982, both public and private.

There is a high possibility that many western currencies including the USD will go bankrupt. It's only a question of time. Some reasons in a nutshell.

- To run into unsecured high debt means always to live beyond one's means. You spend more than you are earning. That won't last forever.

If you (small fish) wouldn't once finish borrowing the bank would tell you: STOP. And you would lose all your pawns, if you are not able to repay.

The state bankrupt? That works vice versa. The banks are very lenient with the official debts. Having bought state bonds and the currency going bankrupt, you small fish are the only loser. Therefore no special politcal and bankster interest of debt reducing, apart from political angst to lose the next election.

- higher public debts --> higher burden, lower budged spending, lower income

- high private lending is a load for the future. Even the US have now an aging population.

- buy now pay later is very dangerous especially when the interests go up(hill).

Unreasonably high, speculativ and not 100% secured mortgages to the house owners, that happened under FED-Guru(?) Greenspan's closed eyes. He was too stupid or didn't like to realise the danger of the (private) house loan defaults.

- printing money excessively may stimulate the economy temporarily, but is certainly a Ponzi system à la Madoff. It will crash. They pay the debts by new debts.

- since the end of Bretton Woods the Western money system got out of control, step by step. Money is treated as a casino chip by the piggish, irresponsible banksters (that on the top).

Because the Western banks and states have gambled with their debts and aren't changing their habits, it's time to go into safer harbours or to create a new world-currency which doesn't depend on the US alone. The money system needs an in-depth reform.

At now there are also discussions if

a. the world shouldn't return to a - modified - Bretton Woods system (gold standard)

or

b. reducing the not secured money (casino money of the financial institutions); it should be more state regulated than bank(ster) regulated.

You can find ethical, political and other points against China and it's Yuan as a leading world currency, but you cannot deny that the Chinese did their financial job very well, both publical and private.

The Chinese - as USD creditors - can cause a big problem to the US currency, if they don't mind the giant loss. It doesn't count that some of their products don't have world standard - at now. Once we laughed about the Japanese cars. And now? The Chinese are already able letting people fly into the orbit.

The choice between USD and the Yuan is the same like between Scylla and Charybdis. If the relevant money institutions cannot change their casino habit and organise a new system, give the Chinese a chance. It cannot become worse.

(I hope you can understand my poor English)