The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[wamberal]

Marc Faber has spent the last 30 years predicting ruin for the world economy. This is a really clever position to take. When he is right, the markets tumble, and people think how clever he is. All the rest of the time, when the markets go up, people forget about him.

He is an idiot. Anybody who relies on his advice is an idiot.

[Naam]

everything that goes up must come down.

the rest of the world was

on the up and hit the recession, are you really that uneducated when it

comes to economics to think Asia will avoid recession in the future and

will stay on top?

china is already slowing down in growth, india

has riots over inflation and a number of other issues, japan is about

to collapse(currency)

you really think thailand economy is that strong to sustain the growth on its own?

"If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, 1907 NYC and 2007 Asia." Jim Rogers.

Marc Farber lives in Chiang Mai. So no not me. I 'm a nobody. Check with Rogers and Farber for your financial questions. Last time I checked they both said Thailand was still a good investment. Of course it is hard to question such wisdom as, "everything that goes up must come down." Got that from the London School of Economics eh?

...farber has not got a financial prediction right in years ,,check out his gold predictions ...he is a bigger waffler than you!!!! And that is saying something....currency wars have been predicted for years now and it looks like Thailand just does not get it yet!!!i was here when the Asian tiger crap was all the rage and I was also here when the crap hit the fan ,,,Thais are ruled by nepotistic fools who at first sign of trouble will bring the baht tumbling....this is my experience seen by my own eyes..what goes up comes down and my old man called it swings and roundabouts

I defy you to find one example let alone a trend of me waffling. So put your money where your mouth is and quote a trend or even one example where I have waffled. I challenge you. Or go along with the rest of the old folks quoting your homespun proverbs that have nothing to do with economics like, "what goes up must come down."

let me add from the sidelines that Faber and Rogers are nowadays indeed showmen who hardly got it right during the last few years. big talk such as "invest in agricultural land [Faber]" or "invest in China [Rogers]" which does not apply to investors with a net worth of less than $25 million. the same goes for both their various advices on shares or commodity options.

ridiculous are the usual references to both gentlemen, e.g. "the renowned investor who, together with George Soros, made $600 million ago in 1993 (20 years ago!) or "the famous investor who predicted correctly yada yada yakety-yak the crisis..."

[riclag]

Thai tourism will thrive as long as sex is cheap and available. Period.

Will it be the tourists they want? Nope.

Sad to be that way, but I don't think the baht at 20 would change that.

Yes , A fact of life."Up to You" Tam Jai Kuen

[Naam]

Marc Faber has spent the last 30 years predicting ruin for the world economy. This is a really clever position to take. When he is right, the markets tumble, and people think how clever he is. All the rest of the time, when the markets go up, people forget about him.

He is an idiot. Anybody who relies on his advice is an idiot.

i wouldn't call him an idiot. after all he speaks a much better Swiss-English than i do

[chiangmaikelly]

Marc Faber has spent the last 30 years predicting ruin for the world economy. This is a really clever position to take. When he is right, the markets tumble, and people think how clever he is. All the rest of the time, when the markets go up, people forget about him.

He is an idiot. Anybody who relies on his advice is an idiot.

Biggs and Faber’s advice nine months ago proved profitable

as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index surged 67 percent in the

biggest rally since the 1930s. They saw a buying opportunity as

investors speculating the financial crisis would cause a

depression drove stock valuations to the cheapest level since

1986. Now, Biggs, 77, and Faber, 63, see gains as the economic

recovery accelerates and investors shift money from Treasuries.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZX4d4wysC4o

[MrWorldwide]

There are many "retired" economists here who enjoy ranting their theories and proving why they are smarter than the rest and trying to predict the future I suspect many people here just want to have enough for their daily living. No point running them down. When it comes to $$$ the simplest theory work Save hard, spend wisely and be content. Happiest way to be a human being

I can predict the future will contain surprises of all kinds, particularly for those poor saps who have retired in Thailand on fixed incomes in currencies other than the Thai baht.

As for you, I hope nothing unexpected happens in your life, but you know, the unexpected always happens.

Right, so I cash in my Super early next year, get that lump sum and immediately convert it ALL to THB. Wow - glad you came along - that has simplified my financial planning immensely !

[David48]

Right, so I cash in my Super early next year, get that lump sum and immediately convert it ALL to THB. Wow - glad you came along - that has simplified my financial planning immensely !

Actually ... what you suggest could be partially correct.

And here is why ...

Currently the Aussie dollar is within a 10% all time high against the Thai Baht.

No-one knows if it (the aussie) continue to appreciate or not.

If you plan to spend a considerable time in Thailand for the foreseeable future would it not make sense to have a proportion of your money in the denomination in which the expenses will arrive?

Super, for me is a long time away, but this means that I have time to plan for my future.

So, I'm converting some Aussie currency while the exchange rate remains above 30 Baht to the Dollar and investing in moderate growth, income producing investments.

Risks are inherent in almost all investments. Usually risk = return. Usually, but not always.

If the return on my investment outpaces inflation and the investment continues to pay a dividend/rent/return ... then I have achieved my investment goals.

[David48]

From above ...

Learn the rule of 72 and the effect that compound interest can have.

Compound interest is an amazing thing, and the Rule of 72 is a simple way to quickly estimate how long it will take your investment to double. The only piece of information you need for this calculation is the annual rate of return. While most investments don’t have a fixed rate of return over a long period of time, you can use an average estimate to get a pretty good idea.

How to Use the Rule of 72

To estimate how long it takes for your money to double, simply divide 72 by the interest rate. The result is how many years it will take for your money to double at that rate. For example, let’s assume you can earn a 6% rate of return. How long will it take $1,000 to grow into $2,000?

72 / 6 percent = 12 years

In this example, if you invested $1,000 into an account that earned a flat 6% annual rate of return, after 12 years, your investment would be worth around $2,000. To save a little time, here are some interest rates and the corresponding amount of time to double:

1% - 72 years
2% - 36 years
3% - 24 years
4% - 18 years
5% - 14 years
6% - 12 years
7% - 10.3 years
8% - 9.0 years
9% - 8.0 years
10% - 7.2 years
11% - 6.5 years
12% - 6.0 years

More here

But remember that inflation then eats into your savings.

So, it's the low risk combined with with a level of return above inflation that should be your first consideration.

[rekkie]

As the currency moves up it is less interesting to buy.

The country undeniably is going very well with big inward investment and lots of peeps coming here

As the currency gets less interesting these two will suffer.

The slow down will start shortly but usually there is a snap upwards before the bears get to work

[meatboy]

From above ...

Learn the rule of 72 and the effect that compound interest can have.

Compound interest is an amazing thing, and the Rule of 72 is a simple way to quickly estimate how long it will take your investment to double. The only piece of information you need for this calculation is the annual rate of return. While most investments don’t have a fixed rate of return over a long period of time, you can use an average estimate to get a pretty good idea.

How to Use the Rule of 72

To estimate how long it takes for your money to double, simply divide 72 by the interest rate. The result is how many years it will take for your money to double at that rate. For example, let’s assume you can earn a 6% rate of return. How long will it take $1,000 to grow into $2,000?

72 / 6 percent = 12 years

In this example, if you invested $1,000 into an account that earned a flat 6% annual rate of return, after 12 years, your investment would be worth around $2,000. To save a little time, here are some interest rates and the corresponding amount of time to double:

1% - 72 years

2% - 36 years

3% - 24 years

4% - 18 years

5% - 14 years

6% - 12 years

7% - 10.3 years

8% - 9.0 years

9% - 8.0 years

10% - 7.2 years

11% - 6.5 years

12% - 6.0 years

More here

But remember that inflation then eats into your savings.

So, it's the low risk combined with with a level of return above inflation that should be your first consideration.

sorry dai you havnt taken into account when the buffalo is sick.

[JDGRUEN]

If OP's scenario played out - not only would expats on a fixed income from their own home country suffer but for American expats and likely those of other major countries, nflation in their home country would make living back there just about as economically uncomfortable as living in Thailand. It would seem the best hedge bet for expats is to find a way to earn Thai Bhat here in Thailand and sock it away for this coming rainy day - even if it is not a great deal of money. However, as most know - easier said than done.

[taninthai]

The post office in the uk is giving 42.8 to £ today expect less than 42 tommorrow

[thenervoussurgeon]

I have been reading now for the last few days what you very knowledgable gentelmen have been discussing ,is it safe to assume from all the replys that

A/ the baht will rise or

B/the baht will fall?

i await the reply with trepidation .

[chiangmaikelly]

I have been reading now for the last few days what you very knowledgable gentelmen have been discussing ,is it safe to assume from all the replys that

A/ the baht will rise or

B/the baht will fall?

i await the reply with trepidation .

How much are you willing to pay for this information?

[geriatrickid]

From above ...

Learn the rule of 72 and the effect that compound interest can have.

Compound interest is an amazing thing, and the Rule of 72 is a simple way to quickly estimate how long it will take your investment to double. The only piece of information you need for this calculation is the annual rate of return. While most investments don’t have a fixed rate of return over a long period of time, you can use an average estimate to get a pretty good idea.

How to Use the Rule of 72

To estimate how long it takes for your money to double, simply divide 72 by the interest rate. The result is how many years it will take for your money to double at that rate. For example, let’s assume you can earn a 6% rate of return. How long will it take $1,000 to grow into $2,000?

72 / 6 percent = 12 years

In this example, if you invested $1,000 into an account that earned a flat 6% annual rate of return, after 12 years, your investment would be worth around $2,000. To save a little time, here are some interest rates and the corresponding amount of time to double:

1% - 72 years

2% - 36 years

3% - 24 years

4% - 18 years

5% - 14 years

6% - 12 years

7% - 10.3 years

8% - 9.0 years

9% - 8.0 years

10% - 7.2 years

11% - 6.5 years

12% - 6.0 years

More here

But remember that inflation then eats into your savings.

So, it's the low risk combined with with a level of return above inflation that should be your first consideration.

And what of tax?

[Sandman77]

So and how we must live in Thailand when money value goes down 50 procent?

[David48]

From above ...

Learn the rule of 72 and the effect that compound interest can have.

But remember that inflation then eats into your savings.

So, it's the low risk combined with with a level of return above inflation that should be your first consideration.

And what of tax?

Good Point but ...

Everyone's tax rate is different depending on their personal circumstances. Some submit tax returns in Thailand, some are forced to pay the standard 10% witholding tax and some ... no tax at all.

For some their investments are outside of Thailand entirely.

[MrWorldwide]

So and how we must live in Thailand when money value goes down 50 procent?

1. Get a job in Thailand

2. Vote with your feet and go elsewhere

3. Accept a lower standard of living and start growing your own food

There IS a fourth option, but I suspect that some folk find that option a little bleak. In its own way, Option 4 requires as much commitment as any of the above : you just dont have to maintain it for the long term.

Edited February 23, 2013 by MrWorldwide

[meatboy]

I have been reading now for the last few days what you very knowledgable gentelmen have been discussing ,is it safe to assume from all the replys that

A/ the baht will rise or

B/the baht will fall?

i await the reply with trepidation .

are you a brain surgeon by any chance

[Hedghog]

Those that can afford to stay,will stay.

Those that can't can jump ship,or jump balcony.

[harryfrompattaya]

Those that can afford to stay,will stay.

Those that can't can jump ship,or jump balcony.

Farangs who have wonderful Thai wives or GF can stay as long as their wonderful mates sells food from a food carts 12 hours a day 7 days a week

My wife told be no way she will not 84 hours a week only 60 hours a week what she has been doing for the last 9 years,

So get yourself a working wife and you will have no problem

[Phronesis]

"Where can I get 7%????

No ones giving that these days.. taking maybe... but giving.. no way"

You can get 10% for a 1 year deposit in Vietnam

Any at call $USD account in Cambodia. Micro finance funds such as World Vision pay 10-11 percent.

[thenervoussurgeon]

I have been reading now for the last few days what you very knowledgable gentelmen have been discussing ,is it safe to assume from all the replys that

A/ the baht will rise or

B/the baht will fall?

i await the reply with trepidation .

are you a brain surgeon by any chance

Why,do you need yours transplanted?

[Hedghog]

harryfrompattaya.

I don't need a working life,or a working lady,to stay.

[Stradavarius37]

With the economics brainpower on display in this thread - I am sure Thailand is in good hands....

[Hermeric]

AAQQQQAQQQQQQQQQAA

[NoshowJones]

At the moment (hoping for an increase of income soon) if the Thai Baht augments in value by another 12% against my currency I will no longer have the income required for my visa extensions. I guess many people are in the same situation, wondering about options. I may decide to be dishonest.

The only way to compete with any authority is to be as dishonest and crooked as they are, I am referring mainly to the British government here, although there is dishonesty everywhere. You know the old saying "if you can't beat them join them" but not against the ordinary decent people of any country of which there are plenty.

[MrWorldwide]

With the economics brainpower on display in this thread - I am sure Thailand is in good hands....

OK - I'll bite - which of the current TV board members is a member of the Thai government ? Good to know I'm mixing with the elite.

[NoshowJones]

One the other hands the export industries in Europe see big chance in ASEAN!

Most of pensions in my homecountry go up nearly 3 procent every year !

Everything holds in balance I need 30 procent more money because the value is lower but my pension goes up around same! Within last 8 years!

Who is the winner of a low exchange rate I don't know!?

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

So the UK is not the only country who are robbing their old folk of the annual state pension increases every year of which they are entitled to, and paid into all their working life.

[NoshowJones]

MJCM....please change your Avartar...I was reading these posts and trying to remove the insect on the screen for at least 2 mins, before i realised

Yes, I was trying to kill it until I realised it wasn't real.