Doubts Over B R N Chief's Control Of South Rebels: Thai Analysis

[webfact]

ANALYSIS
Doubts over BRN chief's control of South rebels
Don Pathan
The Nation, Agencies


National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Pattanathabutr, left, shakes hands with Malaysia-based Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) chief Hassan Thoyib after exchanging signed documents, as Malaysia

Yingluck won't rule out role for Thaksin in Malaysia-brokered talks; Najib says negotiations to be held in Kuala Lumpur in two weeks

BANGKOK: -- Don't expect yesterday's agreement between the self-proclaimed leader of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), Hassan Thoyib, and National Security Council (NSC) chief Paradorn Pattanathabutr to have any impact on the insurgency and the violence in the deep South, because the BRN is too factionalised.

Sources in other separatist movements, including BRN factions not affiliated with Hassan, as well as Thai and Malaysian security officials, said Hassan does not have any major influence with the militants on the ground.

These sources said they are aware of many other separatist leaders whose credentials are considered much better than Hassan's because they have demonstrated they have solid command and control on the ground.

However, they will not come to the negotiating table because the Thai government refuses to grant them immunity, the sources said.

Thailand can't be reaching out one hand for peace while at the same time holding an arrest warrant in another hand, they said.

Since these leaders refuse to come to the table, Thailand had to settle for someone who was available - and that someone was Hassan, Thai and Malaysian officials said.

Tawil Pliensri, a former secretary-general of the NSC, doubted the government was dealing with the right person. As there were several groups and factions involved in the violence in the South, betting on one person was too risky, he said.

Indeed, Thai authorities have been dealing with several groups, and upgrading any specific group would not be the right way, he said. "I don't think the pact [with BRN] will end all problems," he said.

Betting on Hassan was a leap of faith, and it is hoped that Hassan can convince other separatist leaders to join the peace process, which Kuala Lumpur has been asked to facilitate.

"God willing, we'll do our best to solve the problem. We will tell our people to work together," Hassan said after a brief signing ceremony with NSC chief Paradorn.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said the peace talks would take place in Kuala Lumpur in two weeks. He regarded the signing as "merely the starting point of a long process" because many issues have to be resolved, but added that it was a "solid demonstration of the common resolve to find and establish an enduring peace in southern Thailand".

The peace pact was signed in Malaysia yesterday shortly before the arrival of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was making an official visit.

Yingluck said Thailand "wished to see a lasting solution in the southern border provinces", where the nine-year revolt by a number of shadowy groups has claimed more than 5,500 lives.

"We need to move forward as soon as possible," she told a news conference after a meeting with Najib in the Malaysian government headquarters of Putrajaya.

Thailand had taken up a similar approach from 2006 to last year under the so-called Geneva Process, under which a European NGO was to mediate talks between the NSC and one of the three factions of the Patani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo).

But Prime Minister Yingluck, who did not rule out the role of her elder brother Thaksin in taking part in peace talks, ditched the Geneva Process and gave the mandate to facilitate to Malaysia.

In a statement, Pulo yesterday expressed support for the Malaysia-brokered talks between Thailand and the BRN.

Within Pulo there are at least three known leaders - Samsudine Khan, Noor Abdulrahman and Kasturi Mahkota.

It was not clear if Hassan has any pending charges against him. His claim to fame is the fact that he was a personal assistant to the late Haji Amin Toemeena, the late brother of Den Toemeena, a former Pattani MP under the Wadah Faction, which is affiliated with the ruling Pheu Thai Party.

Thai and Malaysian official sources said Bangkok really wanted Sapae-ing Basor, the former principle of Thamvithya Mulniti Islamic school in Yala, to come to the table with Paradorn.

Sapae-ing is the only exiled leader who is a household name in Thailand's Malay-speaking South.

Thai police accuse him of being a major separatist leader of BRN, but sources in the movement see him as a spiritual leader of not just the militants on the ground but of all Muslims in Thailand's three southernmost provinces.

In this respect, Sapae-ing could serve as the much-needed link between the insurgents, the exiled separatist leaders and the Malay Muslim residents of the deep South. But because he is a spiritual leader, Sapae-ing will not permit himself to be exploited for political gain. "Spiritual leaders don't compromise," said one of his closest associates.

Exiled separatist leaders said BRN is not the only group with militants on the ground. One leader said at least three of the 16 militants killed at the recent shoot-out in Bacho, Narathiwat, were affiliated with Pulo.

There is also the question of Malaysia's role in this peace process. Hardliners in the Thai government and the Thai Army, as well as separatist leaders, said Malaysia is not an honest broker, but a stakeholder. The hardliners say they would rather deal directly with the separatist leaders, collectively or individually.


-- The Nation 2013-03-01

[notmyself]

Looking good so far

[Buchholz]

Doubts over BRN chief's control of South rebels

Tawil Pliensri, a former Secretary-General of the NSC, doubted the government was dealing with the right person.

Yingluck won't rule out role for Thaksin in Malaysia-brokered talks

.

Not surprised in the least that Thaksin (ver. 1.0) could become involved in Thaksin (ver. 4.0)'s efforts in the South.

Just hope that this doesn't turn out to be the same farcical nonsense that Thaksin (ver. 2.0) tried to pull off before failing miserably with their ruse five years ago.

Southern Insurgents Announce Ceasefire

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/200628-southern-insurgents-announce-ceasefire/

That Police Lieutenant-Colonel Thaksin's avowed brother, Police Lieutenant-General Paradorn, is heading up this latest move is cause for scrutiny.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/589636-ties-with-thaksin-not-behind-rise-to-top-of-national-security-counci-paradorn/?view=findpost&p=5733960

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/592948-slowly-surely-the-shinawatra-dynasty-tightens-its-grip/?view=findpost&p=5795350

,

[Pimay1]

"Spiritual leaders don't compromise,"

We've noticed.

[Buchholz]

Don't expect yesterday's agreement between the self-proclaimed leader of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), Hassan Thoyib, and National Security Council (NSC) chief Paradorn Pattanathabutr to have any impact on the insurgency and the violence in the deep South

.

for example....

Six wounded in Narathiwat fresh market bombing

NARATHIWAT, March 1 -- One soldier and five residents were wounded in motorcycle bombing in Narathiwat, just one day after the government signed a breakthrough accord with one of several Muslim insurgent groups, agreeing to hold talks to ease nearly a decade of violence in Thailand's southern provinces.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/622643-thailand-live-friday-1-mar-2013/page-2#entry6160680

[Mosha]

Don't expect yesterday's agreement between the self-proclaimed leader of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), Hassan Thoyib, and National Security Council (NSC) chief Paradorn Pattanathabutr to have any impact on the insurgency and the violence in the deep South

.

for example....

Six wounded in Narathiwat fresh market bombing

NARATHIWAT, March 1 -- One soldier and five residents were wounded in motorcycle bombing in Narathiwat, just one day after the government signed a breakthrough accord with one of several Muslim insurgent groups, agreeing to hold talks to ease nearly a decade of violence in Thailand's southern provinces.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/622643-thailand-live-friday-1-mar-2013/page-2#entry6160680

I guess at least one group did not approve then.

[BigC]

People who do not wish to be thai should be treated as illegal immigrants and a threat to the nation

[Mosha]

People who do not wish to be thai should be treated as illegal immigrants and a threat to the nation

In this instance the Thais are the immigrants. The Malay inhabitants, are indigenous people of that part of Thailand.

[Buchholz]

Don't expect yesterday's agreement between the self-proclaimed leader of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), Hassan Thoyib, and National Security Council (NSC) chief Paradorn Pattanathabutr to have any impact on the insurgency and the violence in the deep South

.

for example....

Six wounded in Narathiwat fresh market bombing

NARATHIWAT, March 1 -- One soldier and five residents were wounded in motorcycle bombing in Narathiwat, just one day after the government signed a breakthrough accord with one of several Muslim insurgent groups, agreeing to hold talks to ease nearly a decade of violence in Thailand's southern provinces.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/622643-thailand-live-friday-1-mar-2013/page-2#entry6160680

.

to go along with this morning's bombing example is another bombing for the afternoon...

A 20 kilogram bomb inside a pick-up truck exploded at 12:06pm today in Narathiwat. A retail store, shophouses, and vehicles on the street were damaged, but no fatalities are reported yet.

.

Edited March 1, 2013 by Buchholz

[Buchholz]

.

Info on the location of the last bombing sends a message...

Bomb in pickup explodes opposite Narathiwat police station; no casualties reported /MCOT

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/622643-thailand-live-friday-1-mar-2013/page-2#entry6161272

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[Meetoo]

And the point of these peace / table talks are to bring peace of course and no more killings at all by making agreements with these so called many group of insurgents, that if they come up front and confess they will go into a rehabilitation center to become normal citizens and will be exempt of all and any charges against them for killing innocent people and children by the 100'ds ...??? Logic please ?? Sorry I am blonde today .. well as usual !..... Hell this is really unbelievable !!! And to top it all Takshit has a hand and word in this ... OMG!! Please is there any sanity left in the world anywhere ///

Sorry meant Takshin ..that T is like a magnet on my typing fingers

Edited March 1, 2013 by Meetoo

[rubl]

But Prime Minister Yingluck, who did not rule out the role of her elderbrother Thaksin in taking part in peace talks, ditched the Geneva Process and gave the mandate to facilitate to Malaysia.

Subtitle:

real PM of Thailand sailing close to the (legally permissable) edge and in danger of falling off

[jbrain]

People who do not wish to be thai should be treated as illegal immigrants and a threat to the nation

In this instance the Thais are the immigrants. The Malay inhabitants, are indigenous people of that part of Thailand.

I think you stated it correctly THAT PART OF THAILAND.