Latest Developments on the Election Front

[jdinasia]

No surprise there ... They've said they won't quit until the PM resigns ... For the PM to insist on them topping before a debate would be like them saying "we'll only debate him after he resigns"

[Jai Dee]

Thai Rak Thai files election complaint against three senators

The Thai Rak Thai Party Friday filed an election complaint against three senators who spoke at an anti-government rally.

Lawyer Prasop Budsarakham said Chirmsak Pinthong, Manoonkrit Roopkachorn and Pichet Pattanachote had slandered Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra when they took the stage on Tuesday to say Thaksin had destroyed the country's democratic system and interfered in the Senate.

"We consider that their words were untrue, so we had to send a letter to the chairman of the Election Commission," Prasop said

The party's legal staff also took some evidence to EC chairman Vasana Puemlarp.

Source: The Nation - 18 Mar 2006

[boppia]

Why won't the PM address the issues publicly to solve the problem? The issues are real as the country is in a serious political mess at the moment? Shouldn't a leader listen to the people?

My wife and all her poor surin friends are 'Thailand's elite' I guess. The coalition against the PM is not a coalition of wealthy people. Get out and meet them. Try visiting the protests if you live in Bangkok. Lots of working poor are against Thaksin. They can't take everyday off to go to the protests. And not everyone can afford to pay for transport to go to Sanam Luang everyday.

If Thaksin cares about the Thai people why did he call an election before the Songkran festival? He doesn't want the working poor to return to the countryside to talk to their relatives and village members. He knows what they will tell them. They will tell the the truth.

Poor Esarn people with Primary School Educations = Thailand's Elite?

[Jai Dee]

Some photographs of recent events from The Nation's archive:

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra greets farmers during yesterday’s visit with his son Panthongtae to Ayutthaya, where his supporters rallied in the Wang Noi area of Phaholyothin Road.

Hats for ‘the opposition’, ‘the PAD’ and ‘the government’ are placed on the table at yesterday’s meeting for representatives from the three groups to discuss the format of a debate organised by the Open Forum for Democracy Foundation. No government representatives showed up.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra talks to a girl at an exhibition for the One District, One Dream School’ project at the Thailand Cultural Centre yesterday. Thaksin said the project has provided rural children with better educational opportunities.

[boppia]

Thaksin is running around like a madman now. He wants to be everyones friend. his face looks very worn, extremely worn. He knows that if he fails he and his family are going have to look behind them 24/7 or move abroad.

All thaksin has to do is open the books and explain. It's simple. Why can't he do it? Answer: Because he is guilty of everything he is accused of.

[bulmercke]

[sriracha john]

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra greets farmers during yesterday’s visit with his son Panthongtae to Ayutthaya, where his supporters rallied in the Wang Noi area of Phaholyothin Road.

Thank you for the pic, Jai Dee.

There is an important issue that has the missus absolutely livid about these Thaksin rallies and it's evident in your posted photo.

The issue is that the flags that are being handed by Thaksin staff to attendees of Thaksin's rally.

Particularly, the phrase ทรงพระเจริญ that is inscribed on many of the flags, which is more evident in this photo:

This phrase translates as "Long Live"... and has always been exclusively used to refer to His Majesty the King and members of the Royal Family.

His self-importance has become a bitter pill to swallow for many, many Thais who refuse to swallow it... eg http://www.thainewyork.com/

I'm told that historically in the past, the punishment for such thievery of Royal terms and phrases

was beheading, not only for the offender, but also for next seven generations of the offender.

(of course I'm not advocating that, but it gives an indication of the level of affront that he has given to many Thais).

Edited March 18, 2006 by sriracha john

[boppia]

At the Sanam Luang protests there were flags and hats available but you had to got get them yourself. There was face painting for free too. You could donate money to tthe rally if you wanted. If you follow ASTV you'll notice that they publicly announce donations throughout the day.

I recommend anyone in Bangkok or in the nearby provinces to check out the protests for yourself. They people at them are paid to go there as many TRT people are telling people in the countryside. The people there come from diverse backgrounds. There are many different groups expressing their view of Thailand's problems there. You won't feel in danger there. Most Thai people feel that the protesters are in harms way but that's not the case. You have to go to know what is really going on. If you don't have cable ASTv you can buy VCDs there of the protests. If you let you Thais friends see them I am sure they will think differently about Thaksin. The VCDs are sold by the day of the protests. you can get two VCDs for 50 baht. That would be one day. They only cover about two hours of that day. If you like Thai country music you'll find a lot of musicians have played over the course of the protests including Pongsit Kumpee.

Don't believe what you read in the Thai papers and regualr Thai TV alone as the TRT has control over the media.

[lukamar]

Thai PM defiant as protests rage in Bangkok

17-03-2006 / 18:24

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra told cheering countryside supporters that he would not surrender to "mob rule" as protests continued to rage in the capital Bangkok.

Numbers swelled to about 20,000 late Friday outside Thaksin's office in Government House, where thousands of protesters have laid siege for the past four days, witnesses said.

Earlier, some 1,000 demonstrators outside the Singapore embassy demanded that the city-state cancel the controversial sale of Shin Corp, the telecoms empire that Thaksin founded, to its investment firm Temasek.

Cheers erupted as they torched effigies of a black Singapore Airlines jet and a two-metre-tall Merlion -- the mythical symbol of the city-state -- which were both painted with swastikas.

"Who are you to control our national assets?" and "Where is Singapore government's morality?" read some of the banners, referring to anger over the 1.9 billion dollar tax-free sale by Thaksin's family.

Posters of Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his wife, Temasek chief Ho Ching, defaced with red forked tongues and the slogan "Criminal Singapore - get out" were fixed to barricades outside the mission.

Despite being cleared of any wrongdoing, the Shin Corp sale ignited a simmering anti-government movement and triggered weeks of mass rallies.

But despite the demonstrations and doubts that April 2 snap elections he called to defuse the crisis could proceed, Thaksin went on the campaign trail to western Kanchanaburi province where tens of thousands turned out to see him.

After suggesting this week that he was considering standing aside temporarily, he insisted he would not budge and that mob politics was a thing of the past.

"It's not right to ask me to give in to unruly people," he said in Kanchanaburi, lambasting his critics as "daily liars" who "take to the streets whenever they want".

"April 2 is a very special day when people will make their decision on whether to allow mob rule to supersede the rule of law, or whether to comply with democratic rule," he said.

Rival protests staged Friday highlighted the growing divide between those in Thailand's rural provinces who staunchly support Thaksin, and the middle-class urban elites which accuse him of corruption and abuse of power.

Some 300 members of the Association of Businessmen for Democracy staged a protest convoy from a city park to Government House, to demand he stand down and end the deadlock that is damaging the economy and investor confidence.

"I just feel that he should go," said tax consultant Chuangchai Norchoovech as he leaned on the door of his Volvo sedan, one of 50 vehicles including four-wheel drives and luxury models.

"The longer he drags on, the more the country will get hurt," he said, before the convoy set off for Government House where they added to the huge crowds that have maintained a vigil there this week.

Meanwhile, up to 10,000 farmers who had travelled from the countryside on tractors and farm trucks in a "Caravan of the Poor" to support the embattled premier, marched the final leg into the city on foot.

"Thaksin is hard-working, he has done a lot for our country and everything was going well," said one of their leaders, Kasem Namchai.

"But suddenly a group of people are doing something outside the law to oust him, so we think that someone should offer him support."

The farmers, dressed in ragged clothes and including many frail and elderly, will now camp out at a city park, and have been urged not to confront the pro-Thaksin demonstrators based at locations elsewhere in the sprawling city.

©AFP Jordan data Communications.

[Crushdepth]

Even if the election does somehow go ahead, Khun Boxhead is going to find it pretty difficult to claim a mandate this time. The whole election business is a farce anyway, dissolving parliament was just another attempt to stifle public debate about some of Thaksin's abuses of power - notably amending the law to legitimise his deal with Singapore.

The world is sick of despots. It's time to go, Thaksin.

[Siripon]

I think I know why - Demcrats haven't got enough money to pay "Isanese" for attending. For all love they have for Taksin they won't go anywhere unless fully paid and fed.

You have a point about PAD attracting people like Snoh, but that's the uniqueness of this movement - people who normally woldn't have lunch together are united for the common purpose - oust Taksin. Their strength lies in having broad coalition.

This is exactly the attitude that drives those "Isanese" (and northerners) to Thaksin - this idiotic believe that the only reason for them to like Thaksin is because he pays them. And that is why the PAD has no hope whatsoever to ever attract a large following upcountry. TRT is the only party in those areas of Thailand that is present in the villages on a constant base, the have a very strong grass roots organisation, they listen to the villagers, and don't treat them as dumb monkeys.

And when it comes down to money - many very rich families do support the Democrats. Funny that the Democrats appear to have enough money to hold rallies down south every day.

And i don't find anything "unique" in the PAD attracting the worst scum of Thai politics. That is their main weakness - getting into bed with fascists and mafia lords because they have no future vision for Thailand other then getting rid of Thaksin. Where is the "broad coalition"? If you attend both the PAD and the TRT rallies the most obvious thing is the class division between the audiences:

PAD mainly urban middle class and southerners, TRT mainly urban poor and rural northerners and Isaarn folks.

The PAD use and abuse the hopes of the people no different from Thaksin's TRT. And both sides will only further the rifts in Thai society.

The strong grass roots system you write of is only the system of canvassers, village headmen, Kamnan that has existed for years. They will switch their loyalty according to the prevailing political climate, Issan was The New Inspiration Party 10 years ago, Nakhon Ratchasima was Chart Pattana, Thaksin bought them up and\or threatened them to merge with TRT.

If he is gone then we can expect to see TRT disintegrate, Sudatat's Bangkok faction doesn't like Newin's NE faction, Somsak's Lower North faction are ambitious in their own right.

Thaksin treats his own MPs like dumb monkeys, to quote your expression, no dissent, no tabling of independent motions, all vote for Suriya in the censure debate before hearing the evidence.

What Thaksin tried with his populist policies was to win the rural majority vote and at the same time wipe out the influence of local fiefdoms, strongholds, by directly offering benefits to the voters, a sort of-' you in Sakaeow don't need Sanoh, I can offer you goodies direct, you in Nong Khai don't need Pinit,you in Korat don't need Suwat, you in Sukothai don't need Somsak, my national populist policies override any benefits those local leaders can offer you'.

But with the big man gone we can expect to see a return to regionalism.

But once Thaksin's gone

[lukamar]

But with the big man gone we can expect to see a return to regionalism.

But once Thaksin's gone

So what you are saying is, the reasoning behind the joint Anti-Thaksin Campaign is to get rid of Thaksin so the TRT will hopefully disintegrate under a lesser leader and the smaller parties who now have little support will be able to regain some lost ground they otherwise would not be able to gain via an election.

[ColPyat]

The strong grass roots system you write of is only the system of canvassers, village headmen, Kamnan that has existed for years. They will switch their loyalty according to the prevailing political climate, Issan was The New Inspiration Party 10 years ago, Nakhon Ratchasima was Chart Pattana, Thaksin bought them up and\or threatened them to merge with TRT.

If he is gone then we can expect to see TRT disintegrate, Sudatat's Bangkok faction doesn't like Newin's NE faction, Somsak's Lower North faction are ambitious in their own right.

Thaksin treats his own MPs like dumb monkeys, to quote your expression, no dissent, no tabling of independent motions, all vote for Suriya in the censure debate before hearing the evidence.

What Thaksin tried with his populist policies was to win the rural majority vote and at the same time wipe out the influence of local fiefdoms, strongholds, by directly offering benefits to the voters, a sort of-' you in Sakaeow don't need Sanoh, I can offer you goodies direct, you in Nong Khai don't need Pinit,you in Korat don't need Suwat, you in Sukothai don't need Somsak, my national populist policies override any benefits those local leaders can offer you'.

But with the big man gone we can expect to see a return to regionalism.

But once Thaksin's gone

You are wrong if you believe that it is only the old canvasser sythem. He has incorporated the canvasser sythem, but he has built up a parallel sythem of real grass roots support. Just look at the last elections - see Sanan's complete miscalculation with his Mahachon party, he propelled himself into political oblivion, and Sanoh has as well (that's why he is regularly seen at the demonstrations, trying to get back into the old power game).

Villagers are sick and tired of the old canvasser sythem, that is one of the main reason why they support Thaksin.

Yes, without Thaksin the TRT is most likely going to collapse. The TRT is a strange conglomerate of differing vested interests held together by Thaksin mastering the game of using advanced spin doctor populism and playing each fraction off against the other.

And yes, once Thaksin is gone, these mafia style politcs of old might try to return, only that they will have a much harder time as villagers have had under Thaksin at least the illusion to be part of the political sythem, and not only as victims.

I don't think a return to those days is a step towards "democracy".

As long as the opposition has no vision for Thailand's future that incorporates the rural poor, that long the opposition will not get a majority in any election anymore, will always stay a mainly urban based minority in a country with 2/3 of the population living upcountry.

Anyhow, so far i don't see Thaksin on his way out, and i don't see him running around the cntry mindlessly. I see him rousing support from many parts of the population while the opposition wastes valuable resources and doesn't do anything substantial to get Thaksin voters over to their side.

[jdinasia]

But with the big man gone we can expect to see a return to regionalism.

But once Thaksin's gone

So what you are saying is, the reasoning behind the joint Anti-Thaksin Campaign is to get rid of Thaksin so the TRT will hopefully disintegrate under a lesser leader and the smaller parties who now have little support will be able to regain some lost ground they otherwise would not be able to gain via an election.

Did you even read the post? where in it did Siripon state the reasoning behind the "anti-thaksin campaign"? The reason behind the "campaign" is to see Thaksin out of power for what people see as abuse of power and corruption.

[boppia]

The opposition or the people who are against corruption in government don't have a plan for the government, they just want a responsible and accountable government, something Thaksin hasn't given them.

To be honest the people protesting aren't that organized and they aren't promoting their cause as well as they could outside of Bangkok but as I said earlier over time their complaints will be heard around the country. Information gets out. I guess Thaksin could start confiscating media equipment and do house to house searches for pamphlets, fliers, and VCDs of the opposition. he could put everyone in jail or at least kill all the vital members of the opposition. These seem to be his techniques with his previous wars. He could call it the War on Information. Right now he's turned off the tap now all he has to doo is mop up the resistance. Sadly, some posters would like him to do this. They obviously prefer Thaksin knowing what is going on.

If you think Thaksin is the man take a trip to visit the rich farmers who caravaned down to Bangkok to support the PM. They are protesting in an elegant prefab protest site at the new Chatuchak park. Gosh where on earth did they pool all that money together to create such a lovely protest area. Thaksin must have really hook them up in the countryside as they now seem to have cash to spare. I'd bet if you go there tonight you'll be able to hear Thaksin speak to them as I think its their first day there. If you dare, ask them who's paying for their gas and did they get any 'stipend?'

Edited March 18, 2006 by boppia

[sriracha john]

Thaksin backtracks

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who rejected an open debate with opponets just a few days ago, is backtracking on the issue, and now says he will do anything which is beneficial to the nation.

Mr Thaksin said a working group of his Thai Rak Thai party now is studying a proposal by the People's Network for Elections (P-Net), which has tried to organise a public, televised debate next Friday between the caretaker government, the former three opposition parties - Democrat, Chart Thai and Mahachon - and representatives of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

Now, said Mr Thaksin today, "I personally agree to anything which can bring a fruitful result to the country."

That is almost an about-turn. Mr Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai backers vehemently rejected such a debate, and as recently as last Wednesday insisted that any negotiations would have to take place behind closed doors.

The official Thai News Agency reported that P-Net remains optimistic the three conflicting parties will attend the March 24 debate at Thammasat University.

P-Net secretary general Somchai Srisuthiyakorn told a press conference that his agency is still preparing for next week's debate. He sees the participants as Mr Thaksin, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, and a representative from the anti-Thaksin demonstrators, PAD.

In other news, asked about his planned visit to the South for the election campaign for his party members, Mr Thaksin said he had not yet gone through the details of the planned visit to the violence-plague region.

- BP

[Plus]

Just look at the last elections - see Sanan's complete miscalculation with his Mahachon party, he propelled himself into political oblivion, and Sanoh has as well (that's why he is regularly seen at the demonstrations, trying to get back into the old power game).

Now, if you were aware that Sanan spent last five years in politcal exile and then left the party where he build his political career you'd understand that his miscalculation has nothing to do with TRT's "paralel systems" but with losing his canvassers.

Are you aware that when Snoh joined TRT he brought about 70 sure win MPs with him. Over the years Taksin restled control over them from Shoh and now his fraction consist only of about 20 MPs, and when Snoh resigned only 6 resigned with him, and one those resigned begged Taksin for mercy to take him back. What was it about parallel systems and canvassers again?

Villagers are sick and tired of the old canvasser sythem, that is one of the main reason why they support Thaksin.

Really? What make you tihnk so? They still vote for exactly the same MPs they've been voting since they were born. Someone mentioned that 75% of PMs get reelected no matter under what banner they run.

And yes, once Thaksin is gone, these mafia style politcs of old might try to return....

They can't return because they've never left. Whatever happens after TRT desintegration, expect to see the same familiar faces under all new or revived NAP, Chat Pattana and other parites that have been swallowed by TRT.

As long as the opposition has no vision for Thailand's future that incorporates the rural poor, that long the opposition will not get a majority in any election anymore, will always stay a mainly urban based minority in a country with 2/3 of the population living upcountry.

You of course ignore the fact that the Democrats have also a complete lock on the South, and that with 120+ MPs it will easily become the biggest party in Parlament when TRT desintegrates. Then all those TRT factions will run to join them in ruling coalition.

Anyhow, so far i don't see Thaksin on his way out, and i don't see him running around the cntry mindlessly. I see him rousing support from many parts of the population while the opposition wastes valuable resources and doesn't do anything substantial to get Thaksin voters over to their side.

As I said, Democrats will get those voters on their side once their masters join Democrat led coalition.

I'm speculating, btw, we have to wait and see what happens to TRT exactly. They still have some very strong factions who can compete with Democrats. Will it be enough to form the majority in Parlament? Let's wait and see.

I suspect Taksin's running aroung the coutnry and drumming up support is not to win the elections, but to claim legitimacy against PAD. He's much more afraid of them than of Democrats.

Democrats, on the other hand, campaing in their strohghold to prevent TRT's win there. If they can hold on to the South and make sure that less than 20% vote for TRT, their mission is done. No need to feed all of the Isan and North.

[hammered]

Just look at the last elections - see Sanan's complete miscalculation with his Mahachon party, he propelled himself into political oblivion, and Sanoh has as well (that's why he is regularly seen at the demonstrations, trying to get back into the old power game).

Now, if you were aware that Sanan spent last five years in politcal exile and then left the party where he build his political career you'd understand that his miscalculation has nothing to do with TRT's "paralel systems" but with losing his canvassers.

Are you aware that when Snoh joined TRT he brought about 70 sure win MPs with him. Over the years Taksin restled control over them from Shoh and now his fraction consist only of about 20 MPs, and when Snoh resigned only 6 resigned with him, and one those resigned begged Taksin for mercy to take him back. What was it about parallel systems and canvassers again?

Villagers are sick and tired of the old canvasser sythem, that is one of the main reason why they support Thaksin.

Really? What make you tihnk so? They still vote for exactly the same MPs they've been voting since they were born. Someone mentioned that 75% of PMs get reelected no matter under what banner they run.

And yes, once Thaksin is gone, these mafia style politcs of old might try to return....

They can't return because they've never left. Whatever happens after TRT desintegration, expect to see the same familiar faces under all new or revived NAP, Chat Pattana and other parites that have been swallowed by TRT.

As long as the opposition has no vision for Thailand's future that incorporates the rural poor, that long the opposition will not get a majority in any election anymore, will always stay a mainly urban based minority in a country with 2/3 of the population living upcountry.

You of course ignore the fact that the Democrats have also a complete lock on the South, and that with 120+ MPs it will easily become the biggest party in Parlament when TRT desintegrates. Then all those TRT factions will run to join them in ruling coalition.

Anyhow, so far i don't see Thaksin on his way out, and i don't see him running around the cntry mindlessly. I see him rousing support from many parts of the population while the opposition wastes valuable resources and doesn't do anything substantial to get Thaksin voters over to their side.

As I said, Democrats will get those voters on their side once their masters join Democrat led coalition.

I'm speculating, btw, we have to wait and see what happens to TRT exactly. They still have some very strong factions who can compete with Democrats. Will it be enough to form the majority in Parlament? Let's wait and see.

I suspect Taksin's running aroung the coutnry and drumming up support is not to win the elections, but to claim legitimacy against PAD. He's much more afraid of them than of Democrats.

Democrats, on the other hand, campaing in their strohghold to prevent TRT's win there. If they can hold on to the South and make sure that less than 20% vote for TRT, their mission is done. No need to feed all of the Isan and North.

Interesting to see people debating Sanan's oblivion in the Thaksin era. Let's not forget the legal precedent set in the Sanan case that overlooking declaring your assets correctly did not qualify as a defence against being removed from politics for 5 years. Now when did that recently established precedent get overturned?

[Plus]

Now I wish I paid more attention to Thai politics in those days, but back then it was on the way up and predicatbely boring. Yeah, they got Sanan, good start. Then Taksin came in like Godzilla and crashed everything.

And what if the whisper never comes? It seems to me that the minority has never thought about this prospect.

That's another one open to speculations. Striclty speaking there's no chance of The King telling Taksin to resign, certainly not publicly. Even in 1992, when gunfire was on Bangkok streets and blood was spilled, HM didn't tell Suchinda to resign directly. Airing of that archive footage is a pretty clear clue as to what the palace wants to see. And it wasn't Chamlong who packed the bags then.

Last week the news was leaked about Prem preparing a major, strong worded speach for some function on March 24. Now that TRT agreed to talks in principle everybody has a week to rest and freshen up. If, however, TRT will keep on saying things like "It's not important for Taksin himself to engage in talks", the writing on the wall becomes clearer.

In my opinon, he behaved most ungentlemanly in this past couple of weeks, feigning ignorance when given hints in most direct terms. Perhaps he's beyond the point when people up there want to talk to him at all.

As a subject, he won't be ever abandonded by the King and might get a few words in private, but King's entourage and Privy Council will most likey despise him.

His rallying "rent a crowd" villagers will not impress them in the slightest. He's just holding poor farmers for ransom for his own survival.

[ColPyat]

Over the years Taksin restled control over them from Shoh and now his fraction consist only of about 20 MPs, and when Snoh resigned only 6 resigned with him, and one those resigned begged Taksin for mercy to take him back. What was it about parallel systems and canvassers again?

Doesn't this show that Thaksin has taken over the powerbase of many old style politicians like Sanoh?

His rallying "rent a crowd" villagers will not impress them in the slightest. He's just holding poor farmers for ransom for his own survival.

If this is the base of your assesment of the village support Thaksin has, than i would suggest you spend more time in some Northern and Isaarn Villages instead of reading The Nation. You might see then that his support there is real and not just bought. You might also go and have a chat with those villagers from the Caravan of the Poor.

Democrats, on the other hand, campaing in their strohghold to prevent TRT's win there. If they can hold on to the South and make sure that less than 20% vote for TRT, their mission is done. No need to feed all of the Isan and North.

And this is what i am most worried about. Whatever you may think about Thaksin, one thing he has reached: he has woken the Northerners and Isaarn folks out of many years of political lethargy. I have my doubts that they will just sit by quietly while things return to the old style corruption that gave them folks nil.

But anyhow, as long as you believe that the only support Thaksin has upcountry is bought, then this discussion is futile.

[lukamar]

But anyhow, as long as you believe that the only support Thaksin has upcountry is bought, then this discussion is futile.

My extended family in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai and Phayao can't be bought and all will vote TRT. They are not uneducated, uninformed or farmers - just normal northerners who think Thaksin has done a good job.

I should also add that they would be very upset if he was driven out of office by what they see as a mob.

Edited March 18, 2006 by lukamar

[Plus]

Doesn't this show that Thaksin has taken over the powerbase of many old style politicians like Sanoh?

Of course - he's got all the MPs Snoh used to control, along with their canvassers. People still vote for those MPs, remember?

But anyhow, as long as you believe that the only support Thaksin has upcountry is bought, then this discussion is futile.

All his populist policies are just a vote buying on a large, national scale. Do you see anything in them but giving out money to the villagers? 30 baht healthcare, not just any health care, ONE MILLION village fund, debt suspension program, SML fund, Ua-Arthorn programs, conversion of land into money - has he ever promised anything to the people but the money? Has he invested in farmers education and skills development? Has he invested in decentralisation so that those farmers have a say in how to develop their own land? Constitutionally mandated transefre of 35% of the budget to local bodies has been quitely postponed again, till 2009.

Has he ever listened to those farmers' grievances when they do try to take care of their lands? Has he listened to Thai-Malaysian pipeline protesters? Ban Krut protesters, Pak Mool Dam protesters? Assembly of the Poor?

What else did he do at At Samat but giving out the money and ordering his underlings to take care of people's debts?

In fact one of the most dangerous consequencies of "Taksinomics" is hooking villagers on government's handouts. It goes directly opposite to HM's self-sufficiency concept that was widely embraced by Constitution writers but seems lost under TRT, and Taksin's policies spell not just disater, but ruin, in the long run.

And yes, farmers do love him for that. He connected to them. They are like alcoholics voting on prohibition now.

That's how he built his powerbase - by promising peanuts from government's budget, while he and his cronies made billions upon billions aways from public, and villagers', scrutiny. Do you realise how much money Shin Corp made in these past five years? You can cover all Isan with 1000 baht notes with the money he made for himself, or if you put that money in the trucks, the caravan will stretch from Khoen Kaen to Bangkok bumper to bumper. Check The Nation for exact calculations.

So yes, I insist that all his support is bought with money and promises of more money. Show me any of his policies that do not promise money to people in one way or another.

And yes, I agree that the old style patronage system took a beating under Taksin - MPs don't have control over local development anymore, most popular policies are centrally run. That gave Taksin the leverage against TRT's factions, and MPs don't appreciate that, and once Taksin's out they'll have no mercy for him either.

Do you think those pro-Taksin's farmers at Chatuchak make good, knowledgeable, and responsible citizens? Have they said anything but "He might be a thief, but as long as I get the spoils, too, I don't care about that". Who are they but a gang trying to lay their hands on the loot? Do they know what Taksin's policies do to the country? They might be blissfully unaware about how Taksin has plundered country's coffers to pay for their support but that doesn't give them any legitimacy in the eyes of anti-Taksin crowd.

[jdinasia]

Of cocurse Thaksin's upcountry support is bought! Maybe not by 300 baht a vote! but didn't you guys read his most recent populist promises in Kanchanaburi?

Land titles for landless farmers (free land)

a note book computer for every first-grader

bank loans for houses

bank loans for cars

all this in just one speech! If things get scarier for him my maid is gonna be driving a mazerati!

It'll be sad that Luk's extended family is gonna be upset! But it's a pretty sure bet they will be!

Anyone with an education at all can see that continuing these populist handouts is both counter to what the king is advocating in sustainable growth and a certain killer on the Thai economy if he really managed to deliver!

It seems strange to me that many of the farang with ties upcountry have become so addled that they cannot see what is happening.

[jdinasia]

Plus is way more eloquent than me!

[sriracha john]

If this is the base of your assesment of the village support Thaksin has, than i would suggest you spend more time in some Northern and Isaarn Villages instead of reading The Nation. You might see then that his support there is real and not just bought. You might also go and have a chat with those villagers from the Caravan of the Poor.

What about all the other NE people that do NOT like Thaksin... a perfect example being the "Original Poor" group, which is the Assembly of The Poor, not to be confused with the cheap knock-off copy "Caravan of the Poor." They've been protesting his policies and coming down to Bangkok, on occasion, in droves for the past five years to voice their opposition of Thaksin on various farmer issues.

[sriracha john]

But anyhow, as long as you believe that the only support Thaksin has upcountry is bought, then this discussion is futile.

My extended family in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai and Phayao can't be bought and all will vote TRT. They are not uneducated, uninformed or farmers - just normal northerners who think Thaksin has done a good job.

I should also add that they would be very upset if he was driven out of office by what they see as a mob.

Are they equally upset by the issue raised in Post #157?

I would also be interested in hearing the opinions of any other Thais regarding this issue.

Edited March 18, 2006 by sriracha john

[jdinasia]

Johnn ... don't confuse people with the facts!

[ColPyat]

All his populist policies are just a vote buying on a large, national scale. Do you see anything in them but giving out money to the villagers? 30 baht healthcare, not just any health care, ONE MILLION village fund, debt suspension program, SML fund, Ua-Arthorn programs, conversion of land into money - has he ever promised anything to the people but the money? Has he invested in farmers education and skills development? Has he invested in decentralisation so that those farmers have a say in how to develop their own land? Constitutionally mandated transefre of 35% of the budget to local bodies has been quitely postponed again, till 2009.

Well, yes, of course, populist policies are designed to get voters to support you. And, apart from the 30 Baht health sceme which is a serious improvement for the rural poor (i have relatives who have AIDS and get free antiretroviral medication now where they would have died before), most policies will bring those farmers long term into deep trouble.

Fact though remains that people adore him. And fact is that no previous government has given them anything, not even attention.

The forum of the poor has initially supported Thaksin, after the Chuan government has year after year stalled the talks by waiting out the hotseason protests until they had to return upcountry to make a living in the rainseason.

It does not make any difference to the rural poor if you, me, or city people from the demonstrations rave against Thaksin's populist policies unless they can convince those rural poor that they have better policies. I have listened ad absurdum to the speaches during the demonstrations, not even the attempt has been made there to show the rural poor what should have been done. Only one nationalist speaker after the other raving against the "sale of the country", a point that is utterly irrelevant to the needs of the rural poor.

And as much as i liked Chuan, the reason his government fell was that he did nothing to allevate the direct immediate problems of the rural poor. The Pak Moon dam protests went on durin his time, so did the forum of the poor protests. His landreform scemes were not even attempted to be put into practice. There was no healthcare whatsoever for the poor.

Yes, you don't like Thaksin, i don't like Thaksin, the demonstrators don't like Thaksin. But the vast majority of the Thai population does like him.

And as long as nobody even makes an attempt to promote his ideas as an alternative to Thaksin's populist schemes people will still like Thaksin. I don't hear any vision for the future by any sort of opposition to Thaksin. The demonstrators only want to get rid of Thaksin. I guess if they have to avoid disussing any future plans as they would have some serious differences of opinion there: Chamlong would like some stoneage Buddhist paradise without alcohol and any sort of nightlife, Sondhi only wants someone who pays his debts resulting from megalomaniac scemes and protectionism so he can keep on being a megalomaniac media mogul and hoping to become Thai prime minsiter one day, some others want some socialist communist dreamland, and people like Sanoh just want to return to the old style corruption.

The Democrats, as you pointed out so well, just want to return to the old status quo where they can keep on doing nothing, and make lotsa money.

That they don't like Thaksin does not make them automatically my friends. Just because i don't like Thaksin populism does not mean that i have to side with fascist xenophobes, old style mafia politicians, left wing dreamers and other assorted corrupt tossers who have lived far too long on the back of the millions of rural poor. Because they are not going to make things any better, especially not for the poor.

[Krub]

But anyhow, as long as you believe that the only support Thaksin has upcountry is bought, then this discussion is futile.

My extended family in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai and Phayao can't be bought and all will vote TRT. They are not uneducated, uninformed or farmers - just normal northerners who think Thaksin has done a good job.

I should also add that they would be very upset if he was driven out of office by what they see as a mob.

Same with my friends and most villagers around my place outside of Uttaradit north of Phitsanoluk. No TRT handouts needed to have them vote for Thaksin as he, in their eyes, has and is doing good things for the country.

They see the protesters as a minor group of unhappy folks.

[slimdog]

Johnn ... don't confuse people with the facts!

Just to confuse people a bit more...

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/pag...ate=2002-04-12&

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2005/11/30...s_19292517.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/pag...clid=6&id=58277