chiang mai Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 May, I ask a few questions? I know little, infact , sod all really, about financial markets etc, I have never been that "flushed" with money over the years to take an active interest. In fact its only since moving to a foreign country that I gave a toss about exchange rates at all. So, my questions are, why is it so important to you and why do you have this deep interest and concern to dig into it and read various articles, provide links etc to back up comment, have often heated discussions etc, I dont get it, whats the fasicination? Just trying to understand , no insult, dig or flame intended, just like to get some kind of handle on what I may be missing out on. Having a quick look at a 10 year graph...around 60 seems to be around the "average". http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y RAZZ A ten year average is far too long, that takes in the time when the Baht was strengthening as a result of QE, look at the five year average and it's in the high forties. And before anyone tries to make the point that a ten year average would revert to norm, because QE was ending, if you take a twenty year average you'll see it's closer to thirty five! So I think the thing to do is to rule out the anomalies and that means not considering the period prior to the crash in '97 when the Baht was hard pegged and also not considering the early affects of QE which caused an unnatural strengthening perhaps - for those reasons I think the past five years is probably the most appropriate timeframe for any look at averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The pound will remain strong for along time.. Certain flamers are now coming to realize this now.. Thailand is a sinking ship on the edge of another military coup if things don't get fixed soon.. I'm wondering whether or not you read the earlier piece that showed the rate of intervention by the BOT during the previous unrest and whether you understood it. I'm also wondering if, since ECB rates can go negative, can IQ's also! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieH Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Monday 51.7 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Monday 51.7 ! 51.55 TT rate from SCB at start of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 May, I ask a few questions? I know little, infact , sod all really, about financial markets etc, I have never been that "flushed" with money over the years to take an active interest. In fact its only since moving to a foreign country that I gave a toss about exchange rates at all. So, my questions are, why is it so important to you and why do you have this deep interest and concern to dig into it and read various articles, provide links etc to back up comment, have often heated discussions etc, I dont get it, whats the fasicination? Just trying to understand , no insult, dig or flame intended, just like to get some kind of handle on what I may be missing out on. Having a quick look at a 10 year graph...around 60 seems to be around the "average". http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y RAZZ A ten year average is far too long, that takes in the time when the Baht was strengthening as a result of QE, look at the five year average and it's in the high forties. And before anyone tries to make the point that a ten year average would revert to norm, because QE was ending, if you take a twenty year average you'll see it's closer to thirty five! So I think the thing to do is to rule out the anomalies and that means not considering the period prior to the crash in '97 when the Baht was hard pegged and also not considering the early affects of QE which caused an unnatural strengthening perhaps - for those reasons I think the past five years is probably the most appropriate timeframe for any look at averages. i don't think any randomly selected time frame is representative for any exchange rate evaluation/forecast. any additional year (back till 2004) added to the five year chart changes the picture considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huayrat Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GBP off to a great start on this sunny Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAZZELL Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 (edited) May, I ask a few questions? I know little, infact , sod all really, about financial markets etc, I have never been that "flushed" with money over the years to take an active interest. In fact its only since moving to a foreign country that I gave a toss about exchange rates at all. So, my questions are, why is it so important to you and why do you have this deep interest and concern to dig into it and read various articles, provide links etc to back up comment, have often heated discussions etc, I dont get it, whats the fasicination? Just trying to understand , no insult, dig or flame intended, just like to get some kind of handle on what I may be missing out on. Having a quick look at a 10 year graph...around 60 seems to be around the "average". http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y RAZZ A ten year average is far too long, that takes in the time when the Baht was strengthening as a result of QE, look at the five year average and it's in the high forties. And before anyone tries to make the point that a ten year average would revert to norm, because QE was ending, if you take a twenty year average you'll see it's closer to thirty five! So I think the thing to do is to rule out the anomalies and that means not considering the period prior to the crash in '97 when the Baht was hard pegged and also not considering the early affects of QE which caused an unnatural strengthening perhaps - for those reasons I think the past five years is probably the most appropriate timeframe for any look at averages. i don't think any randomly selected time frame is representative for any exchange rate evaluation/forecast. any additional year (back till 2004) added to the five year chart changes the picture considerably. GBP THB 2004-13,jpg.jpg Not about "forecasting" - about averaging/planning exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. Who could foresee Brown boom or Global Banking meltdown? After the baht was pegged to the $ - £/baht was "regularly" in 60's up to 75...I think it even reached 95 in the Thai crash? All anyone can do do is make an informed decision using past/future data. Who was it who said "facts are the mere dross of history"? RAZZ P.S - 51.70 at Superrich. Edited November 25, 2013 by RAZZELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 All anyone can do do is make an informed decision using past/future data. the only problem is from where to obtain future data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GBP overvalued against the dollar, THB likewise. Thus, one of MB's famed same same statements. CM is right to point out that these political posturings in Thailand have little effect overall, but this time I feel there is one major ramification: the further delay of the 2 bill baht investment programme. The only way for Thailand to avoid a real recession is through public investment in infrastructure. This is not going to happen with any political stalemate. The effect could be a negative spiral as consumer and business confidence dwindles. We're not talking pots and pans, ifs and buts, this is upon Thailand now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiftyTwo Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 51.8 now (xe.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 (edited) 51.8 now (xe.com) The average TT price at 5:30pm looks like 51.47. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Edited November 25, 2013 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GBP overvalued against the dollar, THB likewise. Thus, one of MB's famed same same statements. CM is right to point out that these political posturings in Thailand have little effect overall, but this time I feel there is one major ramification: the further delay of the 2 bill baht investment programme. The only way for Thailand to avoid a real recession is through public investment in infrastructure. This is not going to happen with any political stalemate. The effect could be a negative spiral as consumer and business confidence dwindles. We're not talking pots and pans, ifs and buts, this is upon Thailand now. Agreed, but it looks as though some are going for the greater good, an idea that has does have its merits - figure one lost quarter if things get sorted fairly quickly, two if they start shooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ticker2000 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 51.8 now (xe.com) The average TT price at 5:30pm looks like 51.47. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Broker UK offered 51.75 today for a lump. Ring the brokers for a real time rate. The rest is second guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ticker2000 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So you don't believe in technical chart analysis for example? T.A. is for daytraders only. Are you sure!! You are saying that only day traders use charts and associated analysis tools? Would proffer that opinion to a fund manager and see...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldgit Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Post baiting fellow member removed. Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 In response to Charly H earlier question on what's the interest in all this: 1) We were moving back to Thailand and thinking how best to invest for the very long term (we - husband and wife- are around 30, with our two little boys 4 and 6. So we are thinking about multiple decades ahead rather than short term or next cycle up or down; naturally all economies have cycles but we are looking at the trend through those cycles. Basically I think Thailand has a multi cycle growth outlook while UK is looking flat, or merger growth at best, but could be worse-much worse. 2) Amongst other things I found history very interesting at school; so went on to study politics and law at college and politics with economics at Uni; I always found these kinds of topics interesting- how people organise themselves, why and how, thinking about how different systems work/ could be working and such. Also the kinds of philosophy behind it and why people think what they do. I mean why did/ do I find these things interesting, where do these inherent (?) interests or even each thought really come from before popping in to ones head? (Forgive my waffling again) basically I'm just generally interested in it for the sake of it- no particular axe to grind or beliefs to push, I just share my views and enjoy in a good debate with different angles, especially when backed up by good reasoning, facts, figures and links. Which brings me to point three..... 3) Continued learning; I appreciate the links people provide as I can't spend all day everyday online and so if someone else finds something especially interesting chances are I might too and have missed it. So I'd encourage everyone to not be shy and post away. Also listening to others arguments forces me to constantly re-asses my own thoughts and think further; and writing the occasional long winded post also helps me organise my own thoughts and give them structure in my mind. Like the difference between reading a few books and its all information up in the mind kinda floating around; but then having the exercise of writing an essay on certain aspects / questions from that body of info really forces tying it down with some order. (A long post is no essay of course- I actually hated writing essays because its so limiting the way one paragraph needs to follow another; something like a tree would be better if you ask me, but the core of an essay does deffo steely stimulate the mental tree with the multiple branches etc) (excuse me waffling again) Welcome to the thread Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 51.8 now (xe.com) The average TT price at 5:30pm looks like 51.47. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Broker UK offered 51.75 today for a lump. Ring the brokers for a real time rate. The rest second guessing. Could you tell me which broker that's through please? When I was looking to move a large lump I contacted money corp but their rate was about a bht worse than the best Thai bank rate. They said because for Thailand they are forced to use the offshore rate while the Thai banks are onshore obviously. Same reason the uk banks are so bad / worse. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ticker2000 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 (edited) 51.8 now (xe.com) The average TT price at 5:30pm looks like 51.47. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Broker UK offered 51.75 today for a lump.Ring the brokers for a real time rate. The rest second guessing. Could you tell me which broker that's through please? When I was looking to move a large lump I contacted money corp but their rate was about a bht worse than the best Thai bank rate. They said because for Thailand they are forced to use the offshore rate while the Thai banks are onshore obviously. Same reason the uk banks are so bad / worse. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app I use various. Without offering a recommendation. I use Currency Solutions at present. Alot depends on how much, how often, being willing to negotiate and how well you get on with the broker - without meaning to sound patronising, For smaller lumps you should be getting a rate not far away from the lower end of 50's at Superrich. Obviously also depends if the market is being bid up or not at the time of your call/placement. Its being bid up at the moment or at least has been over the last couple of days. For reasonable lumps they will waiver all fees as well - but they all will. Hope that helps.. Edited November 25, 2013 by Ticker2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ticker2000 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 51.8 now (xe.com) The average TT price at 5:30pm looks like 51.47. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Broker UK offered 51.75 today for a lump.Ring the brokers for a real time rate. The rest second guessing. Could you tell me which broker that's through please? When I was looking to move a large lump I contacted money corp but their rate was about a bht worse than the best Thai bank rate. They said because for Thailand they are forced to use the offshore rate while the Thai banks are onshore obviously. Same reason the uk banks are so bad / worse. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app I use various. Without offering a recommendation. I use Currency Solutions at present. Alot depends on how much, how often, being willing to negotiate and how well you get on with the broker - without meaning to sound patronising, For smaller lumps you should be getting a rate not far away from the lower end of 50's at Superrich. Obviously also depends if the market is being bid up or not at the time of your call/placement. Its being bid up at the moment or at least has been over the last couple of days. For reasonable lumps they will waiver all fees as well - but they all will. Hope that helps.. "lower end of 50's" - in case not clear the lower end of rate that Superrich will offer for 50's cash. This is if the market is being bid. If not the rate offered should not be far away from the rate offered - but depends greatly on the factors I listed - the biggest is alway how much and how often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 From sky news: The Royal Bank of Scotland has hired a law firm to investigate allegations the bank deliberately drove small businesses to collapse for its own gain. The claims are contained in a dossier, compiled by government adviser Lawrence Tomlinson, which has now been passed to City regulators by Business Secretary Vince Cable, as Sky News revealed at the weekend. The report suggests RBS - the largest lender in the UK to small firms - drove businesses to collapse so it could buy back their assets at rock-bottom prices. Chancellor George Osborne has described the allegations as "shocking", but small business campaigners say anecdotal evidence suggests the practice was widespread. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So you don't believe in technical chart analysis for example? T.A. is for daytraders only. Are you sure!! You are saying that only day traders use charts and associated analysis tools? Would proffer that opinion to a fund manager and see...... we are talking currencies in this thread. successful currency fund managers are basically daytraders too to maximise yields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ticker2000 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 (edited) So you don't believe in technical chart analysis for example? T.A. is for daytraders only. Are you sure!! You are saying that only day traders use charts and associated analysis tools? Would proffer that opinion to a fund manager and see...... we are talking currencies in this thread. successful currency fund managers are basically daytraders too to maximise yields. I obviously do not agree with the loose ness of your post in regards to day traders - i.e.. no distinction made between those that hold longer positions (whether fund mangers or not and whether in currencies or not) and those that trade more frequently - At any rate Charts and TA are of use to them both for many of the same and different reasons. Therefore we clearly do not agree on the definition of day trader. This link will help clarify for the board what a day trader is in contrast to those that go long - very different. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_trading Anyway my point is that to me and many others (and I am not a day trader or trader in any way anymore) charts are another useful tool (amongst many) to help evaluate movements in all things traded whether on a in short term of long term position - including currencies. If we have to agree to differ than so be it . But by disagreeing you will be of stating that charts and the various ways of interpreting them are of absolutely no use in any form in the evaluation of currency movements to anyone or body of people - except day traders? Edited November 26, 2013 by Ticker2000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 (edited) i am always stating my personal view/opinion when facts are not available. if somebody disagrees... i couldn't care less. by the way, there's a huge difference between evaluation a chart which shows the past and applying technical analysis. i consider T.A. "voodoo, tea leaves, crystal ball" and have managed without it to with success. Edited November 26, 2013 by Naam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 meanwhile in Thailand USDTHB TT rate 31.97, GBPTHB TT rate 51.595 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Little chance of US QE ending soon and the prospect of low interest rates seems most likely: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/25/us-usa-rates-lower-analysis-idUSBRE9AO0XK20131125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topt Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Little chance of US QE ending soon and the prospect of low interest rates seems most likely: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/25/us-usa-rates-lower-analysis-idUSBRE9AO0XK20131125 The question may be more about tapering (rather than ending) and if so how much. This was from a XE.com currency analysis mail I received last night - "Most importantly, the greenback unwound its early weekly losses after the Federal Reserve hinted that its third quantitative easing program may be tapered within the next few meetings. While the U.S. central bank is only expected to cut its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion to $80 billion, the first reduction to the quantitative easing program is widely expected to be the canary in the coalmine for cascading episodes of tapering." And on GBP - "Sterling, the recent darling of the currency sphere, touched its best level in four weeks against the U.S. dollar last Friday before fractionally retracing overnight. Investors have piled onto the U.K. pound after the Bank of England wrote of the island nation’s sustained economic recovery over two weeks ago in its quarterly inflation report. Central bank officials have since tried to blunt the report’s optimism, but that didn’t prevent Great Britain’s pound from nearing its best levels this year against the buck, and three-and-a-half-year peaks against the loonie. The key litmus test to sterling’s continued rally will be this Wednesday’s U.K. Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) report, which economists hope will show 1.5% in annualized growth." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Little chance of US QE ending soon and the prospect of low interest rates seems most likely: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/25/us-usa-rates-lower-analysis-idUSBRE9AO0XK20131125 The question may be more about tapering (rather than ending) and if so how much. This was from a XE.com currency analysis mail I received last night - "Most importantly, the greenback unwound its early weekly losses after the Federal Reserve hinted that its third quantitative easing program may be tapered within the next few meetings. While the U.S. central bank is only expected to cut its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion to $80 billion, the first reduction to the quantitative easing program is widely expected to be the canary in the coalmine for cascading episodes of tapering." And on GBP - "Sterling, the recent darling of the currency sphere, touched its best level in four weeks against the U.S. dollar last Friday before fractionally retracing overnight. Investors have piled onto the U.K. pound after the Bank of England wrote of the island nation’s sustained economic recovery over two weeks ago in its quarterly inflation report. Central bank officials have since tried to blunt the report’s optimism, but that didn’t prevent Great Britain’s pound from nearing its best levels this year against the buck, and three-and-a-half-year peaks against the loonie. The key litmus test to sterling’s continued rally will be this Wednesday’s U.K. Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) report, which economists hope will show 1.5% in annualized growth." You are correct, I had meant to write the word "tapering" but didn't, my apologies. But it does look as though USD is going to remain lower for longer so there doesn't seem to be much hope for strengthening in the short term. The other side of the coin is whether GBP can remain as strong as it is and for how long, we hope it will but such things don't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 """" Separately, a report in the Financial Times today cites research by the UK's government's Manufacturing Advisory Service, that found that one in six British manufacturer has brought production back onshore or are doing so. The survey of over 500 small and medium size firms found that the on-shoring is outstripping off-shorting by a magnitude of almost 4-to-1. The three most common reasons for the change were cost-savings (26%), improving quality (20%) and reducing the lead times (18%). """" From biz insider app. I expect the UK policy will be to keep a competitive / low pound so that the above rebalancing they wish for continues. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 An interesting exchange between Carney and the Treasury Select Committee, as if we didn't already know: Is this recovery sustainable, given its reliance on consumer demand, asks David Ruffley. Recoveries are seldom led by business investment. There needs to be a source of demand first. That demand is not going to come from outside our shores. The eurozone has improved somewhat but it’s still very weak. The question is the extent to which domestic demand improves. My translation of that is, the consumer is going to get squeezed until the pips squeak, higher taxes and fewer benefits and yes, that includes Council Taxes also - expect UK property sales to be promoted even further because property sales taxes are an easy source of revenue! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10474588/Business-news-and-markets-live.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ticker2000 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Well i did not expect the rate to perk up at the end of play - may well be on for another movement up today. However broker called and said in his view it is very healthy rate at present and maybe should hedge and book some at todays rate. Decided to hold on - greed you see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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