GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

What do you think Hoirat, do you agree? 52? If so why, if not why!

Now when you claim your money is 5/50 Thai bhat/GPB, I'm assuming there isn't very much of that money.

I'm not talking about a normal UK blokes 20kgbp life savings, 10k here, 10k there, that's pocket money.

If you had a 1MGBP pension that could not be split, but invested in anything you like in either Thailand or the UK.

But never transferred out of the country again in your lifetime, where would you put it?

I would postulate that only a madman would put that money in Thailand.

I would also suggest that you CM, not being a madman, would put it in the UK like everyone else would do.

Thailand is an unstable banana republic, run by crooks, foreigners money isn't safe here.

We could all be booted out tomorrow and/or our Thai assets and bank accounts seized.

Laws have been passed through out the west, UK included, legalising the confiscation of private assets, a la Cyprus.

I suggest you use google and do some research. Read Churchill's recent post/ link over at the financial crises thread.

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[FiftyTwo]

You were invited to answer the question posed in post 1678, you didn't or weren't able to do so.

I have zero interest in hearing anything from you beyond that, we have the, "measure of the man", from your previous posts.

I'll take that as me being right, and you being a bad loser.

1. You have no significant amounts of money.

2. If you did have, you wouldn't keep it in Thailand.

[chiang mai]

I'll take that as me being right, and you being a bad loser.

1. You have no significant amounts of money.

2. If you did have, you wouldn't keep it in Thailand.

You can take it for what ever you want to, I have no interest in your views, this thread is about GBP/THB exchange rates and the related economics, not about what you think of the people who post here.

[FiftyTwo]

You can take it for what ever you want to, I have no interest in your views, this thread is about GBP/THB exchange rates and the related economics, not about what you think of the people who post here.

Nobody wants to listen to a pauper spout his opinions on exchange rates and related economics.

If his opinions were worth anything, then he wouldn't be a pauper.

When Naam gives his opinion, we all listen, he has money, he knows how to make it.

If a Mr. Soros were to post in this thread, we would listen to him too.

What you think of the person, gives weight to their opinion.

[Naam]

there... there... Gentlemen! let's agree that some of us disagree. but in a civilised manner suitable for Members of the British Empire and a lonely Hun Jerry.

[chiang mai]

Nobody wants to listen to a pauper spout his opinions on exchange rates and related economics.

If his opinions were worth anything, then he wouldn't be a pauper.

When Naam gives his opinion, we all listen, he has money, he knows how to make it.

If a Mr. Soros were to post in this thread, we would listen to him too.

What you think of the person, gives weight to their opinion.

If you are not interested in a particular posters view on economics, why do you need to keep coming back to challenge and bait that poster, week after week, month after month, without adding anything to the subject matter, are there personal issues involved here that we can all see that you aren't confronting, I can see no other reason for your behavior?

Edited November 8, 2013 by chiang mai

[Sheryl]

Flamefest is officially over. cease and desist, or face a long posting holiday.

Back on topic, please....

[chiang mai]

Cool.

So here's a contribution that talks about the current status of the UK trade deficit:

"The goods trade deficit grew to £9.82bn in September from £9.56bn in August, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. This was the widest gap since October 2012 and against economist expectations for a gap of £9.2bn".

"September's fall was mainly driven by a decline in exports of ships, aircrafts and materials, which fell by 24pc on a month-on-month basis. Goods exports to the European Union decreased by £300m to £12.6bn, while exports outside the EU rose by £100m to £12.5bn"

Remember the EU, they're the people that just reduced their interest rate!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10435481/Britains-trade-deficit-in-goods-at-widest-level-in-almost-a-year.html

.

[mccw]

Eurozone you mean of course to be pedantic , although context says it all.

One could postulate that the cut at the ECB makes it less likely that BoE would act to raise rates/ £ value and so hurt exports to the countries biggest trading partner. Politically UK gov would likely want some pound weakening measures rather than strengthening.

I read to today in the unquotable paper that the fiancé ministry of Thailand is now proposing to borrow 20% of the 2trillion bht loan by the method of issuing USD denominated bonds. Also that the total debt after the 2 trillion bht loan would still be less than 50% of GDP. This is a 7year program of investment.

Compare 50% debt to GDP of Thailand (even after 7years from now!) to the UK which has ballooned from 50-90% in les time and with no end in sight by a reasoned analysis, indeed the demographics means the main expenses of NHS, Welfare, means rather than the over optimistic government projections the situation looks ...... Erm, well , f$$ked

The way I see it, there must be money printed by government accounting trickster to pay for all the promises sooner or later

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[mccw]

Just example of what I was talking about earlier on the rotten state of UK compensation culture:

"""Lawyers for Homes for Haringey told the judge that Fari, who is 60 on Saturday, lied about how badly she was hurt when she tripped on uneven paving and twisted her right knee in May 2008.

The organisation, which manages council housing in the north London borough, admitted liability and offered her £7,500.

However, she instead chose to pursue a massive claim which was only struck out by a judge in October 2012 after covert video evidence revealed a huge difference between how she presented at medical examinations and when she was out and about near her home in Hornsey."""

She turned down the £7500 and went after £750,000 instead! Only due to her own stupidity that she got court. That the case was even entertained in the first place just sums up the waste in the dysfunctional system of bullshit laws that have grown up right across the board in every nook and cranny of the economy..

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[mommysboy]

Whilst I basically agree with CM's verdict on the alleged UK recovery, which might be dubbed 'robbing Peter to pay Paul', I think it is important to note that pretty much all developed economies are either in the same or a worse boat. Thus the pound may not be as over valued as one might argue. Sure, if the USA didn't have such profound problems a valuation of 1.40 GDP to the dollar might be reasonable, perhaps even 1.30.

Like wise i feel you are painting too rosy a picture of Thailand's fiscal strength, or rather it's importance: there are bigger clouds already arriving in the form of a dramatic drop in GDP, and the usual band of renegades inciting a coup. The former is particularly worrying for Thailand, and the only short term answer a devaluation of the baht since I feel any likely stimulation of the economy by way of infrastucture spending is now very unlikely to take place.

Things are about right, should that be 'about wrong'?

Heck of a lot of things wrong in the global economy at present and unlikely to be resolved quickly.

[mccw]

One "western" country/ currency I'm looking at that doesn't have such debt problems as UK, USA, Eurozone exposure etc is Norway (huge sovereign wealth fund), another is Australia (20% debt to GDP, and a deficit which just shrank from 4 to 2% of GDP, with a surplus predicted next year)

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[chiang mai]

Whilst I basically agree with CM's verdict on the alleged UK recovery, which might be dubbed 'robbing Peter to pay Paul', I think it is important to note that pretty much all developed economies are either in the same or a worse boat. Thus the pound may not be as over valued as one might argue. Sure, if the USA didn't have such profound problems a valuation of 1.40 GDP to the dollar might be reasonable, perhaps even 1.30.

Like wise i feel you are painting too rosy a picture of Thailand's fiscal strength, or rather it's importance: there are bigger clouds already arriving in the form of a dramatic drop in GDP, and the usual band of renegades inciting a coup. The former is particularly worrying for Thailand, and the only short term answer a devaluation of the baht since I feel any likely stimulation of the economy by way of infrastucture spending is now very unlikely to take place.

Things are about right, should that be 'about wrong'?

Heck of a lot of things wrong in the global economy at present and unlikely to be resolved quickly.

I agree MMB that many countries are in a similar boat as the UK, what is troubling about the UK however is that we have pretty much destroyed our manufacturing capability over the years hence any recovery must come from a highly vulnerable services sector, a sector that is under threat from Europe. In the case of countries that are in a similar position, most do have a manufacturing capability that they simply have to redirect and grow further. What we seem to be doing back in the UK at present is increasing GDP by squeezing the consumer, further and further and there is a limit to what is possible.

Interesting though what you say about Thailand, if you look closely you'll note that I actually haven't made any comments about Thailand's economy, that's because there's no reliable data on which to form an opinion other than an ever reducing GDP. But to be honest, when discussing the economic factors that impact GDP/THB one doesn't even need to look at hardly anything related to Thailand at all, instead the focus is on the strength of USD hence the debate is really about GBP/USD. In that context, the fact that there are political clouds on the Thai horizon don't mean very much at all - again, I go back to 2010 when those clouds had no impact whatsoever. The loss of GDP resulting from disruption is however troubling, at least they seem to acknowledge that this time around.

[kimamey]

there... there... Gentlemen! let's agree that some of us disagree. but in a civilised manner suitable for Members of the British Empire and a lonely Hun Jerry.

British Empire? I think you need to get out more.

[kimamey]

Perhaps enough of the sidetracking and back onto the economies and currencies of the UK and Thailand?

I see from this mornings UK press that most local councils are preparing to increase Council Tax by around 5%, increases in the tax has mostly been surpressed for several years although that looks about to change. An increase in Council Tax plus significant increases in the cost of utilities, 10% in many cases, without any real increase in income, will put a huge strain on already stretched household budgets, ditto the likelihood that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. All Sterling positive of course because money is being spent in the economy and GDP will rise. But from a social economic viewpoint it's mostly people negative hence I wonder if the population will actually allow the governement to continue with the current game plan, is there not a risk that recovery will lead to a change in governement, I think so.

I assume my explanation regarding the UK and the Eurozone made things clear.

I haven't seen anything about council tax rises but if it's correct then you're right it could make a lot of difference to spending power when combined with other increases. I would assume it would increase the amount of council tax benefit paid as well although whether this would be significant I don't know.

I thought I saw something about the ECB dropping it's interest rates which seems to go against the likelihood of rates in the UK going down although they are separate. Maybe the UK rates won't go up for the same reason to keep the growth going.

Funny, when I posted what I did about the Eurozone I was trying to be polite towards the poster who was clearly confused about the difference between the currency and zone, it was actually me who was being sarcastic in the first instance! But yes, hopefull everyone is all clear now.

Here's one of several links in the UK press today on the subject of council tax increases:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2489977/Council-tax-price-rise-planned-quarters-town-halls.html

The cut in rates in the Eurozone have caused GBP to increase in value, money being moved in order to take advantage of slightly higher rates plus the likelihood is that the UK will increase their interest rates before Europe. But Europe remains a vital trading partner so lowered rates in Europe means less confidence in the European economy and means the UK will suffer some reduction in exports to that zone.

Sorry having read your post again I think I may have misinterpreted it but as you say let's hope the difference is understood now.

Thanks for the link. I've not heard about this but it will certainly hurt a lot of people. Beyond that I'm not sure what difference it will make.

[chiang mai]

Perhaps enough of the sidetracking and back onto the economies and currencies of the UK and Thailand?

I see from this mornings UK press that most local councils are preparing to increase Council Tax by around 5%, increases in the tax has mostly been surpressed for several years although that looks about to change. An increase in Council Tax plus significant increases in the cost of utilities, 10% in many cases, without any real increase in income, will put a huge strain on already stretched household budgets, ditto the likelihood that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. All Sterling positive of course because money is being spent in the economy and GDP will rise. But from a social economic viewpoint it's mostly people negative hence I wonder if the population will actually allow the governement to continue with the current game plan, is there not a risk that recovery will lead to a change in governement, I think so.

I assume my explanation regarding the UK and the Eurozone made things clear.

I haven't seen anything about council tax rises but if it's correct then you're right it could make a lot of difference to spending power when combined with other increases. I would assume it would increase the amount of council tax benefit paid as well although whether this would be significant I don't know.

I thought I saw something about the ECB dropping it's interest rates which seems to go against the likelihood of rates in the UK going down although they are separate. Maybe the UK rates won't go up for the same reason to keep the growth going.

Funny, when I posted what I did about the Eurozone I was trying to be polite towards the poster who was clearly confused about the difference between the currency and zone, it was actually me who was being sarcastic in the first instance! But yes, hopefull everyone is all clear now.

Here's one of several links in the UK press today on the subject of council tax increases:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2489977/Council-tax-price-rise-planned-quarters-town-halls.html

The cut in rates in the Eurozone have caused GBP to increase in value, money being moved in order to take advantage of slightly higher rates plus the likelihood is that the UK will increase their interest rates before Europe. But Europe remains a vital trading partner so lowered rates in Europe means less confidence in the European economy and means the UK will suffer some reduction in exports to that zone.

Sorry having read your post again I think I may have misinterpreted it but as you say let's hope the difference is understood now.

Thanks for the link. I've not heard about this but it will certainly hurt a lot of people. Beyond that I'm not sure what difference it will make.

GDP increases are going to come from the consumer spending more money, particularly on property, the bigger their cost of living costs the the less likely they are to move house and the less likely that GDP will increase in a sustained manner. Remember, the housing boom that's showing signs of life in some areas currently needs to be sustained otherwise the following quarter, GDP falls back.

Just as an aside, on the subject of the housing market: a person would have to have lived like a hermit to not notice the extent of press rampings of UK house prices over the past four months, it's been a wonderfully intense campaign that continues today. There's no doubt that prices are increasing in some areas although this is not uniform or across the board by any means, one of my gauges of this is a folder of some twenty properties that I personally might buy were I looking, whose price and availability I check weekly. In three months I've only seen one get sold although I've seen some prices decrease but most have been changed to now read, "offers in excess of". Those properties are all in Devon and Somerset. Again, no housing boom, no increase in GDP worth mentioning is my take.

[Naam]

mccw

I read to today in the unquotable paper that the fiancé ministry of Thailand is now proposing to borrow 20% of the 2trillion bht loan by the method of issuing USD denominated bonds.

i wonder who's the fiancée of the fiancé Ministry of Thailand

joke aside... i don't think there is a market for 16 billion USD denominated bonds, debtor Thailand.

[Naam]

there... there... Gentlemen! let's agree that some of us disagree. but in a civilised manner suitable for Members of the British Empire and a lonely Hun Jerry.

British Empire? I think you need to get out more.

honi soit qui mal y pense!

[i claudius]

You can take it for what ever you want to, I have no interest in your views, this thread is about GBP/THB exchange rates and the related economics, not about what you think of the people who post here.

Nobody wants to listen to a pauper spout his opinions on exchange rates and related economics.

If his opinions were worth anything, then he wouldn't be a pauper.

When Naam gives his opinion, we all listen, he has money, he knows how to make it.

If a Mr. Soros were to post in this thread, we would listen to him too.

What you think of the person, gives weight to their opinion.

I think your in love

[i claudius]

there... there... Gentlemen! let's agree that some of us disagree. but in a civilised manner suitable for Members of the British Empire and a lonely Hun Jerry.

British Empire? I think you need to get out more.

honi soit qui mal y pense!

"Shamed be he who thinks evil of it"

see even some of us Brits aint fick.

[mommysboy]

CM writes "Interesting though what you say about Thailand, if you look closely you'll note that I actually haven't made any comments about Thailand's economy".

Ah! apologies. I've been busy of late beating out a few financial business related bush fires and haven't followed the boards in any great detail. I guess it is just a general impression I formed rightly or wrongly.

Yes the demise of the GB as an industrial force is rather sad. And no recovery even after 3 years of significant devaluation, inward investment, and falling wage costs. Perhaps the custom just isn't there due to falling world demand.

[Naam]

One "western" country/ currency I'm looking at that doesn't have such debt problems as UK, USA, Eurozone exposure etc is Norway (huge sovereign wealth fund), another is Australia (20% debt to GDP, and a deficit which just shrank from 4 to 2% of GDP, with a surplus predicted next year)

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that does not prevent that NOK fluctuates considerably not only vs. major currencies but also vs. "sideline" currencies such as Thai Baht.

and the notorious low Australian debt/GDP ratio had and has no influence on the AUD's huge value fluctuations vs. most major and minor currencies.

[mccw]

All currencies fluctuate ; yes.

Negatives with the two I mentioned also are the taxes. Immovable property/ rents, non residents are taxed at 29-45%.

Where as USA, Canada, I think non resident landlords rental income can count under the tax brackets like a normal residents income (UK is like this also), so big big savings. Say 50k income in each mentioned country, USA will leave the most money in your pocket. Canada, Australia, Norway in that order of net after tax.

So one 6% yielding property is not equal to another. This is why I'm taking my time to research all the angles.

Capital gains is another consideration I could bore you with the details of. Inheritance/ estate taxes also.

Mr Naam; can you enlighten me as to stocks and bonds; regarding income etc, can an offshore entity hold the investments of various counties and transfer those profits to your multiple currency accounts at that off shore location, with out being subjected to the local taxes?

Even so; The problem I have with it even if possible is in essence I don't trust any company or bank to hold my money in significant amounts.

So back to the point; I consider debt ratios not just as a currency devaluation gage/ likely hood of monetisation barometer, but its more just as one of the points taken under mental ponderings in the wider guesstimating processes as to the risk/ rewards and long term stability and prospects through multi cycle time scales; due to the illiquid nature of the kind of investments I'm in to.

I think diversifying the income to a few places should mean a steady balance rather than subject to the swings and whims of the market. Unfortunately I don't have the biggest cash to diversify as much as I'd like. But the tax savings for me to get mostly out of the UK and spread it to some another countries where I can start as a lower rate payer should leave me 20-30% better off over all/ boost my income buy as much.

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[Naam]

Where as USA, Canada, I think non resident landlords rental income can count under the tax brackets like a normal residents income

instead of "thinking", check the facts. a non resident in the U.S. can't claim any personal deductions on domestic income derived. don't know about Canada though.

[Naam]

Mr Naam; can you enlighten me as to stocks and bonds; regarding income etc, can an offshore entity hold the investments of various counties and transfer those profits to your multiple currency accounts at that off shore location, with out being subjected to the local taxes?

Even so; The problem I have with it even if possible is in essence I don't trust any company or bank to hold my money in significant amounts.

stocks are a problem Sir Mccw. in most countries dividends are subject to an ugly withholding tax, e.g.Switzerland 35%, Germany 25%. dividends of U.S. companies are taxed 30% if the non-resident lives in a country which has not ratified a double tax agreement with the U.S. or holds the stocks in an offshore corporation. the Thai low 10% flat tax on dividends is an exeption.

an offshore entity is not required, respectively it doesn't make any difference whether a natural person or a juristic entity holds bonds. only very few cases exist where witholding tax is applied to bond coupon payments. it also goes without saying that any capital gains on bonds are tax free.

for the record: if i had not entrusted my money (since 3½ decades) to sovereign or corporate debtors i'd be (in comparison) a pauper and might be a member of the "ATM 150 Baht racist fee" brigade or the brigade that bitches that the street vendors' noodle soup has been increased from 20 to 25 Baht and it's time to move to our home countries because Thailand has become too expensive

[mccw]

Where as USA, Canada, I think non resident landlords rental income can count under the tax brackets like a normal residents income

instead of "thinking", check the facts. a non resident in the U.S. can't claim any personal deductions on domestic income derived. don't know about Canada though.

I am not a tax expert; but I have actively been researching what information I can before consulting the experts if when I get closer to taking a plunge. /I'm too stingy to pay up front:) so this is the time I really value the forum and feel it was actually worth the time to post, so thank you for picking up my mistakes where ever they might be.

See here please-

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/North-America/United-States/Taxes-and-Costs

I read that as one begins the personal income tax brackets, ie at 10% on the net after biz expenses of maintance, agents fees, etc.

I don't know what "personal deductions" means in the tax context. Are you saying it is meaning you must start paying tax at the higher rate? I thought personal deductions would be a reference to something like "tax credits" they have in UK which are based on circumstances.

Direct from horses mouth:

http://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/Foreign-Persons-Receiving-Rental-Income-From-U.S.-Real-Property

The rental of property can be considered a trade/ biz ie personal income rather than investment income- if needing some work on it basically. So like an apartment building could be / should be; but income from a long lease on a comercial property would probably not be.

Canada had a similar arrangement I thought but I'll check the facts again later as it a long time since I looked at that country and there have been many a researching so I may well be mistaken.

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[mccw]

A bit of Canadian info:

http://m.gowlings.com/KnowledgeCentre/article.asp?pubID=2043

Edited November 10, 2013 by mccw

[mccw]

Annoying; I tried to edit the above which was a longer post and it deleted down to just the link.

TV app always messing up edits; moderators should get the tech guys to sort this function out; i normally don't bother to try edit but the new look app i thought might herald a fixed system,,,, but obviously not.

So in brief.

Yes I was mistaken on Canada.

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[i claudius]

Naam ,a question ,as you are the resident expert on money matters so all say ,i fortunatly made mine not having to know about exchange rates ,or any financials, as the thread is about thai baht to GPB ,do you in your wisdom think the pound will go down a bit ,up a bit ,or stay the same ?

[Naam]

Naam ,a question ,as you are the resident expert on money matters so all say ,i fortunatly made mine not having to know about exchange rates ,or any financials, as the thread is about thai baht to GPB ,do you in your wisdom think the pound will go down a bit ,up a bit ,or stay the same ?

i don't possess any wisdom as far as exchange rates are concerned and i mentioned many times that i don't dare making any forecast no matter what timespan it pertains to.

investing in more than two dozen different currencies over a period of 35 years have taught me many -sometimes very harsh - lessons that forecasts are most of the times futile attempts or at best lucky guesses when they turn out correct.

having said so... i think the Pound is doing not badly vs. major as well as vs. minor currencies. i also think that outspoken pessimists like "mccw" and "chiang mai" use a selective approach to justify their negative thinking.