What's Up With The Thai Baht?

[Naam]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

if the market goes against the €UR then nothing will prevent it going down.

[StreetCowboy]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

if the market goes against the €UR then nothing will prevent it going down.

But will that give them the inflation that they need to reduce their salaries and benefits, and wash away their debts?

[mccw]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

if the market goes against the ¤UR then nothing will prevent it going down.

What about the bond purchase program's and other round about financing mechanisms that basically = printing when all the Mumbo jumbo is stripped away? Don't be fooled by the acronyms hiding what they are doing. They are all at it. Only some EU countries are forced in to real austerity cuts and tax rises aswell; doubly hurting the effected populations.

[Naam]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

if the market goes against the €UR then nothing will prevent it going down.

But will that give them the inflation that they need to reduce their salaries and benefits, and wash away their debts?

sorry, i have no idea what you are talking about.

[StreetCowboy]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

if the market goes against the €UR then nothing will prevent it going down.

But will that give them the inflation that they need to reduce their salaries and benefits, and wash away their debts?

sorry, i have no idea what you are talking about.

Inflation reduces the value of debts and reduces the value of wages and benefits, if corresponding pay rises are not awarded. WIll a decline in the value of the Euro significantly affect inflation in the Eurozone, or is their economy largely self-contained?

SC

[hopdafru]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

.

.

THB went up 7% in the last week vs Lao Kip as well. People flocking to thailand for jobs as daily wage there is now almost twice as much as here (short time daily jobs - otherwise quadruple)

As for EUR, as Lao Kip fixed to USD, very good deal to stay here, EUR keeps rising and we get 11% on 1 year fixed account in Kip (9% yearly for 6 months)

[BlackJack]

I dont know why people arent investing here

if you're living here and spending thai bahts then invest here

NOT in housing but in the infrastructure

theres plenty of good funds around

or buy other currencies - not the US$ or the UK pound or the Franc

buy some gold

buy a house to live in and save rent

sell the children = non performing assets

[mccw]

I dont know why people arent investing here

if you're living here and spending thai bahts then invest here

NOT in housing but in the infrastructure

theres plenty of good funds around

or buy other currencies - not the US$ or the UK pound or the Franc

buy some gold

buy a house to live in and save rent

sell the children = non performing assets

Can you suggest some good funds please?

[BlackJack]

I dont know why people arent investing here

if you're living here and spending thai bahts then invest here

NOT in housing but in the infrastructure

theres plenty of good funds around

or buy other currencies - not the US$ or the UK pound or the Franc

buy some gold

buy a house to live in and save rent

sell the children = non performing assets

Can you suggest some good funds please?

i am not a financial advisor but have a look at http://tools.morningstarthailand.com/th/fundquickrank/default.aspx?Site=th&LanguageId=en-TH

look at the 10 year 5 3 1 year performance

last year it was 2]0]FOTHA$$ONS&ClientFund=0&LanguageId=en-TH&CurrencyId=THB&UniverseId=FOTHA$$ONS&BaseCurrencyId=THB"]Bualuang Top-Ten Fund

good luck

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed.

[fletchsmile]

Was searching for something today and funnily enough came across this thread.on the GBP/THB debate :

http://www.thaivisa....g/page__st__150

You have to smile at the way many of the same themes get repeated years later. The following quote still sum up the risks of being a die hard UK and GBP proponent, who hopes/ expect that things could revert:

ukjackthai, on 2007-12-10 16:19:45, said:

100% cash in GBP 6.51% AER offshore. Only transfer (spending money) to LOS when THB/GBP rates are high.

Practicle? or stupid?

Camerata Posted 2007-12-10 16:59:16:

This is what I am planning to do for my retirement. But my worry is the pound might drop and stay low against the baht for a longer period than I can handle. If only there was something worth investing in in Thailand.

Ouch! I hope there was a rethink somewhere along the line.

Some old favourites on there: (Dr.)Naam, GuestHouse, Sonicdragon (wonder what happened to him - always had insightful economic posts), Camerata.

Entertainingly summing up of the characters below by JimsKnight. Anyone think they've changed?

Wow the posts are going back and forth here! Good thread!

Guesthouse flys the flag for the sterling stalwats while Dr N. and his quirky crew jump about hullabooing about offshore strategies.

Keep flying that flag GH you've made some interesting points!

Fletch

Edited February 7, 2013 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

(contd.) The questions asked then are still relevant: you still need to consider what you'll do if exchange rates and interest rates move further against you and inflation kicks in further. Keeping your money in UK in GBP where you think it is "safe" compared to Thailand isn't the answer....

As it happens over the last 5 years, GBP/THB FX rates did drop 30% and GBP interest rates were decimated from 6% to 7% to around 2% or less.

While I liked Guesthouse's analogy on the THB and tarts draws, it looks like the die hard sterling fans came off worst in the last 5 years, and looks like Ukjackthai and GH might have kept the tart in good company in getting caught with their own trousers down. Wonder what the next 5 years will bring....

][/b]

ukjackthai, on 2007-12-10 16:19:45, said:

Idealism!

100% cash in GBP 6.51% AER offshore. Only transfer (spending money) to LOS when THB/GBP rates are high.

Practicle? or stupid?

GuestHouse, on 2007-12-10 16:38:07, said:

While I don't see the need to put money offshore - tax free and feeless accounts are available on the mainland with better interest rates.

But in all other respects this is a good policy.

The Thai Baht is up and down like a tarts draws over any 12 month period. Just buy when you are happy with the rate.

And Is offshore really safe from the Tax-Man?

Fletchsmile Posted 2007-12-21 10:20:18

GH ... This is a dangerous policy for someone based in Thailand. Not particularly good I would say either for someone in UK over long term. You also shouldn't be looking at simply exchange rates over 12 months. Additionally very surprised you can deem it a good policy on the absolute minimum of info given. We know nothing of the guys backgrounds, age, etc

What happens when the exchange rates half, interest rates half, and inflation kicks in? At say 3% inflation that will half in real value over around 20-25 years. At 7% it will have in 10 years.

Sorry but on say a 25 year time frame: 100% in a single currency, outside where you are living, in a single asset, eg cash, which has no protection from inflation, is not a good policy, and I would say risky.

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8. Could the guy live in Thailand on 1/8 of what he doesn't now in real terms in 25 years. If not he could be eating into capital and on a downard spiral.

Think this scenario is unrealistic?

eg Between 1981-1997 THB was much lower than now. It has had 10 years at high rates following the Asian crisis.

eg Inflation of 3% is quite benign. As Thailand develops price gaps will narrow as it eventually trends to second and first world prices.

eg BoE has been cutting rates in its last two moves. You only need go back to 2003 to see base rates below 4%

Fletch

Edited February 7, 2013 by fletchsmile

[MrWorldwide]

But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

Bingo - I was just about to comment on the THB-MYR relationship before stumbling on your post. For as long as I can remember, the two were in lockstep - now the baht seems to want to pull away from that cozy relationship.

Looking at the 5yr chart, it appears that their '10:1' relationship may simply have coincided with periods when I was able to travel to both countries, but the vast majority of that chart puts the Ringgit somewhere between 9.5 and 10.5 baht.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=THB&view=5Y

On a side note, I am a lot happier to see the AUD consistently at or above 3 Ringgit since 2011 - if it slumps below 2.7, I just wont go back to Malaysia in 2014. Fingers crossed.

[Lizard0]

The Canadian Dollar has been worth more than the U.S. lately, but before 1972 the Canadian Dollar was always worth more that the U.S. Lets hope that they do not devalue.

CDN has strengthened some. Our economy never tanked like the US, and they still were above 1.00 during the entire 'crisis'.

Honestly, I could never understand how a country with so much debt and nothing tied to their dollar to limit printing, could be at par with us.

The BHT increase seems at the same rate as either CDN/USD.

Guess these things are rarely logical though :/

[chiangmaikelly]

The Canadian Dollar has been worth more than the U.S. lately, but before 1972 the Canadian Dollar was always worth more that the U.S. Lets hope that they do not devalue.

CDN has strengthened some. Our economy never tanked like the US, and they still were above 1.00 during the entire 'crisis'.

Honestly, I could never understand how a country with so much debt and nothing tied to their dollar to limit printing, could be at par with us.

The BHT increase seems at the same rate as either CDN/USD.

Guess these things are rarely logical though :/

No not at all.

Edited February 8, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiangmaikelly]

The Canadian Dollar has been worth more than the U.S. lately, but before 1972 the Canadian Dollar was always worth more that the U.S. Lets hope that they do not devalue.

Where does one find old currency conversion rate charts? I can only seem to find 20 years ago as the oldest.

[Naam]

The Canadian Dollar has been worth more than the U.S. lately, but before 1972 the Canadian Dollar was always worth more that the U.S. Lets hope that they do not devalue.

Where does one find old currency conversion rate charts? I can only seem to find 20 years ago as the oldest.

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html

[Naam]

The Canadian Dollar has been worth more than the U.S. lately, but before 1972 the Canadian Dollar was always worth more that the U.S. Lets hope that they do not devalue.

CDN has strengthened some. Our economy never tanked like the US, and they still were above 1.00 during the entire 'crisis'.

Honestly, I could never understand how a country with so much debt and nothing tied to their dollar to limit printing, could be at par with us.

The BHT increase seems at the same rate as either CDN/USD.

Guess these things are rarely logical though :/

Can Dollar = CAD

[chiangmaikelly]

The Canadian Dollar has been worth more than the U.S. lately, but before 1972 the Canadian Dollar was always worth more that the U.S. Lets hope that they do not devalue.

Where does one find old currency conversion rate charts? I can only seem to find 20 years ago as the oldest.

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html

Thanks but it only goes to 1971. I seem to remember in the 60's it was around .80 cents CAD to the US dollar.

[hopdafru]

have started to watch this series on the fall of america, quite interesting and in my view plausible as with so much national debt people holding USD will (are?) soon try to 'get rid' of them - I wonder in exchange for what... other currencies? (which ones?) land / businesses in Asia? (I'm still not sure about gold being the top/best investment)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DHmgM2MmFo

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value, how would such a scenario affect the THB? (and other SEA currencies such as kip which seems pegged to the USD?)

[chiangmaikelly]

have started to watch this series on the fall of america, quite interesting and in my view plausible as with so much national debt people holding USD will (are?) soon try to 'get rid' of them - I wonder in exchange for what... other currencies? (which ones?) land / businesses in Asia? (I'm still not sure about gold being the top/best investment)

https://www.youtube....h?v=-DHmgM2MmFo

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value, how would such a scenario affect the THB? (and other SEA currencies such as kip which seems pegged to the USD?)

I guess you should ask the largest holder of US debt outside of the USA.

[JDGRUEN]

have started to watch this series on the fall of america, quite interesting and in my view plausible as with so much national debt people holding USD will (are?) soon try to 'get rid' of them - I wonder in exchange for what... other currencies? (which ones?) land / businesses in Asia? (I'm still not sure about gold being the top/best investment)

https://www.youtube....h?v=-DHmgM2MmFo

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value, how would such a scenario affect the THB? (and other SEA currencies such as kip which seems pegged to the USD?)

The Thai Baht 'floats' against the value of the USD. It used to be 'pegged' back in late 1990s and caused a big problem then. It is not a 'distinction without a difference' 'pegged' versus float' but I am not an expert. Just use google or whatever if you want definitions. As I have posted before - the USD is a world reserve currency (as is well known) and what happens to the Dollar has great potetntial effect on all other currencies. Those countries that hold large amounts of U.S. Debt in Treasury Bills can have a lot of influence of what happens to the Baht and other currencies - sort of the domino effect - depending upon world events in this year and coming years to make an understatement.... U.S. Dept has skyrocketed over the past 5-6 years and is continuing to do so at an unbridled pace.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

Billions of dollars)

HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD

Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov

Country 2012 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2011* 2011

------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

China, Mainland 1170.1 1169.9 1153.6 1155.2 1160.0 1147.0 1164.0 1164.4 1144.0 1155.2 1166.2 1151.9 1254.6

Japan 1132.8 1131.9 1128.5 1120.9 1119.8 1108.4 1107.0 1087.7 1080.3 1088.4 1080.6 1058.4 1066.4

Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/ 283.7 273.5 261.1 263.9 247.6 245.4 244.2 238.4 235.4 232.9 224.6 227.2 223.3

Oil Exporters 3/ 260.1 262.2 267.2 269.1 266.5 268.4 258.4 259.9 260.0 267.6 267.6 261.1 254.2

Brazil 257.0 254.1 251.2 259.8 256.5 244.3 245.8 245.9 238.1 228.4 228.2 226.9 226.6

Taiwan 193.1 197.2 201.7 199.5 194.4 196.4 190.0 187.3 190.1 183.7 178.4 177.3 166.9

Switzerland 186.9 187.8 193.5 191.7 184.8 172.3 155.1 150.3 150.7 145.4 146.5 142.4 126.2

Russia 164.1 171.1 163.5 162.9 156.2 163.8 156.3 155.4 151.1 144.8 145.7 149.5 145.1

United Kingdom 2/ 145.0 133.2 137.9 137.1 135.4 138.0 137.3 136.9 126.4 119.0 116.2 114.3 125.2

Luxembourg 144.8 144.7 147.6 138.9 135.1 137.9 130.6 129.7 139.7 140.6 139.6 147.6 127.2

Hong Kong 142.3 138.5 137.1 141.7 137.1 136.0 143.8 145.0 140.3 141.9 134.3 121.7 107.9

Belgium 135.4 136.4 133.2 130.2 141.3 144.5 132.0 132.3 141.7 125.2 131.5 135.2 133.2

Ireland 97.0 97.4 96.9 94.6 93.2 91.3 93.9 95.1 94.2 96.0 86.2 97.7 70.2

Singapore 91.6 97.5 94.4 96.9 96.4 86.9 83.1 82.5 84.7 84.6 74.8 75.1 70.0

Norway 75.8 75.5 73.9 71.4 68.2 68.6 67.9 64.8 61.0 59.4 57.3 56.7 40.3

Canada 66.4 58.3 60.6 61.3 61.3 52.7 55.8 63.8 54.2 53.9 48.0 45.1 48.7

Germany 66.0 64.0 65.5 66.2 66.5 64.0 65.1 62.7 64.6 60.7 60.9 60.7 67.8

France 65.5 58.7 59.3 52.9 55.2 49.1 50.6 49.8 45.9 39.7 42.5 44.7 59.4

Mexico 59.6 59.2 56.5 57.2 53.9 51.6 45.8 40.9 35.9 31.8 30.1 29.4 31.7

India 58.6 59.6 59.7 60.6 59.3 53.8 50.0 49.3 46.7 44.1 42.8 43.5 38.4

Thailand 57.0 58.6 64.3 58.7 53.0 53.1 53.5 52.2 54.7 54.3 54.5 51.6 56.0

Turkey 55.3 51.6 42.6 34.6 30.3 29.1 27.1 28.1 30.4 30.1 27.4 32.0 40.2

Korea 43.4 42.2 42.1 44.1 46.5 44.5 46.3 43.9 42.7 50.8 49.9 47.3 42.1

Philippines 37.2 36.9 37.0 37.1 36.9 35.4 36.5 36.8 37.1 37.1 35.7 32.7 31.7

Chile 33.1 30.9 30.3 30.1 29.7 26.7 26.4 24.5 21.9 22.5 22.3 23.0 24.9

Israel 31.0 28.9 25.8 25.0 23.1 24.6 24.8 23.7 22.8 23.0 22.7 19.3 19.4

Netherlands 30.4 30.7 27.0 27.4 25.8 26.2 26.2 24.7 23.4 25.0 25.2 21.7 24.1

Poland 29.5 30.4 30.0 29.4 28.8 29.9 28.4 28.4 27.5 27.3 28.7 28.5 27.9

Sweden 28.4 29.0 27.6 28.0 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.6 28.5 29.2 28.9 30.4

Colombia 28.3 29.9 29.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.9 26.7 25.1 25.2 23.5 20.0

Italy 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.5 24.1 23.3 22.7 22.8 21.2

Australia 27.4 26.7 25.7 27.6 26.7 25.3 29.7 25.8 22.6 23.5 22.2 21.8 24.1

Spain 25.2 25.3 25.5 24.2 24.5 26.6 21.7 21.2 21.1 21.3 23.7 24.0 16.3

Malaysia 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.5 20.9 20.6 20.6 18.5

Denmark 15.1 14.9 15.2 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.6 15.4 15.4 15.9 16.5 13.6

Peru 13.6 13.4 11.9 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.4 10.5 10.1 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.5

South Africa 13.0 12.8 13.0 12.8 13.0 13.2 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.9 12.9 12.1 11.3

All Other 245.7 246.2 238.5 233.4 221.7 227.6 227.4 225.2 222.2 217.2 214.0 205.9 195.3

Grand Total 5557.2 5526.2 5475.4 5446.5 5379.7 5312.4 5264.9 5215.3 5148.3 5110.6 5063.8 5007.4 5009.1

[fletchsmile]

have started to watch this series on the fall of america, quite interesting and in my view plausible as with so much national debt people holding USD will (are?) soon try to 'get rid' of them - I wonder in exchange for what... other currencies? (which ones?) land / businesses in Asia? (I'm still not sure about gold being the top/best investment)

https://www.youtube....h?v=-DHmgM2MmFo

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value, how would such a scenario affect the THB? (and other SEA currencies such as kip which seems pegged to the USD?)

I guess you should ask the largest holder of US debt outside of the USA.

They're on holiday at the moment.

Gong Xi Fa Cai.

Fletch

[Naam]

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value

when in 1974 i accepted my first position offshore with the remuneration denominated in US-Dollars i was warned by various parties of the currency's highly likely significant fall in value.

quite a number of rainy seasons have passed since then, all accompanied by uncountable assumptions and stern warnings that any time after next weekend the USD will fall value wise into the abyss. attached to the assumptions and warnings was most of the times "this time it's different and it surely will happen!"

[yoshiwara]

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value

when in 1974 i accepted my first position offshore with the remuneration denominated in US-Dollars i was warned by various parties of the currency's highly likely significant fall in value.

quite a number of rainy seasons have passed since then, all accompanied by uncountable assumptions and stern warnings that any time after next weekend the USD will fall value wise into the abyss. attached to the assumptions and warnings was most of the times "this time it's different and it surely will happen!"

When someone says 'assuming this' , 'assuming that' it is really worthless unless accompanied by something along the lines of 'I am therefore recommending taking the position of covering yourself by buying x,y,z'. The trouble with the 'assuming (enter apocalyptic event here)' statements is that they are often a coy cover for the gold bugs who are trying to pull the thread in a particular direction.

[StreetCowboy]

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value

when in 1974 i accepted my first position offshore with the remuneration denominated in US-Dollars i was warned by various parties of the currency's highly likely significant fall in value.

quite a number of rainy seasons have passed since then, all accompanied by uncountable assumptions and stern warnings that any time after next weekend the USD will fall value wise into the abyss. attached to the assumptions and warnings was most of the times "this time it's different and it surely will happen!"

When someone says 'assuming this' , 'assuming that' it is really worthless unless accompanied by something along the lines of 'I am therefore recommending taking the position of covering yourself by buying x,y,z'. The trouble with the 'assuming (enter apocalyptic event here)' statements is that they are often a coy cover for the gold bugs who are trying to pull the thread in a particular direction.

Although in the case quoted, he was using that as a basis for a question.

If we assume the USD will fall, what will happen, and what should we do?

If we assume that the USD will not fall, what will happen, and what should we do?

Those recommendations that crop up in response to both questions are probably a good thing to do. Those that crop up in one answer only, then one should do, or not do, them, depending on your faith in the USD.

SC

[Denizen]

i believe it is only short term, i have seen it strengthen in the last few days .........

All people with currency holdings in GBP should be worried. The UK has a trade deficit which is not narrowing and UK oil and gas production is declining which means more oil and gas imports which will further pressure the GBP.

This is a long term issue and GBP is unlikely to improve soon. It took Australia 25 years to recover from declining currency value but that recovery was only due to recent minerals and oil and gas investment boom which is causing decline in Australian manufacturing and service industries because high currency price affected their competitiveness.

Invest in violin futures and hat futures if long on GBP.

[Thailand Bound]

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value

when in 1974 i accepted my first position offshore with the remuneration denominated in US-Dollars i was warned by various parties of the currency's highly likely significant fall in value.

quite a number of rainy seasons have passed since then, all accompanied by uncountable assumptions and stern warnings that any time after next weekend the USD will fall value wise into the abyss. attached to the assumptions and warnings was most of the times "this time it's different and it surely will happen!"

When someone says 'assuming this' , 'assuming that' it is really worthless unless accompanied by something along the lines of 'I am therefore recommending taking the position of covering yourself by buying x,y,z'. The trouble with the 'assuming (enter apocalyptic event here)' statements is that they are often a coy cover for the gold bugs who are trying to pull the thread in a particular direction.

Not worrying about assuming what you will post and the spirit it will posted Yoshi, you will always post a statement that does not tie you down one way or the other on anything of even minimum importance except to give your thoughts about how gold bugs are the worst scum to slither the face of the earth.

[Lizard0]

have started to watch this series on the fall of america, quite interesting and in my view plausible as with so much national debt people holding USD will (are?) soon try to 'get rid' of them - I wonder in exchange for what... other currencies? (which ones?) land / businesses in Asia? (I'm still not sure about gold being the top/best investment)

https://www.youtube....h?v=-DHmgM2MmFo

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value, how would such a scenario affect the THB? (and other SEA currencies such as kip which seems pegged to the USD?)

The Thai Baht 'floats' against the value of the USD. It used to be 'pegged' back in late 1990s and caused a big problem then. It is not a 'distinction without a difference' 'pegged' versus float' but I am not an expert. Just use google or whatever if you want definitions. As I have posted before - the USD is a world reserve currency (as is well known) and what happens to the Dollar has great potetntial effect on all other currencies. Those countries that hold large amounts of U.S. Debt in Treasury Bills can have a lot of influence of what happens to the Baht and other currencies - sort of the domino effect - depending upon world events in this year and coming years to make an understatement.... U.S. Dept has skyrocketed over the past 5-6 years and is continuing to do so at an unbridled pace.

http://www.treasury....cuments/mfh.txt

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

Billions of dollars)

HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD

Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov

Country 2012 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2012* 2011* 2011

------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

China, Mainland 1170.1 1169.9 1153.6 1155.2 1160.0 1147.0 1164.0 1164.4 1144.0 1155.2 1166.2 1151.9 1254.6

Japan 1132.8 1131.9 1128.5 1120.9 1119.8 1108.4 1107.0 1087.7 1080.3 1088.4 1080.6 1058.4 1066.4

Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/ 283.7 273.5 261.1 263.9 247.6 245.4 244.2 238.4 235.4 232.9 224.6 227.2 223.3

Oil Exporters 3/ 260.1 262.2 267.2 269.1 266.5 268.4 258.4 259.9 260.0 267.6 267.6 261.1 254.2

Brazil 257.0 254.1 251.2 259.8 256.5 244.3 245.8 245.9 238.1 228.4 228.2 226.9 226.6

Taiwan 193.1 197.2 201.7 199.5 194.4 196.4 190.0 187.3 190.1 183.7 178.4 177.3 166.9

Switzerland 186.9 187.8 193.5 191.7 184.8 172.3 155.1 150.3 150.7 145.4 146.5 142.4 126.2

Russia 164.1 171.1 163.5 162.9 156.2 163.8 156.3 155.4 151.1 144.8 145.7 149.5 145.1

United Kingdom 2/ 145.0 133.2 137.9 137.1 135.4 138.0 137.3 136.9 126.4 119.0 116.2 114.3 125.2

Luxembourg 144.8 144.7 147.6 138.9 135.1 137.9 130.6 129.7 139.7 140.6 139.6 147.6 127.2

Hong Kong 142.3 138.5 137.1 141.7 137.1 136.0 143.8 145.0 140.3 141.9 134.3 121.7 107.9

Belgium 135.4 136.4 133.2 130.2 141.3 144.5 132.0 132.3 141.7 125.2 131.5 135.2 133.2

Ireland 97.0 97.4 96.9 94.6 93.2 91.3 93.9 95.1 94.2 96.0 86.2 97.7 70.2

Singapore 91.6 97.5 94.4 96.9 96.4 86.9 83.1 82.5 84.7 84.6 74.8 75.1 70.0

Norway 75.8 75.5 73.9 71.4 68.2 68.6 67.9 64.8 61.0 59.4 57.3 56.7 40.3

Canada 66.4 58.3 60.6 61.3 61.3 52.7 55.8 63.8 54.2 53.9 48.0 45.1 48.7

Germany 66.0 64.0 65.5 66.2 66.5 64.0 65.1 62.7 64.6 60.7 60.9 60.7 67.8

France 65.5 58.7 59.3 52.9 55.2 49.1 50.6 49.8 45.9 39.7 42.5 44.7 59.4

Mexico 59.6 59.2 56.5 57.2 53.9 51.6 45.8 40.9 35.9 31.8 30.1 29.4 31.7

India 58.6 59.6 59.7 60.6 59.3 53.8 50.0 49.3 46.7 44.1 42.8 43.5 38.4

Thailand 57.0 58.6 64.3 58.7 53.0 53.1 53.5 52.2 54.7 54.3 54.5 51.6 56.0

Turkey 55.3 51.6 42.6 34.6 30.3 29.1 27.1 28.1 30.4 30.1 27.4 32.0 40.2

Korea 43.4 42.2 42.1 44.1 46.5 44.5 46.3 43.9 42.7 50.8 49.9 47.3 42.1

Philippines 37.2 36.9 37.0 37.1 36.9 35.4 36.5 36.8 37.1 37.1 35.7 32.7 31.7

Chile 33.1 30.9 30.3 30.1 29.7 26.7 26.4 24.5 21.9 22.5 22.3 23.0 24.9

Israel 31.0 28.9 25.8 25.0 23.1 24.6 24.8 23.7 22.8 23.0 22.7 19.3 19.4

Netherlands 30.4 30.7 27.0 27.4 25.8 26.2 26.2 24.7 23.4 25.0 25.2 21.7 24.1

Poland 29.5 30.4 30.0 29.4 28.8 29.9 28.4 28.4 27.5 27.3 28.7 28.5 27.9

Sweden 28.4 29.0 27.6 28.0 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.6 28.5 29.2 28.9 30.4

Colombia 28.3 29.9 29.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.9 26.7 25.1 25.2 23.5 20.0

Italy 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.5 24.1 23.3 22.7 22.8 21.2

Australia 27.4 26.7 25.7 27.6 26.7 25.3 29.7 25.8 22.6 23.5 22.2 21.8 24.1

Spain 25.2 25.3 25.5 24.2 24.5 26.6 21.7 21.2 21.1 21.3 23.7 24.0 16.3

Malaysia 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.5 20.9 20.6 20.6 18.5

Denmark 15.1 14.9 15.2 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.6 15.4 15.4 15.9 16.5 13.6

Peru 13.6 13.4 11.9 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.4 10.5 10.1 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.5

South Africa 13.0 12.8 13.0 12.8 13.0 13.2 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.9 12.9 12.1 11.3

All Other 245.7 246.2 238.5 233.4 221.7 227.6 227.4 225.2 222.2 217.2 214.0 205.9 195.3

Grand Total 5557.2 5526.2 5475.4 5446.5 5379.7 5312.4 5264.9 5215.3 5148.3 5110.6 5063.8 5007.4 5009.1

Wow some surprising countries on that list. RUS for one lol.

Never knew JPN was so over a trillion either

Guess its all cool as long as they never ask for their money back

[Naam]

Assuming the USD will fall significantly in value

when in 1974 i accepted my first position offshore with the remuneration denominated in US-Dollars i was warned by various parties of the currency's highly likely significant fall in value.

quite a number of rainy seasons have passed since then, all accompanied by uncountable assumptions and stern warnings that any time after next weekend the USD will fall value wise into the abyss. attached to the assumptions and warnings was most of the times "this time it's different and it surely will happen!"

When someone says 'assuming this' , 'assuming that' it is really worthless unless accompanied by something along the lines of 'I am therefore recommending taking the position of covering yourself by buying x,y,z'. The trouble with the 'assuming (enter apocalyptic event here)' statements is that they are often a coy cover for the gold bugs who are trying to pull the thread in a particular direction.

Not worrying about assuming what you will post and the spirit it will posted Yoshi, you will always post a statement that does not tie you down one way or the other on anything of even minimum importance except to give your thoughts about how gold bugs are the worst scum to slither the face of the earth.

there are goldbugs and there are goldbugs Th-Bound.

-reasonable people who hold gold in high esteem,

-naïve ignorants who take anything they read or hear at face value,

-plain stupid ones who aren't able to make a simple realistic financial judgment,

-poor ones who hope that the value of <insert number> ounces they own will skyrocket and make them rich,

-scum which bends the truth, spreads blatant lies and insults anybody who does not agree with the ridiculous gospel they spread.