Thailand Tourist Arrivals To Hit 20 Million This Year

[SICHONSTEVE]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

I think you mean baht not bucks!!!

[noob7]

Yes, as always in Thailand, the rich get richer.

That is a world rule, not a Thai rule!

[fredKroket]

Mr Suwat said the ministry goal for tourism revenue was set to reach Bt2 trillion in 2015

These numbers seem to just roll off the tongues of these ministers, 15 million visitors so far this year? Someone forgot to tell the restaurant and bars, because all I hear is that it has been a quiet year! They may have had 15 million 'pass through' the airport transit lounges.

Chiangmai officials said that tourism was down something like 8% (cant recall exact figure) but it WAS down.

No doubt when Oct 2015 arrives Mr Suwat (if he is still in office) will say loud and clear, "we have had 1.5 Trillion visitors so far this year and are well on target to achieve the 2 Trillion I predicted three years ago"

Did it occur to you that the types of visitor now visiting Thailand don't even enter a bar or western style restaurant, they may not even go into a Thai restaurant. The reason I say this is because a few years ago in Pattaya there were just a handful of Indian restaurants, now there is one wherever you look, the same goes for Phuket. Indian and middle eastern visitors aren't really known for their barfly activities, so the bars could also be suffering through the switch in demographics.

Looking around Pattaya you can see large areas of bars being replaced by shops and hotels, I would hazard a guess that this will be the shape of things to come and the bars will be pushed out to other locations. You should also take into account the amount of package tourists coming in from places like China and other Asian countries, the only time you see these visitors is when they're getting on or off their coaches. They generally have all inclusive packages at their hotels, so no need to eat in a restaurant and again they're not ones for hanging around beer bars. Last year more visitors from Vietnam arrived in Pattaya than from the UK, surprising isn't it?

Russians also aren't known to be adventurous and tend to stick to Russian restaurants, you very rarely see a Russian in a beer bar usually because he's with his wife or standing outside 7-11 with a bottle of Chang!

[andre47]

Mr Suwat said the ministry goal for tourism revenue was set to reach Bt2 trillion in 2015

These numbers seem to just roll off the tongues of these ministers, 15 million visitors so far this year? Someone forgot to tell the restaurant and bars, because all I hear is that it has been a quiet year! They may have had 15 million 'pass through' the airport transit lounges.

Chiangmai officials said that tourism was down something like 8% (cant recall exact figure) but it WAS down.

No doubt when Oct 2015 arrives Mr Suwat (if he is still in office) will say loud and clear, "we have had 1.5 Trillion visitors so far this year and are well on target to achieve the 2 Trillion I predicted three years ago"

The increase of tourists comes mainly from China, India and Russia. Tourists from China and India don't spend a lot of money here. Some of the Russian tourists are spending money, but most of them are also quite poor. But this will change in future. Generally the origin where tourists come from will change dramatically. Europe will lose importance.

[Headgame]

No doubt there is a change in the mix of tourists coming to TH but from a strictly ad hoc survey of traffic and people around Patong, there are significantly fewer visitors in mid October 2012 vs 2010 and 2011. Personally works for me but rough on all those who rely on the tourist dollars. I haven't heard a single business owner in Patong say it's anything other than quiet.

[GeorgeO]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

You're correct in saying it's 100,000 per tourist, but that's baht, not dollars; thus, it's about 3,250 dollars per tourist. But even that seems a bit steep for this budget getaway!

Edited October 16, 2012 by GeorgeO

[firestar]

The increase of tourists comes mainly from China, India and Russia. Tourists from China and India don't spend a lot of money here. Some of the Russian tourists are spending money, but most of them are also quite poor. But this will change in future. Generally the origin where tourists come from will change dramatically. Europe will lose importance.

Chinese visitors do spend quite a lot only you don't see it because almost everything is pre-booked and prepaid.

Edited October 16, 2012 by firestar

[noob7]

Indian and middle eastern visitors aren't really known for their barfly activities, so the bars could also be suffering through the switch in demographics.

That's true. These people going (on Phuket) to 'Christine', 'Katherine',...., instead.

More quiet, less hassle, less witnesses, no ploblems in the group they travel with.

[richusa]

The Thai Baht is to strong. Needs to get to 35-38 per USD. The last 5 years, I don't spend as much as I used to..and neither will alot of tourist...I have been traveling/working in Thailand..and that's the word !!

[noob7]

The Thai Baht is to strong. Needs to get to 35-38 per USD. The last 5 years, I don't spend as much as I used to..and neither will alot of tourist...I have been traveling/working in Thailand..and that's the word !!

Nope, it's not the strength of the Thai Baht!

It's the weakness of the US$.

Don't confuse that please!

It's the FED and the politics, to make ~ 20 trillion debts look 'reasonable'

[Thai at Heart]

The Thai Baht is to strong. Needs to get to 35-38 per USD. The last 5 years, I don't spend as much as I used to..and neither will alot of tourist...I have been traveling/working in Thailand..and that's the word !!

Nope, it's not the strength of the Thai Baht!

It's the weakness of the US$.

Don't confuse that please!

It's the FED and the politics, to make ~ 20 trillion debts look 'reasonable'

Indeed, and if the FED keeps going, and the Thai economy keeps managing 3 to 5% growth and relatively strong export growth, it will be back to 25 to the USD eventually. Of course, if they subsidise buying enough rice to export for 5 years, but can't sell it, that will cut the other way.

[ThaidDown]

Certainly the demographics are changing with less visitors from Europe/US/Australia and more from Asia, but maybe the quote

'Thailand will achieve its target 20 million tourist arrival by year end, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports.'

was released in error. This is the statement to be released in late 2013. He just cut and pasted the wrong one from the pre-prepared list.

[rheinwiese]

How many of these 'tourists' are visa runners? Any statistics about, how much the 15/30 day rule finds it way into this 20 Million number?

And how many day traders? (Malaysians, Cambodians, Laotians, Burmese)

[belg]

my guess, if you want 2 trillion in revenue for 20 million people, they have to spend an average of 100.000 baht per person

but i could be wrong off course

so a family of 4 would be spending here, flights not included, 400.000 baht or 10.000 euros or 13.000 dollars US

[sirchai]

Urgent issues to be dealt with to reach both objectives include illegal taxis and jet ski problems in the resort island of Phuket

What about the clone, who isn't alone? ==

[Nisa]

You can believe what you like and of course, the incoming tourists have more choices in hotels, bars and restaurants than they had 20 years ago.

But no matter if you have 10 hotels, 100 hotels or 1000 hotels...every tour-operator or groundhandling agent who is not lieing to you (or themselves) will tell you the same thing: decrease in numbers! Last year and the beginning of this year (thanks to the excellent handeling of the flood situation >attention: sarcasm!<) the numbers were on a low and >yes< they are picking up now. But it is not hard to be going up from a record low!

I believe the numbers were up 20% last year ... pretty much the opposite of coming off a record low.

As I said: believe what you like.

And if you actually believe any numbers, issued by official Thai- authorities, I guess this conversation (as many with you) will end right here!

I tend to believe what is based on fact and not negative views of folks who seem to want to spend their days promoting pessimistic views that go against all facts and figures and believe vast conspiricies are going on between border agents, TAT, other countries, hotel chains, construction companies and the airlines all to falsely claim tourist numbers continue to go up when in fact businesses are failing left and right ... and of course the reason for such a conspiracy is the farang understanding of what losing face means.

The reality is tourism was up last year significantly despite your claims to the contrary and tourism in Thailand continues to increase at a good pace and this trend has been going on for many years.There is just no rational way to dispute this.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[Nisa]

my guess, if you want 2 trillion in revenue for 20 million people, they have to spend an average of 100.000 baht per person

but i could be wrong off course

so a family of 4 would be spending here, flights not included, 400.000 baht or 10.000 euros or 13.000 dollars US

You shouldn't get too wrappped up into numbers in an article like this that doesn't provide details and the details is does you are ignoring or missing. First of all the 2 trillion is the goal for 2015. The current year is 2012 with an expectation of 20 Million Visitors. There is no mention of how many visitors are expected in 2015. There is also no mention if the 2015 revenue goal is for foreign tourists only or if this is all tourism that accounts for a good portion of total tourism. You also have completely decided to throw out airfare from the equation when all airlines pay fees and taxes and many people arrive on Thai carriers as well as take flights while in country. You also are not considering the average stay in Thailand. There was a thread a few months back that did give some break down in terms of average stay as well as average dollars spent that I believe may have also been broken down by what country the tourist came from.

[DocN]

You can believe what you like and of course, the incoming tourists have more choices in hotels, bars and restaurants than they had 20 years ago.

But no matter if you have 10 hotels, 100 hotels or 1000 hotels...every tour-operator or groundhandling agent who is not lieing to you (or themselves) will tell you the same thing: decrease in numbers! Last year and the beginning of this year (thanks to the excellent handeling of the flood situation >attention: sarcasm!<) the numbers were on a low and >yes< they are picking up now. But it is not hard to be going up from a record low!

I believe the numbers were up 20% last year ... pretty much the opposite of coming off a record low.

As I said: believe what you like.

And if you actually believe any numbers, issued by official Thai- authorities, I guess this conversation (as many with you) will end right here!

I tend to believe what is based on fact and not negative views of folks who seem to want to spend their days promoting pessimistic views that go against all facts and figures and believe vast conspiricies are going on between border agents, TAT, other countries, hotel chains, construction companies and the airlines all to falsely claim tourist numbers continue to go up when in fact businesses are failing left and right ... and of course the reason for such a conspiracy is the farang understanding of what losing face means.

I am working in Tourism since 20 years now, 6 of which in Thailand and a total 15 with Asian and (especially) Thai- destinations.

What are your experiences on the matter?

Believe me: I WISH those numbers where true, because it is my bread an butter!

I don't know who said it, but there is the saying that "I believe only statistics that I personally faked!"- this is true - not only, but in a lot of senses- for the tourist industrie. How do I know again? Oh, yeah: it is my JOB!

I deal with it on a daily basis.

How do you know, what "is fact"?

Pray tell, oh great master!

Are you standing on the gates of Suvarnabhumi, counting incoming tourists and can thus' tell me, there are huge numbers coming in?

You don't believe in FACTS- you believe in NUMBERS, someone else is telling you!

That is a huge difference!

By the way: I know, you like to push every critic into the "Thai- bashing" corner!

I wouldn't believe numbers of any Tourism Agency or Ministry in any country.

Why?

Because even the most accurate numbers these guys are dealing with, in the end come from Touroperators and Travel Agents and are for that matter almost 100% fictional!

Touristnumbers last year were stable and slightly increasing....and then the nam thuam came!

Numbers have gone down a bottomless-pit during and after that time and almost the whole high- season last year was a disaster.

Hotels in October were fully booked? With refugees from Bangkok, maybe- tourists stayed home.

And it was hard -VERY HARD- to get them back, since this is a very sensitive (and by no means sensible) area.

Tourism gets hit with political unrest, volcanic ashclouds, flues of all kind, SARS, bombs and floods.

Again: I know, because it is my job! Your facts are....again...from which source?

The floodmonths of last year almost erased all positiv numbers made before and the aftermath was horrific (tourism wise).

So how do think, those positive numbers of an increase come to pass - bearing in mind, that the middle of march until beginning of November is low season!?

(By the way: so you don't need to count: I used capital letters 6 times, not counting SARS, because it looks stupid written Sars...)

[Notstupid30]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

[timsims]

hi I landed he on august 4 and for the time no lines at passport control 20 million tourist no way. then I went to nana

and not many tourist there was like a ghost town

[noob7]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

yep, the Malaysia males pushing the statistics always. With their 'short' visits in the southern provinces.

That's not news

[rfukata]

pretty challenging figure of 20 million pax arrivals, not sure what last yr. arrival count was, lets say 15 mio., then it equates to

a 25% increase over 2011. Considering the flood inundation last year, possibly the tourists who cancelled last year are

making the trip - especially in Q4.

I would think 2013 will be ever more challenging for Thailand as Myanmar has opened up and many airlines are now re-instating direct

flights there. I read today's JapanTimes newspaper and it mentioned that ANA - all nippon airways has re-instated direct flights

into Myanmar after a 12 yr. hiatus.

[Notstupid30]

hi I landed he on august 4 and for the time no lines at passport control 20 million tourist no way. then I went to nana

and not many tourist there was like a ghost town

Yea i was at Royal Cliff Beach Resort Pattaya around 2 weeks ago and the place was empty ... There were also a few Indians there too but a load of bus's for Thais i also looked outside my friends condo and around the hotel was like a ghost town .. plus tourists declined is about 17.92% due to the floods but i would say more ..

Edited October 16, 2012 by Notstupid30

[Notstupid30]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

yep, the Malaysia males pushing the statistics always. With their 'short' visits in the southern provinces.

That's not news

I could not agree more with you on that ..

[Notstupid30]

The following chart shows the number of international passengers each month at Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Jan 2011: Arrive (1,634,911), Depart (1,613,869), Transit (126,194) => +6.94%

Feb 2011: Arrive (1,519,596), Depart (1,573,084), Transit (100,529) => +8.90

Mar 2011: Arrive (1,569,195), Depart (1,684,527), Transit (125,286) => +10.62%

Apr 2011: Arrive (1,496,381), Depart (1,520,462), Transit (129,556) => +22.78%

May 2011: Arrive (1,343,501), Depart (1,412,625), Transit (131,190) => +44.53%

Jun 2011: Arrive (1,367,796), Depart (1,304,184), Transit (137,354) => +34.15

Jul 2011: Arrive (1,591,377), Depart (1,534,409), Transit (152,231) => +19.82%

Aug 2011: Arrive (1,505,196), Depart (1,570,590), Transit (143,963) => +17.50%

Sep 2011: Arrive (1,392,959), Depart (1,413,025), Transit (150,666) => +17.00%

Oct 2011: Arrive (1,412,258), Depart (1,439,679), Transit (146,871) => +3.58%

Nov 2011: Arrive (1,134,099), Depart (1,056,330), Transit (119,785) => -22.51%

Dec 2011: Arrive (1,561,776), Depart (1,356,971), Transit (124,081) => -6.81%

Jan 2012: Arrive (1,669,678), Depart (1,659,490), Transit (128,927) =>+2.46%

Feb 2012: Arrive (1,597,636), Depart (1,647,357), Transit (109,180) => +5.04%

Mar 2012: Arrive (1,708,266), Depart (1,806,442), Transit (120,321) => +7.58%

Apr 2012: Arrive (1,674,283), Depart (1,717,023), Transit (103,141) => +11.06%

May 2012: Arrive (1,497,178), Depart (1,544,977), Transit (109,083) => +9.14%

Jun 2012: Arrive (1,536,342), Depart (1,468,194), Transit (114,733) => +11.00%

Jul 2012: Arrive (1,674,991), Depart (1,636,752), Transit (123,967) => +4.81%

Aug 2012: Arrive (1,678,314), Depart (1,726,363), Transit (111,478) => +9.21%

Sep 2012: Arrive (1,519,247), Depart (1,535,169), Transit (118,374) => +7.31%

[ebonykap]

From a Phuket perspective.

On the surface it does look like tourist numbers are down and it is almost certainly the case for traditional tourists: Brits, Germans, Scandinavians and Australians.

But where the real difference lies is in the low season numbers. Big hotels used to be practically empty from May until October. Now they have much higher occupancy rates due to the influx of Chinese, Koreans, Indians, Russians and people from the Middle East.

There are dozens of tour buses on the roads at the moment with no discernible difference between low and high season. Their expenditure is different. The groups above, especially the Asians, don't spend in bars, they don't eat in local tourist based restaurants but they eat in a group in large places that specifically cater for tour groups, they shop in the souvenir shops that the tour buses take them to, many of their tours are per-paid and arranged by the tour companies so they don't spend at the local tour shops.

The tourists are here, they are just different. And it's a trend that will continue. Not good news for small business owners but great for the large scale operations, many of which are owned by the so-called elite. Yes, as always in Thailand, the rich get richer.

[ebonykap]

From a Phuket perspective.

On the surface it does look like tourist numbers are down and it is almost certainly the case for traditional tourists: Brits, Germans, Scandinavians and Australians.

But where the real difference lies is in the low season numbers. Big hotels used to be practically empty from May until October. Now they have much higher occupancy rates due to the influx of Chinese, Koreans, Indians, Russians and people from the Middle East.

There are dozens of tour buses on the roads at the moment with no discernible difference between low and high season. Their expenditure is different. The groups above, especially the Asians, don't spend in bars, they don't eat in local tourist based restaurants but they eat in a group in large places that specifically cater for tour groups, they shop in the souvenir shops that the tour buses take them to, many of their tours are per-paid and arranged by the tour companies so they don't spend at the local tour shops.

The tourists are here, they are just different. And it's a trend that will continue. Not good news for small business owners but great for the large scale operations, many of which are owned by the so-called elite. Yes, as always in Thailand, the rich get richer.

Not only in Thailand!!

[kevvy]

if you believe any numbers by official Thai authorities then you believe in the rice pledging scheme and thanskin is innocent

[Notstupid30]

if you believe any numbers by official Thai authorities then you believe in the rice pledging scheme and thanskin is innocent

+ 1

[carib102]

I suggest the doubting Thomases head over to a hotel booking site and see what is available for high season. Very slim pickings at the affordable quality locations. They are almost all booked up. That wasn't the case at the height of the financial meltdown and the aftermath of the Bangkok madness. I keep telling one of my friends what a crap hole Patong is and his laid back Thai response, is mmkay, so whay are our hotels almost all booked for Nov-March. How can I argue with that? All I know is I don't want to be in patong come Christmas and am desperately looking to get away to Cha Am or Hua Hin. or anywhere there is a clean beach. I'm having a devil of a time.

You'll find clean and quiet beaches in Myanmar. Unfortunately more on the Bengal Sea side, but hopefully they will begin to develop Mergui slowly.