Brace Yourselves....20% Inflation!

[mccw]

Further more; any business conducting due dilligence on how inflation would effect them in Thailand, or any where else, would look at the variables specific to thier own situation. They certainly would not base any decisions solely on the Thai governments inflation report!

Only CMKelly would be so genius as to do that surely

Edited January 19, 2013 by mccw

[Naam]

Hmmm

you have to try hard to find a sucker (they are born every minute) who would believe in the 1968-2007 CPI graph you posted

[chiangmaikelly]

Hmmm

you have to try hard to find a sucker (they are born every minute) who would believe in the 1968-2007 CPI graph you posted

Instead of ad hominem (sucker) try saying what is wrong with the chart or post another one that backs up your point of gold not going up as much as the cpi. Or do you want to amend your statement, "that gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not." This Thai Visa ad hominem instead of fact is getting out of control someone should do something about it.

Edited January 20, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiangmaikelly]

CMKelly- Your confusing the Bank of Thailand set interest rate (wich has nothing to do with "settings" by credit ratings agencies) with the government reporting of inflation statistics.

But you just carry on making a fool of yourself; its quite comical.

I said nothing about interest rates. We are discussing inflation. Aren't you the guy that said the German economy would crash in 2012?

I don't remember saying that exactly but since you mention it the German economy contracted in Q4; the supposed powerhouse of Europe is running out of steam. Infact the west in general is due another crash this year or next.

The ratings agencies and banks will publish whatever suits them best. After the triple A rated toxic subprime fiasco only an idiot would believe anything they say.

In order to have a discussion about anything people must agree to certain constructs like language and arithmatic and phisical laws. The whole of the financial world uses credit rating agencies to determine value of things in a country. You refuse to accept the information published by credit rating agencies. So I nor anyone else except you can discuss anything having to do with economics with you. The discussion will always come back to a disagreement of the valitidy of numbers that everyone except you and a few anti Thai posters on Thai Visa accept as valid. Sorry.

Edited January 20, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[morrobay]

20% I wish I had those problems. In the early 2000's a bowl of tom yum kung ( spicy seafood soup; ) at Tankay seafood restaurant, walking st

Was (95 baht/bowl) x ($1 /42 baht) = $ 2.26/bowl

Now it is (180 baht/3/4 bowl) x ($1/30 baht) = $6/3/4 bowl = $8 /bowl

$8/$2.26 = 353%

[chiangmaikelly]

20% I wish I had those problems. In the early 2000's a bowl of tom yum kung ( spicy seafood soup; ) at Tankay seafood restaurant, walking st

Was (95 baht/bowl) x ($1 /42 baht) = $ 2.26/bowl

Now it is (180 baht/3/4 bowl) x ($1/30 baht) = $6/3/4 bowl = $8 /bowl

$8/$2.26 = 353%

If life was a bowl of soup you'd be in trouble. How long was the baht pegged at 25 to the dollar?

[Naam]

Hmmm

you have to try hard to find a sucker (they are born every minute) who would believe in the 1968-2007 CPI graph you posted

Instead of ad hominem (sucker) try saying what is wrong with the chart or post another one that backs up your point of gold not going up as much as the cpi. Or do you want to amend your statement, "that gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not." This Thai Visa ad hominem instead of fact is getting out of control someone should do something about it.

i am not amending anything and if you think my diction "try hard to find a sucker" applies to you then that is your personal choice, not mine. but let me repeat that your graph is irrelevant because it does not even mention to which country the CPI figures apply.

of course a bunch of countries exist where Gold beat inflation "hands tied at the back". but this thread is about Thailand and Thai inflation, id est Thai relevant figures should be applied and discussed.

[chiangmaikelly]

Hmmm

you have to try hard to find a sucker (they are born every minute) who would believe in the 1968-2007 CPI graph you posted

Instead of ad hominem (sucker) try saying what is wrong with the chart or post another one that backs up your point of gold not going up as much as the cpi. Or do you want to amend your statement, "that gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not." This Thai Visa ad hominem instead of fact is getting out of control someone should do something about it.

i am not amending anything and if you think my diction "try hard to find a sucker" applies to you then that is your personal choice, not mine. but let me repeat that your graph is irrelevant because it does not even mention to which country the CPI figures apply.

of course a bunch of countries exist where Gold beat inflation "hands tied at the back". but this thread is about Thailand and Thai inflation, id est Thai relevant figures should be applied and discussed.

Gold beat the Thai cpi by a mile in the past 40 years. The graphs are in US dollars and refer to the US. If you have a graph that shows the Thai CPI beating gold feel free to post it.

Edited January 20, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Naam]

Gold beat the Thai cpi by a mile in the past 40 years. The graphs are in US dollars and refer to the US. If you have a graph that shows the Thai CPI beating gold feel free to post it.

so the graphs are in USD and refer to the U.S.? then what sense does it make to post them in a thread dealing with Thai CPI?

typical... making a claim and when cornered then attack and demand from the counterpart to prove the contrary. but i'm not doing your homework and prove or disprove your claims.

[chiangmaikelly]

Gold beat the Thai cpi by a mile in the past 40 years. The graphs are in US dollars and refer to the US. If you have a graph that shows the Thai CPI beating gold feel free to post it.

so the graphs are in USD and refer to the U.S.? then what sense does it make to post them in a thread dealing with Thai CPI?

typical... making a claim and when cornered then attack and demand from the counterpart to prove the contrary. but i'm not doing your homework and prove or disprove your claims.

Another flame. You wrote, " those on fixed income without substantial savings do not live in big mansions which they can trade for a smaller home and a vegetable garden. they are also not able to save enought to buy some land or rental properties. and that gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not."

I direct your attention to the above post. No where does it mention Thailand. Do you think the price of gold is different in Thailand than the US?

You said for the past 35 years gold did not beat inflation. OK so prove it. Where. I am calling your bluff.

You said, " gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not." Where did inflation beat gold for the past 35 years?

Note to other posters, Naam wrote, " gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not." I have told him he was making that up. He will not answer my question. He will only flame me or try to divert the direct answer.

The question is one last time, "Where did inflation beat gold for the last 35 years?"

PS Naam also wrote, " this thread is about Thailand and Thai inflation, id est Thai relevant figures should be applied and discussed."

Edited January 20, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Naam]

please take a number and queue up till i'm ready to bother with your irrelevant demands.

p.s. please don't hold your breath!

[chiangmaikelly]

please take a number and queue up till i'm ready to bother with your irrelevant demands.

p.s. please don't hold your breath!

Like I said and I quote from the post Naam will not quote, " "Note to other posters, Naam wrote, " gold beats future inflation is an assumption without any evidence. for the last 35 years it did not." I have told him he was making that up. He will not answer my question. He will only flame me or try to divert the direct answer."

The question is one last time, "Where did inflation beat gold for the last 35 years?"

PS Naam also wrote, " this thread is about Thailand and Thai inflation, id est Thai relevant figures should be applied and discussed."

Edited January 20, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[morrobay]

20% I wish I had those problems. In the early 2000's a bowl of tom yum kung ( spicy seafood soup; ) at Tankay seafood restaurant, walking stWas (95 baht/bowl) x ($1 /42 baht) = $ 2.26/bowlNow it is (180 baht/3/4 bowl) x ($1/30 baht) = $6/3/4 bowl = $8 /bowl$8/$2.26 = 353%

And from this example the inflation rate is 13% / year. Found from the compound interest formula : $ = principle ( 1 + % ) ^ n . Using this relation: x = y^z , log x = z ( log y) so with $8 = $ 2.26 ( 1 + % ) ^ 10 (years) , then, log 3.53 =10 log (1+%) log 3.53 = .5477 then .05477 = log (1+%) , then 10^.05477 = (1+%) = 1.134 and 1.134^10 (years) = 3.52 , $8 = $2.26 ( 3.52 ) Edited January 20, 2013 by morrobay

[mccw]

CMKelly- Your confusing the Bank of Thailand set interest rate (wich has nothing to do with "settings" by credit ratings agencies) with the government reporting of inflation statistics.

But you just carry on making a fool of yourself; its quite comical.

I said nothing about interest rates. We are discussing inflation. Aren't you the guy that said the German economy would crash in 2012?

I don't remember saying that exactly but since you mention it the German economy contracted in Q4; the supposed powerhouse of Europe is running out of steam. Infact the west in general is due another crash this year or next.

The ratings agencies and banks will publish whatever suits them best. After the triple A rated toxic subprime fiasco only an idiot would believe anything they say.

In order to have a discussion about anything people must agree to certain constructs like language and arithmatic and phisical laws. The whole of the financial world uses credit rating agencies to determine value of things in a country. You refuse to accept the information published by credit rating agencies. So I nor anyone else except you can discuss anything having to do with economics with you. The discussion will always come back to a disagreement of the valitidy of numbers that everyone except you and a few anti Thai posters on Thai Visa accept as valid. Sorry.

It's not "anti Thai" to discuss the validity of inflation statistics. The inflation that matters is the inflation that effects people in their daily lives. That is why people are reporting the actual noticed inflation of every day items.

[chiangmaikelly]

I said nothing about interest rates. We are discussing inflation. Aren't you the guy that said the German economy would crash in 2012?

I don't remember saying that exactly but since you mention it the German economy contracted in Q4; the supposed powerhouse of Europe is running out of steam. Infact the west in general is due another crash this year or next.

The ratings agencies and banks will publish whatever suits them best. After the triple A rated toxic subprime fiasco only an idiot would believe anything they say.

In order to have a discussion about anything people must agree to certain constructs like language and arithmatic and phisical laws. The whole of the financial world uses credit rating agencies to determine value of things in a country. You refuse to accept the information published by credit rating agencies. So I nor anyone else except you can discuss anything having to do with economics with you. The discussion will always come back to a disagreement of the valitidy of numbers that everyone except you and a few anti Thai posters on Thai Visa accept as valid. Sorry.

It's not "anti Thai" to discuss the validity of inflation statistics. The inflation that matters is the inflation that effects people in their daily lives. That is why people are reporting the actual noticed inflation of every day items.

It is just silly to think everyone in Thailand has a personal rate of inflation because that's what you are saying. The inflation rate in Thailand and any other country is determined by financial institutions and not you and Somchai. There is only one rate of inflation in Thailand. It is not your choice of items. Sorry.

[Naam]

inflation is something very personal. it is just silly to think that personal inflation rates

do not exist. they do exist not only in Thailand but anywhere on this planet.

-a vegetarian couldn't care less if the price of chicken triples,

-a muslim is not interested in price hikes of pork,

-a Thai wage earning labourer making 8,000 Baht a month is not affected if BMW increases prices,

-our house maids are not buying laptops at any price,

-a Farang without aircon units in his home does not care which product is energy efficient,

-homeless people are not interested in furniture prices,

-i am not affected when bar fines in Walking Street are increased or Chang, Leo, Singha doubles.

the list is endless!

[Robby nz]

I see CMK you are still talking up S&P and the others like them, you didnt work for them did you?

Perhaps one day when your checks stop and your 400kb is almost gone you will get out and look around then and come to realise there is a huge difference between economic theory and reality.

Me I take reality any day.

I see you have gone all round the world except in Thailand, get off your chair and down to the markets and see what ordinary Thais have to do to make a living, thats the markets not the bars.

When you get there tell those who find it difficult to scrape together enough for food, clothes and shelter about economic theory and while you are at it you could advise the 20 million Thais who cant pay their debts how to get out of that debt (other thread).

What matters to them, and me incidentaly, is what they have to pay for their food, clothing, gas and other things you take for granted.

With the price increases for these things that have already happened and those that are likely to happen in the near future 20% inflation is a distinct possibility.

[mccw]

It is just silly to think everyone in Thailand has a personal rate of inflation because that's what you are saying. The inflation rate in Thailand and any other country is determined by financial institutions and not you and Somchai. There is only one rate of inflation in Thailand. It is not your choice of items. Sorry.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Naam did a good job explaining it but I'll add a few more examples:

- a manufacturing biz such as cars or textiles doesn't care about the price of pork or eggs; they care about wage and energy inflation.

- an investment bank spectlating on the value of the bht vs the dollar doesn't give a dam_n about any of it.

- a domestic bank lending to low income house holds might take a look at the essentials inflation effecting the ability of thier targets to repay while a high net worth mortgage division of the same bank would look more at the land price and construction costs inflation.

The government reported 3.8% inflation is completely meaningless for literally everyone in business and personal life; except that it, as the stated basis and justification for gov policy and CB bank base interest rate setting, can indicate what future gov / CB policy might be.

Edited January 20, 2013 by mccw

[mancub]

Obviously ,there has to be a common basket of selected services/goods in order to present a comparative /general value of an annual rate of inflation .

Obviously also, as with any national budget , individuals will be affected by different aspects of it and will consequently be better or worse off ,in real terms.

Strong economic growth ,

Low inflation,

Wage increases.......and full employment ???? Most economic models would suggest that something would have to give .

[mccw]

Obviously ,there has to be a common basket of selected services/goods in order to present a comparative /general value of an annual rate of inflation .

Obviously also, as with any national budget , individuals will be affected by different aspects of it and will consequently be better or worse off ,in real terms.

Strong economic growth ,

Low inflation,

Wage increases.......and full employment ???? Most economic models would suggest that something would have to give .

The point is that by historic methods inflation report would say 10-15% right now. It's only the newer including of airline tickets and consumer electronics and such that's giving low inflation statistics. So the something that "has got to give" and is giving right now is inflation.

Edited January 20, 2013 by mccw

[chiangmaikelly]

inflation is something very personal. it is just silly to think that personal inflation rates

do not exist. they do exist not only in Thailand but anywhere on this planet.

-a vegetarian couldn't care less if the price of chicken triples,

-a muslim is not interested in price hikes of pork,

-a Thai wage earning labourer making 8,000 Baht a month is not affected if BMW increases prices,

-our house maids are not buying laptops at any price,

-a Farang without aircon units in his home does not care which product is energy efficient,

-homeless people are not interested in furniture prices,

-i am not affected when bar fines in Walking Street are increased or Chang, Leo, Singha doubles.

the list is endless!

You know it and I know it. We were discussing the inflation rate used by credit reporting agencies. We were talking about the CPI consumer price index. And the rise of these as opposed to the price of gold not the price of ladies on Walking street.

[chiangmaikelly]

Obviously ,there has to be a common basket of selected services/goods in order to present a comparative /general value of an annual rate of inflation .

Obviously also, as with any national budget , individuals will be affected by different aspects of it and will consequently be better or worse off ,in real terms.

Strong economic growth ,

Low inflation,

Wage increases.......and full employment ???? Most economic models would suggest that something would have to give .

The point is that by historic methods inflation report would say 10-15% right now. It's only the newer including of airline tickets and consumer electronics and such that's giving low inflation statistics. So the something that "has got to give" and is giving right now is inflation.

Completely off topic. We are talking about the inflation rate of Thailand not how the rate is computed. If you want to start a new topic on how the inflation rate is computed go right ahead but this is not the thread.

[TommoPhysicist]

Personally, I thought the reported 3.8% was a little high.

More like 2% for me.

[chiangmaikelly]

It is just silly to think everyone in Thailand has a personal rate of inflation because that's what you are saying. The inflation rate in Thailand and any other country is determined by financial institutions and not you and Somchai. There is only one rate of inflation in Thailand. It is not your choice of items. Sorry.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Naam did a good job explaining it but I'll add a few more examples:

- a manufacturing biz such as cars or textiles doesn't care about the price of pork or eggs; they care about wage and energy inflation.

- an investment bank spectlating on the value of the bht vs the dollar doesn't give a dam_n about any of it.

- a domestic bank lending to low income house holds might take a look at the essentials inflation effecting the ability of thier targets to repay while a high net worth mortgage division of the same bank would look more at the land price and construction costs inflation.

The government reported 3.8% inflation is completely meaningless for literally everyone in business and personal life; except that it, as the stated basis and justification for gov policy and CB bank base interest rate setting, can indicate what future gov / CB policy might be.

Absolute nonsense. The bank rates are based on fixed indexes. Look up the terms of your last ARM adjustable rate mortgage. It is not what makes sense to you or what you think is right or wrong. It is what the credit reporting agencies think. That is S&P, Moody's and Fitch. You have no idea what you are talking about.

[mccw]

It is just silly to think everyone in Thailand has a personal rate of inflation because that's what you are saying. The inflation rate in Thailand and any other country is determined by financial institutions and not you and Somchai. There is only one rate of inflation in Thailand. It is not your choice of items. Sorry.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Naam did a good job explaining it but I'll add a few more examples:

- a manufacturing biz such as cars or textiles doesn't care about the price of pork or eggs; they care about wage and energy inflation.

- an investment bank spectlating on the value of the bht vs the dollar doesn't give a dam_n about any of it.

- a domestic bank lending to low income house holds might take a look at the essentials inflation effecting the ability of thier targets to repay while a high net worth mortgage division of the same bank would look more at the land price and construction costs inflation.

The government reported 3.8% inflation is completely meaningless for literally everyone in business and personal life; except that it, as the stated basis and justification for gov policy and CB bank base interest rate setting, can indicate what future gov / CB policy might be.

Absolute nonsense. The bank rates are based on fixed indexes. Look up the terms of your last ARM adjustable rate mortgage. It is not what makes sense to you or what you think is right or wrong. It is what the credit reporting agencies think. That is S&P, Moody's and Fitch. You have no idea what you are talking about.

My home mortgage is fixed at 3.49% over the Bank of England base rate. That has nothing at all to do with any indexes at S&P or anywhere else, it has nothing to do with the reported inflation rate either! The only use for the government reported inflation rate is to guess if the BoE might increase its base rate. Now if your talking about inflation linked benefits or pensions that's another matter- indeed there is a link there and is another reason the governments like to measure inflation in such a way so as to give low % results ie to minimise the increases / liabilities they must pay.

[mccw]

Obviously ,there has to be a common basket of selected services/goods in order to present a comparative /general value of an annual rate of inflation .

Obviously also, as with any national budget , individuals will be affected by different aspects of it and will consequently be better or worse off ,in real terms.

Strong economic growth ,

Low inflation,

Wage increases.......and full employment ???? Most economic models would suggest that something would have to give .

The point is that by historic methods inflation report would say 10-15% right now. It's only the newer including of airline tickets and consumer electronics and such that's giving low inflation statistics. So the something that "has got to give" and is giving right now is inflation.

Completely off topic. We are talking about the inflation rate of Thailand not how the rate is computed. If you want to start a new topic on how the inflation rate is computed go right ahead but this is not the thread.

Not irrelevant. Read the OP again.

It's only you trying to deny other posters relevant information as irrelevant; because only you want to accept the governments reported statistic which are meaningless for most and do not equate to reality.

[mccw]

CMKelly- ""My loan on my house is based on data supplied by government not by posters on this thread"" Blatantly that loan is not based on any "data provided by government"; check the terms of the loan; almost certainly its a % over the base rate set by the Central Bank. For sure it has no direct link to inflation reported by S&P, the Government or anyone else!

All the facts have been laid out for you but your still all mixed up, stuck in your wrong thinking; no point trying to educate you further, we're just going round in circles. Truly the proverbial lotus stuck in the mud under water.

Edited January 20, 2013 by mccw

[mccw]

It's all besides the point though. That is that people are noticing real world inflation of 10-20 or more % in things that directly affect them. The government statistics do not match people's experience. Even your points that yes these statistics can effect people's pensions and such only further enforce the point that pensions and wages are not keeping up with the inflation witnessed in essential goods. You saying "but but the rating agency or gov says there is only 3% inflation and that is all that matters" is nonsense.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. Maybe some people should go back and read the OP and get re-acquainted with what this topic is about.

[Naam]

It is just silly to think everyone in Thailand has a personal rate of inflation because that's what you are saying. The inflation rate in Thailand and any other country is determined by financial institutions and not you and Somchai. There is only one rate of inflation in Thailand. It is not your choice of items. Sorry.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Naam did a good job explaining it but I'll add a few more examples:

- a manufacturing biz such as cars or textiles doesn't care about the price of pork or eggs; they care about wage and energy inflation.

- an investment bank spectlating on the value of the bht vs the dollar doesn't give a dam_n about any of it.

- a domestic bank lending to low income house holds might take a look at the essentials inflation effecting the ability of thier targets to repay while a high net worth mortgage division of the same bank would look more at the land price and construction costs inflation.

The government reported 3.8% inflation is completely meaningless for literally everyone in business and personal life; except that it, as the stated basis and justification for gov policy and CB bank base interest rate setting, can indicate what future gov / CB policy might be.

Absolute nonsense. The bank rates are based on fixed indexes. Look up the terms of your last ARM adjustable rate mortgage. It is not what makes sense to you or what you think is right or wrong. It is what the credit reporting agencies think. That is S&P, Moody's and Fitch. You have no idea what you are talking about.

You have no idea what you are talking about

and so do you!