The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[StreetCowboy]

For openers, I shorted the hell out of the Chinese stock market 2 years

ago when "everyone" was saying to go all in in China. Why did I short it

while most "experts" were saying to go long? Because I have common

sense. The West is China's big market. The West stumbled. How could that

not affect China?

I went contrarian and dam_n near doubled my money.

a common misconception is to equate markets and their asset prices with the

economy of a country. whatever i touched in 2009 in my niche of investments

did not double but tripled and quadrupled in price. some stock markets (e.g. DOW)

are at all time highs or higher than precrash Lehman 2008. does that mean the

economies to whom these markets belong are in good shape? no, it does not!

you could make 300% profit with Greek government bonds last year. is Greece's

rating triple A? no, Greece is still a potential bankruptcy candidate. the list of

similar examples is endless.

by the way, not all experts suggested to go long China, au contraire! anybody with

common sense could see (and read) that gamblers took the SSE to heights which

were not at all justified and it took several years to shake out hot money which was

borrowed. your shorting was the right decision but the reason you claim is not valid.

"your shorting was the right decision but the reason you claim is not valid."

Of course the reason was valid. WHO is posting the charts here? WHO is talking off their heads, and who is doing research?

China's biggest customers suddenly went deep into recession. What's that going to do to China? What's it doing to China?

China is going bust.

You mean its liabilities exceed its assets?

Are they weighed down by excessive personal and government debt?

Or long-term commitments to unproductive economic or administrative programmes?

Or do you just mean that their equity and property assets are still over-valued?

SC

[NeverSure]

I agree with CMK - with your contempt I hope you are not considering CM as your temporary home in Thailand Go somewhere where worldly views and domestic bashing is accepted :-)

Don't think for one moment that I don't love Thailand. Believing it's in a bubble is different from not loving it.

[NeverSure]

It has nothing to do with the Thai baht. There is a group of posters here who point out the glass is half full in every post. The baht has gone up and Western currencies have gone down. The baht did not go up because of corruption. How Western expats are going to cope with declining income is the topic. Stop bashing Thailand for a minute and re read the OP.

Well I think the baht did go up partly due to corruption. There has been a massive inflow of foreign capital to Thailand. Every bit of that money has to be converted to baht, creating a demand for baht. The corruption behind the scenes in Thailand is not just my imagination. It's a given accepted on this forum. A lot of very "special" Thais have gotten richer because of all of this foreign capital.

One of the main reasons for the inflow of capital is that it won't earn much most places in the West right now. The West has deliberately driven interest rates to near zero, and the US Fed is toying with the idea of issuing negative interest rate bonds. Bank interest rates suck.

When these things collide, investors look for higher yields and for the past few years that has been Thailand. I contend of course that it's been too much too fast and it's a bubble.

It's hard to get the government and the bankers to put any brakes on it when they are the ones making the big bucks from it. Echos of Wall Street and over exuberance. Echos of 1997. Echos of 2007 and 2009. How many times before we learn?

Also don't forget that countries in the West are deliberately devaluing their currencies to stay competitive in global trade. Even China has too. This is affecting the relative exchange rates. If the recession in Asia and the West begin to seriously affect Thailand's exports, it will have to devalue the baht to stay competitive and to keep industry humming.

There are lots of things that are, and soon can, affect the value of the baht.

[chiangmaikelly]

It has nothing to do with the Thai baht. There is a group of posters here who point out the glass is half full in every post. The baht has gone up and Western currencies have gone down. The baht did not go up because of corruption. How Western expats are going to cope with declining income is the topic. Stop bashing Thailand for a minute and re read the OP.

Well I think the baht did go up partly due to corruption. There has been a massive inflow of foreign capital to Thailand. Every bit of that money has to be converted to baht, creating a demand for baht. The corruption behind the scenes in Thailand is not just my imagination. It's a given accepted on this forum. A lot of very "special" Thais have gotten richer because of all of this foreign capital.

One of the main reasons for the inflow of capital is that it won't earn much most places in the West right now. The West has deliberately driven interest rates to near zero, and the US Fed is toying with the idea of issuing negative interest rate bonds. Bank interest rates suck.

When these things collide, investors look for higher yields and for the past few years that has been Thailand. I contend of course that it's been too much too fast and it's a bubble.

It's hard to get the government and the bankers to put any brakes on it when they are the ones making the big bucks from it. Echos of Wall Street and over exuberance. Echos of 1997. Echos of 2007 and 2009. How many times before we learn?

Also don't forget that countries in the West are deliberately devaluing their currencies to stay competitive in global trade. Even China has too. This is affecting the relative exchange rates. If the recession in Asia and the West begin to seriously affect Thailand's exports, it will have to devalue the baht to stay competitive and to keep industry humming.

There are lots of things that are, and soon can, affect the value of the baht.

So what does your information have to do with Farangs who live in Thailand? From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

[StreetCowboy]

It has nothing to do with the Thai baht. There is a group of posters here who point out the glass is half full in every post. The baht has gone up and Western currencies have gone down. The baht did not go up because of corruption. How Western expats are going to cope with declining income is the topic. Stop bashing Thailand for a minute and re read the OP.

Well I think the baht did go up partly due to corruption. There has been a massive inflow of foreign capital to Thailand. Every bit of that money has to be converted to baht, creating a demand for baht. The corruption behind the scenes in Thailand is not just my imagination. It's a given accepted on this forum. A lot of very "special" Thais have gotten richer because of all of this foreign capital.

One of the main reasons for the inflow of capital is that it won't earn much most places in the West right now. The West has deliberately driven interest rates to near zero, and the US Fed is toying with the idea of issuing negative interest rate bonds. Bank interest rates suck.

When these things collide, investors look for higher yields and for the past few years that has been Thailand. I contend of course that it's been too much too fast and it's a bubble.

It's hard to get the government and the bankers to put any brakes on it when they are the ones making the big bucks from it. Echos of Wall Street and over exuberance. Echos of 1997. Echos of 2007 and 2009. How many times before we learn?

Also don't forget that countries in the West are deliberately devaluing their currencies to stay competitive in global trade. Even China has too. This is affecting the relative exchange rates. If the recession in Asia and the West begin to seriously affect Thailand's exports, it will have to devalue the baht to stay competitive and to keep industry humming.

There are lots of things that are, and soon can, affect the value of the baht.

So what does your information have to do with Farangs who live in Thailand? From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

My impression was that his recommendation was to tighten one's belt for the meanwhile, things will get better soon. Except insofar as it will be accompanied by an economic crash in Thailand, the collapse of China, and, from the links he's posted, isolationism in the United States. Probably also the collapse of world trade, an uprising against bankers and probably white collar workers in general and the end of civilisation as we know it. He hasn't developed his arguments that far, but it seems the logical conclusion.

SC

[NeverSure]

It has nothing to do with the Thai baht. There is a group of posters here who point out the glass is half full in every post. The baht has gone up and Western currencies have gone down. The baht did not go up because of corruption. How Western expats are going to cope with declining income is the topic. Stop bashing Thailand for a minute and re read the OP.

Well I think the baht did go up partly due to corruption. There has been a massive inflow of foreign capital to Thailand. Every bit of that money has to be converted to baht, creating a demand for baht. The corruption behind the scenes in Thailand is not just my imagination. It's a given accepted on this forum. A lot of very "special" Thais have gotten richer because of all of this foreign capital.

One of the main reasons for the inflow of capital is that it won't earn much most places in the West right now. The West has deliberately driven interest rates to near zero, and the US Fed is toying with the idea of issuing negative interest rate bonds. Bank interest rates suck.

When these things collide, investors look for higher yields and for the past few years that has been Thailand. I contend of course that it's been too much too fast and it's a bubble.

It's hard to get the government and the bankers to put any brakes on it when they are the ones making the big bucks from it. Echos of Wall Street and over exuberance. Echos of 1997. Echos of 2007 and 2009. How many times before we learn?

Also don't forget that countries in the West are deliberately devaluing their currencies to stay competitive in global trade. Even China has too. This is affecting the relative exchange rates. If the recession in Asia and the West begin to seriously affect Thailand's exports, it will have to devalue the baht to stay competitive and to keep industry humming.

There are lots of things that are, and soon can, affect the value of the baht.

So what does your information have to do with Farangs who live in Thailand? From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

And my answer, backed by charts, graphs, links and history has been that it won't go that far.

[chiangmaikelly]

It has nothing to do with the Thai baht. There is a group of posters here who point out the glass is half full in every post. The baht has gone up and Western currencies have gone down. The baht did not go up because of corruption. How Western expats are going to cope with declining income is the topic. Stop bashing Thailand for a minute and re read the OP.

Well I think the baht did go up partly due to corruption. There has been a massive inflow of foreign capital to Thailand. Every bit of that money has to be converted to baht, creating a demand for baht. The corruption behind the scenes in Thailand is not just my imagination. It's a given accepted on this forum. A lot of very "special" Thais have gotten richer because of all of this foreign capital.

One of the main reasons for the inflow of capital is that it won't earn much most places in the West right now. The West has deliberately driven interest rates to near zero, and the US Fed is toying with the idea of issuing negative interest rate bonds. Bank interest rates suck.

When these things collide, investors look for higher yields and for the past few years that has been Thailand. I contend of course that it's been too much too fast and it's a bubble.

It's hard to get the government and the bankers to put any brakes on it when they are the ones making the big bucks from it. Echos of Wall Street and over exuberance. Echos of 1997. Echos of 2007 and 2009. How many times before we learn?

Also don't forget that countries in the West are deliberately devaluing their currencies to stay competitive in global trade. Even China has too. This is affecting the relative exchange rates. If the recession in Asia and the West begin to seriously affect Thailand's exports, it will have to devalue the baht to stay competitive and to keep industry humming.

There are lots of things that are, and soon can, affect the value of the baht.

So what does your information have to do with Farangs who live in Thailand? From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

And my answer, backed by charts, graphs, links and history has been that it won't go that far.

You have not read the news about the Pound? There are British expats you know. Edit to ask how far is not that far?

Edited March 6, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[NeverSure]

It has nothing to do with the Thai baht. There is a group of posters here who point out the glass is half full in every post. The baht has gone up and Western currencies have gone down. The baht did not go up because of corruption. How Western expats are going to cope with declining income is the topic. Stop bashing Thailand for a minute and re read the OP.

Well I think the baht did go up partly due to corruption. There has been a massive inflow of foreign capital to Thailand. Every bit of that money has to be converted to baht, creating a demand for baht. The corruption behind the scenes in Thailand is not just my imagination. It's a given accepted on this forum. A lot of very "special" Thais have gotten richer because of all of this foreign capital.

One of the main reasons for the inflow of capital is that it won't earn much most places in the West right now. The West has deliberately driven interest rates to near zero, and the US Fed is toying with the idea of issuing negative interest rate bonds. Bank interest rates suck.

When these things collide, investors look for higher yields and for the past few years that has been Thailand. I contend of course that it's been too much too fast and it's a bubble.

It's hard to get the government and the bankers to put any brakes on it when they are the ones making the big bucks from it. Echos of Wall Street and over exuberance. Echos of 1997. Echos of 2007 and 2009. How many times before we learn?

Also don't forget that countries in the West are deliberately devaluing their currencies to stay competitive in global trade. Even China has too. This is affecting the relative exchange rates. If the recession in Asia and the West begin to seriously affect Thailand's exports, it will have to devalue the baht to stay competitive and to keep industry humming.

There are lots of things that are, and soon can, affect the value of the baht.

So what does your information have to do with Farangs who live in Thailand? From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

My impression was that his recommendation was to tighten one's belt for the meanwhile, things will get better soon. Except insofar as it will be accompanied by an economic crash in Thailand, the collapse of China, and, from the links he's posted, isolationism in the United States. Probably also the collapse of world trade, an uprising against bankers and probably white collar workers in general and the end of civilisation as we know it. He hasn't developed his arguments that far, but it seems the logical conclusion.

SC

You love to put words in my mouth, rather than debate, apparently.

I've been asked why I'd move to Thailand if I don't like it, I've had ad hominem retorts up the ying yang, but I can't get any intelligent debaters who want to post facts backed with links or data.

I'm not saying I'm winning any debate, I'm just saying that no one seems to care about doing any research, or giving me any rebuttal other than smart ass remarks.

I'm outta here. I've made my positions clear, and explained how I arrived at the conclusions. I even responded to the comment about the US having so much oil, which if used would change the condition of the West against the ME and S. America and Africa and other places. That includes Russia and China.

The shape of the global economy isn't so clear when money is manipulated, resources aren't used and countries persist in going into bubbles.

There's no use, and nothing to win here.

[StreetCowboy]

...

So what does your information have to do with Farangs who live in Thailand? From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

My impression was that his recommendation was to tighten one's belt for the meanwhile, things will get better soon. Except insofar as it will be accompanied by an economic crash in Thailand, the collapse of China, and, from the links he's posted, isolationism in the United States. Probably also the collapse of world trade, an uprising against bankers and probably white collar workers in general and the end of civilisation as we know it. He hasn't developed his arguments that far, but it seems the logical conclusion.

SC

You love to put words in my mouth, rather than debate, apparently.

I've been asked why I'd move to Thailand if I don't like it, I've had ad hominem retorts up the ying yang, but I can't get any intelligent debaters who want to post facts backed with links or data.

I'm not saying I'm winning any debate, I'm just saying that no one seems to care about doing any research, or giving me any rebuttal other than smart ass remarks.

I'm outta here. I've made my positions clear, and explained how I arrived at the conclusions. I even responded to the comment about the US having so much oil, which if used would change the condition of the West against the ME and S. America and Africa and other places. That includes Russia and China.

The shape of the global economy isn't so clear when money is manipulated, resources aren't used and countries persist in going into bubbles.

There's no use, and nothing to win here.

So are you saying I've misinterpreted your position?

Sometimes it's not about winning or losing, it's about trying to understand other people's viewpoints.

Am I correct in believing that your view is that the dollar will soon go up relative to the baht? Or not?

Am I correct that you believe the Thai economy will soon collapse into economic recession, which will cause the relative decline in the baht mentioned above?

Am I correct that you believe the US economy will become more self-sufficient, and less reliant on imports generally?

Which, presumably, will result in a strengthening of the dollar, allowing imported goods (i.e. Santa's toys) to be replaced with invisible imports (i.e. tarts in Pattaya)

SC

[NeverSure]

You have not read the news about the Pound? There are British expats you know.

I said I'm outta here but I'll answer this because of course the Pound is vital. Western countries are devaluing their currencies. Both the US and the UK are talking about issuing bonds with negative interest rates to further weaken the values. They are doing this to remain competitive in international trade.

Thailand isn't doing that because its been in a growth spurt and doesn't feel the need. But with its new minimum wage and its internal inflation, it is not long to be the cheap place to manufacture. It is also building itself into a bubble.

All of the Western currencies will rebound against the baht when Thailand has its day of reckoning, and soon.

When is soon? A year, 5 years, 10 years?

Fair enough. SC and I were talking about a 3 - 5 year plan, and that's where I interjected my belief. No one can predict the future in terms of time, but he can see the handwriting on the wall.

[NeverSure]

So are you saying I've misinterpreted your position?

Sometimes it's not about winning or losing, it's about trying to understand other people's viewpoints.

Am I correct in believing that your view is that the dollar will soon go up relative to the baht? Or not?

Am I correct that you believe the Thai economy will soon collapse into economic recession, which will cause the relative decline in the baht mentioned above?

Am I correct that you believe the US economy will become more self-sufficient, and less reliant on imports generally?

Which, presumably, will result in a strengthening of the dollar, allowing imported goods (i.e. Santa's toys) to be replaced with invisible imports (i.e. tarts in Pattaya)

SC

Lordy I want to stop but it's hard. No, you went way beyond what I said, inventing things I didn't say. I know you were just having fun with it but...

I'm just repeating myself. I believe that Asia, and China and Thailand in particular are in a bubble and when it bursts, think 1997 in Thailand.

Yes I think Asia is entering recession, led by China. China is already there in a big way. China has crashed. People on this forum talk about China being the replacement for the West in tourism and investment. I don't see that. Maybe Russia but not China.

The value of the baht? 1997.

No, I have no hope near term that the US will become self sufficient. The enviroterrorists have it shut down. They won't even admit the resources are there in coal, oil, timber, etc. I just posted another link about oil reserves. See, the Government Accounting Office which says the oil is there and asks why we don't use it is part of the Federal Government. But it's only advisory as accounting. The Federal Energy Commission and the White House deny the definition of reserves and deny the use of them. Obama refused to let Canada bring in a pipeline which would have let the US at least buy more oil from Canada instead of the ME.

(Off topic but we could really weaken the ME by telling them to take their oil and shove it, and stop sending them around $700 billion a year to use against us.)

I believe it will take a Great Depression in the US for The People to rise up and want those resources and the jobs that go with them. Wisdom has left the room atm.

No, that's not what I think about the dollar. The dollar would be printed into oblivion if it weren't for every other major player also printing, keeping some balance.

But I keep trying to explain. The capitalist countries have a divide between the government and the private sector. The private sector can thrive while the government destroys itself with deficits. The strength in the West right now is the strength of the private sector. Look at corporate profits and the stock markets as opposed to China, for instance. China can't separate the two and that's its big weakness.

So as an investor I have a lot more confidence in the West than I do Asia. The West has the technology and the drive and the training. Look at shit cars built by China as opposed to the UK or Canada or the US or Japan or N. Korea. SE Asia and China are way behind the curve.

I'll put my money on the West simply because the West has the money resources. Edit. I mean the private sector has the money. Corporations are awash in money. Westerners have money. They aren't spending it either, which is slowing down any recovery.

Edited March 6, 2013 by NeverSure

[StreetCowboy]

Perhaps we could apply our collective wisdom to a specific practical application.

A friend of mine has just won the lottery in Australia; any recommendations?

SC

[Ystradyfodwg]

Dow Jones hits historical/record high yesterday.Good news for the US and Europe?

[thenervoussurgeon]

So are you saying I've misinterpreted your position?

Sometimes it's not about winning or losing, it's about trying to understand other people's viewpoints.

Am I correct in believing that your view is that the dollar will soon go up relative to the baht? Or not?

Am I correct that you believe the Thai economy will soon collapse into economic recession, which will cause the relative decline in the baht mentioned above?

Am I correct that you believe the US economy will become more self-sufficient, and less reliant on imports generally?

Which, presumably, will result in a strengthening of the dollar, allowing imported goods (i.e. Santa's toys) to be replaced with invisible imports (i.e. tarts in Pattaya)

SC

Lordy I want to stop but it's hard. No, you went way beyond what I said, inventing things I didn't say. I know you were just having fun with it but...

I'm just repeating myself. I believe that Asia, and China and Thailand in particular are in a bubble and when it bursts, think 1997 in Thailand.

Yes I think Asia is entering recession, led by China. China is already there in a big way. China has crashed. People on this forum talk about China being the replacement for the West in tourism and investment. I don't see that. Maybe Russia but not China.

The value of the baht? 1997.

No, I have no hope near term that the US will become self sufficient. The enviroterrorists have it shut down. They won't even admit the resources are there in coal, oil, timber, etc. I just posted another link about oil reserves. See, the Government Accounting Office which says the oil is there and asks why we don't use it is part of the Federal Government. But it's only advisory as accounting. The Federal Energy Commission and the White House deny the definition of reserves and deny the use of them. Obama refused to let Canada bring in a pipeline which would have let the US at least buy more oil from Canada instead of the ME.

(Off topic but we could really weaken the ME by telling them to take their oil and shove it, and stop sending them around $700 billion a year to use against us.)

I believe it will take a Great Depression in the US for The People to rise up and want those resources and the jobs that go with them. Wisdom has left the room atm.

No, that's not what I think about the dollar. The dollar would be printed into oblivion if it weren't for every other major player also printing, keeping some balance.

But I keep trying to explain. The capitalist countries have a divide between the government and the private sector. The private sector can thrive while the government destroys itself with deficits. The strength in the West right now is the strength of the private sector. Look at corporate profits and the stock markets as opposed to China, for instance. China can't separate the two and that's its big weakness.

So as an investor I have a lot more confidence in the West than I do Asia. The West has the technology and the drive and the training. Look at shit cars built by China as opposed to the UK or Canada or the US or Japan or N. Korea. SE Asia and China are way behind the curve.

I'll put my money on the West simply because the West has the money resources. Edit. I mean the private sector has the money. Corporations are awash in money. Westerners have money. They aren't spending it either, which is slowing down any recovery.

OK China is in a recession and the US dollar and GBP will rise again. Ya sure. Now for the expats who actually live here a tip on adjusting your budget to the new reality. Forget about go go girls; too expensive. Switch to massage girls and you can get a shower in the morning too for free. Now don't say I never gave you a money saving tip.

I can save you even more ,stay home and post on Thai visa ,cheaper still

[Banzai99]

+1 beautifulthailand99, I don't think people realize the juggernaut that's on it's way from China.

When I was in CM two weeks ago I saw staff members practising Chinese phrases and the boss told me he was getting a menu prepared in Mandarin. The Chinese were everywhere ( as they are entitled to be ) and there will be a vast increase in tourism from that country shortly, especially I predict in Chiang Mai.

I'm like a broken record on this subject, the Chinese are coming, they're looking for bargains, they're looking for investments, they're looking for relaxation, and most worryingly for a lot of Western guys, they're looking for Brides.

Many of them are awash with money and they'll go snapping up the best of the women in a heartbeat. The competition is getting a whole lot hotter, and there's a weird thing on play in Chinese society, Chinese men always marry down. .

Dont even know where to start with that - suffice it to say that I disagree with almost everyhing in that post. Congratulations

Well I just expanded upon the post so that'll give you even more to disagree with.

Same here.

As a guy that has lived in Thailand since 1990, I don't know where this Scottish tourist gets his ideas from, they're certainly not from experience.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Banzai99

[Ministry of Som Tam]

+1 beautifulthailand99, I don't think people realize the juggernaut that's on it's way from China.

When I was in CM two weeks ago I saw staff members practising Chinese phrases and the boss told me he was getting a menu prepared in Mandarin. The Chinese were everywhere ( as they are entitled to be ) and there will be a vast increase in tourism from that country shortly, especially I predict in Chiang Mai.

I'm like a broken record on this subject, the Chinese are coming, they're looking for bargains, they're looking for investments, they're looking for relaxation, and most worryingly for a lot of Western guys, they're looking for Brides.

Many of them are awash with money and they'll go snapping up the best of the women in a heartbeat. The competition is getting a whole lot hotter, and there's a weird thing on play in Chinese society, Chinese men always marry down. .

Dont even know where to start with that - suffice it to say that I disagree with almost everyhing in that post. Congratulations

Well I just expanded upon the post so that'll give you even more to disagree with.

Same here.

As a guy that has lived in Thailand since 1990, I don't know where this Scottish tourist gets his ideas from, they're certainly not from experience.

He's certainly never been to China as the women in Shanghai are absolutely smoking hot and desperate to find a husband,no Chinese would even contemplate some battered old bargirl from Pattaya,Bangkok or Chiang Mai,why would they?

[metisdead]

Posts of a nonsense and trolling nature have been removed as well as the replies.

[PHP87]

Might be time to invest your savings in the BHT to stay even.

[MrWorldwide]

Perhaps we could apply our collective wisdom to a specific practical application.

A friend of mine has just won the lottery in Australia; any recommendations?

SC

I recommend that your friend contact me immediately. I have a Malaysian island I've been looking to offload for couple of years now - I really think it has a lot of potential for someone with vision and the energy to make something happen. Close to Phuket and easy flying distance from Samui - I think your friend will like it

[pokerface1]

Normally countries with a government under threat of being over thrown would have a currency landslide but it has not happened here in Thailand. However the market would have already priced this into the exchange rate over the last few years. It's holding it's own now, just watch what happens once the political arena starts to calm down to a more stable future. Best thing to do is buy heaps of Thai Baht now and hold for the longer term. If your not well heeled and on a fixed income from home then start packing as the shit hasn't hit the fan quite yet.

[OnMyWay2]

The political crisis is temporary but e strengthening of the dollar os something that will be going on for the next couple years. Thailand can try to stabilize their currency but I dont think it's in their interest for the baht to be strong relative to their peers who's currencies are declining,

[Senechal]

The political crisis is temporary but e strengthening of the dollar os something that will be going on for the next couple years. Thailand can try to stabilize their currency but I dont think it's in their interest for the baht to be strong relative to their peers who's currencies are declining,

The ultimate drag on the value of the baht will be the launch of ASEAN which the BoT can't do anything about. The first major hit from ASEAN will be the mass emigration of SME's to the nearest border in search of cheaper labor and more favorable tax regimes.

For the medium term Thailand will still function as an export hub due to infrastructure advantages so the loss of SME's will be mitigated somewhat (assuming Dawei takes a decade or more to get moving) -- but the hit to GDP will still be enormous as export SME's represent the lion's share of Thai GDP.

This puts the medium-term target value of the baht into a "middle zone" though: Too cheap, and Thailand cannot afford to exploit it's currency differential to leverage cheap ASEAN labor. Too pricey and Thailand's major (automotive, etc) exporters wither and die.

My best guess is on high/mid 30's for the medium term. After that depends largely on what happens in China and Japan.

Of course -- if the US goes "taper off" (again), then none of the above matters and it's off to the races again. And there's the rub: All of this thinking about regional economics doesn't really matter at all if the US starts up the QE engine again. So we're all just picking at straws.

[Brickbat]

A global reset is about to take place. And the baht will plummet. The economy here is debt ridden by Thais who have no idea about simple economics. And borrowed to the hilt. 

The rich are repatriating their loot out. A high baht is great for that.

[SheungWan]

8 hours ago, Brickbat said:

A global reset is about to take place. And the baht will plummet. The economy here is debt ridden by Thais who have no idea about simple economics. And borrowed to the hilt. 

The rich are repatriating their loot out. A high baht is great for that.

Doubtful, but thanks for trying to cheer us up.

Edited June 3, 2019 by SheungWan

[jayceenik]

For what it's worth here is what Thais have to say about this high THB ...

My Isaan TGF is most interested in this unwelcome THB rise against the Euro since she'll inherit my Euro savings in SIN when I die and we live with a Euro pension I get from Belgium so she is checking daily the Exchange rates on the Internet.

Not only farangs are complaining about this skyrocketing THB, Thais do to.

She says that Thais are now 50/50 predicting a strong THB down move.

She says many Thais are mad about this high THB because of export slowdowns.

[Brickbat]

3 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Doubtful, but thanks for trying to cheer us up.

Wrong on both counts. 

[bkk6060]

On 6/4/2019 at 8:41 AM, jayceenik said:

 

Not only farangs are complaining about this skyrocketing THB, Thais do to.

She says that Thais are now 50/50 predicting a strong THB down move.

She says many Thais are mad about this high THB because of export slowdowns.

Haha.

Oh really?

They also describe to you their diversified portfolios?

I bet 98 percent of the Thais would have no idea what you are talking about. Mention export slowdown make it 99 percent.

Please, stop kidding yourself and us.

Edited June 7, 2019 by bkk6060

[Berkshire]

On 6/3/2019 at 9:39 PM, Brickbat said:

A global reset is about to take place. And the baht will plummet. The economy here is debt ridden by Thais who have no idea about simple economics. And borrowed to the hilt. 

The rich are repatriating their loot out. A high baht is great for that.

555555.....yeah right.  Disgruntled expats have been predicting this for years.  And nothing ever changes.  Because it's less about what's going on in Thailand and more about what's going on back in your home countries.  When the USD weakens against the THB, I look to America and what's happening over there. 

[Percy P]

On 2/21/2013 at 3:49 PM, MJCM said:

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

Correct but. how will Thailand hold its head above the water, it only the amount of tourist coming here there keeping it afloat thus maintaining the strength of the Baht and the weakness of western currencies. 

[mvsaraburi]

A new nadir (certainly in last 20 years) today of 1 pound at 39.05. 

Was getting about 43 in November 2018.. 10% wiped off in 8 months.

Watch it crash even more when arch-brexitard Boris de Pfeffel Muppet wins the PM vote.