It can only be a question of time before they revisit that issue. That'll be a disaster for some.

It can only be a question of time before they revisit that issue. That'll be a disaster for some.

most certainly

Theblether, with all due respect I'm not comfortable at all with the presupposition that Thailand's economy, the baht, and pricing will always go up in a straight line. My experience is that economies fluctuate, as they have in the West and certainly in Thailand just 15 years ago.

One of the biggest mistakes I see investors make is believing that the way things are is the way they will be. I saw that so strongly in the US in the 20+ years of escalating real estate prices culminating in a mad rush to the top at the end. The mad rush was due to bubble building and buying because "real estate will always go up." That thinking, and investing into it, broke the banks, Wall Street, and Main Street.

The "smartest people" fell the hardest and farthest. All the time I just shook my head and ran the other way as if I were escaping a coming explosion.

I saw it in the silver crash of 1980. I've seen at least 3 stock market crashes and at least 3 housing market crashes in the US alone in my lifetime. In another thread here in the past few days, someone reminded about the sign from about 1969 or 1970 that said "Will the last person leaving Seattle please turn out the lights?" It was bad.

We also aren't taking into consideration the financial future of the West. We don't really have a handle on the future of those economies or costs right now either.

Another thing I'm not comfortable with is the comparison of living "back home" with living in Thailand. It is so, so, so much cheaper to live in the US than it is in any other represented farang country including Canada, that I can already live cheaper in the US on the same standard as I can in LOS.

First is health insurance which at my age I really can't get in LOS. But in the US I have Medicare Advantage which is full coverage and it costs me about $100 a month. That could be the big and deciding factor in breaking the bank for a retiree.

But everything in consumer goods from cars to electronics to food to you name it is way, way cheaper in the US than even Thailand if you compare apples with apples. The only exception is housing, but if one is willing to live in a nice clean small town in rural US, even housing is cheap right now.

In another thread I posted a random home listing near Cheyenne, Wyoming. I think it was about 1500 sq feet, 3br 2ba with a two car garage, and US infrastructure meaning curbs and gutters and paved street, all utilities underground, clean safe water and good sewer, etc. I think the home was built perhaps in the 70's and it wasn't any falling down shack. It just wasn't living high. I believe the asking price including an over sized lot was US$57,000. I can't even own that lot in LOS.

So there is already nothing attractive financially for me to move permanently to LOS, and I probably won't right now.

The only thing I can say is that at the moment, in the current situation and not knowing the future, I'll probably now stay put and simply do a couple of 90 day stays each year in LOS until the dust settles.

I don't share your certainty that things in Thailand always go up.

Edited April 23, 201313 yr by NeverSure

@neversure

I'm aware of the vagaries of the markets and the regular bubbles that occur throughout the World economies. As bangkokburning pointed out, the World has crossed the line in regards to urban population. The other social phenomenon which is taking place is the creation of a middle class for the first time in many countries, and a vast expansion in others.

This growth in the middle class is a good thing in many ways, however the downside can be excessive consumerism and property ownership. That's the way Thailand is going, it's all about property and land ownership. They are building like is going out of fashion, we can see that everywhere and the long predicted property crash will arrive someday. However after the crash, when some astute people fill their boots up with bargains, then the whole train sets off again.

An ever increasing middle class, being bloated by the wealth transference from the West, expanding exponentially. I figure 20 years, GuestHouse figures less.......but I see it as unstoppable.

The closer Thai GDP comes to that of the Western countries, then the more difficult it will be for people on an average income to retire here. The fiscal policies of the West seem to make that a certainty too.

I can see a lot of people doing 90 day hotel based rotations as you plan to do, but the idea of selling up your house in your home country and building a mansion in Thailand will just disappear.

...

Social security in the USA is at least a $1,000 a month I believe which is obviously enough money to survive in Isaan.

...

There is no minimum social security check. There is, however, a maximum.

@neversure

I'm aware of the vagaries of the markets and the regular bubbles that occur throughout the World economies. As bangkokburning pointed out, the World has crossed the line in regards to urban population. The other social phenomenon which is taking place is the creation of a middle class for the first time in many countries, and a vast expansion in others.

This growth in the middle class is a good thing in many ways, however the downside can be excessive consumerism and property ownership. That's the way Thailand is going, it's all about property and land ownership. They are building like is going out of fashion, we can see that everywhere and the long predicted property crash will arrive someday. However after the crash, when some astute people fill their boots up with bargains, then the whole train sets off again.

An ever increasing middle class, being bloated by the wealth transference from the West, expanding exponentially. I figure 20 years, GuestHouse figures less.......but I see it as unstoppable.

The closer Thai GDP comes to that of the Western countries, then the more difficult it will be for people on an average income to retire here. The fiscal policies of the West seem to make that a certainty too.

I can see a lot of people doing 90 day hotel based rotations as you plan to do, but the idea of selling up your house in your home country and building a mansion in Thailand will just disappear.

Well, no disrespect intended but I don't see it as inevitable the way you do. There is something different about the Thai mentality, creativity and work ethic than there is about say, the Chinese or the S. Koreans or the Japanese. I think the Thais have the ability to miss the opportunity to other countries. There isn't the same culture of a work force, and at the same time the government is corrupt and proud.

I see the opportunity for Thailand, but I don't think they will grab the brass ring. The way they operate at every level, and that is documented on this forum every day in multiple categories, will the an impediment and factory and other developers will look elsewhere for people who do have that work ethic, and where there aren't continual surprises from the government such as the new minimum wage.

I see Thailand as being incredibly unstable politically and economically, and frankly but gently, on a level of pure IQ. It seems as if there is something stupid which could be done, they'll grasp onto it. I think investors will tire of the government and lackadaisical workers, and begin to look elsewhere.

@theoldgit I've not voted yet. I speak to people all the time that plan to retire to Thailand and I worry that they may entrap themselves. Right now the exchange rate is grabbing all the headlines but I feel in the longer term it's the growth in the middle class wealth of the country ( industrialization and development too ) that will present the biggest challenge to retiree's

You live in the Sukhumvit corridor, you must already be wincing at some of the prices you see.

The exchange rate is a consequence of the increasing prices and rising prosperity of Thailand, not a cause.

I find it odd that some here seem to have a strange obsession with how much other people have or do not have, however they couch the terminology.

I can easily see this turning into another form of snobbery and bickering.

And the average wage in a country has nothing at all to do with what people really earn on a weekly basis.

re the obsession, I made the same point on another thread this morning......the only reason why I started this thread ( and I did say reluctantly ) was that I feel people are fixating on the wrong issues re financial well being.

A lot of people I know would be delighted if the exchange rate returned to 50/£. If you offered that rate nailed to the mast for 20 years there would be a rush to grab it.

As a rule of thumb South Korea 1960 and Thailand 1960, same same.......agrarian economies. You wouldn't say that about South Korea now, and there's few that could afford to retire there. The same thing is going to happen to the prime real estate in Thailand, it doesn't matter if the rate is nailed at 50, inflation is going to blow you out.

Im not seeing a high rate of inflation in Thailand compared with other countries. Commodities are going up all over the world. Thai property prices are extremely cheap and houses tend to depreciate in value in many areas!

Dollar is due a rally this year, good news for yank expats.

For those who think thailand is catching up/overtaking .. look at some statistics.

GDP per capita

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:THA&dl=en&hl=en&q=thailand%20gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:THA:SGP:CHN:USA:GBR:FRA:DEU&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

Net National Income

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:THA&dl=en&hl=en&q=thailand%20gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_adj_nnty_kd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:THA:SGP:CHN:USA:GBR:FRA:DEU&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

There is heaps of information available here.

There are just heaps of opportunities to make money in Thailand at the moment, I cant see why all these complaining?

Of course there is expanding middle class, and certain areas where prices are rocketing. If you arent middle class you can live out in the country somewhere, on a small budget, that will always be possible. There will always be new up and coming areas too if thats what you are after. Reminds me of people complaining about how expensive and built up samuii is.. if you want more basic and natural theres always another island. About 7,000 in the philippines.

Edited April 23, 201313 yr by BuffaloRescue

@theoldgit I've not voted yet. I speak to people all the time that plan to retire to Thailand and I worry that they may entrap themselves. Right now the exchange rate is grabbing all the headlines but I feel in the longer term it's the growth in the middle class wealth of the country ( industrialization and development too ) that will present the biggest challenge to retiree's

You live in the Sukhumvit corridor, you must already be wincing at some of the prices you see.

Only wincing if your not already in on the market and watching it rise

I find it odd that some here seem to have a strange obsession with how much other people have or do not have, however they couch the terminology.

I can easily see this turning into another form of snobbery and bickering.

And the average wage in a country has nothing at all to do with what people really earn on a weekly basis.

re the obsession, I made the same point on another thread this morning......the only reason why I started this thread ( and I did say reluctantly ) was that I feel people are fixating on the wrong issues re financial well being.

A lot of people I know would be delighted if the exchange rate returned to 50/£. If you offered that rate nailed to the mast for 20 years there would be a rush to grab it.

As a rule of thumb South Korea 1960 and Thailand 1960, same same.......agrarian economies. You wouldn't say that about South Korea now, and there's few that could afford to retire there. The same thing is going to happen to the prime real estate in Thailand, it doesn't matter if the rate is nailed at 50, inflation is going to blow you out.

Im not seeing a high rate of inflation in Thailand compared with other countries. Commodities are going up all over the world. Thai property prices are extremely cheap and houses tend to depreciate in value in many areas!

Dollar is due a rally this year, good news for yank expats.

For those who think thailand is catching up/overtaking .. look at some statistics.

GDP per capita

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:THA&dl=en&hl=en&q=thailand%20gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:THA:SGP:CHN:USA:GBR:FRA:DEU&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

Net National Income

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:THA&dl=en&hl=en&q=thailand%20gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_adj_nnty_kd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:THA:SGP:CHN:USA:GBR:FRA:DEU&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

There is heaps of information available here.

There are just heaps of opportunities to make money in Thailand at the moment, I cant see why all these complaining?

Of course there is expanding middle class, and certain areas where prices are rocketing. If you arent middle class you can live out in the country somewhere, on a small budget, that will always be possible. There will always be new up and coming areas too if thats what you are after. Reminds me of people complaining about how expensive and built up samuii is.. if you want more basic and natural theres always another island. About 7,000 in the philippines.

I am 66 today and have a yearly income of approx 1.9 million bhat tax free and that is on the falling rate of 23.95 bhat to the kiwi $ that is just income and not included any lump sums that I could draw down on if I so wished.

Re raising the retirement allowance to 1.5 per year from 800,000 I have always covered that in my thoughts in case it happens. I have lived here 10 years now but not in Bangers any more, had 5 years there and that was enough for us.

I also pay approx 110,000 a year for my own health cover over here which is only .03% of my total net worth. So yes one could say I planed for my retirement here. Many arrive on a wing and a prayer and just wing it.

So I do not think with the increased middle class you predict that it will have much of a financial effect on us that is if I am still alive by then.

Just my 2 bhats worth to add to this discussion.

I know many Thais live here on 300 baht daily so it's hard not to afford to live here. Legally is another story.

The poll is just for wage earners and retirees.

I was a wage earner back in my country and now I run my own business. Very different.

I also pay approx 110,000 a year for my own health cover over here which is only .03% of my total net worth. So yes one could say I planed for my retirement here. Many arrive on a wing and a prayer and just wing it.

Which is an interesting point, as have heard many times by the TV faithful that once your over 60 you can get medical insurance in Thailand...it appears you are a Kiwi, am I correct in saying that New Zealand has an NHS type system ?, therefore you recognised you would need private medical insurance and factored it into your retirement plans when moving to Thailand ?...good for you

So it would appear those who say they cant get medical insurance in Thailand, should in fact be saying they dont want to pay for medical insurance ?....which is a very short sighted and irresponsible way of setting themselves up in a foreign country and not have recourse to free medical treatment

I know many Thais live here on 300 baht daily so it's hard not to afford to live here. Legally is another story.

And do you think said Thai's are happy living on THB 300/day ?...just because someone has to do it, doesnt mean they are happy about it, if you said to them I will give you THB 1000/day do you think they will say no thanks I will stick with the THB 300/day...

Think we are into the argument of living versus surviving...

The poll is just for wage earners and retirees.

I was a wage earner back in my country and now I run my own business. Very different.

not really you still pay yourself a wage dont you ? or was the thrust of your post more to do with trying say your better than a retiree or wage eaner ?

The poll is just for wage earners and retirees.

I was a wage earner back in my country and now I run my own business. Very different.

not really you still pay yourself a wage dont you ? or was the thrust of your post more to do with trying say your better than a retiree or wage eaner ?

No, I don't pay myself a wage - each month's profit goes into my pocket.

Sometimes more, sometimes less. Then I got to pay my costs. Sometimes the profit is not enough and I make a net loss.

Very different from getting a pension or a wage.

Don't know if it should be considered "better" in general, but I prefer to run a business because I have the prospect/hope to make more money in future and I have direct influence on that, whereas pensioners and salarymen have no or little influence on what they earn.

Not that I'm always successful in making more - the crisis hit me too - but hope dies last.

Edited April 23, 201313 yr by manarak

I had to limit the poll for ease of use.......if you are a business owner in Thailand then just answer the third question. The question of whether your income is above, below or sufficient for your needs in Thailand should catch everyone in the net, assuming you derive your income from Thailand. .

For me it's a case of I love Thailand but Im happiest living in the wife's village. It's well within my cost of living and that means I don't stess, it means an early retirement with any luck.

Really matters little what one makes, its what one has managed to keep (assets).

California is full of high flyers who spend a lifetime in the red by design.

Many pensions are bound to blow up in the future as well. Many guys do not have much of a nest egg but a nice pension. Sorry guys.

Banks are not done imploding in EU, look at Ireland

Banksters in US are at it again, big 5 banks insolvent, stock market bubble and QE#X

Metals could fall 30-50%

In US paying for Veterans services is 20% of the budget

Teachers mske less than trash collectors, what is the point of this?

I also pay approx 110,000 a year for my own health cover over here which is only .03% of my total net worth. So yes one could say I planed for my retirement here. Many arrive on a wing and a prayer and just wing it.

Which is an interesting point, as have heard many times by the TV faithful that once your over 60 you can get medical insurance in Thailand...it appears you are a Kiwi, am I correct in saying that New Zealand has an NHS type system ?, therefore you recognised you would need private medical insurance and factored it into your retirement plans when moving to Thailand ?...good for youSo it would appear those who say they cant get medical insurance in Thailand, should in fact be saying they dont want to pay for medical insurance ?....which is a very short sighted and irresponsible way of setting themselves up in a foreign country and not have recourse to free medical treatment

From what I have read here on TV, the older one gets the more difficult buying insurance gets until you ate just not taken under any scheme. Presumably when you are approaching 80 or had your first serious illness or accident. Id tbought Id read as well that if you dont get on some scheme by XX yrs they wont take you at all. Im sure some of this is incorrect, but just wanted to put it iut there.

I disagree on the rise of the Thai middle class being the primary cause of cost inflation for some segments of the real estate market. Do not underestimate the recent large inflow of wealth from China, Russia and the Middle East. On Phuket, the Russian wealthy have skewed the market for luxury homes. The Arabs and even Indians have made a large push in Bangkok and the Chinese have kept a low profile but have bought heavily in the condo market.

I think once the interest rates change in the next few years, a lot of people that purchased homes and condos will be in for a shock and the price of residences will adjust accordingly. We'll see deflation where expensive homes will go for less than the original cost.

I disagree on the rise of the Thai middle class being the primary cause of cost inflation for some segments of the real estate market. Do not underestimate the recent large inflow of wealth from China, Russia and the Middle East. On Phuket, the Russian wealthy have skewed the market for luxury homes. The Arabs and even Indians have made a large push in Bangkok and the Chinese have kept a low profile but have bought heavily in the condo market.

I think once the interest rates change in the next few years, a lot of people that purchased homes and condos will be in for a shock and the price of residences will adjust accordingly. We'll see deflation where expensive homes will go for less than the original cost.

There will be spikes in certain areas but those spikes are as nothing compared to the indigenous population growing in wealth. There is a growing middle class consuming far more than before.

I also pay approx 110,000 a year for my own health cover over here which is only .03% of my total net worth. So yes one could say I planed for my retirement here. Many arrive on a wing and a prayer and just wing it.

Which is an interesting point, as have heard many times by the TV faithful that once your over 60 you can get medical insurance in Thailand...it appears you are a Kiwi, am I correct in saying that New Zealand has an NHS type system ?, therefore you recognised you would need private medical insurance and factored it into your retirement plans when moving to Thailand ?...good for you

Yes new Zealand has a NHS type system but I also took out private cover when I lived there for I did not want to have to wait upto 6 months for any urgent stuff . Also on a side issue I paid my taxers for over 40+ years but I do not get there government super for if you are out of the country more than 6 months one has it stopped. I also think think this will happen in many other nanny state counties in the not so distant future.