Thailand Withers As Myanmar Rises: Opinion

[hellodolly]

Well, I have breakfast, read this and post, then go to Thailand news to find a correction that April exports are actually down instead of the earlier stated significant rise. This affects Thailand's income and deficits because they collect taxes on this. Thailand is already running big deficits and debt.

Wait until they have no exports from companies run by foreign countries due to manufacturing in Burma. This is the plan.

I bet there is a lot of Shinawatra money going into Myanmar.

[NeverSure]

Well, I have breakfast, read this and post, then go to Thailand news to find a correction that April exports are actually down instead of the earlier stated significant rise. This affects Thailand's income and deficits because they collect taxes on this. Thailand is already running big deficits and debt.

Wait until they have no exports from companies run by foreign countries due to manufacturing in Burma. This is the plan.

I bet there is a lot of Shinawatra money going into Myanmar.

I wonder. I get the impression that the Shinawatra's think that Thailand is the Hub and the future, and besides, they can't collect graft in Myanmar as easily as Thailand. They get their money from graft.

[NeverSure]

Here's a pretty accurate take on the Burma situation. Japan is the front man, with a few comments negative to Thailand from both Japan and the US and the snubbing of Thailand for a port, but the US is backing it. Please read the whole.

Why Myanmar Matters to the USA

Thursday, 30 May 2013 10:26 Mizzima News

"EDITORIAL—US President Barack Obama’s keenness to embrace Myanmar has less to do with cuddling democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and more to do with money, natural resources and the dragon that lurks on the country’s northern border. The landmark official visit by President Thein Sein last week to Washington to shake hands with the American leader and discuss developments in Myanmar is yet another sign that the embrace is getting tighter. But there is more to America’s new love affair than meets the eye.

More...

[NeverSure]

Has it occurred to anyone else why the auto manufactures in Thailand don't gear up to meet demand? Why it can take up to a year to order and get a new Ford Ranger in some editions?

Could it be that they never intend to increase production, that exporting is more profitable than local sales due to taxes, and that in the end they are satisfied to stay as they are planning to move export production?

They will. To Burma.

[LawrenceChee]

From an economic perspective there is no denying the potential of Myanmar in many areas for this region.

It's a true powerhouse when it comes to natural resources next to Indonesia in terms of gas , oil wood and minerals and jade.

In terms of infrastructure, Japan USA China are all keen to be active partners although I suspect in the end the full package offered by the Chinese will prevail

Nice of Japan to forgive the debts and get into the loan structures but I believe the Myanmar govt is looking at a mixed basket strategy rather than one sided alliance which is smart

Never sure - your points are valid although I do not understand your constant bashing of Thailand or China granted I guess you are more a tourist than a long term stayer here.

As for China being evil ...that's a tad silly brush off.

I am Chinese and don't believe they are evil or good...it's a balance when you manage 1.3 billion people where everyone is pissed at a decision you make ...

however the stability they have as governance beats the wishy washy politics of USA which makes zero sense and zero results to show for every term of 4 years.

[Thai at Heart]

Well, I have breakfast, read this and post, then go to Thailand news to find a correction that April exports are actually down instead of the earlier stated significant rise. This affects Thailand's income and deficits because they collect taxes on this. Thailand is already running big deficits and debt.

Wait until they have no exports from companies run by foreign countries due to manufacturing in Burma. This is the plan.

I bet there is a lot of Shinawatra money going into Myanmar.

There is a lot of money from all sorts of Thai families and businesses poised to fly into Burma. Difference is, they won't get quite the same protection as here.

[chiangmaikelly]

Thailand is already running big deficits and debt.

Compared to whom?

[chiangmaikelly]

Has it occurred to anyone else why the auto manufactures in Thailand don't gear up to meet demand? Why it can take up to a year to order and get a new Ford Ranger in some editions?

Could it be that they never intend to increase production, that exporting is more profitable than local sales due to taxes, and that in the end they are satisfied to stay as they are planning to move export production?

They will. To Burma.

1. Do you know how long it takes to change a production line? 2. News to me that taxes were paid to auto companies maybe you could link that.

[chiangmaikelly]

Well, I have breakfast, read this and post, then go to Thailand news to find a correction that April exports are actually down instead of the earlier stated significant rise. This affects Thailand's income and deficits because they collect taxes on this. Thailand is already running big deficits and debt.

Wait until they have no exports from companies run by foreign countries due to manufacturing in Burma. This is the plan.

I bet there is a lot of Shinawatra money going into Myanmar.

I wonder. I get the impression that the Shinawatra's think that Thailand is the Hub and the future, and besides, they can't collect graft in Myanmar as easily as Thailand. They get their money from graft.

You are right there. Burma is a lot easier to collect graft and more corrupt. Burma ranks 172 close to Somalia and North Korea

http://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/results

Thailand is 88. Not good but a whole lot better than Burma.

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Thai at Heart]

Has it occurred to anyone else why the auto manufactures in Thailand don't gear up to meet demand? Why it can take up to a year to order and get a new Ford Ranger in some editions?

Could it be that they never intend to increase production, that exporting is more profitable than local sales due to taxes, and that in the end they are satisfied to stay as they are planning to move export production?

They will. To Burma.

For European shipments feasible and have the Thai operations supply ASEAN, USA and Australia.

[ray23]

Do3es anyone know a vehicle that exists today for investing in Myramar?

I would look into Italian Thai Development PCL. Of course their company is completely Thai managed and uses all Thai engineers since 1981 I think. But I'm sure there are many Burma experts posting here who know more about it than I.

Burma I know about yet, But, some Thai stocks I do. I would suggest you look very very very close at the fundamentals of ITD. At my last look it was heavily indebted. I sold it's stake in the Lao generation organization. To my knowledge has never paid a dividend.

It was chasing money to continue on with the deep water port. This company has been around for years. I Haven't looked in sometime so it may be better the sliced bread these days. I really recommend you do your research on this one.

Never do what I say use your own judgement, this is from the SET today, the o price is currently falling

It has a P/E in the 57 range, to me that is insane a point of entry. Still has never paid a dividend. Be very careful with this one.

One thing that Myramar has that Thailand doesn't have is natural gas all of it is currently imported from Myrammar I believe PTT has a big stake in that.

Edited June 1, 2013 by ray23

[ray23]

Never sure just few comment about your post. You would be hard pressed to find a lazy Thai in Issan during rice harvest. That is what they know. Yes they throw trash all over the place.

I went into the SET when the last shots were being fired in Bangkok, The set was in the 600 range, since then it has hit 1600. I felt the market was overheating and sold out Investors apparently care less about trash on the ground when there is a buck to be made.

Hedge funds moved heavily into Thailand both is stocks and bonds, caused the baht to appreciate by 6% since the first of the year, we are just now getting some of that back. Yes Thai's can be arrogant, the BOT was warned numerous times that the baht was to high. They didn't listen till last week.

Thai's Lazy and lack direction, really depends who their boss is. If you don't speak Thai more then likely you are not going to be happy with their work performance. Does that make lazy. No makes them human taking the path of least resistance.

The danger all along has been the hot money finding a new place to get better bang out of the buck. At the moment that could be Vietnam But, more the likely it will be Myramar.

I have lived in Udon for the past eleven years. I think you are applying western thought to an eastern culture. That won't work, it's all about money and that money will move to the hot market. They could care less about trash or service more then likely they will never set foot on the country.

The Japan auto makers get what they want from Thai workers.

I can understand where your coming from. But, I don't agree that a general statement such a yours. But your thoughts are yours and I respect that.

[chiangmaikelly]

Myanmar, one of Asia's poorest nations, is battling bouts of deadly religious violence which threatens to undermine reforms under a nominally civilian government which replaced military rule two years ago.

The manufacturing sector can add $70 billion to GDP by 2030—a sevenfold increase on today—and overtake agriculture, which currently adds $21.2 billion, as the economy's main driver, the study added.

Myanmar's economy expanded 6.5 percent last year and is set for further modest acceleration, the IMF estimated Wednesday, as sweeping reforms herald hopes of a renaissance for the impoverished nation.

http://www.mizzima.com/business/economy/9438-economy-to-grow-by-675-imf.html

So if the experts are right in about 50 years Burma may have an economy half the size of Thailand. In 50 years I would look at some small investments.

[Scott]

A post has been deleted.

I do grow weary of endless posting about Thaksin and every attempt to bring him into every thread, regardless of how tenuous a link can be made.

[Fletcher]

Do3es anyone know a vehicle that exists today for investing in Myramar?

Ray23,

Do a google for Alisher Ali who has 2 companies Silk Road something, and Mandalay Capital, also there is a company called New Cross Roads Asia, both of whom produce their own list of equities that have relatively significantly Myanmar exposure, and whose share price has benefited (or is partly dependent) on that exposure. Most of the companies are ASEAN based & listed, not actually Myanmar. (In terms of SR & NCRA, their target is institutional investors, but they may put you on their subscriber list if you ask nicely.)

The 2 pure play speculations have been Aussino and Yoma Strategic Holdings both SGP listed. Aussino was a reverse take over target, that rose about 3000% but I think is pretty much back to where it started, as the SGP regulator refused the takeover. Yoma is still a speculative play, call it an option on Myanmar, as it owns development rights more than any actual assets. It's done very well over the last couple of years, and is likely to be a leading equity at some point in the future, once cross border land ownership issues are fully resolved.

The Myanmar stock market will open in 2015, but I suspect that it will be a couple of years before foreign participation is allowed.

Edited June 1, 2013 by Fletcher

[NeverSure]

All of these beliefs that it might take 50 years or whatever for Burma to rise, overlook what the West is doing. So far this year Burma has visited the White House and Obama, and just last Sunday the PM of Japan along with a large delegation of the CEO's of Japan's largest company visited Burma and signed a deal.

The deal is that Japan loaned Burma 504 million dollars for the port. Additionally, they forgave a lot of debt for Burma, bringing the total debt forgiveness to about 5 billion dollars this year.

If it were true that Thailand has zero unemployment, then there's no room to expand in Thailand. Where would the workers come from? Even if major manufacturers wanted to work with the Thai government, would they really want to pay twice the wages they pay in Vietnam, or 6 times what they pay in Burma?

Thailand screwed the pooch by cozying up to China and most recently the leader of Iran. Iran is seen as the biggest threat to the West right now, rushing to develop nukes and promising to use them against Israel and the West. It was right after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Chiang Mai recently for some seminar that everything turned against Thailand. That's when The US made its negative comments as did Japan. Then the PM of Thailand had the nerve to ask Japan for a partnership for a port and not only got rebuffed, but the announcement was immediately made that it would go to Burma.

The West is sick of Thailand's attitude that it is entitled to be the hub, while Thailand makes it expensive and difficult to do business. Burma is the new frontier.

The West is also in a hurry to beat China to Burma, cutting China off from the resources.

When Western money starts pouring into Burma as it soon will, and industrial parks are built, Burma will leave Thailand in its dust. Thailand will be back to a third world rice producer. The West is actually angry with Thailand and is more than willing to teach it a lesson. It's more than willing to show Thailand where its money has really come from.

I'm not even addressing Thailand's massive real estate bubble or the fact that is is, as in 1997 financed by Thai banks who are at risk, or the skyrocketing debt of the Thai consumer.

Thailand makes all of its real money from Western investment, and the West has "had it up to here" with Thailand. There are other, cheaper, more business friendly places to go. Ford Motor is pulling all of its operations out of Australia and at the moment repatriating them. 200,000 more Fords will be made in the US. It's cheaper to manufacture in the US than Australia. If Ford would do that, what will they do to Thailand vs Burma? Japan has made its intentions clear. So has the US. Where does that leave Thailand?

Edited June 1, 2013 by NeverSure

[chiangmaikelly]

If it were true that Thailand has zero unemployment, then there's no room to expand in Thailand. Where would the workers come from? Even if major manufacturers wanted to work with the Thai government, would they really want to pay twice the wages they pay in Vietnam, or 6 times what they pay in Burma?

Lower paid jobs are replaced by Burmese workers and the Thai workers get higher paid jobs in the auto industry. The Burmese know it will be 50 yers before Burma can compete with Thailand and are happy to move to Thailand. That is why Ford, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Nissan and Toyota built new factories in Thailand recently. No one made Ford Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota and Nissan open in Thailand. It is not a war between countries. Japan is not Honda and Ford is not USA. Ford is Ford and Honda is Honda. If Ford and Honda and Nissan wanted to go to Vietnam or Burma they would have already gone. Thai workers are better and the Thai infrastructure is better so Thailand is the largest car manufacturer in SEA today. Past performance always determines future behavior; that's why better college players get more money in the pros than poor performers in college. That is why grads from Oxford make more money than grads from Southeastern Oklahoma State University.

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiangmaikelly]

Thailand makes all of its real money from Western investment,

If you had ever worked or lived in Thailand you would know small things like PTT is one of Thailands largest companies. The company is majority-owned by the Government of Thailand. PTT is also the only company from Thailand that listed in the Fortune Global 500 companies, which ranks 128 among top 500 companies in the world, an improvement of 27 ranks since 2010 according to Fortune magazine in 2011.

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiangmaikelly]

The West is sick of Thailand's attitude that it is entitled to be the hub, while Thailand makes it expensive and difficult to do business. Burma is the new frontier.

Thailand does not really change much over the years. The people in charge of Thailand recently completed the 32nd Cobfra Gold excercise with the USA. I don't think you speak for the West and you know nothing about Thailand except what you read. If you lived and worked in Thailand you would have a better idea of what was going on. 32 years of General to General talks and lunches and bar crawls; not in Burma: in Thailand.

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[ray23]

Myanmar, one of Asia's poorest nations, is battling bouts of deadly religious violence which threatens to undermine reforms under a nominally civilian government which replaced military rule two years ago.

The manufacturing sector can add $70 billion to GDP by 2030—a sevenfold increase on today—and overtake agriculture, which currently adds $21.2 billion, as the economy's main driver, the study added.

Myanmar's economy expanded 6.5 percent last year and is set for further modest acceleration, the IMF estimated Wednesday, as sweeping reforms herald hopes of a renaissance for the impoverished nation.

http://www.mizzima.com/business/economy/9438-economy-to-grow-by-675-imf.html

So if the experts are right in about 50 years Burma may have an economy half the size of Thailand. In 50 years I would look at some small investments.

Your kidding right what Western Country would not kill for a 6.5% Expansion. The Shinawatra family also had investments in Cambodia and probably a lot of other places as well. I will say this they tend to make money where they go.

This would be the wild wild west no doubt about it. But the same could have been said about China not that long ago.

I haven't a chance to research anything as to the business's there and it may be some time before can make a valid decision. But , right now would be a great time to do that research. Before money hits the table.

[chiangmaikelly]

Myanmar, one of Asia's poorest nations, is battling bouts of deadly religious violence which threatens to undermine reforms under a nominally civilian government which replaced military rule two years ago.

The manufacturing sector can add $70 billion to GDP by 2030—a sevenfold increase on today—and overtake agriculture, which currently adds $21.2 billion, as the economy's main driver, the study added.

Myanmar's economy expanded 6.5 percent last year and is set for further modest acceleration, the IMF estimated Wednesday, as sweeping reforms herald hopes of a renaissance for the impoverished nation.

http://www.mizzima.com/business/economy/9438-economy-to-grow-by-675-imf.html

So if the experts are right in about 50 years Burma may have an economy half the size of Thailand. In 50 years I would look at some small investments.

Your kidding right what Western Country would not kill for a 6.5% Expansion. The Shinawatra family also had investments in Cambodia and probably a lot of other places as well. I will say this they tend to make money where they go.

This would be the wild wild west no doubt about it. But the same could have been said about China not that long ago.

I haven't a chance to research anything as to the business's there and it may be some time before can make a valid decision. But , right now would be a great time to do that research. Before money hits the table.

You got time. The problem is they are starting from such a low level. GDP 50 billion I think. That's like MacDonalds sales for 5 years. And who do you trust? A Burmese general or the management of one of the largest companies in the world. Tell the truth. I'll give you a million dollars of bonds who do you want Burma or MacDonalds?

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[NeverSure]

Kelly, you will always defend Thailand not matter the facts. It is some kind of blindness. All I'm doing is telling you the news.

About your PTT: Link

"Overview

Thailand is a net importer of oil and natural gas, although the country is a growing producer of natural gas.

Thailand has limited domestic oil production and reserves, and imports make up a significant portion of the country's oil consumption. Thailand holds large proven reserves of natural gas, and natural gas production has increased substantially over the last few years. However, the country still remains dependent on imports of natural gas to meet growing domestic demand for the fuel."

Thailand has a sizable population, and is a net importer of oil and gas. This big money they make is internal. They won't have the money to buy it if the West pulls its investments out.

You for some reason don't see the impact of Western investment and manufacturing in Thailand, and don't give a thought to what would happen if it was reduced. That amazes me.

Australia and Canada are seeing a pullback of foreign manufacturing as Ford pulls out of Australia, and US and Japanese companis move facilities to Mexico for lower costs. Canada.

I have no clue why you can't imagine that with high costs in Thailand, the same is happening to them.

Geez, Kelly. Global companies go where costs are low, and when countries push the costs up, they leave. The very most current news is that these global companies and worst, the US and Japanese governments are finished with Thailand.

I can't do better than quote you the news. If you don't like it, ignore it to your peril.

The good news for farangs is that when the money pulls out, the cost of living in Thailand will drop. The value of the baht will drop. Just don't have any money in real estate or the stock market. Bring your dollars in after prices drop.

[chiangmaikelly]

Australia and Canada are seeing a pullback of foreign manufacturing as Ford pulls out of Australia, and US and Japanese companis move facilities to Mexico for lower costs. Canada.

Link where Ford is pulling out of Thailand. I don't think this thread is aboutr Australia or Mexico. Ford is building in Thailand. So you are off topic. This thread is about Burma and Thailand.

[chiangmaikelly]

The very most current news is that these global companies and worst, the US and Japanese governments are finished with Thailand.

Link what companies are pullng out of Thailand. Not happening. Foreign investment recently is at an all time high.

[ray23]

Kelly I understand where you are going from. But a lot of money is coming out of the SET and it's going somewhere. My Guess is Myramar. So that 50 billion number may or may not hold long.

The only reason I made money in the set, going in at 600. No one wanted to get into the SET to much violence in the streets. But as the last shots were being fired I became an investor and knew nothing about it. Hooked up with an adviser in the Phucket area. Made friends along the way and we shared information and thoughts, I read everything I could get my hands on about investing, Graham, Buffett, the dummy books. I lived on the computer learning and doing the research on companies. Learned what to look for in a company. Learned Candle stick charting. Technical Analysis.

In the end I made money not because of what I learned but my timing going in. Believe me SET drops back to 600 I'm jumping in. Was there lies going around fake accounting, graft oh heck yes. But I, still made money. In those days it was the wild wild west as much a anywhere else. To check a company I used five different sources. Many outside of Thailand.

At the moment I know there is a MOU between the Thai Set and Myramar What it says I'm not sure.

I believe I have sometime to watch developments and see what I will do. My risk appetite is never anymore then I can afford to lose without changing my life style. So if I make money whoopee. I lose next. I do things on a monthly basis, so ther will never be a huge hunk going down the tubes

The set here was long over due for a correction, that would not happen without western money going out of the system. The finanace minister was begging the BOT to adjust it's policies as the baht got out of hand. It didn't listen. The Fed make it;s announcement then they reduce the interest rates. That to me was arrogant, in that sometimes Thailand over exagerates it's importance in the world and they believe it.

That thought process led to the 97 crash. You wanted to be rich that was the time to buy Thailand not when it is over priced. All the ingredients are here for a crash again. Will it happen i don't know. But, if it does that is where my money is going.

Back log on vehicle sales tow things the vehicles are exported and the first time buyer plan. Honda is building big bikes her now, just bought one for half what I would have had to pay for an import.

Thailand is not dead, the question is will it see the growth it did after 2008. The way things are now I don't believe so.

I wont do a thing until I'm confident I have done the proper research. So would I take Mcdonald's or Myramar. I'm to late on Mcdonald's The potential of growth is not the same.

[chiangmaikelly]

Kelly I understand where you are going from. But a lot of money is coming out of the SET and it's going somewhere. My Guess is Myramar. So that 50 billion number may or may not hold long.

The only reason I made money in the set, going in at 600. No one wanted to get into the SET to much violence in the streets. But as the last shots were being fired I became an investor and knew nothing about it. Hooked up with an adviser in the Phucket area. Made friends along the way and we shared information and thoughts, I read everything I could get my hands on about investing, Graham, Buffett, the dummy books. I lived on the computer learning and doing the research on companies. Learned what to look for in a company. Learned Candle stick charting. Technical Analysis.

In the end I made money not because of what I learned but my timing going in. Believe me SET drops back to 600 I'm jumping in. Was there lies going around fake accounting, graft oh heck yes. But I, still made money. In those days it was the wild wild west as much a anywhere else. To check a company I used five different sources. Many outside of Thailand.

At the moment I know there is a MOU between the Thai Set and Myramar What it says I'm not sure.

I believe I have sometime to watch developments and see what I will do. My risk appetite is never anymore then I can afford to lose without changing my life style. So if I make money whoopee. I lose next. I do things on a monthly basis, so ther will never be a huge hunk going down the tubes

The set here was long over due for a correction, that would not happen without western money going out of the system. The finanace minister was begging the BOT to adjust it's policies as the baht got out of hand. It didn't listen. The Fed make it;s announcement then they reduce the interest rates. That to me was arrogant, in that sometimes Thailand over exagerates it's importance in the world and they believe it.

That thought process led to the 97 crash. You wanted to be rich that was the time to buy Thailand not when it is over priced. All the ingredients are here for a crash again. Will it happen i don't know. But, if it does that is where my money is going.

Back log on vehicle sales tow things the vehicles are exported and the first time buyer plan. Honda is building big bikes her now, just bought one for half what I would have had to pay for an import.

Thailand is not dead, the question is will it see the growth it did after 2008. The way things are now I don't believe so.

I wont do a thing until I'm confident I have done the proper research. So would I take Mcdonald's or Myramar. I'm to late on Mcdonald's The potential of growth is not the same.

The U.S.-based company plans to expand its Chinese operations to 2,000 stores by 2013, up from its current 1,300, according to a McDonald's spokeswoman, Betty Tian. It will also hire 50,000 new employees, including 1,000 university graduates for management-training positions.

"McDonald's is expanding faster in China than in any other market in the world," Kenneth Chan, chief executive of McDonald's China, said in a written statement.

You would really invest in Burma?

Edited June 1, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Publicus]

All of these beliefs that it might take 50 years or whatever for Burma to rise, overlook what the West is doing. So far this year Burma has visited the White House and Obama, and just last Sunday the PM of Japan along with a large delegation of the CEO's of Japan's largest company visited Burma and signed a deal.

The deal is that Japan loaned Burma 504 million dollars for the port. Additionally, they forgave a lot of debt for Burma, bringing the total debt forgiveness to about 5 billion dollars this year.

If it were true that Thailand has zero unemployment, then there's no room to expand in Thailand. Where would the workers come from? Even if major manufacturers wanted to work with the Thai government, would they really want to pay twice the wages they pay in Vietnam, or 6 times what they pay in Burma?

Thailand screwed the pooch by cozying up to China and most recently the leader of Iran. Iran is seen as the biggest threat to the West right now, rushing to develop nukes and promising to use them against Israel and the West. It was right after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Chiang Mai recently for some seminar that everything turned against Thailand. That's when The US made its negative comments as did Japan. Then the PM of Thailand had the nerve to ask Japan for a partnership for a port and not only got rebuffed, but the announcement was immediately made that it would go to Burma.

The West is sick of Thailand's attitude that it is entitled to be the hub, while Thailand makes it expensive and difficult to do business. Burma is the new frontier.

The West is also in a hurry to beat China to Burma, cutting China off from the resources.

When Western money starts pouring into Burma as it soon will, and industrial parks are built, Burma will leave Thailand in its dust. Thailand will be back to a third world rice producer. The West is actually angry with Thailand and is more than willing to teach it a lesson. It's more than willing to show Thailand where its money has really come from.

I'm not even addressing Thailand's massive real estate bubble or the fact that is is, as in 1997 financed by Thai banks who are at risk, or the skyrocketing debt of the Thai consumer.

Thailand makes all of its real money from Western investment, and the West has "had it up to here" with Thailand. There are other, cheaper, more business friendly places to go. Ford Motor is pulling all of its operations out of Australia and at the moment repatriating them. 200,000 more Fords will be made in the US. It's cheaper to manufacture in the US than Australia. If Ford would do that, what will they do to Thailand vs Burma? Japan has made its intentions clear. So has the US. Where does that leave Thailand?

You provide a perspective that expats and chang here cannot. I share your perspective, although I can easily understand why the expats who are invested here in so many ways, personally or professionally, but certainly financially, cannot.

Thais are smug and self-satisfied. They haven't any awareness of such a dangerous and often fatal flaw, hubris. Thais are so used to fahlang coming here to them, they can't see the forest from the trees. Soon it won't matter because both the forest and the trees will be gone. Thais will be left bewildered - and broke.

[Thai at Heart]

All of these beliefs that it might take 50 years or whatever for Burma to rise, overlook what the West is doing. So far this year Burma has visited the White House and Obama, and just last Sunday the PM of Japan along with a large delegation of the CEO's of Japan's largest company visited Burma and signed a deal.

The deal is that Japan loaned Burma 504 million dollars for the port. Additionally, they forgave a lot of debt for Burma, bringing the total debt forgiveness to about 5 billion dollars this year.

If it were true that Thailand has zero unemployment, then there's no room to expand in Thailand. Where would the workers come from? Even if major manufacturers wanted to work with the Thai government, would they really want to pay twice the wages they pay in Vietnam, or 6 times what they pay in Burma?

Thailand screwed the pooch by cozying up to China and most recently the leader of Iran. Iran is seen as the biggest threat to the West right now, rushing to develop nukes and promising to use them against Israel and the West. It was right after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Chiang Mai recently for some seminar that everything turned against Thailand. That's when The US made its negative comments as did Japan. Then the PM of Thailand had the nerve to ask Japan for a partnership for a port and not only got rebuffed, but the announcement was immediately made that it would go to Burma.

The West is sick of Thailand's attitude that it is entitled to be the hub, while Thailand makes it expensive and difficult to do business. Burma is the new frontier.

The West is also in a hurry to beat China to Burma, cutting China off from the resources.

When Western money starts pouring into Burma as it soon will, and industrial parks are built, Burma will leave Thailand in its dust. Thailand will be back to a third world rice producer. The West is actually angry with Thailand and is more than willing to teach it a lesson. It's more than willing to show Thailand where its money has really come from.

I'm not even addressing Thailand's massive real estate bubble or the fact that is is, as in 1997 financed by Thai banks who are at risk, or the skyrocketing debt of the Thai consumer.

Thailand makes all of its real money from Western investment, and the West has "had it up to here" with Thailand. There are other, cheaper, more business friendly places to go. Ford Motor is pulling all of its operations out of Australia and at the moment repatriating them. 200,000 more Fords will be made in the US. It's cheaper to manufacture in the US than Australia. If Ford would do that, what will they do to Thailand vs Burma? Japan has made its intentions clear. So has the US. Where does that leave Thailand?

It didn't take Korea, Japan or

Germany 50 years to regain first world economic status.

So with the right focus and implementation, no reason why Burma can't have double digit GDp growth soon and ongoing for at least 2 decades,

It isn't important to compare it directly to Thailand, just know that it is likely to boom.

Edited June 1, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[ray23]

Kelly I understand where you are going from. But a lot of money is coming out of the SET and it's going somewhere. My Guess is Myramar. So that 50 billion number may or may not hold long.

The only reason I made money in the set, going in at 600. No one wanted to get into the SET to much violence in the streets. But as the last shots were being fired I became an investor and knew nothing about it. Hooked up with an adviser in the Phucket area. Made friends along the way and we shared information and thoughts, I read everything I could get my hands on about investing, Graham, Buffett, the dummy books. I lived on the computer learning and doing the research on companies. Learned what to look for in a company. Learned Candle stick charting. Technical Analysis.

In the end I made money not because of what I learned but my timing going in. Believe me SET drops back to 600 I'm jumping in. Was there lies going around fake accounting, graft oh heck yes. But I, still made money. In those days it was the wild wild west as much a anywhere else. To check a company I used five different sources. Many outside of Thailand.

At the moment I know there is a MOU between the Thai Set and Myramar What it says I'm not sure.

I believe I have sometime to watch developments and see what I will do. My risk appetite is never anymore then I can afford to lose without changing my life style. So if I make money whoopee. I lose next. I do things on a monthly basis, so ther will never be a huge hunk going down the tubes

The set here was long over due for a correction, that would not happen without western money going out of the system. The finanace minister was begging the BOT to adjust it's policies as the baht got out of hand. It didn't listen. The Fed make it;s announcement then they reduce the interest rates. That to me was arrogant, in that sometimes Thailand over exagerates it's importance in the world and they believe it.

That thought process led to the 97 crash. You wanted to be rich that was the time to buy Thailand not when it is over priced. All the ingredients are here for a crash again. Will it happen i don't know. But, if it does that is where my money is going.

Back log on vehicle sales tow things the vehicles are exported and the first time buyer plan. Honda is building big bikes her now, just bought one for half what I would have had to pay for an import.

Thailand is not dead, the question is will it see the growth it did after 2008. The way things are now I don't believe so.

I wont do a thing until I'm confident I have done the proper research. So would I take Mcdonald's or Myramar. I'm to late on Mcdonald's The potential of growth is not the same.

The U.S.-based company plans to expand its Chinese operations to 2,000 stores by 2013, up from its current 1,300, according to a McDonald's spokeswoman, Betty Tian. It will also hire 50,000 new employees, including 1,000 university graduates for management-training positions.

"McDonald's is expanding faster in China than in any other market in the world," Kenneth Chan, chief executive of McDonald's China, said in a written statement.

You would really invest in Burma?

Yes, I couldn't touch McDonalds stock prices. Buffetts favorite Coca Cola. But, you got to have serious money to plat that game. Of course I'm assuming you will not give me the 50 Billion. If you want to give me 50 Billion I will invest in Mc Donald's But if I have to play on my level Myramar

Just read in the Bangkok Post that foreigners were net sellers of bonds this week. That probably helps to explain the baht. That money is going somewhere.

Edited June 1, 2013 by ray23

[chiangmaikelly]

All of these beliefs that it might take 50 years or whatever for Burma to rise, overlook what the West is doing. So far this year Burma has visited the White House and Obama, and just last Sunday the PM of Japan along with a large delegation of the CEO's of Japan's largest company visited Burma and signed a deal.

The deal is that Japan loaned Burma 504 million dollars for the port. Additionally, they forgave a lot of debt for Burma, bringing the total debt forgiveness to about 5 billion dollars this year.

If it were true that Thailand has zero unemployment, then there's no room to expand in Thailand. Where would the workers come from? Even if major manufacturers wanted to work with the Thai government, would they really want to pay twice the wages they pay in Vietnam, or 6 times what they pay in Burma?

Thailand screwed the pooch by cozying up to China and most recently the leader of Iran. Iran is seen as the biggest threat to the West right now, rushing to develop nukes and promising to use them against Israel and the West. It was right after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Chiang Mai recently for some seminar that everything turned against Thailand. That's when The US made its negative comments as did Japan. Then the PM of Thailand had the nerve to ask Japan for a partnership for a port and not only got rebuffed, but the announcement was immediately made that it would go to Burma.

The West is sick of Thailand's attitude that it is entitled to be the hub, while Thailand makes it expensive and difficult to do business. Burma is the new frontier.

The West is also in a hurry to beat China to Burma, cutting China off from the resources.

When Western money starts pouring into Burma as it soon will, and industrial parks are built, Burma will leave Thailand in its dust. Thailand will be back to a third world rice producer. The West is actually angry with Thailand and is more than willing to teach it a lesson. It's more than willing to show Thailand where its money has really come from.

I'm not even addressing Thailand's massive real estate bubble or the fact that is is, as in 1997 financed by Thai banks who are at risk, or the skyrocketing debt of the Thai consumer.

Thailand makes all of its real money from Western investment, and the West has "had it up to here" with Thailand. There are other, cheaper, more business friendly places to go. Ford Motor is pulling all of its operations out of Australia and at the moment repatriating them. 200,000 more Fords will be made in the US. It's cheaper to manufacture in the US than Australia. If Ford would do that, what will they do to Thailand vs Burma? Japan has made its intentions clear. So has the US. Where does that leave Thailand?

You provide a perspective that expats and chang here cannot. I share your perspective, although I can easily understand why the expats who are invested here in so many ways, personally or professionally, but certainly financially, cannot.

Thais are smug and self-satisfied. They haven't any awareness of such a dangerous and often fatal flaw, hubris. Thais are so used to fahlang coming here to them, they can't see the forest from the trees. Soon it won't matter because both the forest and the trees will be gone. Thais will be left bewildered - and broke.

You have used your post to bash Thailand without offering any factual information. The thread is about Burma rising and Thailand falling. You wrote, "Thais are smug and self satisfied." Attempt to back up your Thai Bashing. You have implied all Thais are smug and self-satisfied. How do you know? You have implied all Thais will be broke. Nonsense. Every reputeable economist in the world today is Thai positive. Direction is all important. Many countries have been downgraded in the past few months in credit ratings including the USA and UK but not Thailand.