173 Deaths In First Three Days Of Songkran

[sscsamui]

If the government would truly care about the lives of their people during the Songkran festival they would make it One day though out the country. Less deaths and accidents. But... the government is only thinking about how many tourist and money they can generate... So sad... RIP to all the lives lost.....

[DocN]

I believe those high numbers of casualties during a holiday season are unique in the world.

In the USA, more people die of heart attacks during Thanksgiving than at any other time of year. So not so unique. Thais kill themselves on the road, while Americans eat themselves to death. Neither is a good way to go.

There is one difference, though: if I eat myself to death...I eat MYSELF to death!

If I get drunk and into a car, not observing traffic- rules, chances are, I do not only kill myself...

[Nisa]

What's STUPID is the '7 deadly days' are about the same as the annual daily average.

173/3 = 57 per day * 365 in a year = 20,805 per year.

I've read annual numbers ranging from 16,000 to 27,00 depending on how you cacluate 'road death'.

From my understand if you don't die at the scene of the accident but later in hospital, it's not counted in the ROAD TOLL. so the REAL number is much, much higher than the OFFICAL number.

The official numbers of deaths at the scene the last few years has been around 8000. Obviously for comparisson sake, this is what you need to compare holdays deaths which are given daily.

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

The larger numbers you see out there are generally from WHO which does a calculation to estimate the number of people who die within 30 days which brings it up to around 13,000 and then they do another calculation, which in Thailand's case they admit they have no confidence in their number, because it is a less developed nation and they are skeptical of reporting which brings their estimate up to around 25,000.

If you use the WHO numbers then there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths due to the holiday.

[EyesWideOpen]

What's STUPID is the '7 deadly days' are about the same as the annual daily average.

173/3 = 57 per day * 365 in a year = 20,805 per year.

I've read annual numbers ranging from 16,000 to 27,00 depending on how you cacluate 'road death'.

From my understand if you don't die at the scene of the accident but later in hospital, it's not counted in the ROAD TOLL. so the REAL number is much, much higher than the OFFICAL number.

The official numbers of deaths at the scene the last few years has been around 8000. Obviously for comparisson sake, this is what you need to compare holdays deaths which are given daily.

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

The larger numbers you see out there are generally from WHO which does a calculation to estimate the number of people who die within 30 days which brings it up to around 13,000 and then they do another calculation, which in Thailand's case they admit they have no confidence in their number, because it is a less developed nation and they are skeptical of reporting which brings their estimate up to around 25,000.

If you use the WHO numbers then there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths due to the holiday.

The WHO certainly does not have an ax to grind by making the accident numbers higher, while the Thai government would certainly have an ax to grind by wanting lower numbers to save face. So if I was a betting man, I would have to go for the WHO numbers of 26,000 per year. In any event a lot of people are being killed. So depending upon your point of view, this is either an ongoing tragedy, or Darwin hard at work weeding out poor drivers...

And not sure if the Thai counting of deaths on scene would pass the test of logic. If you have an accident, and die at the hospital the next day, the accident killed you...No need to overthink this one !!

Edited April 14, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[Nisa]

I believe those high numbers of casualties during a holiday season are unique in the world.

In the USA, more people die of heart attacks during Thanksgiving than at any other time of year. So not so unique. Thais kill themselves on the road, while Americans eat themselves to death. Neither is a good way to go.

There is one difference, though: if I eat myself to death...I eat MYSELF to death!

If I get drunk and into a car, not observing traffic- rules, chances are, I do not only kill myself...

Given most deaths are motorbikes and folks not wearing helmets, it would seem that they majority do kill themselves in Thailand.

As for Road Deaths, Thanksgiving and the US ... Here is a link stating that in 2009 there were 502 people killed in car crashes on Thanksgiving compared to the typical day which sees 102 people die on the road. http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/20/dangerous-holidays-fatalities-lifestyle-vehicles-cars-traffic-accidents.html

That is about a 5x increase in road deaths for Thanksgiving while Thailand will probably see there numbers double during this holiday and even on the wort day will see a 3x increase.

But who would have thought that in countries where there are lots of drivers there would be considerably more road deaths on festive holidays where people drink and often travel by car during the holidays?

Sometimes I get the feelings some posters never read news until they came to Thailand.

[Nisa]

What's STUPID is the '7 deadly days' are about the same as the annual daily average.

173/3 = 57 per day * 365 in a year = 20,805 per year.

I've read annual numbers ranging from 16,000 to 27,00 depending on how you cacluate 'road death'.

From my understand if you don't die at the scene of the accident but later in hospital, it's not counted in the ROAD TOLL. so the REAL number is much, much higher than the OFFICAL number.

The official numbers of deaths at the scene the last few years has been around 8000. Obviously for comparisson sake, this is what you need to compare holdays deaths which are given daily.

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

The larger numbers you see out there are generally from WHO which does a calculation to estimate the number of people who die within 30 days which brings it up to around 13,000 and then they do another calculation, which in Thailand's case they admit they have no confidence in their number, because it is a less developed nation and they are skeptical of reporting which brings their estimate up to around 25,000.

If you use the WHO numbers then there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths due to the holiday.

The WHO certainly does not have an ax to grind by making the accident numbers higher, while the Thai government would certainly have an ax to grind by wanting lower numbers to save face. So if I was a betting man, I would have to go for the WHO numbers of 26,000 per year. In any event a lot of people are being killed. So depending upon your point of view, this is either an ongoing tragedy, or Darwin hard at work weeding out poor drivers...

And not sure if the Thai counting of deaths on scene would pass the test of logic. If you have an accident, and die at the hospital the next day, the accident killed you...No need to overthink this one !!

Nobody as far as I known believes the WHO has an ax to grind but the WHO themselves admit they do not have confidence in their estimate for Thailand (and some other countries). They adjust the numbers each country reports and typically give a 95% confidence rating but with some countries they are unable to do this. Thailand, like numerous countries, also only provides death at scene numbers and a mathematical factor is added to come up with an estimate of number of deaths.

They point is not about which number is right but rather comparing apples to apples and in this case if you want to use the WHO numbers for number of deaths being reported daily during the holiday then it means Songkran has resulted in a 20% decrease in road deaths during the first 3-days. But if you want to compare Apple to Apples and use the official Thai numbers then you'll understand there has been a 60% increase in deaths during this period.

[Thaddeus]

Sometimes I get the feelings some posters never read news until they came to Thailand.

Sometimes, I get the feeling that some posters will go to the ends of the Earth to defend the Thais, probably spending hours to drag up facts and figures that some one else will dispute after also taking an inordinate amount of time that would be better spent doing something else.

Like learning how to drive, or understanding 'what if"

[Nisa]

Sometimes I get the feelings some posters never read news until they came to Thailand.

Sometimes, I get the feeling that some posters will go to the ends of the Earth to defend the Thais, probably spending hours to drag up facts and figures that some one else will dispute after also taking an inordinate amount of time that would be better spent doing something else.

Like learning how to drive, or understanding 'what if"

Who is defending Thais and in what post? Are you so bitter and unhappy that anything that isn't a direct slam at Thais is seen as defending them? I'm sorry if you are intimidated by facts and figures that take seconds to look up and allow somebody to have a logical understanding of a subject such as a basic understanding of how many additional road deaths are happening during Songkran.

[EyesWideOpen]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

[Thaddeus]

Sometimes I get the feelings some posters never read news until they came to Thailand.

Sometimes, I get the feeling that some posters will go to the ends of the Earth to defend the Thais, probably spending hours to drag up facts and figures that some one else will dispute after also taking an inordinate amount of time that would be better spent doing something else.

Like learning how to drive, or understanding 'what if"

Who is defending Thais and in what post?

You, practically every single one, the one that stands out the most is the BTS security guard who delivered a sever twatting to a bloke with some balloons.... would you like me to search for some more? ... you may not like the results.

[marstons]

I've been driving around all weekend on my motorbike in Chiang Mai. Sure, I get about 30 buckets dumped on me, and even some good hits when traveling 60-80km/hr on my way down to Hang Dong, but nothing much worse than a slight push. Bike actually seems more stable from hits when I'm going faster, though my side might not agree

Best one was when a Thai walked out into the middle of the Super Highway here to make sure I can came to a stop. I was having fun, so I didn't bother to go around him. He shook my hand, dumped a lot of water on me, and offered me and my girlfriend a sip of beer. Not sure I've ever been offered a beer while driving anywhere, but I enjoyed the experience and politely declined.

Only other comment is that I really don't mind the Thai's who dump water on me. It's the foreigners who seem to be the most drunk and stupid of all the people I've seen. Maybe ban the foreigners.

Best idea yet. Ban the foreigners. They make more trouble than anyone. At the

very least, give them a personality test and a grooming test.

Foreigners often have very poor manners. Become very obnoxious when drunk,

not to mention they are often fat, ugly and smell like a goat.

check the stats highest death tolls are in areas with hardly any farangs. Its a myth to always blame tourist. most deaths (5) recorded in Prachuap Khiri Khan

[Nisa]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

[Nisa]

Sometimes I get the feelings some posters never read news until they came to Thailand.

Sometimes, I get the feeling that some posters will go to the ends of the Earth to defend the Thais, probably spending hours to drag up facts and figures that some one else will dispute after also taking an inordinate amount of time that would be better spent doing something else.

Like learning how to drive, or understanding 'what if"

Who is defending Thais and in what post?

You, practically every single one, the one that stands out the most is the BTS security guard who delivered a sever twatting to a bloke with some balloons.... would you like me to search for some more? ... you may not like the results.

Clearly you have issues if asking for an example to back up your comment in THIS thread and you need to go back more than a year ago about a completely unrelated topic of a farang being video recorded physically attacking security and employees at the BTS after being told by security he could not ride the BTS.

You do realize what topic you are in now don't you? I would think if you have a problem with something I wrote in another thread you should comment about it there ... doesn't that seem like the appropriate, proper, logical and common sense thing to do unless of course you are just using the forum to make personal attacks against other posters and the topic means little to you.

[Thaddeus]

Oooh, touched a nerve, your attitude is the same across all topics, you, trying to narrow it down to just this one as a means of deflection only affirms that.

[Nisa]

I've been driving around all weekend on my motorbike in Chiang Mai. Sure, I get about 30 buckets dumped on me, and even some good hits when traveling 60-80km/hr on my way down to Hang Dong, but nothing much worse than a slight push. Bike actually seems more stable from hits when I'm going faster, though my side might not agree

Best one was when a Thai walked out into the middle of the Super Highway here to make sure I can came to a stop. I was having fun, so I didn't bother to go around him. He shook my hand, dumped a lot of water on me, and offered me and my girlfriend a sip of beer. Not sure I've ever been offered a beer while driving anywhere, but I enjoyed the experience and politely declined.

Only other comment is that I really don't mind the Thai's who dump water on me. It's the foreigners who seem to be the most drunk and stupid of all the people I've seen. Maybe ban the foreigners.

Best idea yet. Ban the foreigners. They make more trouble than anyone. At the

very least, give them a personality test and a grooming test.

Foreigners often have very poor manners. Become very obnoxious when drunk,

not to mention they are often fat, ugly and smell like a goat.

check the stats highest death tolls are in areas with hardly any farangs. Its a myth to always blame tourist. most deaths (5) recorded in Prachuap Khiri Khan

I think Brad was joking ... "fat, ugly and smell like a goat" ... or at least hope he was. And there really should be hardly any Farang road deaths since there are hardly any farangs in Thailand as compared to Thais and Asians and they shouldn't be responsible for too many accidents since most don't drive while here.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Nisa

[Felt 35]

What surprise me is that the numbers discussed in this tread regarding fatalities at Songkran and New Year got reduced to the half over the night after the exile man and his family took over the control of this country in 2001. You know the one who straight in the face to WHO said no birdflu in Thailand when at the same time many people was deadly ill in hospitals or not to forget the Tsunami which the exile-man Government in a emergency meeting early morning 26. December 2004 decided not to warn the coastal cities in the south because it could damage the tourism industry!

All well if the numbers really are reduced but can anyone tell me to have seen any regulations (which actually help) regarding traffic safety here over the last 20 years? I have unfortunately not!

[Nisa]

What surprise me is that the numbers discussed in this tread regarding fatalities at Songkran and New Year got reduced to the half over the night after the exile man and his family took over the control of this country in 2001. You know the one who straight in the face to WHO said no birdflu in Thailand when at the same time many people was deadly ill in hospitals or not to forget the Tsunami which the exile-man Government in a emergency meeting early morning 26. December 2004 decided not to warn the coastal cities in the south because it could damage the tourism industry!

All well if the numbers really are reduced but can anyone tell me to have seen any regulations (which actually help) regarding traffic safety here over the last 20 years? I have unfortunately not!

I am not sure about numbers going in half in 2001 since the yearly numbers from 2001 to 2006 (Thaksin) actually went up.

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

*** wouldn't concentrate too much on the numbers since they can be argued all day but rather the trend from year to year since the same methodology is being used to come up with the numbers. Even if you increase them tenfold the trend is still going to be the same. ***

The bigger question might be what has happened to cause the numbers to go down so much since 2009.

As a whole it is only logical that the numbers are going to trend down as they do pretty much across the globe and it kind of makes sense that Thailand's numbers might go down at a faster rate than more developed nations since Thailand is modernizing at a much faster pace because for so long it was way behind these countries when it came to issues like road safety.

Some of the reasons for the decline are obviously safer automobiles and more use of safety helmets & safety belts as well as improved roadways, education and enforcement.

Even in a country like the US where enforcement and road safety has been high for a long time they too have seen a big drop in the last decade.

< < < < Off topic obfuscation information removed > > > >

*** Again ... just to be clear I am speaking about trends and not concerned with actual numbers since they make no difference if the method used to compile them each year is the same. ***

Edited April 15, 2013 by metisdead

[diehard60]

Those numbers are only in the tourist areas. The actual numbers is really much higher. Just like any other country.

[Nisa]

Those numbers are only in the tourist areas. The actual numbers is really much higher. Just like any other country.

I guess you missed the point of the post despite my making two duplicate statements to explain the actual totals are not the point but rather the trend was. You can take those numbers and multiply them by a zillion but the trend is still going to be the same since the numbers or totals for each year are based on the same data collection methodology.

Edit: But I am curious as to why you think the numbers are only for tourist areas. My guess is they are low for a number of reason, including they are deaths at the scene only, but where tourists go has absolutely nothing to do with it unless you meant to say the poorer and less populated areas don't report as accurately but for some reason want to relate this to tourism. .

Edited April 14, 2013 by Nisa

[HeavyDrinker]

So you're saying the trend is downward Nisa?

[Nisa]

So you're saying the trend is downward Nisa?

The trends are very clear to anyone who want to look at them and read the post and if I need to (re)explain them then it really is no point in discussing them.

[HeavyDrinker]

Well, the thing with posting a load of stats is that you need to quantify them.

As far as I can see the stats for Thailand are about the norm. I am just a bit fogged by your trying to compare with other nations when Thailand is under discussion.

I'm not having a go, however it seems that you are trying to back up your 'stats' with supposition and guesswork, where a clear, well reasoned analysis of your data would be more useful.

I actually noted tonight that the roads around Lat Krabang/Sri Nakharin/King Kaew/Bang Na-Trad, were far quieter after dark than in previous years. This could have been due to the very noticable (yet unobtrusive) police presence, hence my question.

[Nisa]

Well, the thing with posting a load of stats is that you need to quantify them.

As far as I can see the stats for Thailand are about the norm. I am just a bit fogged by your trying to compare with other nations when Thailand is under discussion.

I'm not having a go, however it seems that you are trying to back up your 'stats' with supposition and guesswork, where a clear, well reasoned analysis of your data would be more useful.

I actually noted tonight that the roads around Lat Krabang/Sri Nakharin/King Kaew/Bang Na-Trad, were far quieter after dark than in previous years. This could have been due to the very noticable (yet unobtrusive) police presence, hence my question.

I am neither having a go at you but there is no guesswork ... I posted stats with their sources. Nobody is stopping you from performing a well reasoned analysis of the data and apologize if you missed the point that trends in Thailand are not so unique which should cause you to consider the reasons for this which is the question of the poster I was responding. Hint: Do you think traffic regulations in Thailand effect the number of road deaths in the US or the UK?

I also don't think three very easy to read graphs should be considered a "load of stats" unless you are determined to try to find a way to dismiss them.

Edit: Also curious to understand what you mean about the stats for Thailand being "normal" but then criticizing the showing of other countries (which most of us can relate) to show the stats are fairly normal. If you haven't noticed there is a tendency from posters to act like the sky is falling in Thailand with every negative news report and if things don't appear that negative than they simply disregard this information as lies. So again, I apologize if in my response to another poster's question you missed the point.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Nisa

[NongKhaiKid]

How do this year's figures so far match-up to last yr's..?? Or do we have to wait till the end of the '7 days'?? (no comparison seems to have been made yet).

The Monday edition of the Bkk Post reports the government fears the final figures will top last year's " record " levels so the Interior Minister has ordered provincial authorities to step up preventative measures. However he has also stated that there will be no punishment for failure which is a very Thai cop out and might encourage some to do little or nothing other than have a couple of excuses handy. Come Thursday morning as the national statistics start to be compiled I wonder if the truth will be told especially if worse than last year considering all the pre-Songkrn hot air from officialdom

[Nisa]

How do this year's figures so far match-up to last yr's..?? Or do we have to wait till the end of the '7 days'?? (no comparison seems to have been made yet).

The Monday edition of the Bkk Post reports the government fears the final figures will top last year's " record " levels so the Interior Minister has ordered provincial authorities to step up preventative measures. However he has also stated that there will be no punishment for failure which is a very Thai cop out and might encourage some to do little or nothing other than have a couple of excuses handy. Come Thursday morning as the national statistics start to be compiled I wonder if the truth will be told especially if worse than last year considering all the pre-Songkrn hot air from officialdom

It might be a bit early for them to guess if the numbers will top last year but if they do it will be very sad since last year the number went up considerably from the previous year. One thing that might be skewing the numbers right now is the first three days this year (173 Dead) were Thursday, Friday and Saturday while the first 3-days last year (144 Dead) were Wed., Thurs & Friday. However, the fact it did fall closer to the weekend this year could mean more people traveling and with the big increase in the vehicle sales the past year it might mean more people are choosing to drive themselves and their family ... not to mention the numbers last year were up after a year that had an incredible drop. My guess is the number will fall just short of last year.

Also, last years numbers were a bit interesting too as compared to the previous year in that there were actually less reported accidents last year but about 50 more fatalities.

.

Bottom line very sad if there is another year of moving in the wrong direction.

Edit: Last year wasn't a "record" number and believe it was the 2nd lowest number in the last decade.

I believe these numbers were based on counting 10 Days of Songkran

2003: 668

2004: 654

2005: 522

2006: 476

These numbers are definitely counting 7 Days of Songkran as is the standard now

2007: 361

2008: 368

2009: 373

2010: 361

2011: 271

2012: 320

Edited April 14, 2013 by Nisa

[LuckyLew]

on a positive note ... the average IQ of the Thai people has gone up the last 3 days LOL

[maidu]

There are plenty of Thais who hate the massive death toll on the roads here. My only Thai family have been victims of drunk driving. Are they just supposed to accept it?

The vast majority seem to accept it , and many other issues, with apathy (my Thai family members included) until it directly affects them. Which is why anything positive is so slow to happen.

That's it in a nutshell. Thais won't complain about anything - not publicly anyway. They'll tolerate annoyances ad infinitum. Yet, every so often the shit hits the fan - and the results can be harmful and/or the Thai person goes ballistic in protestation. The reputation that Thais have for 'tolerating all annoying things' is a facade. It's the practice of sitting still and not showing annoyance - like a meditation practice, though it's not meditation. Military prisoners sometimes do a similar thing (act stoic) under duress. However, with Thais, their tolerant exterior can instantaneously turn to screaming rage. I've seen it many times - particularly with females.

[noitom]

This past New Year, January 2013, Thailand recorded 365 road deaths. Most were attributed to drunken driving and speeding. 82% involved motorcycles. S

So 173 so far for this Songkhran is a big improvement over this past New Year.

[Mosha]

If Trat repeats the New Year's outstanding statistic. The government should immediately dispatch a fact finding team to Trat. They can then roll out their system over the country, in time for the next Thailand v Darwin event.

[ignis]

Bangkok was totally amazing yesterday...

Met up with friends for Lunch, [not far from Nana] drove in arrived over 1 hour early.. No traffic

even after Lunch drove home in record time, took only 1 hour, normally would take 2+ hours at that time of day...

1 x accident taxi had run into the back of another taxi.......... car was as clean arriving home as it was the day before when I washed it.. do they still throw water this year ?