Thai Govt's Rice Pledging Scheme To Be Evaluated

[waza]

Somebody help me with these numbers. They are too big for me. GDP next year according to IMF 13967.77 billions Thai Baht. What percent of the GDP is the rice pledging scheme going to cost?

GDP is something totally different from tax income.. did you not know that ?

No reason to compare it to GDP more interesting to compare it to tax income.

The Tax revenue (% of GDP) in Thailand was last reported at 15.97 in 2010, according to a World Bank report published in 2012. That makes the rice scam costs at 33% of the tax receipts, as reported in 2010.

The total budget for 2013 is 2,4 trillion Baht (2,400,000,000,000) [$77 billion] and has been earmarked for the following:

That would make the rice scam 16 -20% of budget, that's more than they spend on Interior and National Security, Defence, Housing and Community, Religion, Culture and Recreation all combined

Edited May 13, 2013 by waza

[waza]

I am confused by the GDP numbers here. See we have two systems. In America a trillion is 10 to the 12th power. In British system a trillion is 10 to the 18th power. So you can see why I am confused cause there a lot of Brits here. So what is the Thai system and what percent of the GDP is the total cost of the loss of the rice pledging system. Since the American and British numbering systems are different you can see why I would want it as a percent of GDP.

I mean really how can one discuss the rice pledging scheme unless one knows how much money will be lost by the scheme?

Rice stockpiles have reached record highs of over 12.5 million tons, and the cost of procurement, handling and storage is likely to cause a loss equivalent

to 5% of its GDP, he adds............He also revealed that the mortagage scheme has fueled corruption in Thaialand. Rice millers – many who have links with members of the ruling party – often do not pass on the entire benefit to farmers.

Here this makes it easy to calculate

So what is the number?

5% of its GDP is the annual running costs, the monetary amount of the true losses can only be calculated when the scam is over.

Edited May 13, 2013 by waza

[robblok]

<p>2.100.000.000.000 income</p>

<p> 500.000.000.000 the 500 billion talked about</p>

<p> </p>

<p>makes it around 25% of the budget not bad</p>

<p> </p>

<p><a href="http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6168&a=2">http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6168&a=2</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p>for thailands tax income in and budget.. 2012.. Just fo Chaing Mai.. its huge part of the budget.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p>see waza was faster.. but now we got from 2 sources information.</p>

Edited May 13, 2013 by robblok

[chiangmaikelly]

Somebody help me with these numbers. They are too big for me. GDP next year according to IMF 13967.77 billions Thai Baht. What percent of the GDP is the rice pledging scheme going to cost?

GDP is something totally different from tax income.. did you not know that ?

No reason to compare it to GDP more interesting to compare it to tax income.

The total budget for 2013 is 2,4 trillion Baht (2,400,000,000,000) [$77 billion] and has been earmarked for the following:

basegraph-eng.png

That would make the rice scam 16 -20% of budget, that's more than they spend on Interior and National Security, Defence, Housing and Community, Religion, Culture and Recreation all combined

My calculator died. So what is the amount of baht that makes up 5% of of the GDP.

[chiangmaikelly]

<p>2.100.000.000.000 income</p>

<p> 500.000.000.000 the 500 billion talked about</p>

<p> </p>

<p>makes it around 25% of the budget not bad</p>

<p> </p>

<p><a href="http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6168&a=2">http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6168&a=2</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p>for thailands tax income in and budget.. 2012.. Just fo Chaing Mai.. its huge part of the budget.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p>see waza was faster.. but now we got from 2 sources information.</p>

Like I said my calculator died but isn't 5% of one trillion 50 billion?

[robblok]

<p>2.100.000.000.000 income</p>

<p> 500.000.000.000 the 500 billion talked about</p>

<p> </p>

<p>makes it around 25% of the budget not bad</p>

<p> </p>

<p><a href="http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6168&a=2">http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6168&a=2</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p>for thailands tax income in and budget.. 2012.. Just fo Chaing Mai.. its huge part of the budget.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p>see waza was faster.. but now we got from 2 sources information.</p>

Like I said my calculator died but isn't 5% of one trillion 50 billion?

Yes it is but they are talking here about 500 billion and income in the 2 or so.. else it would be even worse.

[MaxLee]

Rice pledging scheme to be evaluated = EPIC FAIL

Edited May 13, 2013 by metisdead
Overly large and bold font reset to normal.

[whybother]

I am confused by the GDP numbers here. See we have two systems. In America a trillion is 10 to the 12th power. In British system a trillion is 10 to the 18th power. So you can see why I am confused cause there a lot of Brits here. So what is the Thai system and what percent of the GDP is the total cost of the loss of the rice pledging system. Since the American and British numbering systems are different you can see why I would want it as a percent of GDP.

I mean really how can one discuss the rice pledging scheme unless one knows how much money will be lost by the scheme?

Rice stockpiles have reached record highs of over 12.5 million tons, and the cost of procurement, handling and storage is likely to cause a loss equivalent

to 5% of its GDP, he adds............He also revealed that the mortagage scheme has fueled corruption in Thaialand. Rice millers – many who have links with members of the ruling party – often do not pass on the entire benefit to farmers.

Here this makes it easy to calculate

So what is the number?

First you want to see at as percentage, because the numbers are confusing, then when you're given the percentage, you want to see it as a number.

Make up your mind.

[bigbamboo]

I am at a complete LOSS as to what went wrong , everything was in place , this was a terrific idea, I think it got lost in the detail, and now the Tha Bht has gone bonkers, the finance department should have told us more , T.S Dubai.

Why is it you only seem to succeed at businesses where you have a monopoly, Mr T...?

[waza]

Because what is easy for me seems difficult for you. I am convinced no one knows how much the rice scheme will cost. You all seem to think you know.

If you think we don't get it (not that I have been trying to get it), then educate us. It's pointless just saying "You're wrong" unless you can explain why.

He is a troll and he is just baiting other posters, it clearly states in the OP what this scam has cost.............."He said that the subcommittee would also discuss the Commerce Ministry's plans to pay back the Bt500 billion loan it borrowed from BAAC to run the pledging scheme. Most of those funds had now been spent on the scheme, he noted."

As this scam is ongoing and doesn't have a budget its anyone's guess what the final cost will be and how much of that money is lost.

Edited May 13, 2013 by waza

[rubl]

For two years now the government has earmarked THB 400 billion of the National Budget for price pledging. That's two years in a row around 18% of the national budget. That's around the same amount as the budget for the Ministry of Education. Now that suggests a lot about the importance of one and the other.

Of course all this money throwing by the government helps the GDP and that good I've heard some say :-)

[slapout]

Your trying to follow a money trail from numbers alluded to, which do not agree to what has been bandied around since this scam started. There are groups involved that are not even aware of what they are suspose to be looking for (Policemen at mill site, government gophers checking storage sites, etc) are just two of the examples. You have 3 years of paddy being referred to and this government has not been in office one and a half year. Paddy and milled rice amounts estimated in storage have varied by 50% depending on whose group is throwing out figures. The support price was proposed to be cut without any mention of which rice they were referring to, then you look at the cost/ton to buy, mill and store rice and figures are so varied, they seem to come out of a magicians hat.

You think the politicans involved in funding/handling the money disbursment, got their wealth from the national coffers by being dummies. These are professional thieves/scam artists who have years of learning how to fleece a country to a level that it can exist (just barely) so the next group in office can continue the tradition of "rampant corruption".

[AleG]

Your trying to follow a money trail from numbers alluded to, which do not agree to what has been bandied around since this scam started. There are groups involved that are not even aware of what they are suspose to be looking for (Policemen at mill site, government gophers checking storage sites, etc) are just two of the examples. You have 3 years of paddy being referred to and this government has not been in office one and a half year. Paddy and milled rice amounts estimated in storage have varied by 50% depending on whose group is throwing out figures. The support price was proposed to be cut without any mention of which rice they were referring to, then you look at the cost/ton to buy, mill and store rice and figures are so varied, they seem to come out of a magicians hat.

You think the politicans involved in funding/handling the money disbursment, got their wealth from the national coffers by being dummies. These are professional thieves/scam artists who have years of learning how to fleece a country to a level that it can exist (just barely) so the next group in office can continue the tradition of "rampant corruption".

Well, that's PTP transparency in action.

Public Money + No Transparency + No accountability = Corruption.

[Baerboxer]

I am confused by the GDP numbers here. See we have two systems. In America a trillion is 10 to the 12th power. In British system a trillion is 10 to the 18th power. So you can see why I am confused cause there a lot of Brits here. So what is the Thai system and what percent of the GDP is the total cost of the loss of the rice pledging system. Since the American and British numbering systems are different you can see why I would want it as a percent of GDP.

I mean really how can one discuss the rice pledging scheme unless one knows how much money will be lost by the scheme?

Rice stockpiles have reached record highs of over 12.5 million tons, and the cost of procurement, handling and storage is likely to cause a loss equivalent

to 5% of its GDP, he adds............He also revealed that the mortagage scheme has fueled corruption in Thaialand. Rice millers – many who have links with members of the ruling party – often do not pass on the entire benefit to farmers.

Here this makes it easy to calculate

What a wheeze! Buy votes by promising to pay farmers a guaranteed high price for rice. Then make sure we scam most of the money for ourselves. We can keep this going for a few years and salt billions away. The idiots will believe any ridiculous reasons we give them. Wonder who dreamed this up then

[Baerboxer]

Your trying to follow a money trail from numbers alluded to, which do not agree to what has been bandied around since this scam started. There are groups involved that are not even aware of what they are suspose to be looking for (Policemen at mill site, government gophers checking storage sites, etc) are just two of the examples. You have 3 years of paddy being referred to and this government has not been in office one and a half year. Paddy and milled rice amounts estimated in storage have varied by 50% depending on whose group is throwing out figures. The support price was proposed to be cut without any mention of which rice they were referring to, then you look at the cost/ton to buy, mill and store rice and figures are so varied, they seem to come out of a magicians hat.

You think the politicans involved in funding/handling the money disbursment, got their wealth from the national coffers by being dummies. These are professional thieves/scam artists who have years of learning how to fleece a country to a level that it can exist (just barely) so the next group in office can continue the tradition of "rampant corruption".

Well, that's PTP transparency in action.

Public Money + No Transparency + No accountability = Corruption.

Yes, but think how much public money you will save by getting rid of all those pesky types who do the checks and balances. That's the beauty of being democratically elected to power - you can do what you want. Rice pledging, just wait till the 2.2trillion is here!

[chiangmaikelly]

chiangmaikelly, on 13 May 2013 - 14:17, said:

You boys are being too rough on me. I just asked a simple question. If there are 1000 billions in a trillion and the Thai GDP is going to be, what this year, about 5 trillion baht? So, what percent is the rice pledging scheme going to cost. I am sure you all are better at arithmetic than I. ______ Thai baht = % GDP rice pledging. 1 to 3% probably gets by. More than 3%'s not going to fly.

The GDP is the value of business that goes on in the country isn't it? It isn't the amount of money that the government has available. Even then 1-3% of GDP going on ONE scheme!

My point was that numbers are reported in the financial press as a percent of GDP. 1 to 3 never gets anyone excited. Above 3 and 5 begin to draw attention to the scheme.

[Robby nz]

The BAAC had better get ready to dig deep into their pockets because :

Thailand's traditional soothsayers predicted an abundance of food production and water during the coming rice growing season in the royal ploughing ceremony, marking the beginning of the planting season on Monday.

Bumper crops this year = bumper payouts.

A good time to build a few more warehouses.

[rubl]

Not that it's really related to the OP but if the GDP would be 5,000 billion Baht and the price pledging budget 400 billion, that would make it about 8% of GDP. Mind you, still counting with only 10 fingers available :-)

[chiangmaikelly]

Not that it's really related to the OP but if the GDP would be 5,000 billion Baht and the price pledging budget 400 billion, that would make it about 8% of GDP. Mind you, still counting with only 10 fingers available :-)

"There are two issues on the cost. The government and the opposition are poles apart on the cost. TDRI puts

the loss in the first year (October 2011-September 2012) at 112 billion baht (counting money spent, revenue received, and also taking into account storage costs and other costs associated with the scheme). The World Bank puts it at 115 billion Baht for the first year, but estimates that for future years it will be up to 140 billion baht.

By comparison, the income support scheme of the Democrats cost around 58 billion Baht over two years according to Korbsak (of the Democrats). According to the current, ie Puea Thai, Commerce Minister the income support scheme cost70-80 billion baht annually. According to Bloomberg, quoting the state-run Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, the scheme cost 67 billion baht in the 2010-2011 production year"

http://asiancorrespondent.com/105941/bloomberg-on-the-pros-and-cons-of-the-rice-pledging-scheme/

Edited May 13, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[rubl]

Budget, costs, profit or loss. In that order.

So two years in a row 400 billion Baht budgeted, no money left, unknown amount of money recovered by selling, profit or loss so clear as to be transparent.

[metisdead]

Argumentative baiting posts have been removed.

[winstonc]

so at the end of the day,the uneducated will still believe there getting a great deal,and the corrupt government carries on filling there bank accounts,sounds good to me,,can i sign up as an independent mp,and promise them free labour,,,,,,

[bigbamboo]

so at the end of the day,the uneducated will still believe there getting a great deal,and the corrupt government carries on filling there bank accounts,sounds good to me,,can i sign up as an independent mp,and promise them free labour,,,,,,

There is no such thing as an independent Pheu Thai government MP.

Edited May 13, 2013 by bigbamboo

[Rich teacher]

"Among OECD members (a group of high-income countries), “producer support estimate” rates average about 31 percent of total revenue for the main grain, oilseed, sugar, and livestock products."

"The average support rate in the European Union is about 35 percent of the value of production."

"In wealthy nations such as the United States, farm subsidies, though large in total, are relatively minor political issues for most voters"

"Most governments around the world intervene actively in the operation of their agricultural markets."

Agricultural Price Supports

by Robert L. Thompson

"In 2009, Japan paid USD$46.5 billion in subsidies to its farmers.." Wikipedia

[dcutman]

The small, "poor farmer", that this scheme scam was promised(Yingluck campaign) to help so much (make rich), farms between 5 an 20 rai of land. I believe last year 1.2 million farmers were involved(enrolled). Each rai on average produces about 450kg of paddy. So on average each "poor farmer'' farmed 12 rai of land. 12x450kg = 5.4tons x Bt15000 to Bt20,000 = Bt81,000 to Bt108,000

Many reports have the "poor farmer" increasing yearly profit by 8 to 12% since the start. The TRDI has stated the ''poor farmer" is getting 5% from this scam, where the Millers/merchants are taking 67% of the cut. The rich, high production farmers, supposedly taking the rest.

Just a monthly update on the "poor farmer" that borrowed the 20% down payment from the BAAC for his new Toyota Hillux 4x4 with Bt8000 a month payments for the next 7 years, to take advantage of the Govt's first car buyer scam.

PS.

CMK, it has nothing to do with the countries GDP.

Edited May 13, 2013 by dcutman

[rubl]

It's no problem Thailand goes broke by spending 18% of it's National Budget (8% of it's GDP) on price pledging as other countries spent even more (in absolute terms).

Now that's logic :-)

[Rich teacher]

It's no problem Thailand goes broke by spending 18% of it's National Budget (8% of it's GDP) on price pledging as other countries spent even more (in absolute terms).

Now that's logic :-)

Counting the costs but not accounting for the revenue.

Now that's logic :-)

[robblok]

It's no problem Thailand goes broke by spending 18% of it's National Budget (8% of it's GDP) on price pledging as other countries spent even more (in absolute terms).

Now that's logic :-)

Counting the costs but not accounting for the revenue.

Now that's logic :-)

The revenue is quite clear.. it buys votes and so helps the reds stay in power and rob the country blind.

So for PTP there is a lot of revenue .. for the rice farmers and such too.. but what about the tax payers ?

[dcutman]

"Among OECD members (a group of high-income countries), “producer support estimate” rates average about 31 percent of total revenue for the main grain, oilseed, sugar, and livestock products."

"The average support rate in the European Union is about 35 percent of the value of production."

"In wealthy nations such as the United States, farm subsidies, though large in total, are relatively minor political issues for most voters"

"Most governments around the world intervene actively in the operation of their agricultural markets."

Agricultural Price Supports

by Robert L. Thompson

"In 2009, Japan paid USD$46.5 billion in subsidies to its farmers.." Wikipedia

Can you compare a country that is a bit closer to Thailand? You are comparing apples to oranges here.

[steveromagnino]

It's no problem Thailand goes broke by spending 18% of it's National Budget (8% of it's GDP) on price pledging as other countries spent even more (in absolute terms).

Now that's logic :-)

Counting the costs but not accounting for the revenue.

Now that's logic :-)

You do understand there is not really any revenue from this rice scheme right?

The farmers earn less than the pledge price; money skimmed back to various people of influence (let's call them the Rice Amartaya). I don't know a single rice farmer earning the pledged amount nor has ANY of the crops grown on my family's land received the pledged amount.

The warehouses overflow and rice is sold basically covering the cost of storage and wastage. But on the flip side, the amount of rice grown has increased, because people switch from high margin high quality rice, to pledge quality low grade rice. In addition, rice is smuggled in from overseas, and also added to the production which is even better, because then you don't have to grow the rice at all, you can get the Cambodians and Laotians to grow it instead.

Also, various 'consultants' can be hired at every step using government money to do investigative buying and selling trips to rice mainstay economies, I hear Paris, London, Dubai and Hong Kong are all popular places to buy Louis Vuitt...I mean to sell rice.

Therefore.... it's all cost, no revenue.

But I really don't see this as a problem.

I think the scheme has great promise, and I don't know why you lot don't seem to like it. As a direct result of this scheme, I am hopeful that one day, perhaps all the rice growing land in Thailand can be left to rot, and instead, we import the world's entire rice supply from abroad, pretend it is Thai, pay top price for it to 'Thai' rice farmers, and then keep it in giant silos, which can be located on the rice growing land since that's not doing anything now. After all, everyone says the world food supply is going to increase to keep pace with the growth in the world population. Let's do our bit to prove that theory wrong, but letting a major staple just rot.

And then once it is all rotten, I think we can move up the value chain. After all, everyone is selling rice to eat! That's old school. that's like rice 1.0. Just like the internet, we need rice 2.0 and rice 3.0. I think rice 2.0 can be rotten putrid rice and we package it in bean bags, and call it 'putrid rice bags' as a new eco furniture. It will be the coolest thing. Please pay me 20m consulting fee to investigate if the Louis Vuitton in Landmark will be interested, you can fly me over first class and I'll stay in The Oriental, and I might accidently meet Dr T.

For rice 3.0, I like to think this will be when putrid rotting rice becomes a way to socially network. I am thinking that humans have facebook. But there are far more cats, rats and dogs, than people in Thailand. So, if we can just create a new social network for cats, rats and dogs, under the new brand name 'Soo-nuk mai dtaek, maew mai yoo, noo rah-rehng' we stand to make all the money back that we lost on the pledging scheme, with google adwords. For cats, rats, and dogs.

Please pay me 50m consulting fee to fly to Dubai, and stay at the One and Only in the Palms, for 'investigative analysis'/

See? We all win, with the rice pledging scheme.