High Risk Of More Coups In Thailand, Study Says

[webfact]

High risk of more coups in Thailand, study says

BANGKOK: -- Thailand, which has experienced 18 successful coups since 1932, remains "high-risk" to more, the co-author of a new book on democratization in Asia said Thursday.

"The more coups in the past, the more likely coups will take place in the future, so Thailand is a high-risk, coup-prone country," said Aurel Croissant, a co-author of the recently published Democratization and Civilian Control in Asia.

The book ranked Thailand fifth worldwide in terms of the number of coups staged between 1946 and 2010. Ecuador came first, followed by Bolivia and Syria.

Speaking in Bangkok, Croissant said the three factors that made Thailand vulnerable to more coups included the lack of a strong civil society, legitimacy questions about the existing government and "a lot of coups in the past."

The seven countries researched for the book were Bangladesh,I ndonesia, Pakistan, Philippians, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.


-- The Nation 2013-05-09

[gl555]

If this present government tries to control the judiciary and whitewash the [snip] from Dubai, not to mention become a dictatorship, you're damn right there's a high risk of another coup!

[Thai at Heart]

Past performance is not guarantee of future returns.....

Except when it comes to coups in Thailand. Whether its next week, month or year, you just know it is coming sometime. Why? Because they get away with it. Simple really

[sjjmmi]

Bring on the Tanks then

[Jingthing]

Nobody ever went broke betting on more coups to come in Thailand ...

[Stradavarius37]

Maybe, maybe not.

Past Performance is not an Indicator of Future Results

[Mr Red]

Where is "Philippians" ? Suspect Philippines, but newspaper should proofread better.

As for coup, I fully expect one here before end of this year. Too many problems ahead with no solutions.

[bubblegum]

Mr. Croissant do I eat you with Jam or cheese ? The top 3 are not in your book ??

[Jingthing]

Many Thais love the smell of a fresh coup in the morning too mutt.

[dcutman]

The reason for so many coups here in Thailand is because the coup makers dont perform them properly. Take the last one for example. If you dont want ghosts to come back to haunt you, bloodless coups are NOT the way to go.

[webfact]

Civilian oversight of military a long way off, expert says
Pravit Rojanaphruk
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Thailand remains among those countries that have failed to institutionalise civilian control over the military, according to an expert on the military's role in Asia.

Professor Aurel Croissant, co-author of the new book "Democratization and Civilian Control in Asia", said Thailand ranks fifth the world in terms of having the most number of military coups - 18 "successful" over the past eight decades.

Comparing Thailand to Pakistan, Croissant, who teaches political science at Heidelberg University in Germany, said the risk of a putsch remains high.

"Thailand is a high-risk coup-prone country," he said Thursday at a public forum on democratic control of the military, organised by Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES).

Croissant predicted it will be a long time before Thailand can achieve genuine civilian control over the military. It will depend on not just the military refraining from getting involved in politics but also on strong civilian support and consensus that civilians should have oversight of the military.

"There's no consensus on that they will not pull the military into political conflicts," said Croissant, who jointly conducted research on the topic over four years in which more than 180 people in the Kingdom were interviewed.

Croissant said the military's power can be exerted not just through the staging of coups d'etat but also through influence over the government's decision-making processes. The lack of coups doesn't automatically mean that civilian oversight exists, he said. "The military can exercise control over policy because democracy is weak."

However, unlike conventional wisdom, the German professor sees the September 19, 2006 coup as a sign of the army's "eroding military control" over Thai politics and society.

He added that there are three factors that contribute to coup risks - the strengths or weaknesses of civil society, the strength of legitimacy of the political regime and the frequency of military coups in the past.

"[The Army] has a learning curve and learns how to conduct a coup," Croissant said.


-- The Nation 2013-05-09

[chainarong]

The sovereign risk factor is high at the moment ,that's for sure, the general direction this present government is taking is a direct copy of the Thaksin governments downfall, fiddling around with the independent judiciary , nosing around the finance area, freedom of speech , big loan raising outside the normal channels, the general contemptuous manner of the PTP Party and it's followers are sending strong messages to outsiders that there will be a coup, this time though there wont be any roses for the tank crews and it wont take them four days to find the treasury building.

[Markaew]

Civilian oversight of military a long way off, expert says

There is civilian oversight of the military now. It's just not official.

Do you really believe the military operates independently? Not.

[Soutpeel]

Maybe, maybe not.

Past Performance is not an Indicator of Future Results

But we could quote the definition of insanity...repeating the same actions over and over and expecting a different outcome

[Thai at Heart]

Civilian oversight of military a long way off, expert says

There is civilian oversight of the military now. It's just not official.

Do you really believe the military operates independently? Not.

Oh my lord. No, they just operate in their own best interests.

[BrianCR]

I have it from a reliable source (the gardeners mother-in-law who, in turn, is related to someone who shall not be named) that future coups will, by law, only be allowed to take place on a Friday or Monday so giving us "normal people" a long weekend to get over the turbulence of a hard working week! Whilst we are relaxing the Army and the Government will be throwing stones and calling each other bitches, in a time honored Thai tradition.

[ginjag]

Past performance is not guarantee of future returns.....

Except when it comes to coups in Thailand. Whether its next week, month or year, you just know it is coming sometime. Why? Because they get away with it. Simple really

Maybe the ones in power should TRY to THINK before bludgening their way through in dictatorial fashion.

concentrate on running a non corrupt government. If you don't have the army, OR any other way to halt the slime, what would then happen ????

[JetsetBkk]

Nothing new here. Move along please.

[GentlemanJim]

A new study says that NGO's in Thailand who are commissioned to undertake studies are ranked first in the world for stating the bleeding obvious.

[Thai at Heart]

Past performance is not guarantee of future returns.....

Except when it comes to coups in Thailand. Whether its next week, month or year, you just know it is coming sometime. Why? Because they get away with it. Simple really

Maybe the ones in power should TRY to THINK before bludgening their way through in dictatorial fashion.

concentrate on running a non corrupt government. If you don't have the army, OR any other way to halt the slime, what would then happen ????

Maybe after 18 attempts the army would find a way to write a constitution so well written that NO sides of the political agenda can modify it quite so easily.

I.e. super majority.

[Scott]

If I had two wishes they would be:

That the US government stopped invading countries and that Thailand stopped having coups.

[Robby nz]

I sure hope not for it would be nothing like last time if it does happen.

As I have posted before Thaksin now has his armed faction in place, something that not part of the equasion last time.

I would suspect they already have targets identified and are ready to go and Farang could well be part of those targets, so be careful what you wish for.

It could even be part of the master plan to create a coup that leads to civil war in order that he can return as savior.

I doubt that the present army chief would be the one to start a coup as he seems to talk sense.

However as history shows it is not always the head of armys that starts coups but subiordinate officers so the possibility is always there.

[Robby nz]

If I had two wishes they would be:

That the US government stopped invading countries and that Thailand stopped having coups.

Can identify with that Scott but think there is more chance of the latter than the former.

[lungmi]

I smell the coup. But more a smell the coup I think there will be no coup.

[tingtongfarang]

If I had two wishes they would be:

That the US government stopped invading countries and that Thailand stopped having coups.

As a non american i dont find america invading other countries so embarrassing, On the other hand regarding your second wish the last coup in thailand came as a breath of fresh air...i would rather corrupt governments stopped making coups necassary.

[jbrain]

The book ranked Thailand fifth worldwide in terms of the number of coups staged between 1946 and 2010.

Finally they have a hub.

[bunnaag]

Dont talk so much about it get on with it

[SteeleJoe]

If I had two wishes they would be:

That the US government stopped invading countries and that Thailand stopped having coups.

Hey, how about if the US invaded Thailand to stop them having coups?!

Never mind...

[jellydog]

Not wishing for one, but if they don't institute a way to slow down the baht...

[thomash]

If I had two wishes they would be:

That the US government stopped invading countries and that Thailand stopped having coups.

Don't hold your breath!